Morgan phone poll: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bonner

A new phone poll corroborates Newspoll. Or does it?

NOTE: Apologies for the difficulties we are experiencing with comments while the new design is being implemented. They are being attended to. Please note that the site is experiencing broader problems in some browsers. If the background to the site is grey, try viewing it in another browser.

Roy Morgan has published a poll which, so far as the headline figure goes, is extremely interesting in that it a) is consistent with the Newspoll result, and b) was conducted by phone, and thus cannot be anticipated to suffer the pro-Labor bias typical of Morgan’s face-to-face polling. However, the headline figure to which I refer is from respondent-allocated preferences, which for so long have been flowing to Labor in confoundingly weak proportions in Morgan’s face-to-face polls. In this poll however they have flowed to Labor inordinately strongly. If using the measure which allocates preferences according to how they flowed at the previous election, which I and all other pollsters recommended, the Coalition has a somewhat more comfortable lead of 52.5-47.5. The primary vote results are striking in being high for both major parties: 39.5% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition, against 8% for the Greens and a very low 5.5% for others.

The poll was evidently conducted from Monday to Thursday (despite some confusion in Morgan’s heading) from a sample of 668, with a margin of error of about 3.8%. Other questions were also posed by this poll, so stay tuned for more detail.

NOTE: As you may have noticed, Crikey has a new look and its implementation is characteristically being accompanied by teething problems – most seriously the failure of comments thread pagination, which has caused the previous 5000-plus comments thread to not work terribly well. Presumably this one should be okay though, for at least as long as it remains fairly short.

UPDATE: Further findings from the Morgan poll are that Julia Gillard recorded a fairly solid approval rating of 40%, with disapproval of 51%, which represents changes of 3% and 6% since Morgan last posed the question in January. Tony Abbott meanwhile is respectively down four to 32% and up four to 60%. On the question of better prime minister, Gillard has remained steady on 45% while Abbott has dropped four points to 37%. Abbott has also lost further ground to Malcolm Turnbull on the question of best leader for the Liberal Party, the former down three to 19% and the latter up five to 42%. That leaves Abbott nearly level with Joe Hockey, who is down one to 18%. Julia Gillard continues to trail Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, with Gillard up three to 22% and Rudd up one to 34%.

And not forgetting …

Seat of the week: Bonner

To commemorate Labor’s improved position in the polls, Seat of the Week takes its first excursion to the Coalition side of the electoral pendulum.

The Brisbane electorate of Bonner extends south-westwards from the bayside Wynnum-Manly area to Mount Gravatt. It was created at the 2004 election, and has remarkably been left unchanged by the two redistributions conducted since. The seat is also remarkable for having changed hands with each election, starting with the Liberals’ success in overhauling a 1.9% notional margin in 2004. The defeated Labor candidate was Con Sciacca, a Keating government minister who held Bowman from 1987 to 1996 and again from 1998 to 2004. Sciacca took the safer option when the transfer of Wynnum-Manly to the new seat left Bowman with a notional Liberal margin of 3.1%, but he was unable to withstand an adverse swing of 2.4%. Labor appeared to be especially hampered by the loss of Kevin Rudd’s personal vote in those areas of the electorate which had previously been in Griffith.

The inaugural member for Bonner thus became Ross Vasta, a staffer to Senator Brett Mason, former restaurant owner, and the son of noted Brisbane barrister and Bjelke-Petersen era Supreme Court justice Angelo Vasta. Vasta’s main source of publicity in his one term in parliament was his involvement in the scandal surrounding misuse of electoral printing allowances, for which he was cleared by the Director of Public Prosecutions shortly before the 2007 election. He was always going to have his work cut out defending the Coalition’s most marginal Queensland seat at the 2007 election, and duly fell victim to a 5.2% swing which compared favourably with a statewide swing of 7.5%.

Bonner was then held for a term by Kerry Rea, previously a Brisbane councillor representing a ward that included the area around Mount Gravatt. Vasta meanwhile returned to his old job with Brett Mason and unsuccessfully contested the Wynnum-Manly ward for the Liberals at the 2008 Brisbane council election. The newly constituted Liberal National Party then gave him the chance to recover his old seat, which did not seem a likely proposition in the political climate of the time. While that had certainly changed by the time of the 2010 election, Vasta’s victory on the back of an emphatic 7.4% swing was a serious disappointment for Labor, making Bonner the “safest” of its nine notionally held Queensland seats to fall to the LNP.

Labor’s preselected candidate for the next election is Laura Fraser Hardy, an associate with Hall Payne Lawyers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bonner”

Comments Page 31 of 32
1 30 31 32
  1. A funny but sad detailing of the Repugs version of the History of America. A sample

    [1619-1808: Africans set sail for America in search of freedom: “Other than Native Americans, who were here, all of us have the same story.”—Michele Bachmann

    1607: First welfare state collapses: “Jamestown colony, when it was first founded as a socialist venture, dang near failed with everybody dead and dying in the snow.”—Dick Armey]

  2. @Captain Obvious/1500

    Your not being Captain Obvious here.

    1. Negotiations to renegotiation will cost time and possibly money.
    2. if Negotiations fail it’s a reset.

    3. Negotiations will take a few years.

    4. It will not be ubiquitous and 100% coverage of Coalition NBN.

    It’s one of the reasons why in NZ they moved from FTTN to FTTP.

  3. Swan is asking for Abbott to apologise for his statement on 2gb this morning that the PM should be in Indonesia speaking to SBY, as he is in fact in NY as well.

  4. CaptainObvious:

    [It’s probably worth taking Grand Mal’s NBN survey …]

    Yes it’s a pun, but I’m wondering — why this one? Please explain the rationale.

  5. Oh gosh that would be the sweetest victory on election night if Indi is one of the Liberal losses (preferably to Labor, or if not, a respectable Independent).

    Incidentally, the Country Alliance is a bit of an underestimated force in rural Victoria. It came second in Shepparton at the state election, and almost won an MLC seat in Northern Victoria. They registered as a Federal party last year. They could come into play in Indi if it goes down to preferences.

    Katter’s Party could as well, if they get involved in Victoria.

  6. [Joe O’Brien ‏@joeobrien24

    RT @JoeHockey @joeobrien24 Don’t just buy the spin…LOOK AT THE OUTCOME a $44bn DEFICIT which was meant to be a $22bn deficit originally. ]

  7. (click google link)

    [Labor industrial relations regime under siege in Queensland
    From: The Australian September 24, 2012 12:00AM

    THE Gillard government’s attempts to build a national workplace system are in jeopardy after Queensland threatened to take the unprecedented step of withdrawing more than 300,000 small businesses employees from the federal arena and re-employ them under state awards.

    Queensland Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie, furious at attempts by Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten to try to force state governments to pay contractors the same as their own public servants, said the state was “seriously considering” applying to get back some of the industrial relations powers referred to the commonwealth under Anna Bligh.]
    Whilst awkward, a good bun fight with the QLD govt on protecting workers rights could look good for the Fed govt.

  8. Putting on my ” thick as two short planks” hat, can someone, anyone, explain what ‘cccp’ and ‘upside down sideways in out or whatever Mary’ does, is and where it can be found on Google Chrome.

  9. Apparently Romney’s polling has drifting sharply ‘south’ in Florida over the last few weeks:

    Obama 50-46; Amongst Indies 50-41, Dems 83-13; (Not sure why on these figures Obama is not better than 50-46)

    Apparently 58-37 Indie Florida voters think 47% comments inappropriate

    Florida Voters trust Obama over Romney on the economy 50-46

    Romney now has net unfavourable in Florida of 7 (down from 49-47 to 44-51) while Obama is + 4 (51-47).

    Strongest demographics for Romney are seniors (53-45), whites (53-42), men (51-44). Sadly, for Romney and Santorum, the non-smart voters aren’t polled.

    Apparently those “very excited” about voting include 72% Democrats and 68% Republicans. Most excited about voting are Black voters, 82% of whom say they are very excited, which wouldn’t help Romney much.

    Apparently 52-39 Florida voters think Romney should release all of his tax returns for the last 12 years.

    Full poll: Public Policy Polling

    Interestingly, Fox has Obama further ahead in polling than does PP.

  10. @1509

    It’s probably worth taking Grand Mal’s NBN survey …

    Yes it’s a pun, but I’m wondering — why this one? Please explain the rationale.

    Errr…because Petit Mal would be heightist? 😉

    Stop chasing squirrels, Fran. Lighten up. Get some air. There may be special providence in the fall of a sparrow, but there is no rationale to these puns. That’s kind of the point.

    And, yes, if people can’t do the NBN survey ‘cos Australian Internet sucks…well…yes…erm…

  11. Another good start to the week for That’s Just Tone. Indo, New York, whatever. Stop the boats!

    Best LOTO … like, evah!

    I wonder if 2GB listeners are now better informed about current affairs than when they woke up this morning.

  12. If we really must justify and explain puns then here goes.
    Grand mal may be defined as ‘epilepsy in which the attacks involve loss of consciousness and tonic spasms of the musculature followed by generalized jerking’.

    I consider Talcum’s jerking around on his NBN policy to fit in with this definition, as does his loss of consciousness when it comes to explaining why Australians don’t deserve the fibre to the home broadband he’s happy to help provide for the citizens of Spain and France.

  13. @ABCNews24: The Shadow Treasurer @JoeHockey to address the media in Sydney. #ABCNews24 will bring you this live at approx 12:15pm EST #auspol #budget

  14. Good Dog! Katharine Murphy just published my comment, wonder how long it remains …..

    Hacka most women remember when Abbott was a Howard Minister

    – he banned RU586,
    – he publicly stated he thought the number of abortions in Australia was too high and
    – when Workchoices was introduced many retail workers had their hours and penalty rates slashed think Spotlight Stores

    He has made clear statements that he wants to control the fertility and sexual activity of women and in the words emblazoned on Senator Kerry Nettles T-shirt in Parliament one day “Keep your rosaries off my ovaries”

  15. Catching up after a weekend away (and about twenty minutes trying to get what I thought was the LAST page of comments, 31…)

    On lice treatments:

    A hairdresser friend of mine many years ago used studies done by a University in Queensland to revolutionise our school’s approach to lice treatment. I believe the following is now accepted widely throughout Victoria:

    Lice don’t live off hair. A lice in a hat or on bed linen is a dead louse walking. So all that wash bedlinen, don’t wear hats (unless you’ve taken it straight off someone else’s head and plonked it on yours) stuff is nonsense.

    You get lice by your hair coming into contact with someone else’s. So it’s important than everyone in the family, not just the child, has lice treatment.

    The BEST lice treatment is very very cheap. We used it for years, with great effect.

    You need: 1 lice comb (steel teeth) and 1 bottle of very cheap conditioner (quality doesn’t matter).

    Slosh generous portions of conditioner onto hair.

    Comb all the conditioner out with the lice comb.

    Repeat at least every 3 days (our children did it as part of their hair washing routine).

    Apparently, the conditioner stuns the lice for about 20 minutes, so you comb them out. The eggs are loosened and come too.

    The reason you repeat after a few days is to get any eggs you missed which might have hatched.

  16. BH

    No, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

    It’s a very conservative electorate, after all, and a very caring community.

    What’s more, it’s ‘small town’ – enough people know her living arrangements to know when she’s straight out lied about them (as she did in ‘The Good Weekend’ article).

    She really has gone to ground over the last few months. No local media releases since May, and only a couple of brief comments in local stories, obviously when she was contacted to comment.

  17. guytaur

    Thank you for all the heads-up you post on the pressers etc on ABC24. You provide a very useful service to those who, like me, don’t have it on all the time. Thanks.

  18. Just got an e-mail from Crikey in response to my complaints yesterday.

    Thank you for the feedback. My understanding is that the IT team are currently in the process of changing the comments layout and it will return to the traditional top to bottom layout very soon.

  19. Had to tuen Hockey off because I hate the way his little mouth purses up around “billion”. But I think he loves saying the big figures and doing a bit of eleventy accounting.

  20. [Senator Penny Wong ‏@SenatorWong

    .@JoeHockey Labor will honour Peter Costello’s Charter of Budget Honesty. Still waiting for your commitment.. ]

  21. Bloody hell! Hockey is delivering a speech, as far as I can understand it, on nitpicking about budget forecasting against delivery. As far as Hockey is concerned the deficit is the big thing and that’s going to blow out. Bad and untrustworthy financial managers, etc etc.

    Surely he could learn from the example of Dutton. Although Dutton is a first class tosser whose main claim to fame is his frequent flyer point credits for being thrown out of parliament, he has at least learned one thing.

    That is, if you’ve got nothing sensible to say, you’re better off saying nothing. You’ll never get Dutton talking or debating public health for that reason. Hockey apparently can’t help himself once he gets in front of a camers or microphone.

    If he even believed any of that bullshit he’s spouting, he could deliver a much more newsworthy conference by saying,
    “Ladies and gentlemen, I’m here to tell you that the world’s credit ratings agencies have got it entirely wrong in the way they’ve rated Australia as 3-star. We are not.

    International investors are wrong too to have such confidence in Australia’s future. Our future is crap unless this government is replaced immediately.

    And the Reserve Bank has been lying to us when they pretend that nothing much is wrong with the economy. They have been reckless in their public duty of fiscal responsibility.”

    That approach would make more sense than what he is attempting at present.

  22. The Hockey presser was fun to watch, he raved about the incompetent Govt etc. But the journalists asked him questions he did not want to answer, tobacco excise, car industry support, so he ran away.

  23. Hockey’s stupidity was on show with his answer to the tobacco excise question. He says he is always in favour of lower taxes, except raising the excise lowered the amount of tax paid.

    The buffoon could not even talk his way out of this simple mess.

  24. Now I can say with some confidence that the federal government net debt is over $100 billion. In fact $147 billion as at 30 June 2012.

  25. guytaur@1540,
    I hate internal server errors no matter how unavoidable they are. 😡

    Me too! I’ve just been told by the Crikey homepage, when I went to access the Daily Mail, that I was ‘Forbidden to enter the site’ !!!

    So I came in here through the back door of a daily mail that was a few days old in my e-mail Inbox.

    I may get a bit bolshy now and then, but I’m really just a big pussycat at heart. 🙂

  26. Touch wood that the site’s current operability is long-term, but I certainly can’t promise anything on that count. Past experience suggests these periods of turbulence take time to dissipate. All I can really do is offer my apologies for the inconvenience – I can offer no insight into what the problems are and how long they’re going to last.

  27. Davidwh
    [Now I can say with some confidence that the federal government net debt is over $100 billion. In fact $147 billion as at 30 June 2012.]

Comments Page 31 of 32
1 30 31 32

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *