GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.
The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).
UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.
UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.
Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.
SYDNEY STATE BY-ELECTION, NEW SOUTH WALES October 27, 2012 # % Swing 2PP % Alex Greenwich (Independent) 17,687 47.3% 21,283 63.7% Shayne Mallard (Liberal) 11,543 30.9% +5.3% 12,120 36.3% Chris Harris (Greens) 6,616 17.7% +4.9% Glenn Wall (Independent) 825 2.2% Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic) 724 1.9% +0.8% Labor -11.3% Formal 37,395 97.2% -0.6% Informal 1,062 2.8% +0.6% Enrolment/Turnout 61,428 62.6% -21.3%
Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY ELECTION October 20, 2012 Seats # % Swing Liberal 8 (+2) 86,032 38.9% +7.3% Labor 8 (+1) 85,991 38.9% +1.5% Greens 1 (-3) 23,773 10.7% -4.9% Others 0 (-) 25,376 11.5% -3.9% Formal 221,172 96.5% +0.3% Informal 7,953 3.5% -0.3% Enrolment/Turnout 256,702 89.3% -1.1%
Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.
davidwh
[chris murphy @chrismurphys
The whole town’s talking about the Pyne texts, the Pyne texts,the Pyne texts, the whole town’s talking about the Pyne texts…#auspol ]
a bit more, we await the actual content…
Suspending Clive Palmer is Gold – he is a classic loose cannon and for once there may even be some help for the ALP on a Newspoll weekend.
Dio I think Palmer said he hasn’t made his mind up about Newman. He just thinks the DP and Treasurer are idiots who should be sacked. Give him time and I’m sure he will find something to hate Newman for.
my say,
The Anglican Church, a much smaller communion than the Roman Catholic Church, can afford to support Priests, their wives and families. So why couldn’t the Catholic Church?
The Catholic Church may starve Parish Priests of funds to run their parish, but that doesn’t mean that the Catholic Church is itself bereft of funds and couldn’t afford to support Priests if they had families.
CO
What is more all happening in Qld worst State for Labor at moment.
[“These books have been cooked by the biggest crooks who’ve ever occupied office in the State of Queensland and they need to be accountable.”]
The bar is set pretty high in the Qld political crooks stakes. Clive knows ‘cos it helped him make a motza.
victoria
Don’t be precious, mate. Just like you, what I had to say was to my say, not you. It’s no use deceiving oneself the abuse stopped 30 years ago. But, I’m sorry you took offence.
How can mothers and fathers, brothers and sisters, grandparents stand up and continue to protect the church when there have been tens of thousands of people come forward with their tales of abuse. How can they say I didn’t see it so it didn’t happen, it didn’t happen to me so it couldn’t be true.
Across this world their are families that have been destroyed by the perversions of priests and nuns, in graveyards across this world are the remains of people that ended their lives because of the actions of these perverts. And, still across the globe we have people saying that in couldn’t have happened because it didn’t happen to them, all the nuns and priests they know are nice and do such good work. Well, I never cowered in dark cellars afraid of the bombing in London, can I say it didn’t happen, I didn’t help excavate the killing fields in Cambodia, can I say it didn’t happen.
It is time the governments of this country stood up to religions and told them that not only are they answerable to their own particular flavours of an imaginary being, but they are answerable to the laws of the land.
Churches should not be able to investigate their own, particularly in such serious matters. Childrens childhoods are being stolen by abuse, adults lives are destroyed because of this abuse. Sticking your head in the sand and saying it didn’t happen to you or your brothers or people you know does not change the foul stench that hangs over the churches.
For religion and the churches to be able to remain in a society it must comply with the societies rules, norms and laws.
It is time for a royal commission into all of the churches, their secrets, their financial position and all the things they have covered up and continue to cover up.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
RT @QPublicServant: Qld’s new health boards are Newman’s sand bags… Designed to absorb bullets while the culprits hide behind them #qldpol
@mediaguardian: State role required to curb press excesses, Tories urge PM http://t.co/T3PcCjnV #Leveson
When a LNP Premier faces protests in Kingaroy you know he is rooned.
The Borg will assimilate.
My say doesn’t need GG or any other tyke to help her. Bogot? love it!
Have a Chat 3409 A well thought out comment, which I agree with
C tomma
really
Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
4000+ signatures on the petition to #SaveEventide. Help keep it growing! Sign the it here http://bit.ly/RZlAOM
Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
A #SaveEventide march across Ted Smout Bridge has been organised for 7am, Sat 24 Nov. Community BBQ to follow
Wayne Swan @SwannyDPM
Claims by @KerryMillardMP & @theqldpremier that Eventide fails safety standards is false. Their accreditation: http://bit.ly/QsK87s
outside left
Yeah. I thought it was a typo. Guess its like the word qwot. Used by Alan Dean Foster in his book “Orphan Star”.
Fantastic word
i actually did that on purpose
. i am quite surprised at other denomations who seem to think they know the working of parish life.
there is not much i dont know about the institutions and how they run
the no alls here amaze me
well have a lot to do,
trying to get a lace jacket made for my daughter for christmas,
i love lace patterns as they are good for the brain this one has 20 rows to the pattern and knitted in sill/wool
“@kimmaree_tweet: niiiiice #ABCNews reporting President Obama gave PM Gillard a call last night to say thanks for the message of support!”
C@tmomma and others who think celibacy has some direct link with paedophilia in terms of allowing marriage would prevent it.
It doesn’t. Biological fathers, married to women, sexually abuse their own children.
Having worked in this area for a long period of time, I can assure you of this. There is also a lot of research to back this up.
The psychopathology that drives abuse of children is not related to access to sexual relationships with adult women.
Even the Nationals “get it” .
[
Earlier today, NSW Nationals MP Troy Grant…… said it was time for Cardinal George Pell to “fall on his sword” as Archbishop of Sydney, because the church had never managed to put the interests of victims before its clergymen.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/premier-orders-inquiry-into-church-child-sex-coverup-20121109-292hz.html#ixzz2Bi9IweXB
he he he i tweeted (on 1/11) to @rupertmurdoch You know deep down, Romney hasnt made a convincing case for a change. Obama will romp in.
[Clive really hates Newman so he can’t be all bad.]
Diog, you meanz like i hate you 😆
My tweeter week, 25 Good Mornings to @lynlinking 2 STFUs to KRudd, 125 insults to Abbott & still havent updated them BISONs (shame, shame)
[Emma Alberici @albericie
Tonight: an update on last night’s story about the NSW police & clergy abuse Our interview is with a whistleblower Catholic Priest #lateline ]
I forgive Lateline for a lot doing these stories.
HaveAchat@3408
This study (pdf) suggests that their loyalty to the Church actually increases each time the Clergy rapes a child.
They interview with Abbott today was sad, the poor man has run out of stuff and has become a caricature of his former self.
He has become the joke.
@mashable: In the annals of geeky space experiments, it’s going to be hard to top this one http://t.co/HabiWE36
Thanks to all that provided valuable advice regarding new laptops. The decision was Asus A54C-SX368V. Seems they will fit the bill adequately,&should arrive at the store next week. Thanks again.
Ms Tarr relays
CTARR and son-in-law in transit for (too much to drink) and Stade de France on Saturday afternoon.
Notice the doublespeak from the Qld Treasurer.
[Mr Palmer said Queensland’s real net debt was $11 billion and nothing like the $65 billion flagged by the government.
But Mr Nicholls said his figures would stand up to scrutiny.
At the end of 2011/12, Queensland was $62.6 billion in gross debt, with $32.6 billion held by government-owned corporations and $30 billion in the general government sector, he said.]
The old Gross Debt rubbish is rolled out by Timmy.
HAVE A CHAT
put simply
they either dont know, or they have passed on.
you make it sound so simplistic
Diogenes@3400
Clive help put newman into power with money and use of aircraft etc.
What went wrong, what didn’t Clive get that he expected?
Clive would be looking after Clive.
But great to see them fighting.
harry
yes you make a very educated comment
[But great to see them fighting]
The LNP don’t have factions. 😆
CTar1
[CTARR and son-in-law in transit for (too much to drink) and Stade de France on Saturday afternoon.]
What the lucky ducks will be amongst tomorrow !!
[Stade de France: Les plus puissantes Marseillaises]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hyeVAihyT8
as i said musrum most would be long gone.
but u all chat amoung your selves
what ever makes you happy
What does being suspended as a member of the LNP mean? Do they repay the donations of the suspended person?
HSO
These predators often find their way into positions of trust such as the priesthood
Joe6pack,
A new computer is always exciting, one way or another. Good luck!
@dave/3433
It seems you can never know someone’s dark side unless you turn to their side.
(I was trying to phrase it different – but can’t put into words).
HSO
I saw some research (which has been disputed) which said that priest were no more likely than the general population to be child molesters (there are an awful lot of kids abused by in laws, second partners, and parents).
However, when a priest was a paedophile they had a much larger number of victims than the “in home” paedophiles.
Harry “Snapper” Organs@3419
It would not prevent it, sure. But do you think it wouldn’t reduce it?
I should add that if priests are no more likely than others to be paedophiles but are worse long-term offfenders, it’s not the celibacy thing that’s the problem; it’s the fact they get away with it for so long.
As a Catholic, I applaud those posters on PB who support a Royal Commission.
There are many in the church who just cant accept the shadow of abuse ,
They think they know.
There are none as deaf as those who will not listen.
As a Catholic, I applaud those posters on PB who support a Royal Commission.
There are many in the church who just cant accept the shadow of abuse ,
They think they know.
There are none as deaf as those who will not listen.
[Clive help put newman into power with money and use of aircraft etc.]
You mean, CanDo didn’t tell Clive about his job cuts, either?
Oh no!
[I should add that if priests are no more likely than others to be paedophiles but are worse long-term offfenders, it’s not the celibacy thing that’s the problem; it’s the fact they get away with it for so long.]
And they get away with it for so long because the internal investigation shuffles them to another diocese.
ruawake,
I didn’t see the interview, what did he say?
Clive has taste, he only lent his ‘plant to The Borg.