If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:
I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.
Mod Lib
Result and margin for Sept 2013?
Remember – I am more Fred than Dick Chaney!
Good to know, ML.
It seems half a lifetime ago now, but the Libs once had some fairly good people at the helm. Fred Chaney and Ian Viner did some very good things for aboriginals, all the more praiseworthy because they wouldn’t have got much support on their home turf as Sandgropers.
And there’s a new Dr Siri Paiboun novel by Colin Cotterill coming out in Feb.
Could this day get any better!
Obi should win Florida but vote counting there has stopped for the day.
It would be an interesting calculation to see what proportion of US GNP comes from the red states vs the blue.
Investors,unlike the AFR, have given an Obama win the thumbs up with a strong surge on the ASX when the result became known.
Trump has cleaned his Twitter of calls for revolution and assertions that Obama lost the national vote.
poroti
There should be an overwhelming stench of decay coming from the AFR given its irrelevant and economically irresponsible endorsement of the Tea Party.
Time for Tony Abbott to work on his concession speech.
Will Labor get a lift in this weekends NewsPoll on the back of Obama getting up ??
The republican bloke being interviewed on the Drum with a Democrate looks like he wants to thump the Democrate – who is being sneaky by arguing with facts.
Akin ended up losing by 15%.
He converted a poll lead to a drubbing.
As they say in the classics, the scoreboard will tell you how much you lost by but only your arse can tell you how bad the whipping was.
Bring on more Tea Party losers.
BK
[
It would be an interesting calculation to see what proportion of US GNP comes from the red states vs the blue.]
Before the election I looked at the ranking of US states in education standards. Gobsmacked…NOT to see 9/10 of the worst performing states were Republican. I think it was about 13 out of the 15 top performing states were Democrat.
https://twitter.com/twitter/status/266077606993092608
witter @twitter
One hundred million votes and 31 million Tweets later, Election Day 2012 has come to a close: http://blog.twitter.com/2012/11/election-night-2012.html …
Appears that Bachman hasn’t lost….yet….. 🙁 but its very close. 🙂
[Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:29 pm | PERMALINK
Akin ended up losing by 15%.]
Indeed, the Tea Party has cost the Republican party the senate not once but twice now.
I suspect the Dems have a chance at winning the Nevada Senate seat, but even if they do not they are going to have 54 votes to 46 on the Senate floor….amazing given they were supposed to lose in 2010, and then again in 2012.
[ruawake
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:12 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
Result and margin for Sept 2013?]
Gillard vs. Abbott 52.5 to 47.5 to Coalition, 85 seats to 65
Gillard vs. Turnbull 54.0 to 46.0 to Coalition, 100+ sets
Downer playing sourpuss with aplomb.
SBS reporter says that the GOP is an old white party with a lot of bloodletting to do or wtte
Mod Lib your predictions on Australian federal politics is nothing short of atrocious.
You are fair dinkum deluded 😯
[imacca
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:32 pm | PERMALINK
Appears that Bachman hasn’t lost….yet….. but its very close. ]
Indeed, she might just win this one. However, to be in a close tussle for a House seat when you have been a serious contender for the Republican nomination as a Presidential candidate is a major embarrassment.
Jon Stewart and Steve Colbert should be well worth watching tonight.
imacca@1165
I don’t mind if she is done slowly. 👿
Great TV. Karl Rove refuses to accept Ohio is lost and Obama stays President. Fox News host walks to the stats boys who say Rove is wrong and they are 99.95% sure Obama has won.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/karl-rove-causes-fox-news-chaos-by-challenging-obama-victory-projection/
Mod Lib@1167
Please keep such inconvenient facts to yourself.
Sky just referred to the ‘Royal Couple’ but Ms Parker-Bowles is only a Duchess of Cornwall, so she is not royalty, n’est pas.
Is my interpretation correct?
If so, could someone from Sky be beheaded for lese majeste, or something like that?
How humiliatement for Oz to have a Ms Parker-Bowles duchessing us.
oh, how could i forget, another BIG loser of POTUS election is the grand OM AFR. It endorsed Romney.
Diogenes@1174
Hopefully abbott will recruit him as campaign director for 2013.
They would be a great fit.
According to Dolly, Israel is one very important country in the world
Mob Lib
Keep predicting you will eventually become the Chris Richardson of PB. Predict early an’ often. 😛
Who let Mod Lib in to infect the US Election blog with his sexist anti-Gillard BS?
[ How humiliatement for Oz to have a Ms Parker-Bowles duchessing us. ]
The political cartoonists have been very restrained, so far anyway. They are not known for their politeness usually.
The Finnigans
[
oh, how could i forget, another BIG loser of POTUS election is the grand OM AFR. It endorsed Romney.]
Read it and 😆 😆 😆
[Editorial
Romney the better hope for US revival ]
http://afr.com/p/opinion/romney_the_better_hope_for_us_revival_sRlIpUFO7pqUp9ycCcaMzK
A NEW BIG loser has just emerged fro the POTUS election Dolly “Lord Baghdad” Downer who is so ungracious on Obama’s win on #TheDrum
[It would be an interesting calculation to see what proportion of US GNP comes from the red states vs the blue.
Before the election I looked at the ranking of US states in education standards. Gobsmacked…NOT to see 9/10 of the worst performing states were Republican. I think it was about 13 out of the 15 top performing states were Democrat.]
poroti
So hereinafter we can refer to the Republican states as the “Red Rump”.
Ahh yes Chris Richardson of Access Economics:
– Unemployment in Australia to have an 8 in front of it because of the GFC?
– Australia to fall into a near certain recession because of the GFC?
WRONG and WRONG.
I don’t want any advice from Access Economics.
And they will be wrong again when Swan delivers a surplus. 😉
BK
[So hereinafter we can refer to the Republican states as the “Red Rump”.]
Red Rump eh ? I’m thinking…… 😉
[C@tmomma
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:47 pm | PERMALINK
Who let Mod Lib in to infect the US Election blog with his sexist anti-Gillard BS?]
To make a prediction that Gillard is going to lose the next election is sexist is it?
Says it all really….
@Mod Lib
Keep your day job.
of course I never wavered even for a moment. I never doubted Obama would get up. Not once. Yay Rosemour.
Yeah, fuacking hell why not? – http://twitpic.com/bansc0/full
I hope all the Greens backed Green Moon yesterday 😆 😆
[ruawake
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:45 pm | PERMALINK
Mob Lib
Keep predicting you will eventually become the Chris Richardson of PB. Predict early an’ often]
Where are your predictions?
but…I’ve got this terrible creepy sense that Abbott is going to romp in next year……
The New York Times interviews the Presidential Election winner:
http://www.nytimes.com/video/2012/11/07/us/politics/100000001889803/nate-silver-on-election-results.html
@Rosemour/1194
Please keep your nightmares in your bag, no need to hit the rest of us with it.
[Centre
Posted Wednesday, November 7, 2012 at 6:39 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib your predictions on Australian federal politics is nothing short of atrocious.
You are fair dinkum deluded]
What was your prediction for the 2010 election again?
Mine was 73-73-4
Obi crawling towards a 50.0 % plus popular vote. Just nudged up from 49.8 to 49.9.
[Where are your predictions?]
I only bet on sure winners. 😛
One of the life-skills that – apparently – was not on the “to do” list of any of the select institutions that Dolly (“Fishnets” Downer) of Baghdad was the fine art of acting graciously when one, or one’s choice, comes second.
A similar lacuna can be observed in some – but naturally not all – of the graduates of that fine old institution, St. John’s College, The University of Sydney.