Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

• Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 79
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  1. NSW is where the action is. Abbott will probably hang on for as long as they look like gaining seats in the 5-10 range.

    So, I’d expect an all out charm offensive for the the people of NSW.

    Gillard’s rising popularity might also send a message to a few outspoken MPs in NSW to get with the programme or face oblivion (either elctoral or pre selection).

    The further rise in Gillard’s popularity makes a Rudd challenge/ascension less and less likely.

    I’m thinking Abbott will probably just hang on to the leadership till at least the New Year based on these figures. The Xmas break and how the polls are in Feb might be the crunch time.

  2. [Apple Blossom
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 11:04 pm | PERMALINK
    And your expertise is world renowned especially when you come up with figures I like

    And isn’t that enough to make them true? Do you also believe in fairies?]

    Enough to make me dream about the next poll and figures, not sure about fairies think cold hard facts will do at the moment, which is beginning to happen

  3. No, but many seem to have a monopoly on pious hypocrisy. Lateline on this subject doing what ABC current affairs should be doing instead of the usual political gotchas.

  4. Xmas represents public holidays, workplace close-downs (more public holidays!), drunken lunches with family, presents, drunken lunches with friends, boxing day test match, that yacht race people rave about, balmy summer evenings…

    I mean, what’s not to celebrate?

  5. [mm

    i hit on raw nerve i think with that one

    people dont like being reminded why they celerbrate
    christmas]
    You are terribly misinformed. The reason the 25th of December is a public holiday is because it is the eve of the Boxing Day Test.

    This is a tradition that goes back centuries.

  6. [Enough to make me dream about the next poll and figures, not sure about fairies think cold hard facts will do at the moment, which is beginning to happen]

    If you want to predict your own results, that’s fine. But there is not much point withering on about Newspoll being too Coalition leaning because of Murdoch (if you’re involved in that hype). By the end of the day, opinion polls are just opinion polls.

  7. My Say,

    What raw nerve?

    [fiona

    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    but i bet all of you celebrate christmas

    I have always understood that the most important event of the Christian year is Easter.

    But then, I’m just a little ignorant non-Catholic, aren’t I?]

  9. [Gillard’s rising popularity might also send a message to a few outspoken MPs in NSW to get with the programme or face oblivion (either elctoral or pre selection).]
    On this topic, why the hell is Stephen Jones under threat of a pre-selection challenge!?

    He is one of the best back bench MPs in the entire parliament and he is only in his first term when MPs aren’t expected to do much in the chamber! He is the sort of Labor MP who should be pre-selected, yet he is being challenged by some complete has been dullards.

  10. [my say
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    …
    but it would be nice to see the morning news items
    with no links about catholic church]

    It surprises me that there would be a lay catholic that wouldn’t want the place tidied up. It is pretty clear the church is not capable of doing it themselves and that inability is damaging the good work done by the many non priests; good people; that have nothing to do with this, who are now involved in running the many excellent services the church offers.

  13. {Apple Blossom
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 11:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Enough to make me dream about the next poll and figures, not sure about fairies think cold hard facts will do at the moment, which is beginning to happen

    If you want to predict your own results, that’s fine. But there is not much point withering on about Newspoll being too Coalition leaning because of Murdoch (if you’re involved in that hype). By the end of the day, opinion polls are just opinion polls.}
    Thank you for your advice, I agree opinion polls are just “opinion” polls, but it is still nice to seem them slowly turning around, don’t you agree?

  14. Apple Blossom,

    Given that I’m an absolute newbie to Poll Bludger, and therefore shouldn’t even speak to anyone else, I do hope that you will excuse my temerity in suggesting that you might be both wimbling and rathering.

  15. Showson -believe it or not Noreen Hay is still a force within the Illawarra ALP. I understand she initially wanted the seat for her son but he dropped out of the race.

    Should we start a pool on the day that Obeid is suspended from the ALP? I am going for Thursday.

  16. So, it’s 51-49 to the Fibs ? Trending from 55-45 not that long ago.

    Slowly Slowly catch the :monkey:
    I give RAbbott till the end of the year, by Feb, it will be Turnbull as LOTO

  17. is this really a labor blogg well its safe to say it is
    as we only have the occassional lib

    fiona last election, i volunteered for awu to hand out
    workchoices leaflets to workers as they left building sites.stood out side the polling booth for a full 6 hours
    the labor party that i grew up in was union based
    with salt of the earth people,
    there was no airs and graces, about those building sites
    no champagne in site,.
    the reception i got was great, not one knocked back a brochure.

    i expect this time around to work in both electorates

    for jane and for julie,

    thts how i see the labor party ,

    it has nothing to do with my faith at all
    just my faith in the party of the down and out
    giving hope to all

    i really dislike sarcasim,

  18. imacca,

    [Are you actually Annabele Crabb??]

    There’s a large mirror outside my study. I trotted outside, looked myself up and down (in an entirely non-suggestive way) and concluded that, no, I am not Ms Crabb. I remain Dr Fiona, with all the ill that I might do.)

  20. Mari,

    In that respect, yes.

    I think most of us can agree with wanting Labor to be re-elected. I just don’t agree with people’s conspiracy theories about Newspoll or any other poll.

  24. [@TroyBramston: It’s undeniable: Tony Abbott is the most unpopular – depth and length – opp leader in #Newspoll history (since ’85) with -36% approval.]

    There seems to be some confusion about how unpopular Abbott is?

  26. [The former Labor powerbroker, Eddie Obeid, has been suspended from the party tonight following allegations aired during a corruption hearing that have been described as “shocking” by the NSW opposition leader, John Robertson.]
    Who gives a crap what John Robertson thinks! He should’ve resigned from the leadership, the parliament and the party 4 years ago.

  27. [Apple Blossom,

    Given that I’m an absolute newbie to Poll Bludger, and therefore shouldn’t even speak to anyone else, I do hope that you will excuse my temerity in suggesting that you might be both wimbling and rathering.]

    Wow, welcome to the club. Enjoy.

  28. [Apple Blossom
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 11:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari,

    In that respect, yes.

    I think most of us can agree with wanting Labor to be re-elected. I just don’t agree with people’s conspiracy theories about Newspoll or any other poll.]

    That is good, I don’t think I have ever mentioned any conspiracy theories re polls,I think Centre was just playing and I thought it was funny and hopefully foretelling the next poll. BTW how is the study going?

  31. 51-49

    Right on trend.

    Plus the leadership figures.

    🙂

    •••••

    69
    ratsak
    [The good thing about these numbers is that they aren’t quite bad enough yet for Abbott to get the axe.]

    But just bad enough for the distinct sound of axe sharpening to be audible in the distance.

  32. Oakeshott Country@115


    Showson -believe it or not Noreen Hay is still a force within the Illawarra ALP. I understand she initially wanted the seat for her son but he dropped out of the race.

    Should we start a pool on the day that Obeid is suspended from the ALP? I am going for Thursday.

    That staggers me.
    I am amazed she is even a member.
    The Sussex St mafia must be destroyed!

  34. My Say,

    I handed out for eight hours in Kevin Andrews’ electorate back in 2010.

    And I handed out for the Greens – because my local ALP suggested that that might be the best way of maximising at least the Senate vote.

    So, we managed to get a Victorian Green up in the Senate – and I doubt that he took the place of an ALP candidate.

  35. FFS Lateline. Manages to get all the negative angles for the govt on the RC announcement it can. ‘Pressure’ on the government, then an interview with one priest who says the terms are too broad, and then this Brennan clown saying it’s a government ‘on the ropes’. Absolutely incredible.

  36. Apple Blossom@120


    Mari,

    In that respect, yes.

    I think most of us can agree with wanting Labor to be re-elected. I just don’t agree with people’s conspiracy theories about Newspoll or any other poll.

    Good for you Apple Blossom.
    This place just gets crazy with conspiracy theories at times.

  37. I actually celebrate the birth of Horus on December 25 …. which supposedly happened (according to the ancient Egyptian scriptures) some 3000+ year before the beginning of common era. 😆

  38. [That is good, I don’t think I have ever mentioned any conspiracy theories re polls,I think Centre was just playing and I thought it was funny and hopefully foretelling the next poll. BTW how is the study going?]

    Yeah it’s fine, thank you. I have finished for the year. Then I’ll be commencing summer uni to reduce my load in future semesters.

    Do you study?

  39. wimbling and rathering.

    i have never heard of those words

    i dont know if apple blossom has, but apple blossom
    has been part of p b for some years now
    a lovley young lady about the age of your daughter

    fiona.

    hi apple how are your studies going this year.

  40. Shanahan
    “VOTER support for Tony Abbott has dropped to its lowest level since he became Opposition Leader three years ago ….” [wait for it ….here it comes…the insubstantiated fantasy world snide editorial]” … as the Gillard government’s relentless attacks on his character take a toll …the rotten meanies!!”

    Some liberty has been taken with the actual words of St Denis.

  41. [Depends how you want to define it.]

    Indeed. My definition of tanking is vote falling to around 5%.

    Given the sustained efforts over many years by the MSM / OM and the two major parties in characterising the Greens Party as “extreme”, I am happy with 9-10%.

    I expect the anti-Greens attacks to escalate leading up to the next federal election with a consequent drop in the Greens vote, as occurs when the electorate is polarised.

    However, despite best efforts the Greens Party will not be “destroyed” and will prevail 🙂

  43. [bemused
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 11:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Apple Blossom@120

    Mari,

    In that respect, yes.

    I think most of us can agree with wanting Labor to be re-elected. I just don’t agree with people’s conspiracy theories about Newspoll or any other poll.

    Good for you Apple Blossom.
    This place just gets crazy with conspiracy theories at times]

    Thank you also Bemused I think you will be hardpressed to find me ever talking about conspiracy theories re opinion polls

  46. My Say,

    [i dont know if apple blossom has, but apple blossom
    has been part of p b for some years now
    a lovley young lady about the age of your daughter

    fiona.]

    I am suitably chastised and shall never speak to anyone again unless you permit me.

  47. zoidlord@122


    @Yesiree Bob/116

    It’s like the Tortoise and the Hare race.

    And we all know how that race ended up 😀
    Going by some of the above posts, it appears that the narrative might be changing. Newscorpse appears to be focusing on the unpopularity of :monkey: the Simian LOTO

  48. mari@143


    bemused
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 11:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Apple Blossom@120

    Mari,

    In that respect, yes.

    I think most of us can agree with wanting Labor to be re-elected. I just don’t agree with people’s conspiracy theories about Newspoll or any other poll.

    Good for you Apple Blossom.
    This place just gets crazy with conspiracy theories at times


    Thank you also Bemused I think you will be hardpressed to find me ever talking about conspiracy theories re opinion polls

    I didn’t have you in mind. You don’t stand out as one of the crazies and AFAIR your posts are pretty sensible on the whole.

  49. [as the Gillard government’s relentless attacks on his character take a toll]

    Achieved despite the MSM doing its utmost to protect Abbott from criticism. No puff pieces for the PM in that period either.

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