GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.
The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).
UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.
UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.
Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.
SYDNEY STATE BY-ELECTION, NEW SOUTH WALES October 27, 2012 # % Swing 2PP % Alex Greenwich (Independent) 17,687 47.3% 21,283 63.7% Shayne Mallard (Liberal) 11,543 30.9% +5.3% 12,120 36.3% Chris Harris (Greens) 6,616 17.7% +4.9% Glenn Wall (Independent) 825 2.2% Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic) 724 1.9% +0.8% Labor -11.3% Formal 37,395 97.2% -0.6% Informal 1,062 2.8% +0.6% Enrolment/Turnout 61,428 62.6% -21.3%
Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY ELECTION October 20, 2012 Seats # % Swing Liberal 8 (+2) 86,032 38.9% +7.3% Labor 8 (+1) 85,991 38.9% +1.5% Greens 1 (-3) 23,773 10.7% -4.9% Others 0 (-) 25,376 11.5% -3.9% Formal 221,172 96.5% +0.3% Informal 7,953 3.5% -0.3% Enrolment/Turnout 256,702 89.3% -1.1%
Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.
[Don’t forget that the NSW Police Commissioner is a devout Catholic. Maybe this is why Det Insp Fox is so irate?]
It was implied on Sydney radio today that the police were unwilling to act against those implicated in this story for the very reason you outline above.
What will Clive Palmer do now? Suspended from his beloved LNP
my say
You asked about video relating JG being asked about the carbon tax before the election. I will see if i can find it online
Rummell –
Either way its cut – the issue is the responsibility for Pell to address here in Australia. He is the Cardinal.
The one thing, in fairness is that I understand the Church now refers all these matters to the Police.
But matters from years ago keep coming out and as someone bought up Catholic I believe the vast majority of the case are genuine.
Then there is the issue of clergy and church members who had nothing to do with any of this – they are shattered as well.
But the victims have to come first.
[He/She doesn’t allow nor disallow you to do anything.]
Well, what is God’s will, then?
zoid
I think we are learning why Palmer is building Titanic II. So he can sink the LNP with it. Has to be big enough to do the job.
I think Bob and Clive would make an excellent combination.
[3346
guytaur
Posted Friday, November 9, 2012 at 6:21 pm | PERMALINK
“@Pollytics: RT @TrisD: Palmer suspended. The civil war has along way to go”]
Palmer for speaker 🙂
aommma
and pray tell me who would pay their wages as parish priests they do exactly earn much, so i suppose the wife works or the priests teach in school
dear o me i cannot see it sky rocket
another opinion that shows there is no idea
the average age of church goesers would be 60/70
gosh you lot make me laugh
Palmer will be perfect to fill the chair as speaker.
My say
This is the article relating to the presser JG did just before the election. I cant find the actual footage though
http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/julia-gillard-my-carbon-price-promise/story-fn5tar6a-1225907552000
@Simon_Cullen: Wow. ‘Hurricane’ over Hobart http://t.co/rStRuaeD
dave is spot on
there is good and bad in every area of society
\unfortuanatley there is also bogots
“@612brisbane: We can confirm that @clivefpalmer has been suspended from the LNP, effective immediately. A decision on his future will be made on Nov 23”
Sixteenth century discussion about celibacy seem to have been a little more forthright than today. This from Martin Luther in 1552 arguing against it.
[Nature never lets up………,”we are all driven to the secret sin. To say it crudely but honestly, if it doesn’t go into a woman, it goes into your shirt.” ]
http://tiny.cc/obwhnw
Was this the link you were after Mysay
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ApCwoj35d3M
thanks victoira.
there is this very annoying liberal i know i wanted to send
it to.
rummel he has to get elected first and then he could fill the chair. It would probably have to be a Labor/Katter coalition government though.
my say
I know its a typo. However I think you have come up how the name for one of the monsters in Harry Potter came to be.
Boggarts. bogots.
Typos can be useful.
“Well, what is God’s will, then?”
Does anyone know for sure?
rummel
No wonder you annoy my say. That youtube video is just a soundbite. You understand context” dont you!!
“@Pollytics: Have this feeling that Clive might unleash the 4 horseman of the apocalypse on the LNP. Lot’s of skeletons in those cupboards”
Where’s Greensborough Growler when you need him? The Catholic Church is in deep trouble and needs saving.
rummel he has to get elected first and then he could fill the chair.
Fill the chair? He would overflow it!
rummel@3360
The chair would be very full.
[Where’s Greensborough Growler when you need him? The Catholic Church is in deep trouble and needs saving.]
Good one!
Humphrey Bogots?
davidwh @3303,
When did the PM rule out a RC and can you link it for me or point me in the right direction ?
cheers.
Victoria,
I do and it’s old news. However I’m sure that’s the one Mysay was after. On the big picture, libs have lost that battle and should move on. Even I’m sick of listening to them harp on about it.
Bemused,
Think of the robe
Doyley the PM’s rejection is quoted in the SMH article today about Hockey and Shorten rejection of a RC.
Palmer would probably request a new chair shaped like the original Titanic.
[“@612brisbane: We can confirm that @clivefpalmer has been suspended from the LNP, effective immediately. A decision on his future will be made on Nov 23”]
Like he cares what the decision is? He has Leo Sayer at his resort to welcome his first dinosaur.
@rummel/3366
No that was not the full speech.
That was the cut version designed for FUD.
what is god will
dont know really. i suupose it means do unto others as you with to have done to you.
simple really
i would think thats the basis of just being a good person
but we are not perfect, thats impossible
we can only try
[Palmer would probably request a new chair shaped like the original Titanic.]
With a band and movable chairs in the public gallery.
Bogot looks like a very useful word. This from the Urban Dictionary.
[bogot
Shorthand for “bigoted bogan”. The bogot is typically a racist, xenophobic creature, unable to assimilate rational information or process logical thought. It thrives on tabloid scaremongering and information from racist groups on social media platforms.
Facts mean very little to a bogot, as denial is their only true friend ]
[chris murphy @chrismurphys
I hear that Chris Pyne sent texts, very friendly texts, to a young man. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. #auspol @spursroar2 ]
Murphy may have had an epiphany whilst having his colonoscopy?
No arsey RC RC?
my say
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-HP00lxC30
This is the full interview on Ch 10 wherein the infamous statement was made. the transcript is below.
(at 2mins 5 seconds) answering the question “No mention today about the carbon tax. have you decided that will cost you votes? is that why it is on the shelf?
PM: ”There will be no carbon tax under the government I lead. What we will do his tackle the challenge of climate change. We have invested record amounts in solar and renewable technologies. I want to build the transmission lines that will bring back clean green energy into the national electricity grid is the grid. I also want to make sure that we have no more dirty coal-fired power stations and make sure we drive greener cars and working greener buildings. I will deliver those things and to lead a national debate to reach a consensus on putting a cap on carbon pollution.
Title:Election 2010: Interview With Prime Minister Julia Gillard MP Database:Electronic Media Monitoring Service Date:16-08-2010
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22emms%2
Doyley
Gillard helped the cover-up in August.
[“I don’t have an intention of having a royal commission… but I do believe that every individual who has something to say about what’s happened to them, every individual who’s suffered needs to be treated respectfully and needs to have their suffering acknowledged.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/royal-commission-on-church-abuse-is-not-the-answer-hockey-shorten-20121109-292bd.html#ixzz2Bi2f3gF2
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/royal-commission-on-church-abuse-is-not-the-answer-hockey-shorten-20121109-292bd.html
[When asked on Friday whether Prime Minister Julia Gillard would support a royal commission, her spokesman referred the National Times to comments she made in August, in which she said she did not intend to hold a royal commission.
“I think that there are a variety of those ways people are going to get the facts here and get hopefully some sense of redress here,” she told 2SM radio.
“I don’t have an intention of having a royal commission… but I do believe that every individual who has something to say about what’s happened to them, every individual who’s suffered needs to be treated respectfully and needs to have their suffering acknowledged.”]
For Doyley
What did Clive do to get suspended?
Diog
[“First of all Queensland does not have $65 billion worth of debt. The public take that to mean we owe $65 billion and that’s not the case,” Mr Palmer said.
“These books have been cooked by the biggest crooks who’ve ever occupied office in the State of Queensland and they need to be accountable.”]
Among other things – like calling Seeney that alfalfa farmer.
davidwh and Diogenes,
Thanks for the link.
Cheers.
“@davrosz: BREAKING: Donalds Trump’s combover is reportedly seeking political asylum from the Ecuadorian Embassy. More reports as they come in…”
😆
Diogenes@3392
So the tories are not really a broad church – they are a stalinist mob after all?
George Bludger @GeorgeBludger
ACA are having another go at the “asian’s taking over” the shopping centre story – fuckwits
Timothy Horton @timhorton_IDC
.@TurnbullMalcolm takes in the public response to 98 recommendations on how to implement an integrated design strategy pic.twitter.com/K0UwyWml
Retweeted by Malcolm Turnbull
“@TrubbellAtMill: Palmer suspension becomes the MSM’s story. Actual story is LNP/MSM collusion exposed by Palmer. Le sigh. #sideshow #writingcrap”
Is that the extent of Murphy’s big exposure?
ru
Wow! That’s pretty impressive.
Clive really hates Newman so he can’t be all bad.
Clive is absolutely all over the place.