Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll’s famous 50-50 result of three weeks ago is left looking more than ever like an outlier, with the latest result coming in four points higher for the Coalition. Meanwhile, the less erratic Essential Research continues to trend slowly Labor’s way.

AAP, for some reason, reveals that the Newspoll to be published in The Australian tomorrow will have the elastic jerking back after the 50-50 anomaly of three weeks ago, with the Coalition now leading 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 33% for Labor (down three), 45% for the Coalition (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). However, Julia Gillard has improved further on her strongly recovering personal ratings last time, holding steady on approval at 36% and dropping two on disapproval to 50%, producing her best net approval rating since April last year. The wide gap which opened on preferred prime minister last time has narrowed only modestly, coming in at 43-33 in Gillard’s favour rather than 46-32. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also improved, his approval up three to 33% and disapproval down five to 55%.

Today’s Essential Research had Labor gaining a further point on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition steady at 47%. Essential has shown Labor gaining five points on the primary vote over six weeks, to reach a level not seen since March last year. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has smartly chosen this week to repeat an exercise from a year ago concerning trust in media personalities, finding Alan Jones among the most famous but least trusted (22% trust against 67% do not trust). The others best recognised were Laurie Oakes and George Negus, with the former slightly edging out the latter on trust (72% compared with 69%). Only 17% registered support for funding cuts to the ABC, with around a third each wanting funding maintained or increased. Opinion on government regulation of the media was fairly evenly spread between wanting more, less and the same.

UPDATE (9/10/12): The latest Morgan face-to-face result, combining its surveys over the past two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 37%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43% and the Greens up half a point to 10.5%. The Coalition’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is steady at 52-48, but they have gained a point on the 2010 election preferences measure to lead 51-49.

Senate-heavy preselection news:

• Barnaby Joyce’s lower house ambitions for the next election have foundered with Bruce Scott’s determination to serve another term as member for Maranoa. Joyce will not challenge Scott for preselection, saying to do so would be “self-indulgent personality politics”, despite the impression many received from his declared opposition to the locally contentious purchase of the vast Cubbie Station by a consortium led by Chinese interests. Unidentified Nationals quoted by Dennis Shanahan of The Australian “maintain Joyce had the numbers for preselection over Scott but it was going to be an ugly and drawn-out affair”.

• Two of the Queensland Coalition Senators whose terms expire after the next election have announced they will not seek re-election, leaving only 2007 ticket leader Ian MacDonald. Ron Boswell, who has been in the Senate since 1983 and was re-elected from number three in 2007, surprised nobody by announcing that at the age of 70 the time had come to bow out. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports those in contention to take his place on the LNP Senate ticket include David Goodwin, the Boswell-backed president of the Queensland Chamber of Commerce and Industry, along with LNP vice-president Gary Spence, LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan, and Barnaby Joyce staffer Matt Canavan. Liberal Senator Sue Boyce today announced she would not contest the next election as she wished to spend more time with her family, while acknowledging her preselection would have faced opposition from forces who perceive her as too moderate. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported that other applicants are likely to include David Moore, who worked on Campbell Newman’s election campaign. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported that hopefuls for a Senate position included David Moore, an LNP operative whose activities as a lobbyist were recently criticised by Clive Palmer.

• Chris Ketter, state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, has been preselected to top the Queensland Labor Senate ticket. The number one candidate from 2007, Senate President John Hogg, will retire. The second and third elected candidates from last time, Claire Moore and Mark Furner, will retain their old positions, a gloomy prospect for Furner in particular.

• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that Labor in South Australia will not promote Penny Wong to the top of its Senate ticket, despite the “bad look” of having the position instead go to one-time Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association state secretary Don Farrell on the strength of his Right faction’s control of between 55% and 60% of the votes at the party’s state convention.

• Long-simmering hostilities between the NSW Liberals and Nationals over the seat of Hume have come to an end, with the Nationals agreeing not to field a candidate against Liberal candidate Angus Taylor in his bid to succeed retiring Liberal Alby Schultz. Senator Fiona Nash had most frequently been nominated as a potential candidate, together with state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson.

• Bob Carr told reporters last week that were Robert McClelland to retire in Barton, he could not think of a better candidate to succeed him than his own successor as Premier, Morris Iemma. However, McClelland insists he has no plans to do so.

• As anticipated, former Australian Medical Association president Bill Glasson has been confirmed as the LNP candidate to run against Kevin Rudd in Griffith. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was once Nationals member for the rural seat of Gregory and a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments. Other names mentioned in relation to the preselection were John Haley, Alfio Russo and John Adermann, who stayed with the process to the end, along with Angela Julian-Armitage and Wayne Tsang, who dropped out at an earlier stage.

• The Mercury published extensive results on Saturday for polling of state voting intention in Tasmania, conducted on behalf of the Liberal Party by ReachTEL. The figures, which make for dismal reading for Labor, are detailed below, and have been thoroughly analysed by Kevin Bonham at the Tasmanian Times. The poll also found Liberal leader Will Hodgman favoured by 57.3% ahead of 22.9% for Premier Lara Giddings and 19.8% for Greens leader Nick McKim, and that 34.4% opposed the forestry “peace deal” against 28.2% support.

	 Lyons	 Bass	Braddon	Denison	Franklin Total
Labor 	 22.3% 	 17.4% 	 23.2% 	 18.5% 	 27.6% 	 22.7%
Liberal  55.7%   62.9%   56.8%   36.5%   46.3%   51.5%
Greens   13.6%   13.6%   14.6%   23.2%   19.4%   17.7%
Other	  8.4% 	  6.1% 	  5.3% 	 21.9% 	  6.7% 	  8.1%
Sample 	  233 	  230 	  232	  241	  238	  1174

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,136 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Fran Barlow

    [It is laughable. The politicians have to find a ‘people’ worthy of voting for them. What a load of moralistic tosh!]

    I know and agree. Surely they only fool themselves, and that can hardly be a challenge.

    It is an example of why I refuse to allow the Liberal and their malformed acolytes, the nationals, to call themselves “conservative”.

    It is this raucous mob of ninnies that have rubbished our westminster traditions:

    1. elected MPs, uncharged/un-convicted, cannot have their vote counted because the LNP decides it is “tainted”

    2. Prime Ministers elected by Parliament are “unelected” because the majority in parliament included non-LNP independents.

    3. They used their majority in Senate to starve an elected Government of funds to force an election on opposition terms.

    4. They attack High Court, Crown appointed Judges to further their political agenda (Michael Kirby).

    No they are NOT conservatives at all. They have become an anti-intellectual quasi-fascist mob. I have no respect for them at all.

  2. fiona:

    Indeed. I’ve met Fiona Wood and she is a thoroughly delightful and personable individual.

    I saw grabs on the news of her speaking at the Bali bombing rememberance event in Perth, and found myself tearing up at her very human reaction to the whole thing.

    She’s a gorgeous person, and who better to speak for the horrors families and the community experienced back then.

  3. [Leroy
    Posted Friday, October 12, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink]

    Interesting article Leroy, I bet News Corpse could erase permanently all those text and emails that came out during The Leveson Inquiry.

    I think it should be taught to kids from a young age that everything they post or do on the internet will stay there forever, cyber safety classes in schools.

    Some wacky conspiracy theories in the comments below it, I should let them in on a little secret.

    The greatest psyops ever in history was the Tin Foil Hat, it allowed Top secret government agencies to read the thoughts of many people who believed it would block out the transmission of thier thoughts, in fact Tin Foil Hats act as a antenna transmitting and receiving radio waves, this was proven in a study at a top university a few years ago.

    A Faraday cage is better for the conspiracy theorist, there are many youtube videos on constructing them cheaply and are light enough to wear while doing chores or out shopping.

  4. Poroti. Uh,uh. The stats I linked to were even worse for NZ turnout relative to voting age population (a stat which underrates Australia as we have a citizen only franchise and lots more permanent residents). You not think Oz is alone in having youngsters not enrolling?

  5. rummel

    there u go again religion for 99 percen of catholics doesn not centre aroung a person, its in our minds and our hearts.

    you again dont know what you are talking about.
    i dont care what you are an athiest or what but dont insult my beliefs
    after all you are the one that had a nun as a gravartar

    i am not entering to any conversation with you on this subject.

    [ 12 October 2012 Last updated at 11:26 GMT
    Hillsborough police crime probe

    The biggest ever independent investigation into police wrongdoing is to be carried out following damning reports into the Hillsborough disaster.

    The IPCC police watchdog and director of public prosecutions have announced they will both launch inquiries into possible crimes committed by police.

    The IPCC said both serving and former officers would be investigated over the deaths of 96 Liverpool fans in 1989.]

  7. For Rummel and co the latest from the West Australian

    [Two female firefighters are being flown to Perth with severe burns after a fire at Two Peoples Bay near Albany this afternoon.

    The Royal Flying Doctor Service is being sent to fly the women to Perth for treatment.

    One woman is understood to have burns to 80 per cent of her body and the other woman has burns to 60 to 70 per cent of her body.]

  8. deflationite – discipline but always a sense of humour wins the day. We sometimes take it too seriously but somehow it mostly works out. Getting to see them as decent adults is pure joy and grandchildren are just magic things. Makes up for all the hard work in parenting.

    I’m orf to bed to get some rest so I can hang around long enough to see at least a couple of greatgrandkids.

    Night all

  9. My Say @ 6049,

    Thank you for the link.

    Now, to your direct knowledge, does this occur in all, or the large majority of, Catholic schools?

    After all, it’s one thing to have something in one’s mission statement, and another thing to actually practise it.

  10. poroti:

    Thanks for that.

    Doesn’t look good. A vollie firey friend on Facebook has made the point that if the plantation the fire is running through is on its first harvest, the fire will die. However, if the plantation is on subsequent regrowths, it will be much, much harder to control.

    No idea what growth status the plantation in question is at.

  11. Gillard doesn’t have a history of making memorable speeches. In fact she’s had a few shockers (ALP conference, U.S. Congress many thought). There could be lot of people who didn’t know she was capable of making a passionate, rousing speech like that, regardless of its content. I just wonder if it will change some perceptions.

  12. I actually think another US politics thread is overdue. What with the election being only a couple of weeks away and being amidst debate season, it might be good to have a concentrated subject there.

    Also, those who don’t care for the topic can be left in peace… unless, they annoyingly go over to the new thread to express their dismay…

    What say you, Monsieur Bowe?

  13. deblonay

    That maybe but i have no interest at all in the USofA elections.

    It is a quasi-democracy in a quasi-western country with outcomes more predictable than will happen in the politburo ‘elections’ in Beijing.

  14. [ @BBCBreaking: UK Deputy PM Nick Clegg vows to fight £10bn ($16bn) welfare cuts announced by coalition govt partners.]

    Which is just an example of life in a hung parliament. Partners of convenience can’t keep all their promises or uphold their principles at all times. It’s the same here, but no one, including the media, recognizes it or takes it into account.

  15. I mean the photogenic bumbling obama will “win” or the photogenic bumbling rominy will win… wow!!

    But the elites who run the country will be happy either way.

  16. Swamprat re Obama et al
    I think Obama has been a failure in failing to tackle the real economic criminals..wall street and the bankers

    By contrast Roosevelt in 1933 moved against a whole set of econopmic criminals and carried his massive support with him
    in the fight for the New Deal

    Obama is timid and tentative
    However the Repugnants/Tea Party are awful beyound belief…. worse in all regards than the Democrats

  17. Views update
    On video page: 1,047,465
    In “Gillard” search results: 1,060,967

    Slowing down I think. Time of day would affect the rate, but we don’t know where most of the interest is.

  18. swamprat

    If GOP’s Romney defeats Obama then another Global Financial Crises will follow.
    Also likely a war with Iran.
    Obama reelected as President avoids that. Both of those matter to us here in Australia.

  19. deblonay

    [However the Repugnants/Tea Party are awful beyound belief…. worse in all regards than the Democrats]

    Yes but that is an issue of internal USofA politics. The same issues apply to every “democratic”, or “quasi-democratic” country.

    Why should we care or get in a lether about it? We have no ties with USofA and very few migrants.

    Their crazy international thuggery will stay the same no matter who wins.

    I am really stunned how in the past few years the USofA soap opera is considered “serious” amongst normally intelligent Australians.

    But admittedly everyone has a hobby, no matter how bizarre.

  20. two volunteer firefighters on WA’s southcoast have been air-lifted to Perth with life threatening injuries fighting an out of control bushfire there.

    Oh dear… I hope they pull through.

    So do I, most sincerely. Without Volunteer fire-fighters, this whole area, tinder dry, would have been burnt out in Oct 2002’s ferocious bushfires. So often I look at the treasures we could not take with us, and think of them with such gratitude.

    If the Anzac Spirit lives on in Oz, imo it does so in our volunteer fire, swift-water-rescue & other emergency service personnel (esp first responders) and Life Savers.

    While I’m at it, congratulations and my very best wishes to the several PBers (& relatives, friend) who are also members of our volunteer emergency services.

  21. [confessions
    Posted Friday, October 12, 2012 at 10:25 pm | PERMALINK

    All I know is one of the vollies is a woman who has burns to 80% of her body.

    Apparently their truck rolled. The fire is raging out of control in a tree plantation, but no threat to lives or properties.

    Nasty, rollover and fire over run.]

    At least she’s in the best state for treatment, even if Prof Fiona Wood is on Bali commemoration duties. What a great acquisition she was for Australia!

  22. 6051
    [It is an example of why I refuse to allow the Liberal and their malformed acolytes, the nationals, to call themselves “conservative”.


    No they are NOT conservatives at all. They have become an anti-intellectual quasi-fascist mob. I have no respect for them at all.]

    Me either.

  23. [At least she’s in the best state for treatment, even if Prof Fiona Wood is on Bali commemoration duties. What a great acquisition she was for Australia!]


  24. ON Wednesday night, the Prime Minister’s communications director, John McTernan, was with a group of Labor staffers in a Canberra bar.

    Realising who they were from their conversation, the 19-year-old barmaid commented that “Julia Gillard’s done well in Parliament this week”.

    “Were you watching Question Time?” McTernan asked. “No”, the young woman said. “I’ve been reading”

    Jezebel is the popular American website for women that lauded Gillard as “one badass motherf—–” after what it called her “epic speech on sexism”.

    It might be US-based, but in this internet age – as McTernan’s exchange with the barmaid illustrated – national borders mean little.

    Gillard’s critics scornfully dismissed the extraordinary and largely web-based overseas coverage of her fierce attack on Tony Abbott and her defiant announcement that she would no longer put up with sexism and misogyny.

    The speech was initially reported with more restraint in Australia because it was placed in the context of Peter Slipper’s grubby text messages and the government hypocrisy and bumble-footedness that preceded his forced resignation as speaker.

    Former Liberal leader John Hewson told Sky News: “Yes, the Prime Minister gave a great speech, but I gather the band played pretty well as the Titanic went down as well.”

    There was a fair bit of truth in that comparison.

    The Slipper affair was a political disaster of the Government’s own making.

    It offered him the speakership so he would defect from the Coalition, even though it was obvious to anyone with an ounce of political judgment, and the slightest knowledge of Slippery Pete’s character, that he was an accident waiting to happen.

    And, when the text message scandal made his position untenable this week, Gillard’s lieutenants proved incapable of dealing with the situation and left the job of pushing him out to two independents.

    Despite all this, however, it was clear within days that the PM’s gender-based declaration of war had made quite an impact with many Australian women.

    The way it went viral through the internet was a significant factor in ensuring it registered as a powerful moment.

    The Slipper affair is likely to fade fairly quickly, but indications are that the Gillard speech will be remembered for a long time.

    Whether she wins or loses next year’s election, it will be seen as a pivotal point in her prime ministership.

    What stood out was her anger. She almost quivered with rage (whether genuine or confected) as she pointed at Abbott across the chamber, quoting statements and citing actions that she said demonstrated an intolerable attitude to women.

    As Gillard spoke, you could see Abbott’s anger building, too – no doubt made worse by the knowledge that, if he matched her aggression in response, he would play into her hands.

    The Opposition Leader might have put forward socially conservative views and made some controversial statements about women over the years, but to brand him a misogynist was over the top.

    Anyone who thought the Gillard-Abbott relationship could not get worse should think again.

    After this, it will be absolutely toxic.

    But how it will all play with voters is unclear.

    The Coalition view is that people in marginal seats, the outer-suburban battlers, could not give a toss about arguments over misogyny. They’re concerned about living costs, services, government competence and asylum seeker boat arrivals.

    Also, as one Liberal said to me yesterday: “The speech might appeal to some women, but how do you think men will react?”

    A Labor adviser, though, argued that voters of both genders not rusted on to the Coalition would approve of the PM showing passion and fighting for a cause.

    There is confidence among Gillard supporters that the toughness of the attack will widen her lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister. We will see.

    What is not in doubt, though, I would suggest, is that the response to the speech strengthens Gillard’s grip on the Labor leadership. She has erected for herself an extra barrier of protection.

    If Kevin Rudd moved against her now, in addition to all the other difficulties, he would have to deal with an enraged sisterhood.

    One of the PM’s critics within her own party even suggested yesterday that this was the primary reason for the speech.

    “It is Gillard and McTernan working up the sand-bagging for any caucus push against her,” he said.

    But there is very little sign of any such push developing, even in the wake of the Slipper debacle.

    Abbott, with his so-called “women problem”, was Gillard’s target – and any leadership insurance was a bonus.

    LABOR had been concerned by the previous weekend’s media blitz involving Abbott’s wife, Margie, along with his daughters, to soften the Opposition Leader’s aggressive image and rebrand him as a cuddly Downton Abbey-watching SNAG.

    The exercise was carried out brilliantly.
    here is long form of article

    Labor strategists, though, breathed a sigh of relief when Parliament resumed and Abbott reverted to his attack dog persona.

    One of them said: “A rebranding job like that takes longer than 72 hours.”

    Laurie Oakes is political editor for the Nine Network. His column appears every Saturday in the Herald Sun

  25. Swamprat…re US
    Actually we do have very close ties with the US..see Afghan war and it’s horrors
    This is of course a problem while we have leaders of both parties who are croniesof the US leadership

    Most Australians leaders are wimps in this regard./ my life time only Gough Whitlam had the courage to strike out on a different road and in the end they got him did’n’t they

    I always believe that Kerr was a CIA stooge( but then what did Wikileaks reveal about Sen Arbib and his frequent visits to the US Embassy ??

  26. deblonay

    [Actually we do have very close ties with the US]

    Yes our “close ties” are mainly two:

    – the disloyal political elite

    – the MSM.

    Both groups see their advantage in serving the USofA .

    Apart from that we have no traditional ties to the USofA

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