GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.
The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).
UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.
UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.
Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.
SYDNEY STATE BY-ELECTION, NEW SOUTH WALES October 27, 2012 # % Swing 2PP % Alex Greenwich (Independent) 17,687 47.3% 21,283 63.7% Shayne Mallard (Liberal) 11,543 30.9% +5.3% 12,120 36.3% Chris Harris (Greens) 6,616 17.7% +4.9% Glenn Wall (Independent) 825 2.2% Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic) 724 1.9% +0.8% Labor -11.3% Formal 37,395 97.2% -0.6% Informal 1,062 2.8% +0.6% Enrolment/Turnout 61,428 62.6% -21.3%
Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY ELECTION October 20, 2012 Seats # % Swing Liberal 8 (+2) 86,032 38.9% +7.3% Labor 8 (+1) 85,991 38.9% +1.5% Greens 1 (-3) 23,773 10.7% -4.9% Others 0 (-) 25,376 11.5% -3.9% Formal 221,172 96.5% +0.3% Informal 7,953 3.5% -0.3% Enrolment/Turnout 256,702 89.3% -1.1%
Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.
Parents need to think long and hard about handing over control of their children.
Faith is not a good reason.
poroti
Don’t worry about ‘Marseillaises’ its self = more about him being out tonight in the north with a Brumbies jersey on – son-in-law is a big one thank god.
This little black duck,
Yep can’t wait to have them set up and see how they work.
Thanks again for your advice
ru
[And they get away with it for so long because the internal investigation shuffles them to another diocese.]
Absolutely. Often in another state, hence the need for a national Royal Commission.
Joe6pack@3429
Hi Joe.
I checked the specs and it looks like it will do all you want.
zoidlord@3441
Really ?
I have loathed newman from the first moment I saw him on the TV.
Clive is looking after Clive. He will make whatever noises for whatever side helps.
What else is there to understand.
Base-bats at the ready on election day always looked a disaster.
Those who voted LNP and who have now been sacked are living that disaster as are others who stayed with Labor.
They were conned as Romney tried this week.
Obama has been disappointing, but the yanks metaphorically dodged a bullet by giving Romney (and Fox etc) the finger.
Diogenes@3452
Sometimes another country (e.g. Mary Mackillop’s efforts).
ABC News gave it a good unbiased showing for the ISP Filtering – only a couple of words from Turnbull.
dave,
I’m surprised none of the political commentators have written a story on the phenomenon of people being stampeded into voting out a government without ever knowing what they’re getting themselves in for.
I wonder if the people of NSW and QLD will think deeply enough about this and realise the media have been taking them for a ride.
The words of a good man.
[FatherBob @FatherBob
@jbmoloney Needs Royal Commission. Roman model of Catholicism, one of many models, btw, seems to have acquired hubris.]
Neither Rudd nor Gillard have called any royal commissions. Howard did ones on AWB and building industry. Achieved jack shit with both.
The most powerful inquiries are the more pointed ones. ICAC at the moment which may achieve the colonic irrigation of the NSW ALP which it cannot arrange for itself (if Sartor gives evidence anything like his book, it will be entertaining). And the one on TV on Sunday night with Bernie Banton and Greg Combet – the Jackson special commission of inquiry into James Hardie.
cud chewer@3457
CC – The main print media are the loudest cheer squad for abbott. Why would they write such a story?
Evidence of that is all over the place. Not that its all that new.
What IS new is that they are being increasingly, called on it, found wrong and are being mocked about it while their business model remains on a sure path to bankruptcy.
The media controlled the microphone, so to speak for so long, they cannot believe their power and influence is ebbing away. Really its gushing away.
Their credibility is shot to ribbons and the game is up.
Still sad to see the likes of Mega go. And some others.
Diog, when do i see my $500? 👿
AWB was a still birth because of its narrow terms of reference.
HSO,
Do you have proof of the corollary of your assertion, that allowing sexual relationships with Adult Women would NOT lead to a decrease in paedophilia in the Catholic Priesthood?
Notwithstanding the point made by Diogenes that paedophilia in the priesthood perpetuates because of lack of action on the part of the Catholic Church itself.
I just can’t see the point you’re trying to make. To me it seems something like, oh well, fathers abuse their sons and daughters, so what’s the point anyway in seeking to bring about the end of Celibacy in the Catholic Priesthood, and encouraging them to have healthy sexual relationships and families, it’ll keep happening no matter what you do???
This would be funny if it weren’t so pathetic. People think this guy should be PM?
[LISA WILKINSON:
But the truth is that the carbon tax is only contributing a small amount to those price rises. It’s only been in since July 1 and for these proposals that the Government is putting forward to work, it does need cooperation from state governments to deregulate power prices. Now, Queensland Premier Campbell Newman has already said no. We’re getting similar indications from the NSW Coalition Government. Is that because it’s actually politically convenient to keep those prices high leading up to the federal election and just keep blaming it on the carbon tax?
TONY ABBOTT:
No one wants to see prices high. Everyone wants to see prices down. But the most practical thing the Commonwealth could do right now to get power prices down is to take off the carbon tax and, you know, the whole point of the carbon tax, Lisa, is to raise power prices. The point I keep making is every time your power bill goes up, the Prime Minister has a smile on her face because that is the carbon tax just doing its job.
LISA WILKINSON:
Alright. Well, you’ve already promised that, should you be elected Prime Minister, you will get rid of that carbon tax. That leaves you 79 per cent of those price rises you’ve got to play with. Can you guarantee that an Abbott government will bring energy prices down beyond taking off the carbon tax?
TONY ABBOTT:
Well, that’s a very, very good start. That is a very good start and we would have the ACCC out there making sure that businesses did not profiteer once the carbon tax was off.
LISA WILKINSON:
Ok, but you still haven’t answered my question. How much will you bring down energy prices beyond taking off the carbon tax?
TONY ABBOTT:
Well, we will do vastly better than the Labor Party, Lisa, because there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead…
LISA WILKINSON:
You’re still not answering my question, Mr Abbott.
TONY ABBOTT:
But, Lisa, I’m saying there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead and when I say that, I’m telling the truth.
LISA WILKINSON:
So should I get from that that you don’t actually have a plan on how to bring prices down beyond the carbon tax, beyond getting rid of the carbon tax, Mr Abbott?
TONY ABBOTT:
That’s a very, very good start, Lisa.
LISA WILKINSON:
Ok, well, I’ll have to take it that you don’t have a plan. Unless you’re going to put one forward, it doesn’t look like you’ve got a plan, Mr Abbott.
TONY ABBOTT:
Lisa, the plan starts with getting rid of the carbon tax.
LISA WILKINSON:
Ok. I think you’ve answered the question.]
The man is a twit.
Finns
A week is a long time in politics.
A year is forever.
Evening everyone.
[Neither Rudd nor Gillard have called any royal commissions. Howard did ones on AWB and building industry. Achieved jack shit with both.]
The AWB RC failed because of crap ToR. I was hopeful Labor would initiate a more meaningful RC when it came to office, but majorly disappointingly, Rudd avoided it.
It would seem that the confessional has a lot to answer for.
My Say,
[RUMMELL WHAT MAKES YOU AN AURTHORITY ON THIS SUBJECT]
The same thing that makes you an authority. An opinion. In this instance, I agree with Rummel. This nonsense has gone on long enough and it’s time to attack the root of the problem. That root is at the heart of the Catholic church, whether you like it or not.
By the way, I’m Catholic and spent 10 years in the Marist Brothers system (Pagewood/Daceyville). I also have a cousin who is a priest, so I have skin in the game. I’m lucky in that nothing happened to me. But it could have. Turns out there was more than one rock spider among the brothers during my time there(60s/70s).
Keep your head in the sand all you like. I think this train is headed downhill and the brakes aren’t working. Fortunately, it may pick up the likes of Abbott and Hockey as collateral damage. The real damage needs to be done to the monsters that committed the crimes and the bigger monsters who protected them. Here’s hoping…
Do you like movies? Then get Mystic River, starring Sean Penn. The Catholic church takes a real bruising in that one.
BK
SA has taken first day points I think.
[LISA WILKINSON:
Ok, well, I’ll have to take it that you don’t have a plan. Unless you’re going to put one forward, it doesn’t look like you’ve got a plan, Mr Abbott.]
There is no Plan B insofar as an electoral strategy is concerned, much less a plan for a policy.
Good work by Wilkinson too btw.
george’s latest.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/georgebludger/8165937633/in/photostream
rwawake@3464
[ The man is a twit. ]
Slight correction – The man is an increasingly irrelevant twit.
[Prime Minister Julia Gillard is claiming a first in regional diplomacy, after securing a joint meeting with the leaders of Indonesia and East Timor.]
FFS ABC she is not claiming anything – it is a first.
Well said Roy Orbison!!
Still in a world of pain –
[ Recriminations were flying in Republican circles on Thursday as Mitt Romney wound up his campaign, thanking donors and staff, after his defeat at the polls on Tuesday.
His Boston headquarters and field offices across the country were being cleared and an office in Washington where preparations had been under way to prepare for transition to the White House if he had won was ordered to be cleared by Friday.
The security detail that followed him around for months has been withdrawn and his codename Javelin has been de-activated.
The Boston Globe disclosed that Romney had planned to celebrate a win over Obama on Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning with an eight-minute fireworks display over Boston harbour.
Instead, after Romney conceded, the fireworks were unloaded from barges and taken back to the organising company’s store in New Hampshire. ]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/08/romney-donors-republican-strategists-blame
[It would seem that the confessional has a lot to answer for.]
I can’t recall whether it was the Census data in general, or just for WA, but for the first time in Censuses, the ‘no religion’ option has yielded the highest response, and catholicism has slipped behind one of those anglican type religions.
[BK
SA has taken first day points I think.]
J6p
Absolutely!
I feel it will be a long, barren summer for the Aussies.
TONY ABBOTT:
Well, that’s a very, very good start. That is a very good start and we would have the ACCC out there making sure that businesses did not profiteer once the carbon tax was off.
The man can’t even claim that as the truth. John Roskam let the cat out of the bag today(as it increasingly seems that what the IPA wants, the IPA gets from the Liberal Party), when he said he wants to get rid of the ACCC.
Obama now an even bigger Gillard fan!
\http://www.news.com.au/national/obama-praises-gillards-sexism-speech/story-fndo4eg9-1226513851310
[A week is a long time in politics.
A year is forever.]
yep Diog, i am going to do you slowly
This is the type of outcome that our Labor Government would have been hoping for.
Another reflex ‘No’ from you know who.
Another wedge –
[ An influential group of mainstream Tories, including four former cabinet ministers, have opened the door to a limited form of statutory press regulation, warning that proposals being put forward by the newspaper industry “risk being an unstable model destined to fail”.
The letter, published in the Guardian and signed by 42 MPs and two peers, signals a potential shift in the politics of media regulation because it is the first suggestion that the Conservative party is not going to respond to the Leveson inquiry with a monolithic opposition to legal regulation of the industry. Lord Justice Leveson is due to publish the inquiry’s findings at the end of this month and ferocious lobbying of No 10 is under way from both sides in the argument.
The signatories believe their letter may show Downing Street that a crossparty consensus on media reform is possible at Westminster. “No one wants our media controlled by the government but, to be credible, any new regulator must be independent of the press as well as from politicians,” the letter says. ]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/nov/08/leveson-inquiry-curb-press-excesses-tories
ruawake @3473
I’m not sure why anyone should be getting excited about a meeting between Ms Gillard, President Yudhoyono and PM Gusmao. It’s not as if she has pulled off a big diplomatic coup by getting them to talk to each other: the Timorese and Indonesians have been getting on just fine in recent years, and Yudhoyono and Gusmao met in Dili in May this year, during a visit in which SBY went to Santa Cruz cemetery (and the Indonesian military cemetery on the other side of the street). See http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/82226/yudhoyono-meets-with-gusmao. The ABC’s mistake is really to believe that such a meeting on the edge of a multi-lateral forum is even newsworthy.
Tony Abbott’s worst nightmare is coming true – http://twitpic.com/banrlg/full
fess,
I think you may be wrong with your assertion.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/godless-overtake-anglicans-as-hinduism-doubles-20120621-20pt0.html
Regarding THAT speech
[President Obama wasn’t the first leader to mention the speech during Ms Gillard’s current overseas trip.
In Laos for a meeting of Asian and European leaders it was raised by French President Francois Hollande and Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt.
“The president of France congratulated me on the speech, as did the Prime Minister of Denmark, and some other leaders, just casually as I’ve moved around, have also mentioned it to me,” Ms Gillard said]
Of course THAT speech is the one that the Australian MSM thought might turn out to be a negative for her politically. Dunces.
Why is that only Lisa Wilkinson can interview Abbott properly (saver perhaps one leigh sales, and one kerry interview)? The OM should be ashamed of themselves. Abbott reveals himself to be utterly vacant when pressed on any issue. I cant believe he doesnt even appear to do a little homework and talk in a bit more depth. He has nothing but the slogans
C@tmomma
If Tony Abbott was stretched between Sydney and Woywoy as the crow flies between to semis he would still be crooked.
People shouldn,t hope for him to be replaced before the next election, he will be PMJGs Romney.
Anyhow i think the neither party will change leaders now and nor should they. Too much has been invested and the Libs have No way of doing it after their trashing of labors procedures.
This is probably the election Australia really does have to have to weed out the true wackos.
BTW I would love to see the PM call a royal commission into sexual abuse by the clergy. I see that O’Farrell has sneakily called his enquiry into the conduct of the POLICE not the Church. Pathetic
Seven days to go and Tony abbott will be facing a court!
GG:
Actually I got it round the wrong way. No religion highest in WA, but catholics slip behind anglicans in my own local government statistical area.
[Why is that only Lisa Wilkinson can interview Abbott properly…]
Because she is sitting in for Karl (thanks for the loan Alan)and Abbott cannot weasel out of his Friday appearance on brekky telly.
yes Tom, all about the context. The PM was defending Slipper so the speech didnt count. I saw an AP report that mentioned the speech the other day that mentioned the number of YouTube views on the first day, rather than the total views to date. Why would anyone report it that way?
Andrew:
[Why is that only Lisa Wilkinson can interview Abbott properly]
There are probably others (Emma Alberici for eg), but because Abbott is VERY selective in what media outlets/interviewees get to interview him, he ends up in mainly friendly interviews.
fess,
Your area is clearly not reflective of the Nation as a whole.
Here we go. Didn’t take long, did it?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-09/church-to-release-internal-files-on-sex-abuse/4364156
confessions@3495
Increasingly its obvious that he is terrified of stuffing up in these interviews. Bunny in the spotlight.
He has very limited ‘lines’ at his command to respond with and when closely questioned all he can do is repeat what he has already said.
He knows the gig is about up – unless Labor make a huge mistake somewhere along the way. Soon.
GG:
Undoubtedly. The no religion response in my area is a good 5% higher than the state.
We also have a large Dutch reformed church community here, such that they get represented in the ABS quick stats for our local govt area. I have no idea what Dutch reformed church people believe in, but they are out there.
fess,
I’m just glad those Dutch are reformed from whatever crime they committed.