The electorate of Melbourne produced a watershed result at the 2010 election, with Labor suffering defeat at the hands of the Greens in a seat it had held without interruption since 1904. It thus became the first federal lower house seat to be won by the Greens at a general election, and the second overall after a by-election victory in the New South Wales seat of Cunningham in 2002. Currently the electorate extends from the central business district westwards to the Maribyrnong River, northwards to Carlton North and eastwards to Richmond. The redistribution has transferred around 6000 voters in Clifton Hill and Alphington to Batman, and another 6000 at Fitzroy North to Wills.
Contributing to the Greens’ strength are the second youngest age profile of any electorate (the first being the strongly indigenous Northern Territory seat of Lingiari), substantial student populations associated with the University of Melbourne and RMIT University campuses, and the nation’s highest “no religion” response in the 2011 census. Other demographic features include substantial Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean populations. The Greens are strongest in the inner-city bohemia of Carlton, Fitzroy, Collingwood and Richmond, excluding some local-level concentrations of migrant populations which remain strong for Labor. They are weakest in and around the central business district itself and at Ascot Vale in the seat’s outer north-east, which are respectively strong for Liberal and Labor.
Melbourne was held for Labor from 1993 to 2010 by Lindsay Tanner, who in turn succeeded Hawke-Keating government Immigration Minister Gerry Hand. Their highest profile antecedent in the seat was Arthur Calwell, member from 1940 until 1972. A leading light of the Left faction, Tanner became Finance Minister when the Rudd government was elected, and emerged as part of a four-member “kitchen cabinet” which dominated the government’s decision-making. On the day that Kevin Rudd was deposed as Labor leader, Tanner dropped a second bombshell in parliament when he announced he would not contest the election, which he insisted was unrelated to events earlier in the day. He has since emerged as a public critic of the leadership change and the political process more broadly.
Tanner’s exit at the subsequent election brought into play a seat where the Greens had rapidly grown as a threat since the 2001 election, when their vote lifted 9.6% to 15.8% on the back of concern over asylum seeker policy. It rose again to 19.0% at the 2004 election, when the party harvested much of a collapsing Democrats vote. A further breakthrough was achieved in 2007 when their candidate, Adam Bandt, overtook the Liberal candidate to reach the final preference count. On that occasion the primary vote for Labor’s Lindsay Tanner was 49.5%, enough to ensure him a 4.7% margin after preferences. With Tanner’s retirement at the 2010 election, the Labor vote fell 11.4% while the Greens were up 13.4%, which panned out to a comfortable 6.0% win for the Greens after preferences.
Adam Bandt came to parliament with an instant national profile by virtue of his position on the cross-bench of a hung parliament, which events since have only enhanced. However, he has twice received portents from the sphere of state politics that he will face a tougher environment at the next election than the last. The first was in the state election campaign of November 2010, when the Greens’ high hopes for breakthroughs in the electorate’s corresponding state seats were dashed by a Liberal Party decision to put Labor ahead of the Greens on its how-to-vote cards. This decision was seen by some as a catalyst for the Coalition’s election victory, and there seems a high probability it will be repeated federally. The effect at the state election was to cut flows of Liberal preferences to the Greens from around three-quarters to around a third, which would have cut Bandt’s two-party vote by over 9%. The second was the Greens’ failure to win the by-election for the state seat of Melbourne, despite an expectation that they would profit from annoyance at the mid-term departure of the outgoing Labor member Bronwyn Pike.
Labor has again preselected its unsuccessful candidate from 2010, Cath Bowtell, a former ACTU industrial officer, current state party president and member of the Socialist Left. Bowtell won the preselection against what proved to be token opposition from Harvey Stern, the state president of Labor for Refugees.
I still say the Goldilox 3.5 year terms. Two elections every 7 years.
Not too hot, not too cold, just right 😀
I think that death duty should be re-introduced. After all who benefited the most by its abolition. It certainly wasn’t those at the bottom of the affluent scale.
Someone requested recently that I assemble all the Seat and the Week posts in one place. I’ve done this by creating a “Federal Election 2013” posts category, which you can access under categories in the sidebar or here.
BK@998
The ultimate triumph of marketing over common sense.
Should attract at least a 1,000% tax.
[Would anybody except rednecks, teapartyites etc watch FoxNews in America. I watch it for a laugh.]
Many years ago I used to watch it.
Everything about it was cloying: rapid-fire talk-fests with no-one seeming to take time to breathe (do they do it through their ears?), garish colours, claustrophobic sets, cheap-looking graphics (probably hideously expensive in reality), and that arrogant smugness most of their on air “personalities” seem to have on Fox fascinated and appalled me simultaneously.
Then some American friends came to stay and I couldn’t shut up about how AWFUL it was.
The American lady reached over to me, gave me a kiss on the cheek and said, “Don’t worry it’s not real television.”
Instant cure. She put it so perfectly. They were the words I’d been trying to find.
BREAKING: BEIJING (AFP) – Disgraced Chinese politician Bo Xilai has been expelled from the ruling Communist party
enjaybee@1002
It would certainly rattle the cages of the tories – some would have heart attacks etc.
But the US has it, I believe the UK and am not sure about EU.
But means testing welfare across all its forms, steadily is the way to go to address the aging demographics and the budget structural deficit.
Another good one would be the US style, alternative minimum tax where even if you have heaps of deductions etc, you still have to pay a certain level of tax.
And of course the multi national companies who shop around the world for the lowest tax levels. eg Google has income in Australia of well over a $1Bn per year but pays pittance in tax by shipping the income out to Ireland or wherever. Many ather other big names do the same.
PS Leave tinned beetroot alone guys. GST free for sure and dunny paper!
[What’s happening on TV and on PB for the US election?
When does the coverage start? (Talking as someone who doesn’t get cable)]
I know ABC24 are covering it from 10am or there abouts, if you want to watch TV coverage.
(that’s 10am Wednesday, btw…)
http://www.nbn.gov.au/campaign/
my post @ 1010
new ad campaign starting.
I have had this coming Wednesday booked as “leave” since February. I shall be glued to the screen alternating between CNN and FoxNews and have the laptop following the live counts.
Heaven!
Especially if the Repugs and Romney go down.
William Bowe@1003
That was me. Thanks, William.
All my homework in one place! 😀
Carey
Yes. ABC starts at 10am and 9 starts at 11.30.
I seem to recall watching Stewart and Colbert call it at about 3pm in 2008.
dave@1007
I have never heard of tinned beetroot being used for that before, but each to their own. Does it prevent piles or something?
scorpio@879
This post has been bothering me since I first read it. In particular: “It is 40 per cent cheaper to build cars in Thailand than it is to build cars in Australia.”
How can that possibly be?
I would have thought that labour was only a relatively small percentage of the cost of building a car, particularly with automated techniques such as robots.
So it appears to me that most of the 40% difference cannot possibly arise from cheaper labour. So what does it arise from?
Is BK around? This should be right up his alley to provide an informed answer.
BB, don’t you listen to redneck radio 2GB avidly? 🙂 (Or am I getting my Bludgers confused?)
Puff.
I like canned beetroot – see up thread.
But, I deeply resent have to pay a tax to err, clean up so to speak.
Two different matters 🙂
[I seem to recall watching Stewart and Colbert call it at about 3pm in 2008.]
Sigh… good times, that was a great election. I just remember seeing Virginia being coloured blue and NC looking that way too and, just from that, knowing Obama had won. That the Bush era will be over soon… was a big day. I was also trashed off my face…
dio
ABC24 is covering it officially from 10am but will be crossing ‘live’ before then.
Antony Green will be involved in the telecast. He also has a US Election site up.
I think Nate Silver is the US equivalent of Antony Green.
bemused
I would think exchange rates are the biggy, particularly when the comparison is Australia exporting cars OR Thailand exporting a similar product ?
Bur wages would be in there. Productively – who knows?
dave@1021
This is a specific example of a more general phenomena where products with a low labour content are claimed to be produced dramatically cheaper in low-wage countries.
It has puzzled me for years and I just don’t really buy it. There is a lot more going on and exchange rates, particularly if artificially manipulated, are part of it.
BTW, are you an economist?
If you want a bit of clarity regarding Nate Silver. He was on the Rachel Maddow podcast (video) today. You can get it on iTunes
Bemused
Yes I am around. In fact I had just sent this link to a number of my workmates who all have a strong automotive background.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-04/car-parts-maker-autodom-placed-into-administration/4352234
I made the point that I reckon Holden will have to buy one section of Autodom (AI Automotive at Woodville, who make and sub-assemble heaps of critical JIT components) and operate it itself.
Modern auto plants a more integrators these days as opposed to vertically integrated manufacturers. Direct labour input at an assembler is a relatively small proportion of costs, but it is in the purchased assemblies and components where more substantial amounts of labour is included. Mind you in recent times the Aussie auto companies have been sourcing many such items from from low cost countries. This does not come without risk as chasing low purchase prices often introduces many extraneous risks and costs (which, to cost accountant midgets, usually go unnoticed).
As for the future of the industry I am not overly hopeful. The auto industry has been a very important part of the development of manufacturing management and skills in this country/ I frequently encounter auto industry people who were, in that environment, by no means stars but who have gone out into other industries and shone,
Also there is the national interest issue of maintaining a strategic manufacturing capability.
I fear for Ford. Holden, I think will need a radical transformation to survive but his is entirely dependent on Detroit’s appetite too continue operations here.
As for Toyota, I reckon they will stay, but these changes will lead to the virtual collapse of the once impressive supplier industry.
Globally there is simply far too much capacity and far too many governments all striving to maintain their operation.
Not an economist, but very very interested in the topic. Have been since the mid 1980’s with Keating as Treasurer.
Of course exchange rates are rigged – the US is a past, current master of it and its future depends on it.
Any number of books etc around on the topic of currency wars which were are seeing with the US – China & EU.
eg the Plaza accord in 1985 where the Japanese and Germans were “convinced” to allow their currency to strengthen against the USD so that US exports became more competitive (the price of the security alliance).
Australia is just backwash. Currency flexibility has worked a treat for us basically since the currency was floated, but the current safe haven status of the AUD is stuffing up what has been a magnificent automatic stabiliser for our economy for so long.
In my approach to investing I pay particular attention to inter market relationships of the main financial markets, ie Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and FX.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord
Pyne is doing another pyne:
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/11/04/pyne-wont-retract-false-100mbps-nbn-claim/
By the people (the election of Barack Obama) on SBS now if anyone is interested
🙂
[…Alongside their choice for president, residents of Washington, Oregon and Colorado – a swing state – will be asked on Tuesday whether they want to decriminalise cannabis.
If the measures are passed, adults over 21 would be able to possess, distribute and use small amounts. Cannabis for authorised medical use is already permitted and regulated by each state, even though it is against federal law.
Support is particularly strong in Washington and Colorado, but a “yes” vote in any of the states would be interpreted by the Department of Justice as an act of defiance against the federal government’s war on drugs – the national law enforcement programme that spends $44bn a year struggling to stem the tide of illegal drugs in the US…
If recreational use is approved, a new drug industry would inevitably boom and the states expect a tax bonanza from the income generated…]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/03/states-poised-to-legalise-cannabis
BK @ 1024
Thanks for that.
It is great to have access to expertise like yours.
I agree with what you say about the importance of the industry for the skills it develops and other spin-offs.
Many other countries are trying to acquire a car industry and I don’t think we should throw ours away.
High labour cost countries like Germany seem to do OK.
Way out on the fringe of Australian politics is the Galileo Movement.
Most think they are your garden variety climate sceptics being run out of a post office box number in Queensland, but these guys, Malcolm Roberts in particular, are true nutters who believe the UN and a cabal of bankers are promoting the fraud of Climate Change to introduce a socialist one world government, and expropriate all the land of farmers.
They cross link and cross post to related parties in Corey Bernardi fronts like CATA, and the US mothership funded by the oil billionaire Koch brothers (no conspiracy there, just facts)
Anyway, Malcolm Roberts did and interview recently with Ben Cubby, environment editor at Fairfax and the transcript (quite lengthy) gives an insight into AGW sceptics.
http://www.galileomovement.com.au/docs/ROBERTS,Malcolm-InterviewWithBenCubby-30July2012WorkingCopy2.pdf
[But there is no doubt whatsoever now – and I don’t do this research on the
internet, I go to credible books … I’ve read books from eminent historians,
eminent politicians in the United States, neutral politicians, eminent, what do
you call them? … economists – they all point to the same thing: the corruption
by some major banking families in the world. Their collusion in a tight-knit
cabal with the United Nations. The United Nations – are you familiar with
Maurice Strong?]
Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
.@JoeHockey @thekouk Joe, if Labor imposed same tax burden as Coalition government of which you were a member, surplus would be $25 billion!
Bemused
It is really good to be part of the PB “family” where collectively there is a great mixture of knowledge, passion and humour.
dave @ 1025
You have certainly picked up a lot! Your posts on topics economic are generally quite good and I always read them.
I actually did a BEc but never worked as an economist apart from a bit of tutoring.
I do my best to keep across it by reading writers like Ross Gittins, John Quiggin, Paul Krugman etc.
[I don’t want my Wednesday viewing ruined with a one-sided contest!]
I do!
I want the Repugs, the Tea Party, and everything they stand for, and every tactic they used, CRUSHED.
And I want the extreme right here in oz to sit up, pay attention and at the very least do the decent thing and chuck such a complete mental that they lose in an undignified manner.
cud chewer
Hear! Hear!
Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
.@Jsus1 @thekouk @joehockey Facts annoy Coalition. More complex than slogans and harder to remember.
@leftocentre: SIRI?
Will Tony Abbott be LOTO at the next election?
“A tiny abscess will not win LOTTO” http://t.co/gy0UnCE4
BK@1032
Yes, some of the people here, including you, never cease to amaze me.
[I think that death duty should be re-introduced. After all who benefited the most by its abolition. It certainly wasn’t those at the bottom of the affluent scale.]
We have capital gains tax, it is just as effective.
[We have capital gains tax, it is just as effective.]
No it isn’t at all.
What is PMJG doing this week?
[Ms Gillard was to meet with her Laotian counterpart, Thongsing Thammavong, this afternoon local time and was expected to also hold bilateral talks with British Foreign Secretary William Hague and French President Francois Hollande over the coming days.
Some media reports have suggested Ms Gillard will also meet with Pakistani Prime Minister Raja Pervez.
Ms Gillard will travel to Indonesia later in the week for the Bali Democracy Forum at which she is expected to hold talks with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.]
What is Tony Abbott doing this week?
pursuing his blood pledge to campaign day and night against the “Carbon Tax”
Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
.@KieraGorden @thekouk @joehockey And #onetricktony said he’d get economy growing again. Didn’t know it’d been growing for 21 years! #auspol
@sprocket_/1041
Hiding.
Just watched “The Party of Reagan”. Interesting stuff. There ARE sane people in the US who take it for granted that to do a budget you need to look at spending AND revenue.
Grover Norquist, Michele Bachman. VERY scary people. I dont think we have their equivalent here no matter how batty Barnyard gets.
Don’t expect a 3pm (Australian Eastern time) election result this time folks. Will be later than that.
sprocket
Bolt used to be on their list of supporters but demanded they remove his name and outed them as banking conspiracy nutters with the strong suspicion they were anti-Semites.
[Bolt used to be on their list of supporters but demanded they remove his name and outed them as banking conspiracy nutters with the strong suspicion they were anti-Semites.]
If Bolt outed them they must be at least under the suspicion they are actually not all that bad.
WWP
I forget the details but it was something about global warming being a plot by the four big banking families that run the world and I gather 2 or 3 of those families are Jewish. Bolt asked them to deny that was their position but they stuck to it.
[If Bolt outed them they must be at least under the suspicion they are actually not all that bad.]
I emailed them to see if they were going to dump Alan Jones as a patron. Got an email back telling me how wonderful he was, and then another from them calling me a leftie hypocrite.
They are nuttbaggers.
If you look on the conservative sites in the US, they can’t bring themselves to actually color all the states Obama is ahead in any shade of blue so, rather than actually faking the polls, they are counting almost any state as a toss up. There are 147 EVs in “toss up” states, including states where not a single poll has had Romney ahead.