The electorate of Melbourne produced a watershed result at the 2010 election, with Labor suffering defeat at the hands of the Greens in a seat it had held without interruption since 1904. It thus became the first federal lower house seat to be won by the Greens at a general election, and the second overall after a by-election victory in the New South Wales seat of Cunningham in 2002. Currently the electorate extends from the central business district westwards to the Maribyrnong River, northwards to Carlton North and eastwards to Richmond. The redistribution has transferred around 6000 voters in Clifton Hill and Alphington to Batman, and another 6000 at Fitzroy North to Wills.
Contributing to the Greens’ strength are the second youngest age profile of any electorate (the first being the strongly indigenous Northern Territory seat of Lingiari), substantial student populations associated with the University of Melbourne and RMIT University campuses, and the nation’s highest “no religion” response in the 2011 census. Other demographic features include substantial Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean populations. The Greens are strongest in the inner-city bohemia of Carlton, Fitzroy, Collingwood and Richmond, excluding some local-level concentrations of migrant populations which remain strong for Labor. They are weakest in and around the central business district itself and at Ascot Vale in the seat’s outer north-east, which are respectively strong for Liberal and Labor.
Melbourne was held for Labor from 1993 to 2010 by Lindsay Tanner, who in turn succeeded Hawke-Keating government Immigration Minister Gerry Hand. Their highest profile antecedent in the seat was Arthur Calwell, member from 1940 until 1972. A leading light of the Left faction, Tanner became Finance Minister when the Rudd government was elected, and emerged as part of a four-member “kitchen cabinet” which dominated the government’s decision-making. On the day that Kevin Rudd was deposed as Labor leader, Tanner dropped a second bombshell in parliament when he announced he would not contest the election, which he insisted was unrelated to events earlier in the day. He has since emerged as a public critic of the leadership change and the political process more broadly.
Tanner’s exit at the subsequent election brought into play a seat where the Greens had rapidly grown as a threat since the 2001 election, when their vote lifted 9.6% to 15.8% on the back of concern over asylum seeker policy. It rose again to 19.0% at the 2004 election, when the party harvested much of a collapsing Democrats vote. A further breakthrough was achieved in 2007 when their candidate, Adam Bandt, overtook the Liberal candidate to reach the final preference count. On that occasion the primary vote for Labor’s Lindsay Tanner was 49.5%, enough to ensure him a 4.7% margin after preferences. With Tanner’s retirement at the 2010 election, the Labor vote fell 11.4% while the Greens were up 13.4%, which panned out to a comfortable 6.0% win for the Greens after preferences.
Adam Bandt came to parliament with an instant national profile by virtue of his position on the cross-bench of a hung parliament, which events since have only enhanced. However, he has twice received portents from the sphere of state politics that he will face a tougher environment at the next election than the last. The first was in the state election campaign of November 2010, when the Greens’ high hopes for breakthroughs in the electorate’s corresponding state seats were dashed by a Liberal Party decision to put Labor ahead of the Greens on its how-to-vote cards. This decision was seen by some as a catalyst for the Coalition’s election victory, and there seems a high probability it will be repeated federally. The effect at the state election was to cut flows of Liberal preferences to the Greens from around three-quarters to around a third, which would have cut Bandt’s two-party vote by over 9%. The second was the Greens’ failure to win the by-election for the state seat of Melbourne, despite an expectation that they would profit from annoyance at the mid-term departure of the outgoing Labor member Bronwyn Pike.
Labor has again preselected its unsuccessful candidate from 2010, Cath Bowtell, a former ACTU industrial officer, current state party president and member of the Socialist Left. Bowtell won the preselection against what proved to be token opposition from Harvey Stern, the state president of Labor for Refugees.
This little black duck@749
Except it has prior honourable meaning –
[ German Emperor Kaiser Wilhelm, who was famously dismissive of the BEF, reportedly issued an order on 19 August 1914 to “exterminate…the treacherous English and walk over General French’s contemptible little army”.
Hence, in later years, the survivors of the regular army dubbed themselves “The Old Contemptibles”. ]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Expeditionary_Force_%28World_War_I%29
Sometimes the most effective thing is to do nothing. Just let OM continue along the path of going broke. Their demise is being helped along by their own hands.
I hope the Thugs of St John’s are dealt with appropriately. Would a rubber band tight around the scrotum for a week or two be too much to hope for?
Wheat!! Insiders
Just watching Insiders, there was some footage of a Tony Abbott presser earlier in the week.
He was showing the some signs of sunbed abuse, white pale skin around the eyes, but a tanned face.
The goggle-marks are bit a give away
Mr Squiggle – yeah I was surprised to see his minders hadn’t picked that up and done something about it with makeup or whatever. It was a silly look, particularly with the whole “panda eyes” gag on that insurance ad series. “Like a sunrise!”
nikki savy like Michelle grattan need to retire
Morning all.
I have not seen imagery of Abbott in days, so my eyebrows shot up at comments here yesterday that he is now wearing glasses and trying to appear more humble. Is the suntan part of this new ‘look’ as well perhaps?
Do his minders really think voters haven’t already made their minds up about him? He’s never been popular, no amount of superficial styling will change that.
[There is talk that an by-election for northern tablelands (Torbay’s seat) could be in may- june
It would be strange if the federal election is held before then]
Bob, it would be strange if an election were held before then. If it were, it would put the Reps and Senate out of synch and we would all need to go to the polls twice.
According to the Parliament House website, the earliest possible election date for both houses is 3 August 2013. The last possible date for the Reps is 30 November, and the last possible for the senate 24 May 2014.
So, Bob, May- June for a Northern Tablelands by election is definitely in the realm of sensible possibility.
“@sortius: Gotta love how these hacks are now linguistic & psychology experts #insiders”
@guardiannews: Labour lead Tories by 11 points in latest Observer/Opinium poll – http://t.co/zu0gHUKh
It is a reasonable assumption that the next election will be held on one of the 5 saturdays in August 2013 – 3,10,17,24 or 31.
The government can’t go earlier without putting the houses out of synch and going later (though strictly possible) would look as though they had gone over the 3 years.
The Insiders notice a “mood change”. More like their OWN mood.
710
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
[That stuff about St Johns College is totally shocking. The place should be closed down immediately.]
What is really shocking is that the current problems in that viper’s nest are the same basic problems they had with the place 30 years ago when I was at Sydney Uni, and which everybody in authority at the college and uni took ‘very seriously’, and solemnly swore to promptly fix.
That Tony Abbott attended John’s does not surprise me in the slightest. He would have fit right in.
[Jackol
Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 9:11 am | Permalink
…
There is no case for a March election beyond the LNP and its boosters trying to damage the ALP.]
My view is if we have an early election it will because a large stimulus is required because the USA has really stuffed it up.
I think it is a case of place your bets after Carr gets back from the US. It should be pretty clear by then.
If Labor get in we will get the stimulus, if the Liberals get in we will be managed by economic incompetents. It will be a case of god help us.
“@senatormilne: Rector Michael Bongers must be supported in ending ritual abuse at St Johns.As old Johnsmen @TonyAbbottMHR and @JoeHockey should speak up”
[He was showing the some signs of sunbed abuse, white pale skin around the eyes, but a tanned face.]
Somebody tell Tony, Mitt only did that for the Latino vote.
guytaur@765
guytaur
Yes, well done Christine. Stand by for a deafening silence from Abbott and Hockey.
[The Insiders notice a “mood change”. More like their OWN mood.]
Fibre in diet?
To think a person that sprouts this shit could become the US President!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101774783
Not sure if this has been posted yet but it seems a bit of a backhander to Abbott in today’s Telegraph.
[ There’s so much advice for Tony Abbott at the moment.
Maybe he needs more policies. Maybe he needs a good moisturising primer underneath all that pancake foundation he wears. ]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/why-tony-needs-to-get-off-his-bike-and-take-a-nap/story-e6frezz0-1226509760340
CTar1@708
You forgot the Fake Tan kit and hair colour kit
It was all very light weight stuff on Insiders. There is better analysis on PB. Insiders istrying to serve up leftover cold baked-beans as Cordon-Bleu.
Hey Emmo, on ABC2 Bus Show this morn, talk of some company reviving steel making in Wyalla, didnt u wipe it off already @CraigEmersonMP
Peter Garret onMeet The Press
Frednk – I disagree.
If the world economy (or just the USA or Europe or whatever) is going down the drain it will be a while before it becomes obvious.
Boffins being able to see it coming are irrelevant in a political sense.
If the ALP “jumps early” before it’s commonly accepted that we’re in the middle of a new crisis, they will be fighting the election on conventional ground, and the opposition and the media will crucify the government for being tricky and calling the election to avoid having to explain a deficit of unknown magnitude, and the government will have no counter argument because the looming “cliff” won’t have fully appeared in the public’s consciousness.
If the ALP “jumps early” after it’s commonly accepted that we’re in the middle of a new crisis, the public will (rightly) ask “why on earth are you calling an unnecessary election in the middle of a freaking crisis? what kind of clowns are you?”
ie regardless of whether/when a new financial crisis arrives, there is no advantage to the ALP in calling an early election.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@772
Mega George was its brief component of sanity and fact.
Given that media commentary has for the moment at least cooled on the misogyny theme, I thought it might be interesting for bludgers to look at this short clip (2:29) of Rachel Maddow speaking to Ellen deGeneris about responses to her from her public.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZd_AdfE2hA&feature=related
It’s something that would be very familiar to us here when one considers the deeply misogynist campaign run against Julia Gillard here. Recall Grahame Morris here calling Leigh Sales “a bit of a cow”? Apparently Rachel Maddow’s critics (about 14% of her mail) love calling her “Madcow”. It’s simply disgusting. I hope I never meet such people because I know that violence is wrong. Compassion is an obligation. Keeping that in the front of one’s mind is important.
Just to show that it’s not only misogyny that fits reactionary dogwhistling, Maddow here talks about racial dogwhistling over Obama. The Drusge Report in early October re-animated the five-year-old Reverend Wright matter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3oXPGijQDg&feature=fvsr
Pay especial attention to the clip at the 2:40 point where Newt Gingrich tries really hard to dogwhistle up racial stereotypes without expressly uttering racial epithets. This was pre-Sununu asnd Colin Powell. Gingrich didn’t mention fried chicken or monkeys or bananas but he got through quite a bit all the same.
BK
[To think a person that sprouts this shit could become the US President!]
I don’t care what you say, I am not going near the Mount of Olives on the off chance that Mr Jesus comes down and splits it in half.
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/11/the-criminalisation-of-politics-are-our-political-leaders-pm-gillard-and-tony-abbott-crooks/
[THE CRIMINALISATION OF POLITICS: Are our political leaders PM Gillard and Tony Abbott crooks?
By VEXNEWS ⋅ November 4, 2012
The Australian Federal Police have been asked by the ALP to investigate the alleged offer of a bribe by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to disgruntled Liberal MP Alex Somlyay if he agreed to leave politics quietly.
Samantha Maiden of News Ltd publication has revealed the complaint and the original yarn that explained Somlyay was telling people about the offer.
………
If Somylay was made this indecent proposal and has evidence, could he blow Abbott up at any time? Will it lead to Labor doing to Abbott on bribery what the Coalition’s been trying to do Gillard on embezzlement? Or is just Canberra sledging? We suspect the latter.
We love a bit of scandal (as much, if not more than the next man) but deeming our political leaders criminals on the thinnest of evidence probably doesn’t do the democratic project much good. Transparency International says Australia is one of the least corrupt countries on Earth. How that squares with the easily-formed presumptions of criminal-level wrongdoing we hold about our political leaders has not yet been adequately explained. ]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/time-tony-abbott-had-a-good-lie-down/story-e6frfhqf-1226509811039
[Time Tony Abbott had a good lie down
Samantha Maiden
From: Sunday Herald Sun
November 04, 2012 12:00AM]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/cash-rebate-for-solar-panels-slashed/story-e6freuy9-1226509912387
[Cash rebate for solar panels slashed
Samantha Maiden
The Daily Telegraph
November 04, 2012 3:03AM]
Fran @ 777
Good post, IMHO.
[He was showing the some signs of sunbed abuse, white pale skin around the eyes, but a tanned face.]
Tony is just too sensitive to tell us he’s been spending quality time with two of his daughters at a tanning salon, getting that essential tan for their race day appearances. Such a caring, sharing, sensitive thing for a dad to do. (Why is it we never see Louise, the third daughter?)
Tony also has a very poor makeup artist. He looked like he was made of putty the other day, a really odd look. Too much spack filler (aka silicone-based primer) and too much foundation, I think. Nothing anyone could do could hide the untanned rings around the eyes.
PtMD:
[It was all very light weight stuff on Insiders. There is better analysis on PB.]
Very much so, including Mega-George, who seemed to think the voters were looking forward to a change of government, based on nothing much at all.
In addition, any conversation that has Nikki Savva in it will immediately head south. Her insistent references to Slater & Gordon and how this “gets under Gillard’s skin” (and how Julie Bishop is being “forensic” about it and should by implication, continue) underlines the utterly vacuous state of old media commentary in this country.
Looking at the couch today I recalled diving nto domestics the other day and coming across three chiles I’d picked from the garden each of which where in various states of decomposition. There were the three homegrown chiles on the couch, once fresh and spicy, and now wrinkled, deflated and showing evidence of mould, with Barry serving them up blissfully unaware that they needed to be placed into the kitchen compost bin.
C@tmomma @ 695
Thank you for telling us that, what a great post.
Perhaps the most effective attack on Mitt Romney of this campaign:
http://grist.org/politics/the-most-brutal-ad-youll-see-this-election/
Another advice on how @TonyAbbottMHR can get into the Lodge – http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/why-tony-needs-to-get-off-his-bike-and-take-a-nap/story-e6frezz0-1226509760340 – hangon, i thought Margie’s been measuring the curtains
[This year to date, he has visited 330 businesses, conducted 250 radio interviews]
A great many of those radio interviews were foot massages with the 2gb crew, and so 250 is a meaningless number.
[To think a person that sprouts this shit could become the US President!]
How anyone could vote for such a fruitcake is beyond my understanding. The Mormon religion is almost as whacky as Scientology.
Romney’s devotion to his religion has been demonstrated by his adherence to the rule about underwear. The Mormon ‘garment’ clearly visible under his white shirt proved that he takes his religion very seriously indeed. Only hard-core Mormons wear the thing.
Here’s some info about Romney and that underwear.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2100995/Mitt-Romney-shows-strength-faith-wearing-special-Mormon-underwear.html
As Jesse Ventura says here – ‘I don’t want someone in the highest office who believes in magic underwear.’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUVpNGTA3qM
Jackol@775
Events that could cause a rumble –
– Greece again, possibly triggering wider defaults/ schism within the EU.
– Widening EU recession. Their Banks are broke and require recapitalisation, but where will the money come from? How do you get out of recession with broke bank’s ?
German voters get their say in 2013 as well and the constitution court has put limits on how much Germany can put into the various EU initiatives.
Satisfactory and sustained World growth unlikely without a growing EU.
– Effect of the result of US Election on confidence for worldwide economic growth generally. Wall Street want Romney and it is being tipped a strong rally should Romney win. Markets to drop (says Wall Street) if Obama gets back. But no one knows what will happen.
– By late November, the new Chinese Leadership will be in place. A lot of hope riding on what economic measures they take in general, but it is agreed by many that they will be focusing on broadening the economic gains more widely amongst the population.
How will this effect commodity prices and the flow on to Australia, the government tax take across the board, our unemployment rate and consumer confidence etc?
– Then by 31 December 2012, whoever has won the US Election has to have made decisions and got them agreed by the congress and the senate to avoid the fiscal cliff which if not enacted promptly will send the US into recession. Some are saying this could happen by the end of January ??
If the Bush era tax cuts expire and various stimulus measures expire automatically as they are due to, it is estimated the US economy will contract by 4 – 4.5% by some estimates.
So a lot can go wrong, some of it pretty quickly, but a lot of moving targets.
Will it all muddle through like it always seems to ?
If Obama gets back, the time to take action is 2013. The Fed has reached about what it can do without resorting to further extraordinary measures, but are pretty worried how they unwind what they have already done.
The Fed have increasingly been saying the Government need to act on the fiscal side, which means more borrowing and spending (like what Labor did so effectly here 4 years ago) but how will any of it ever get approved by US lawmakers.
Going to be an interesting 2013 thats for sure.
Would the Fed really “cancel” the huge amounts of US Government debt (bonds) they have bought up with the “money” they have invented with computer key strokes ?
Yes, if they really have their backs to the wall.
What would be the consequences and what would be the timeline for those consequences?
An early election here or not, small beer compared what else is at stake ?
[leone
Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:08 am | Permalink
To think a person that sprouts this shit could become the US President!
How anyone could vote for such a fruitcake is beyond my understanding. The Mormon religion is almost as whacky as Scientology.]
Leone speaking as a failed subject of Catholic education indoctrination I have to say that tenets of all religions are just as wacky and make as much sense as belief in the FSM. So there are way too many fruitcakes, from both sides of the house, in Aust politics too.
Dave –
I have no doubt at all that the global economic situation remains very unstable and agree with all your points about what stresses may appear.
Indeed.
I was arguing that the topic-du-jour of the OM here – that there is some compelling case for the ALP to go to an early election – is bogus. The possible upside for the ALP is modest while the downside is quite severe.
The global economy turning down is mentioned as a potential reason for the ALP to go early – presumably to either preempt a deficit or to get some sort of mandate for action. I don’t buy it – the political cost of being seen to be avoiding the (in that theory) looming deficit by going early would be massive (“mean and tricky” anyone?). As to the “mandate” see my previous analysis – going early before the need for action is obvious is political suicide; going early after the need for action is obvious doesn’t make sense – you don’t call an election in the middle of a crisis if you have any choice in the matter.
No scientist can predict the near-time future impacts of climate change, but this chap gets pretty close to bragging rights:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46979738/ns/msnbc-up_with_chris_hayes/#49672433
An excitable cattle dog? A LOTO described thus is supposed to be taken seriously as a potential PM. Really?
[Nobody is suggesting Abbott dump the whole running, biking, swimming regimen, however, because that way madness lies. He is famous for making mistakes on the road when he doesn’t get to run around the park like an excitable cattle dog.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/why-tony-needs-to-get-off-his-bike-and-take-a-nap/story-e6frezz0-1226509760340
I agree with Kevin Rudd 100% on this issue:
http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/kevin-rudd-would-rather-fly-into-brisbane-or-melbourne-that-sydney-airport/story-e6frfq80-1226509866720
Sydney airport’s international terminal is an abomination. It is essentially a large shopping centre where you catch a plane after following a compulsory pathway past a lot of shops.
The amenities at the departure gates are way below the level of many airports in Asia.
[Leone speaking as a failed subject of Catholic education indoctrination I have to say that tenets of all religions are just as wacky and make as much sense as belief in the FSM. So there are way too many fruitcakes, from both sides of the house, in Aust politics too.]
kevjohno
My sentiments exactly!
If you really want to be scared, look at this!
https://www.efa.org.au/Issues/Censor/lyons.html
[Sydney airport’s international terminal is an abomination. It is essentially a large shopping centre where you catch a plane after following a compulsory pathway past a lot of shops.
The amenities at the departure gates are way below the level of many airports in Asia.]
Ah! Max Moore-Wilton, you’ve done a great job.
citizen@793
You mean Sydney is actually worse than Melbourne???
I think the whole idea of airport privatisation was a crock as the commercial interests running them are interested not in providing first class airport facilities to serve the national interest but simply profit maximisation. Hence the outrageous parking fees, very limited public transport to Melbourne airport etc.
I must say PB is a kinder, gentler place this morning.
Last night was like being in a pub with a drunk going around trying to pick a fight with all comers even if they were in agreement. 🙁
Chris Rock has some fun with the question of Obama’s race.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EDxOSjgl5Z4
[Jackol
Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 11:29 am | Permalink
….
=you don’t call an election in the middle of a crisis if you have any choice in the matter.]
I don’t agree. If the situation does look seriously bad, Labor could go to the electorate asking for a mandate to implement another stimulus.
The message would be simple. We ran a large stimulus to get us through the GFC, it was the right thing to do, Australia like no other country got thorough without serious unemployment. It needs to be done again, you the voter gets to decide this time, stimulus or unemployment, Labor or Liberal.
It’s time to end this once and for all.
[A live export company at the centre of a cruelty case has revealed it considered killing more than 20,000 WA sheep at sea and dumping them after authorities in Bahrain refused to take the animals.
Exporter Wellard Group said this week it looked at culling the animals aboard the ship under international slaughter standards, but baulked at the idea amid fears it would spark a media frenzy and further turn public opinion against the trade.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/15289634/firm-faced-mass-sheep-kill-at-sea/