Seat of the week: Boothby

Last held by Labor in 1949, the southern Adelaide suburbs seat of Boothby has been trending in the party’s direction since the early Howard years.

UPDATE (12/11/12): Essential Research has Labor gaining ground for the second week in a row to attain their best position since March last year. They now trail 52-48, down from 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are monthly personal approval ratings, which last time had both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech. Whereas Gillard has maintained her gains, her approval steady at 41% approval and disapproval down two to 49%, Tony Abbott has fallen to his worst net result ever, his approval down four to 33% and disapproval up four to a new low of 58%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011. Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. The redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 0.8% to 0.3% by adding about 10,000 in Aberfolye Park from Mayo in the south, and removing 4000 voters at Myrtlebank to Sturt and 1500 at Edwardstown to Hindmarsh.

Boothby was created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Its coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993. Labor held the seat for the first eight years of its existence, and remained competitive until the Menzies government was elected in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. Former Premier and Liberal Movement figurehead Steele Hall held the seat from 1981 until he was succeeded by Andrew Southcott in 1996.

A positive swing in the difficult 2004 election had Labor hopeful of going one better in 2007, inspiring Right powerbrokers to recruit what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes only managed a 2.4% swing against a statewide result of 6.8% after a series of disastrous campaign performances. Labor again had high hopes at the 2010 election, seeing in the seat a potential gain to balance anticipated losses in Queensland and New South Wales. However, while the Labor swing of 2.2% outperformed a statewide result of 0.8%, perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote in 2007, it fell 0.8% short of what was required.

Andrew Southcott came to the seat at the age of 26 after winning preselection at the expense of fellow moderate Robert Hill, the faction’s leading light in the Senate. Tony Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald wrote that the Right had built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its hated rival Steele Hall, and when denied by his retirement turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate”. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led an unremarkable parliamentary career, finally winning promotion after the 2007 election defeat to the Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. However, he was demoted to parliamentary secretary when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, after backing Malcolm Turnbull in the leadership vote.

Southcott’s preselection for the coming election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was only able to manage 35 votes in the February 2012 party ballot against 195 for Southcott, support for his challenge reportedly evaporating as the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge came to a head. Southcott will again face his Labor opponent from 2010, Annabel Digance, a former nurse and SA Water Board member factionally aligned with the Right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,169 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Boothby”

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  1. GG

    Nope he is not. There are now Tories supporting an Independent Press Regulator. The last thing Murdoch wants.
    Murdoch is only still in his positions by using his power of his own voting block. Every shareholder he did not control voted for his expulsion.

  4. I bet Rupert can hardly wait for the final Leveson Report to come out.

    All that free publicity …

    Now you are being silly.

    You carry too much religious baggage for you to discuss this sensibly. If you can’t handle the heat get out of the kitchen.

  6. Good morning everyone!

    Thanks for the link to Mike Carlton, BK. I notice he too was so over ‘battleground states’. I think I referred to it as the most overused term in US elections.

  7. Guytaur,

    You still have not articulated how or why spending hundreds of $mill on a lawyer’s picnic will achieve anything.

    You’re the advocate. Motherhood statements, glib one liners about ‘truth” and assorted asinine comments really don’t cut it.

    BTW, here’s Hockey and Shorten making sense on this issue.

  9. GG

    Have a look at the company you are keeping. Not savoury company.
    Not even human rights lawyers on your side. This because you are arguing against a legal process to investigate and find out truth.
    You call this a lawyers picnic. Well the truth is the lawyers would not have a picnic if their was no reason to investigate with the powers a Royal Commission provides.
    In other words if there was no cover up (quote of news24) there would be no need to compel evidence. Even at this stage if the Church truly cooperated with police investigations by allowing access to information no Royal Commission would be needed.
    In that respect the ball is in the Church’s court.

  10. In fact, dealing with this thoroughly and openly

    Openly is a good start.

    I just do not understand how the church gets away with its confidentiality payments and agreements.

    In effect ok here is $50,000 and a confidentiality agreement for you to sign and never talk of again to anyone, sign it or you look to years of delay and court facing our barristers and mega millions we can bring to bear.

    Any other person or entity that had forced sex with minors then gave them money to keep quite would face many charges.

    How does the church get away with this?????

  12. Confessions,

    Good morning. Now, I have a bone to pick with you, ma’am.

    Would you please stop sending such bloody cold weather our way? Pretty please?

  15. “@chrisrockozfan: Disappointed in General Petraeus. You would hope that the head of the CIA could have an affair without getting caught. #CIA”

  16. I am of the view that children today are very well informed from an early age. Unfortunately, this was not the case in years gone by. There was silence, shame and secrets. That is no longer the case. A broadranging inquiry is needed to expose any abuse that took place in religious institutions, schools, sporting clubs etc. I am in no doubt that predators deliberately find their way into positions where they can access their prey. As HSO said, it has nothing to do with a person’s access to adult relationships, but everything to do with exercising their power and want over young vulnerable children. The church has no doubt protected these perpetrators, but the same thing has occurred in families, schools, scout clubs, sporting clubs, orphanages, workshops for the disabled, and the list goes on.

  17. Confessions,

    What we are having just now isn’t mild: it’s 12C, and I’m rugged up in my warmest winter woollies. Yes, we have had some pleasant weather – in bits – over the last few weeks, but winter has been painfully long this year.

  18. Guytaur,

    I’ll go with Shorten and Hockey on this one comrade.

    I’m doing alright for someone who apparently believes Jews should be delivered to the ovens, that blacks should be murdered and that inter racial marriage should be a crime. This is despite the fact that I’ve never said or written any such thing.

    BTW, I’m still waiting for your sensible argument about why there should be a RC.

  22. Victoria,

    And I’m looking forward to it – especially because the washing that’s been out since yesterday morning (now exceptionally well-rinsed) might get dry 🙂

  24. GG

    It appears that the police investigating these crimes has been stymied, by his superiors. That stinks. Something does need to be done. I too am thinking that a RC is only going to be a lawyers picnic, but it is necessary to get to the bottom of the crimes and the coverups, so this cannot occur ever again.

  26. Guytaur,

    You’ve given nothing but hollow cliches, motherhood statements and abuse. About all we can expect from the likes of you, I suppose.

  29. GG

    Shorten and Hockey are not quite as much on your side as you think. For one thing, their remarks were made before last night’s interview with the ex priest, who was very frank about the activities in his seminary and the reaction of his superiors when he reported to them.

    IMHO it is not so much the abuse which is the scandal, it is the way the Catholic Church represses or moves around those they know are the abusers.

  31. fiona:

    12 degrees does seem a tad too cold, even for me!

    When I lived in Canberra there was an unwritten rule that you never planted your tomatoes until after Melbourne Cup, owing to frequent, late frosts.

  33. fiona,
    …only 39 sleeps

    He doesn’t seem too worried, actually. I’m the one who’s worried! I just hope that the markers can read his writing. He’s been on a computer keyboard since Pre School! 😀

  34. lizzie

    Our society today is very different. Technology has made it so. Instant messages and information are exchanged momentarily. Young people are no longer naive. Predators got away with their evil because society itself was closed, not just the communities within it.
    To give you an example, my children use the term “pedo” to describe people they view as a little off to them. In other words, they have their radar on at all times. Children did not have this radar on in years gone by because they were never alerted to it. I know this because I seemed to be on my own with that thinking when I was young. Thanks to my mum being so open with us about the dangers of these types of people.
    She would never have allowed any of us to be alone with a priest or any male for that matter, as children. Mind you, she never had any bad experiences herself, but her own mother informed her of these dangers as a child as well.

  35. “@ggreenwald: On MSNBC, Richard Engel just named Petraues’ biographer, Paula Broadwell, as the likely person with whom Petraeus had the affair”

    MSNBC doing well lately

  36. Confessions,

    The same rule applied in Melbourne, though these days the Caulfield Cup is the preferred date. At any rate, my four tomato plants are flourishing, and starting to flower.

    (Note to self: feed them – and plant beans – TODAY.)

  37. A Georgia congressman who attacked the theory of evolution found himself with an unlikely opponent in Tuesday’s US election, when 4,000 voters in one county cast write-in ballots for the 19th century father of evolution, British naturalist Charles Darwin.

    In a September 27 speech, Paul Broun, a physician and member of the US House of Representatives Science, Space and Technology Committee, called evolution and the Big Bang Theory, “lies straight from the pit of hell”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-10/charles-darwin-gets-4000-votes-in-us-election/4364602

    Clearly another deep thinking Republican. Great strategy though from the lecturer, and I love his calling Broun an anti-science fundamentalist.

  38. victoria

    I was never warned about “these people” – would never have known they existed. BUT, like you, I was never alone with a male (even my father). And there is an instinct in children to avoid people who are odd/dangerous. The problem arises when those people have power over a child, especially where the parents are not protective enough.

    I have noticed that there is no longer thought to be the necessity for a nurse to be present when a male doctor examines a woman. Puts me on my guard a bit.

  39. vic,

    Completely agree.

    However, we as usual, have plenty of assertions of cover ups, but no evidence. The accusations always get the attention. The refutations are seldom given the same emphasis.

    Clearly, there are many that hate the Chuch and will latch on to any issue to go the biff. That’s their perogative. However, their never ending abuse directed against the church over extended time really undermines their proclamations of being even handed or non partisan.

    However, evidence, not hearsay must underpin any inquiry. I’m also a great believer in the “innocent until proven guilty” ethos (which clearly makes me a reactionary).

    At this stage enough inquiries are under way. Let’s see what emerges from them.

    As for the policeman who went on TV the other night; my understanding is his job is to collect information and evidence. His job is not to make judgements on the motives of others or proclaim people guilty of non existant crimes like “defending their rights’. If after twenty years of non results perhaps he needs to find another job or maybe the alleged perpetrators are innocent of whatever he was trying to pin on them.

  40. victoria @ 66

    “but the same thing has occurred in families,”

    It may be that some men get married to hide their obsessions with little boys. In such cases the end result would be that the entire family would be affected – the children and the mothers. The men would continue to exercise their horrible acts on their children, the wife usually knowing what’s happening but often saying nothing.

  43. I’m not quite following, the drive here is for a commonwealth royal commission into the application and enforcement of State laws?

    Also i saw a repeat here yesterday of the separation of church and state, an American doctrine that doesn’t apply here, simply because State and Church are not separate from the Queen down. My understanding was the provision in the Commonwealth constitution was to stop the Commonwealth interfering in the State level church – state relationships.

  44. GG

    If after twenty years of non results perhaps he needs to find another job or maybe the alleged perpetrators are innocent of whatever he was trying to pin on them.

    Typical shoot the messenger statement.

    Have to go shopping. Sorry I can’t stay for the debate.

  45. Typical shoot the messenger statement.

    That it might well be, but it might also be that rather than a whole of police conspiracy, he is the one that is a little off. There are even some theories that suggest you go for the obvious simple solution before putting your tinfoil hat on and developing the full conspiracy theory. Just saying.

  48. Lizzie,

    Clearly, I have no proper understanding of the police role in inquiries.

    Perhaps, your greater wisdom can enlighten us all.

  49. It’s been mega, but a new life calls
    BY: GEORGE MEGALOGENIS From: The Australian November 10, 2012 12:00AM
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    FIRST impressions of power can be amusing.

    I was formally introduced to Bob Hawke in the winter of the 17 per cent mortgage rate, 1989. Still new to the parliamentary press gallery, and only three years old as a journalist, I didn’t have too many scoops to my name to warrant prime ministerial attention. But the PM’s press secretary, Barrie Cassidy, said his boss was keen to meet me because I was sitting six games clear on top of the press gallery footy tipping competition.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/its-been-mega-but-a-new-life-calls/story-e6frg72x-1226513945159

  50. GG

    However, we as usual, have plenty of assertions of cover ups, but no evidence.

    Pell has admitted there were cover ups.

    The Archbishop of Sydney accepts that children were abused by priests and that the crimes were covered up by other clergy but believes the Catholic church is no worse than other organisations, News Limited reports.

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