Seat of the week: Melbourne

After powering to an historic victory in the electorate of Melbourne at the 2010 election, Greens MP Adam Bandt is likely to find the going a lot tougher next time around.

The electorate of Melbourne produced a watershed result at the 2010 election, with Labor suffering defeat at the hands of the Greens in a seat it had held without interruption since 1904. It thus became the first federal lower house seat to be won by the Greens at a general election, and the second overall after a by-election victory in the New South Wales seat of Cunningham in 2002. Currently the electorate extends from the central business district westwards to the Maribyrnong River, northwards to Carlton North and eastwards to Richmond. The redistribution has transferred around 6000 voters in Clifton Hill and Alphington to Batman, and another 6000 at Fitzroy North to Wills.

Contributing to the Greens’ strength are the second youngest age profile of any electorate (the first being the strongly indigenous Northern Territory seat of Lingiari), substantial student populations associated with the University of Melbourne and RMIT University campuses, and the nation’s highest “no religion” response in the 2011 census. Other demographic features include substantial Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean populations. The Greens are strongest in the inner-city bohemia of Carlton, Fitzroy, Collingwood and Richmond, excluding some local-level concentrations of migrant populations which remain strong for Labor. They are weakest in and around the central business district itself and at Ascot Vale in the seat’s outer north-east, which are respectively strong for Liberal and Labor.

Melbourne was held for Labor from 1993 to 2010 by Lindsay Tanner, who in turn succeeded Hawke-Keating government Immigration Minister Gerry Hand. Their highest profile antecedent in the seat was Arthur Calwell, member from 1940 until 1972. A leading light of the Left faction, Tanner became Finance Minister when the Rudd government was elected, and emerged as part of a four-member “kitchen cabinet” which dominated the government’s decision-making. On the day that Kevin Rudd was deposed as Labor leader, Tanner dropped a second bombshell in parliament when he announced he would not contest the election, which he insisted was unrelated to events earlier in the day. He has since emerged as a public critic of the leadership change and the political process more broadly.

Tanner’s exit at the subsequent election brought into play a seat where the Greens had rapidly grown as a threat since the 2001 election, when their vote lifted 9.6% to 15.8% on the back of concern over asylum seeker policy. It rose again to 19.0% at the 2004 election, when the party harvested much of a collapsing Democrats vote. A further breakthrough was achieved in 2007 when their candidate, Adam Bandt, overtook the Liberal candidate to reach the final preference count. On that occasion the primary vote for Labor’s Lindsay Tanner was 49.5%, enough to ensure him a 4.7% margin after preferences. With Tanner’s retirement at the 2010 election, the Labor vote fell 11.4% while the Greens were up 13.4%, which panned out to a comfortable 6.0% win for the Greens after preferences.

Adam Bandt came to parliament with an instant national profile by virtue of his position on the cross-bench of a hung parliament, which events since have only enhanced. However, he has twice received portents from the sphere of state politics that he will face a tougher environment at the next election than the last. The first was in the state election campaign of November 2010, when the Greens’ high hopes for breakthroughs in the electorate’s corresponding state seats were dashed by a Liberal Party decision to put Labor ahead of the Greens on its how-to-vote cards. This decision was seen by some as a catalyst for the Coalition’s election victory, and there seems a high probability it will be repeated federally. The effect at the state election was to cut flows of Liberal preferences to the Greens from around three-quarters to around a third, which would have cut Bandt’s two-party vote by over 9%. The second was the Greens’ failure to win the by-election for the state seat of Melbourne, despite an expectation that they would profit from annoyance at the mid-term departure of the outgoing Labor member Bronwyn Pike.

Labor has again preselected its unsuccessful candidate from 2010, Cath Bowtell, a former ACTU industrial officer, current state party president and member of the Socialist Left. Bowtell won the preselection against what proved to be token opposition from Harvey Stern, the state president of Labor for Refugees.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,077 comments on “Seat of the week: Melbourne”

Comments Page 17 of 22
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  1. leone – Wow! Romney’s undies are a right turn on,er .. turnoff in all ways. A President believing in his magic undies is as bad as an LOTO believing that crazy, bullyboy Uni tactics work.

    Imagine if the St Johns story was about a public school. The media mob would be braying for the Minister of Education and the Principal to lose their heads. Or would that only be if it was a Labor Govt. in power?

  2. frednk –
    We will obviously just have to agree to disagree on that point.

    Obviously in the circumstances you are talking about it would already be obvious that a new crisis was upon us, and I do acknowledge that in those circumstances anything is possible, and all options on the table.

    However, recalling how things went in 2008 and the rate that the situation deteriorated did not leave time for the government to take 3 weeks out for an election campaign. As soon as an election is called, the government is in caretaker mode and it wouldn’t be legitimate to be making any substantial decisions. Introducing paralysis into the heart of government just at the time when action is required is daft.

  3. [Imagine if the St Johns story was about a public school. The media mob would be braying for the Minister of Education and the Principal to lose their heads. Or would that only be if it was a Labor Govt. in power?
    BH
    Don’t worry. George Pell will clean it up (or sweep it under the carpet in the usual fashion).

  5. [Jackol
    Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:56 am | Permalink

    frednk –
    We will obviously just have to agree to disagree on that point.]

    Hopefully we will never find out who is right.

  6. Just saw some rodeo footage – bull riding or whatever they call it.

    It is bad enough that they put a tight strap on the pizzle to put the bull into pain but I saw an addition I hadn’t seen before.

    Just before the bull was released a chap above and behind the bull was using some sort of rope which had been passed just in front of the back legs of the bull and under its belly – I could not quite catch whether the rope was around the testicles as well or just hard up against the pizzle base.

    The chap was sawing his rope vigorously back and forth.

    It looked to be in the US from the contextual information.

    ‘Hey dad, what do you do for a living?’

    ‘Why son, I am paid to inflict pain on bulls’.

  10. BH:

    [A President believing in his magic undies is as bad as ]

    I’m an atheist and thus no friend or religious humbug. I’m also no friend of the Repugs, but after we’ve had a vbit of a chuckle about “magic undies”, this article at HuffPo makes some reasonable points.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-bowman/mormon-temple-garments-_b_1673617.html

    The garment(s) themselves are known as “Temple Garments” and culturally have, for the devout Mormons, a similar standing as the Yarmulka has for observant Jews, or the turban for Sikhs.

    While I regard it as apt to make commentary on the separation of church and state when discusisng “faith-based politics” speaking of “magic undies” sounds like a cheap shot, unless one is going to describe garments peculiar to other religions in similar terms. Asking a Jews and Sikhs about their magic hats could be considered rude.

    On a more serious note, in Salt Lake City, Utah — a bastion both of the Republican Party and Mormonism, opponents of the Mormon Church sought to disparage the garment by amidst other things, spitting on them, wiping their noses and stamping on them. IIRC the local government sought to strengthen hate crimes law to prohibit this kind of activity, the First Amendment notwithstanding. That’s something I find more telling.

  12. Boerwar@807


    Canberra airport is worse than any capital airport in Australia. By a country mile.

    I didn’t think it was too bad when I was there except for the construction going on.
    Maybe I was lucky and was there when it was relatively quiet.
    What are the problems you see?

  14. [Top Conservative Cat ‏@TeaPartyCat
    That awkward moment when the Romney campaign brags about the huge crowd and then after Kid Rock sings the crowd leaves before Mitt can speak ]

  15. Jackol

    Gillard also has an agreement with Oakie and Windsor to go full term. I can’t recall date but I think it was at least October. I believe the agreement was in writing.

    Obviously she can renege on the agreement but the approbrium heaped on her would be considerable unless there was a bloody good reason.

  17. I don’t see anything wrong with CBR airport either and prefer it to, say, Perth Airport which is probably too small for the traffic at the moment given all the mining jobs.

  20. zoidlord:

    Perth is the worst airport in my experience, esp the international airport. ANd there are never taxis when you need them.

  21. [I think the whole idea of airport privatisation was a crock as the commercial interests running them are interested not in providing first class airport facilities to serve the national interest but simply profit maximisation. Hence the outrageous parking fees, very limited public transport to Melbourne airport etc.]

    Bemused and others

    I shudder to think what Australian airports would be like if privatisation had not occurred. A public sector corporation such as the old FAC would not have been able to unlock the capital or business potential necessary to upgrade the airports to their current level. Yes, the major airports make big profits – largely through retail and car parking. They are both essential revenue streams that contribute to other areas. If the airports had to depend on aeronautical revenue, the fees would have to be so high they would have a major impact on the availibility of air services.

    I agree that Sydney Airport is a terrible hole, especially the international terminal. But then again, Sydney has no airport competition – Melbourne has Avalon, Brisbane has both Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Sydney Airport is a manifest policy failure that neither party can be proud of – and at both state and federal levels. After all, they have been talking about a new airport since 1946. In that time, both Melbourne and Brisbane have built completely new airports from scratch. Now the Victorian Government is doing the right thing by identifying – very early – a potential third airport at Tooradin.

  22. [Gillard also has an agreement with Oakie and Windsor to go full term. I can’t recall date but I think it was at least October.]

    It says September or October 2013, with a further agreement to ‘investigate legislative proposals … (to) give greater certainty to the Australian people about the Parliament serving full three year terms’.

    But given almost nothing has come from the parliamentary agreements I hardly think the Government will think too long about breaking another commitment.

  24. Diogs

    Refer to my earlier post this morning. The government cannot realistically go to an election before 3 August 2013. Otherwise it will be house only. Does any incoming government want what is effectively a giant by election within 12 months? Probably not – and the cost alone would be enourmous.

  25. b

    Inter alia, cooking behind the glass in the afternoon sun in the place you wait for visitors to arrive. The seats in the waiting area, of which, fortunately, there are not enough for everyone waiting, are placed in the hottest place of all.

    I have improved the quality of my live by avoiding flying in and out of Canberra airport whenever possible.

    CTar1

    ‘All airports are crap places’ is as close to a universal truth that I have seen since I gave being RC about 50 years ago.

  27. Finns

    It has been discussed for a while that China will go from economic takeoff to Japan style stagnation in one generation because of the one child policy as there will be a huge imbalance between ‘productive’ and ‘non productive’ population. It is fairly likely that even if it was removed as official policy, that birth rates would remain low especially in the major cities. Hong Kong and Taiwan, for example, both have amongst the lowest birth rates in the world without the one child policy.

  30. [Hong Kong and Taiwan, for example, both have amongst the lowest birth rates in the world without the one child policy.]

    B, you can add singapore. 30 years ago, Singapore actually punished 2, 3 and 4th child, eg: harder to get into a good govt school etc. Now, they pay & encourage 2, 3 & 4th child.

  32. Romney is too close for comfort-especially in the battleground States. I’ve read all the poll stuff and seen all the campaign spin, but this one ain’t over. This was unimaginable just a few weeks ago.

  34. [Don’t worry. George Pell will clean it up (or sweep it under the carpet in the usual fashion).]

    Bk – Pell’s back in the country and now is the time to front up to questions in the Vic enquiry as to what he said, knew, did! So 2 biggies to clean up in an overt way, please.

    Boerwar – Whatever you imagined you saw was right. I loathe rodeos and I’ve seen behind the scenes many times. Nasty tactics are used but one of the biggest cons is that the professional riders do a circuit. They use the same bulls for at most events and the bulls and horses are trained to act the right way so that the crowd gets a thrill. Riders and animals travel the circuit together.

    Local animals and riders were not encouraged here for the big money events.

    I hate campdrafting as well and have been known to tell riders I’d be getting the RSPCA if they didn’t stop kicking the horses or worse. Having the authority I could have done it altho most of the others involved thought I was a city ratbag with no sense of how to handle animals. They were right, of course. Glad to be retired from it all now.

  36. CO

    interesting article you have linked and I note your reductio ad dropping napalm on villagers in Vietnam.

    The Refugee Action Coalition says asylum seekers taking part in a hunger strike at the Nauru detention centre are prepared to die for the cause.

    The noble ’cause’ being to get into Australia ahead of those who are processed in regional centres.

    The hunger strike has now entered its fourth day, with protesters calling for better treatment at Nauru and more information about when their claims will be processed.

    ‘Better treatment?’ What better treatment? Going hungry of your own free will and being treated for the consequences at no cost to them? Up to them, really.

    There is plenty of time to process their claims because they are going to be there for years and years. No hurry.

    The Refugee Action Coalition’s spokesman, Ian Rintoul, has been in contact with asylum seekers on the island.

    Mr Rintoul should go and spend some time in Malaysian camps, Bangla Deshi camps and Thai camps. Until he represents all refugees instead of his preferred subset, he has no credibility at all.

    He says 300 people are refusing food and water, and 25 have collapsed and required medical treatment.

    Drat. Save on food but more medical expenses for the Australian taxpayers to fork out.

    [“They said rather than die day-by-day, they’d rather die fighting for their rights,” he said.]

    I bet Mr Rintoul any money he likes that 300 of them do not die for their right to get the jump on asylum seekers in Malaysia, Thailand and Bangla Desh.

    [Mr Rintoul said the hunger strikers have had no response from the Department of Immigration.]

    Really?

    [He says the department is risking lives by not responding to the demands of the asylum seekers.]

    There you have it, folks. Buckle to our emotional blackmail and do it now or you will be killing us.

    [“They want their processing to begin immediately, .]

    I would be telling them that they will have four or five years, maybe more for the processing to be done. No hurry at all, is there?

    [I don’t know whether just seeing someone from the department would be sufficient,” he said]

    Mr Rintoul conducting the negotiations and not being very subtle about it all, is he?

    [“I think that the Immigration Department would have something to say to them I think about how long they are going to be there and when their processing is going to start.]

    Mr Rintoul entitled to think what he likes. Pretty well the whole of Australia and most of South-east Asia knows that it is looking to be four or five years, maybe more. In that case the speed of processing can be slowed down without any effect on anyone.

    [“So the ball, it’s really in the Minister’s court in that respect.”]

    Nice try, but nope. It is in the court of the asylum seekers.

    My guess? The hunger strikes will escalate into self harm, will escalate into attempted suicide and will then escalate into violence. Nice piccies for the MSM.

    Whatever it takes to force their way into Australia before the sods sitting back in Malaysia, Thailand and Bangla Desh…

  37. The government can wait till late November 2013 to go to the polls. Why throw away time in government when you are not assured of winning?

    There will be no early election. It’s another MSM beat-up to put pressure on Gillard.

    As the polls wax-and-wane up till the next election, there’ll be ongoing speculation about when it will be held.

    Just like when Kevin will take over the leadership again.

  38. They are like a dog with a bone…

    [Gillard faces new call on ‘slush fund’
    THE Coalition has suggested Julia Gillard misled parliament over an Australian Workers Union “slush fund” she helped establish for her then boyfriend in 1992.

    Opposition workplace relations spokesman, Eric Abetz, today demanded a further explanation from the Prime Minister, suggesting Ms Gillard had given incorrect information to the parliament about when inquiries were first made into the fund.

    Senator Abetz said there was a full 12 months between when Ms Gillard was interviewed by her then law firm Slater and Gordon over the fund in September 1995 and when the Australian Workers Union reported it to police.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/gillard-faces-new-call-on-slush-fund/story-fn59niix-1226510006918

  39. [There will be no early election. It’s another MSM beat-up to put pressure on Gillard.]

    My opinion is that it IS a media beat up, but is being fed by the government to unsettle the Coalition.

  41. [Just like when Kevin will take over the leadership again.]

    Not even the press believe that – except for Phil and his entire justification for having a job is to try to come up reasons anyone should take Kev-07 stories seriously.

  42. Speaking of Tone – I wonder if there’s a raffle going on in the ministry with the winner getting the chance to mention in QT that he’s “Not hot like a sunrise”.

  43. [Mr Rudd is due to deliver a speech in Mandarin]
    I would prefer
    [Mr Rudd is due to deliver a speech in Orange]

  46. [Blimey, I hope he tones down the expletives this time. :-)]

    The Hamster Wheel had a skit on 07 doing chinese and expletives said, IIRC, “to be helping attract tourists from China”.

  47. [I have not seen imagery of Abbott in days, so my eyebrows shot up at comments here yesterday that he is now wearing glasses and trying to appear more humble. Is the suntan part of this new ‘look’ as well perhaps?]

    Homer Simpson became extremely intelligent when he took to wearing reading glasses. Perhaps Peta watched that episode and thought it might work for Tony.

  48. {Imagine if the St Johns story was about a public school}

    CORRECT ME IF IAM WRONG BUT I BELEIVE ITS BOARDING
    HOUSE ON CAMPUS….NOT A SCHOOL

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