Presidential election minus one day

My tip: Obama to win 303-235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:

I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,468 comments on “Presidential election minus one day”

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  1. “@GayCarBoys: im absolutely loving the libturds pulling their hair out on #AUSpol. ive got my popcorn, and my CokeZero. now have i missed anything”

  2. TT – that’s not sour grapes is it?

    *Obama has won the same number of ‘seats’ as Kennedy won at his election.

    *I don’t think Obama lost any of the “marginal” seats

    *What the media was pontificating “too close to call” was in fact media hype as it turned out and the victory is comprehensive.

    *The results came in at about the same time as for the election 4 years ago.

    *It will be surprising if the total vote for O is not ahead of R. In any event, this cut no ice when Bush won against Gore. So,a win is a win is a win.

    The GOP are in deep trouble as are their media lackies Fox et al.

    Ominous for Abbott I would have thought if international comparisons mean anything – which they probably do not!

  3. “@Wolfie_Rankin: Dear #Republicans moving to Australia. #Taipans #TigerSharks #BlueRingedOctopus #StoneFish #Stingers #RedBack and #Funnelweb #Spiders”

  4. I guess if the Republicans think they’ll win next time by just going in harder and nastier, they’ll come an even bigger cropper in 2016.

    A lesson here for Tony Abbott and his bunch of St. John’s thugs, I think.

  5. Finns

    The footage of Megyn Kelly of Fox doing the walk of shame to ask the real experts if they thought Karl “Turd Blossom” Rove was wRONg was a classic. They were only 99.95% sure and Karl was clinging to the 0.05% like the bitter airhead he is.

  6. [Clive’s PA ‏@PAforClive
    Can hear the #lnp spinning the #US2012election result’s implications for Australia. ‘Far right posturing & policy vacuums can still work’ ]

    [Andrew Elder ‏@awelder
    @PAforClive Mouth-breather Tom Switzer on @abc24 offers all the proof you need. Not a happy bunny and rightly so. ]

  7. Tricot@1352


    *What the media was pontificating “too close to call” was in fact media hype as it turned out and the victory is comprehensive.

    Yep. I mentioned this expression in my article this morning and pointed out that they get away with this expression because “too close to call” can mean either too close to be extremely confident or too close to have the foggiest idea. It was OK to use it in the first context but those using it in the second were just silly fence-sitters because there was very good reason to consider Obama a very warm favourite.

  8. guytaur@1353


    “@Wolfie_Rankin: Dear #Republicans moving to Australia. #Taipans #TigerSharks #BlueRingedOctopus #StoneFish #Stingers #RedBack and #Funnelweb #Spiders”

    And, the most dangerous species of all … REDHEADS!

  9. Space Kidette,

    I have no idea which of my feeble witticisms made you laugh, but am glad that at least one did so.

    What better way in which to end such a beautiful day?

  10. Watching Alexander Downer on ABC24 he is a man of wisdom, balance, integrity and all things good, he should be our Governor General, or President or something that can properly use his remarkable being.

  11. I have enjoyed this kinder gentler thread on the US election and the outcome. What we need now is for Obama to get through his mild stimulus settings and Xi Jingpin to stoke the Chinese economy and Australia and Labor will benefit with an ongoing mining led growth economy.

  12. WeWantPaul@1373


    Watching Alexander Downer on ABC24 he is a man of wisdom, balance, integrity and all things good, he should be our Governor General, or President or something that can properly use his remarkable being.

    YOu know he was born for it.

  13. [Finns

    The footage of Megyn Kelly of Fox doing the walk of shame to ask the real experts if they thought Karl “Turd Blossom” Rove was wRONg was a classic. They were only 99.95% sure and Karl was clinging to the 0.05% like the bitter airhead he is.]
    HA! That was my highlight too!

    It was like when under extreme stress the Foxes started reverting to cannibalism.

  14. DrWom ‏@DrWom

    A friendly note to all #GOP who want to move to Australia now #Obama won #USAVotes #p2 #p21 Via @CalledFelicity pic.twitter.com/xTdwCBzo
    Retweeted by George Bludger

  15. I have been out for the evening and just caught up wih the final result. Good job Nate Silver! He looks to have been spot on. Maybe the USA finally has an answer to Antony Green to she some statistical light on their arcane electoral system.

    As for the result, it is good news for Australia, Labor, and humanity. I still don’t think Obama has done enough, but Romneys only likely achievement would have been war with Iran.

  16. Good result for Obama except for the HoR. The 2m plus popular vote lead will help destroy the “we wuz robbed” obstructionists.
    Hope Obama can get away from the dictates of Imperialsim Inc and free market philosophy.

  17. [Wakefield
    Posted Thursday, November 8, 2012 at 1:34 am | PERMALINK
    Good result for Obama except for the HoR]

    Likely to be 200-235 (7 seat gain to Dems) which is pretty good given the gerrymandering from the Republican State Legislatures after 2010. The trouble is how to get that back in 2014 when the midterm election cycle usually means the White House incumbent party loses House seats.

  18. Obama made a big mistake not putting more weight on the Bill (and Hillary) Clinton contribution to his campaign (and administration) IMHO.

  19. Mod Lib I agree both Clintons were terrific and should have been thanked.

    Wakefield
    [Hope Obama can get away from the dictates of Imperialsim Inc and free market philosophy.]
    I share your hopes and agree this is how many see Obama and the USA. Yet strictly speaking it is NOT pure capitalism. It is worse. would describe Wall Street in the last decade as “gangster capitalism”, not a free market. Matt Taibbi calls it a kleptocracy. Regulators haven’t just been absent. They have been part of the crime. They have actively intervened in favour of the thieves. If it was just a (lawless) free market, there would not have been over six hundred billion in bailout funds.

    Much of what is wrong with Wall Street exists because of government regulation in their favour. Laws on tax and retirement savings forcibly channel billions in pension plans to them in the first place and the money is then fleeced. If it were a real free market workers would at least be free to save the money themselves instead. But they have to pay Wall Street.

    In my view this problem is so bad that unless Wall Street is properly regulated all the laws on retirement savings should be dismantled.

  20. [Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
    Congrats to @KarlRove on blowing $400 million this cycle. Every race @CrossroadsGPS ran ads in, the Republicans lost. What a waste of money.]

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