Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

The first polling conducted since the Prime Minister’s polarising parliamentary speech on sexism and misogyny finds both leaders with their highest “strongly approve” ratings in well over a year. On voting intention however, the Coalition maintains its solid lead.

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 36%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week: the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. With very good timing, it also offers us Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which unlike the voting intention figures are derived entirely from the most recent period of surveying from Wednesday to Sunday. These figures are also of particular interest in the current environment in that they involve a four (strong approval, approval, disapproval, strong disapproval) rather than two point scale. This finds Julia Gillard gaining two points on strong approval since last month to 9%, her best result since February 2011, while also gaining four points on the milder approval measure to 32%. Her combined approval rating of 41% is her highest since May 2011. Her combined disapproval rating is down three points to 51%, also her best since last May, with strong disapproval steady at 27% and the milder disapproval rating down three to 24%. Opinion of Tony Abbott would appear to have polarised even further: he is up three on strong approval to 9% – his best result since December 2010 – but also up two on strong disapproval to a new high of 31%. His overall approval is up five to 37%, and disapproval down one to 54%. Gillard has opened up a seven-point lead as preferred prime minister of 43-36, its highest since February.

The survey also gauges attitudes to the presidential election, finding Barack Obama favoured by 63% to just 9% for Mitt Romney, with Obama leading 53-18 even among Coalition voters. Respondents were found to have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of their own country than the United States with respect to access to health care and jobs, standard of living for ordinary people, and other such. The US obviously rated higher on “international influence”, but even here 17% felt able to conclude Australia’s was “better”. Respondents were also asked about climate change, with much the same result as when the question was last asked a year ago: 48% believe climate change is occurring as a result of human activity, with 39% plumping for “we are witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,610 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 91 of 93
1 … 90 91 92 93

  7. Zoomster,

    I grew up in Canberra during the big move of the Public Service from Melbourne (mostly) to Canberra during the 1960s.

    The disjunct that so many families experienced was both fascinating and scarey.

    Similarly, the disjunct that young people coming to university in Canberra, or to take up jobs in the CPS or whatever, was interesting: there was an assumption that the world ( = Canberra) would come to them and create their new networks.

    But no, that’s not how things work – as I knew very well when I moved out of the alleged cocoon of Canberra to Melbourne.

    I had to create my own life, and I did.

    This is one of the many useful tips that we could learn from that big dangerous world out there: it’s a really useful thing for young people not just to move out of the family nest, but to move well away.

    I was chatting with one of my students yesterday. She is from Seattle, and goes to a university in New Orleans – about as far across mainland USA as one can manage, and I agree with her: both are fascinating cities and for entirely different reasons.

    But in Australia we tend to stay close to the family tree.

    That’s one reason I’m so proud of my daughter: she consciously left us and headed west, eventually did her degree at UWA, and when last spoken with was in Hamburg.

  8. “@thomwoodroofe: Comparing Rwanda’s UNSC election and standing to Australia’s is ridiculous. Africa has set rotations without any contest. #Lateline”

  9. guytuar, more context? seems like someone is picking on Rwanda …??? like they have no interest in rules based international order or something? poor people ..

  10. fiona,

    In the sixties in Canberra, if you didn’t / couldn’t socialize you were in a bad spot.

    The night-life was limited but if you were in one of those hostels there was plenty of interaction if you wanted it. Three good years for me.

  11. Congratulations to the solicitor from the Western Australia Dept of Planning who won pro Bono lawyer of the year at the Women in Law awards tonight.

    Mrs Shellbell finished a honourable runner up.

  13. “@thomwoodroofe: What evidence is there Iran even voted for us @Lateline @albericie in today’s UN vote? #Lateline”

    Good point. It was a secret ballot from reports I saw this morning

  14. guytaur@4508


    “@thomwoodroofe: Comparing Rwanda’s UNSC election and standing to Australia’s is ridiculous. Africa has set rotations without any contest. #Lateline”

    You learn something every day.

  15. TLBD,

    I was born in Canberra in 1955 and grew up there – my parents honeymooned in one (or maybe two) of the hostels back in the early 1950s…

    Yes, the night-life was limited, and yes, the hostels did provide an alternative. As did friends throughout the 1970s 🙂

    I do take your point about didn’t/couldn’t – but how would those have fared any better in a big city? If anything, Canberra was probably a gentler environment.

  18. I should say that my parents – and they were comparatively reclusive (especially my father) had a very active social life from the late 1950s through to the early 1970s, at which they departed for a two-year posting elsewhere.

    As a teenager observing their and their friends’ activities from the late 1960s onwards, “limited nightlife” is an extraordinarily tame description!!!

  21. fiona,

    You were eight when I arrived here, fresh out of high school in Brisbane.

    BTW, OH and I met in a hostel here.

    I’m sure we can exchange memories, come the witan.

  23. night all, I have to train under 8s cricketers in the morning despite personal lifetime batting aggregate of 7 … thus just a little scared!

  24. I suppose someone has already mentioned this, but this afternoon’s double act between Bishop and Hockey on the SC position was an embarrassing thing. I was embarrassed and I don’t even like the Liberals.

    Hockey led with “it wll be worth it if the SC stops the boats”. Oh_my_dog! Wht can one say of such mind-numbing parochial stupidity? Boats? Really? I’m just imagining going to the delegates in Africa pleading that they should vote for us so we can stop the boats. It’s not as if those folk in Africa ever get any refugees. Nope … it’s all about us.

    Bishop doubled down wanting to know what the SC “could do for the Australian people so they could agree it was all worth it. She then went onto say

    [I think the challenge for the Government presently is to set out clearly what it intends to achieve with a seat on the Security Council, what priorities it has, what initiatives it intends to undertake. ]

    Bishop probably thought this piece of mindless boilerplate would serve, but Samantha Hawley, to her credit, asked the obvious question:

    [ Okay, so in your view what should be the number one priority?]

    Oh oh … uncomfortably long pause {speaking slowly to buy time}

    [Well, … I am not in a position to put in place our priorities because of course I’m in Opposition. But if we were to win government in 12 months’ time then I would look at the international situation at the time and then put in place a number of priorities.]

    Wow! … a number of them …!

    Now comes the invitation to work in Hockey:

    [Joe Hockey, your colleague, has today said that maybe now the United Nations will help us stop the boats. Is that a view that you share? ]

    Bishop tries non-responsive:

    [ That’s a matter that is an ongoing issue for Australia and for nations in our region. ]

    Hawley persists:

    [And an issue, as Joe Hockey says, for the United Nations Security Council? ]

    Once again Bishop obfuscates:

    [ Well the United Nations is involved in any event. Already the UNHCR (United Nations Human Rights Commission) is involved. We are concerned that the Government’s weak border protection laws are drawing boatloads of people to Australia. That is causing major problems for countries in our regions.]

    Hawley know she has Bishop cornered, and goes once more into the breach:

    [Joe Hockey seemed to think if the boats don’t stop then it’s not really a worthy investment going into the United Nations Security Council.

    His words are, “If the United Nations helps us to stop the boats then it’s a worthy investment.” ]

    [JULIE BISHOP: Well that’s a sensible thing to say. Obviously it’s a regional issue. ]

    So Hockey was sensible. A trickle of irregular maritime arrivals to Australia are a threat to the peace and security of the region. Sanctions or war may be posed. That’s what the 140 who voted for Australia had in mind as they swallowed their caramello koalas.

    These people are an extraordinary embarrassment. Even were I Liberal tribalist, I’d be embarrassed. How can such people be allowed anywhere near executive authority?

  26. TLBD,

    (By the way, I am in complete agreement with Janice2: anything ending with -key can only be pluralised to -keys. However, anything ending with -ey can be pluralised to -eys OR -ies.)

    Sorry, I’m still slightly in not very good teacher mode. Roll on the witan, I say!

    I think I should go to bed. Goodnight everyone.

  27. [the 140 who voted for Australia]
    I sense a conspiracy: how many characters allowed in a tweet? If it were 193 we would have hit the jackpot.

  28. Fran,

    You do know that Hockey and Bishop can barely stand to be in the presence of each other.

    Not surprising there is a disconect.

  31. I can just imagine Julie Bishop at the Security Council: “No, all of you have it wrong, THIS is what we must do!”

    Remind me, is Stern Hu still incarcerated?

  35. duck,

    David Beckham bought his son Romeo a jersey that had number 4.

    His reason was to be able to say,

    Romeo, Romeo,

    Wear 4 out there Romeo.

  37. TLBD,

    [Were you exposed to the “tea” in the Chinese restaurants here?]

    One of the monthly (sometimes fortnightly, depending on the finances) treats was to have dinner on Friday night at Happy’s Restaurant in Garema Place. One of the waitresses there was very fond of me, and always made sure that my serve of the chicken and almonds had extra almonds.

    After dinner we would wander around Civic, and depending on the affluence of my parents I would be allowed into Cheshire’s Bookshop (remembering that name needed finding one of the books from there 🙂 ) to choose a Puffin paperback ALL BY MYSELF.

    Hence delights like The Hobbit, and many others too numerous to mention, most of which I still own. Mine was a fortunate childhood indeed.

    I’m supposed to be going to bed NOW, but…

  38. Black Duck

    [I know, everyone is a Shakespeare here.]

    Sorry to be picky but you obviously know you’re confusing GG’s parody with George Gershwin! 🙂

  44. Fiona

    Happy’s restaurant in Garema Place and the Ponderosa cafe in the Monaro Mall were my eating spots. I had a part-time job after school Fridays and on Saturday morning in Swains (stationers). Two pounds per week and 7 shillings tea money – Fridays were a hoot as the shops closed at 5.30 and didn’t open until 7.00pm, enough for a cappuccino (the height of sophistication!) and a hamburger (less so) with enough left over to share a bottle of Barossa Pearl with my cousin who worked full-time in Swains.

    The tea room above the shop was a fug of her cigarette smoke (I never tried) and the Barossa Pearl went down a treat to stave off the boredom of the next couple of hours until closing time.

    I also remember Cheshire’s bookshop very well, and Verity Hewitt’s upstairs in Garema Place. I’m talking 1964-65.

  45. fiona@4542


    TLBD,

    Did you ever go to that Spanish one in Woden? 1972?

    No.

    Happy’s in Garema Place or the shop next to it transformed into something with a Spanish name. Before that, it became The Pendulum with a top jazz trio, much attended after an evening at the flicks.

    There is now a very decent Spanish restaurant in Manuka: Legends.

  46. [fiona

    Posted Friday, October 19, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Zoomster,

    I grew up in Canberra during the big move of the Public Service from Melbourne (mostly) to Canberra during the 1960s.

    The disjunct that so many families experienced was both fascinating and scarey.

    Similarly, the disjunct that young people coming to university in Canberra, or to take up jobs in the CPS or whatever, was interesting: there was an assumption that the world ( = Canberra) would come to them and create their new networks.

    But no, that’s not how things work – as I knew very well when I moved out of the alleged cocoon of Canberra to Melbourne.

    I had to create my own life, and I did.

    This is one of the many useful tips that we could learn from that big dangerous world out there: it’s a really useful thing for young people not just to move out of the family nest, but to move well away.

    I was chatting with one of my students yesterday. She is from Seattle, and goes to a university in New Orleans – about as far across mainland USA as one can manage, and I agree with her: both are fascinating cities and for entirely different reasons.

    But in Australia we tend to stay close to the family tree.

    That’s one reason I’m so proud of my daughter: she consciously left us and headed west, eventually did her degree at UWA, and when last spoken with was in Hamburg.
    ]

    Superb post!

  49. Allan,

    That bookshop, in its many incarnations, was magic.

    There was a restaurant upstairs in Garema Place: Le Rustique, which was half-decent.

Comments Page 91 of 93
1 … 90 91 92 93

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *