The electorate of Parramatta has existed without interruption since federation, shrinking over time from Sydney’s broad north-western outskirts into the immediate area of the town itself. It presently extends from the Parramatta town centre southwards to Granville, westwards to Wentworthville, northwards to Carlingford and eastwards to Rydalmere. This area is distinguished by a high level of ethnic diversity, being home to particularly large Chinese, Indian and Lebanese communities.
Parramatta was once a conservative stronghold, having only been won for Labor prior to 1977 with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929. Notable members included Joseph Cook, who held the seat for its first 20 years and served as Liberal prime minister from June 1913 to September 1914; Sir Garfield Barwick, member from 1958 to 1964, who served as External Affairs Minister and Attorney-General in the Menzies government before going on to an immensely controversial tenure as Chief Justice of the High Court; and Philip Ruddock, who began his parliamentary career after winning the seat at a by-election in September 1973, adding 7.0% to what had been an extremely narrow margin in 1972.
The watershed in the seat’s history came with a redistribution in 1977 that effectively changed the existing seat’s name to Dundas, of which Philip Ruddock became the inaugural member, while creating a new seat of Parramatta that extended deep into Sydney’s Labor-voting west. The newly safe Labor seat was won by John Brown, the Hawke government Tourism Minister remembered for his dislike of koalas and inappropriate use of his ministerial desk. Brown resigned as minister in 1987 after admitting (which he would later retract) that he had misled parliament, and he was succeeded in Parramatta by Paul Elliott in 1990.
Redistributions in 1984 and 1993 returned the seat to the marginal column by pulling it back to the east, reducing the margin to 1.0% ahead of the 1993 election. Elliott was able to increase his margin on that occasion, but he was unseated by a 7.1% swing in 1996. Incoming Liberal member Ross Cameron held out against a relatively mild swing of 1.1% in 1998, and further survived a highly unfavourable redistribution that pushed the electorate southwards in 2001 by picking up a swing of 3.6%. Shortly before the 2004 election he felt compelled to tell Fairfax’s Good Weekend magazine that he had committed numerous infidelities throughout his married life, and he emerged from the election as one of only three Coalition members to have lost their seat.
Labor’s new member was Julie Owens, classically trained pianist, former chief executive of the Association of Independent Record Labels and member of the Left faction. Owens faced an early challenge when another substantial distribution ahead of the 2007 election pushed the seat back to the north, but she easily accounted for the notional Liberal margin of 0.8% with a 7.7% swing consistent with the western Sydney trend. The redistribution pendulum swung heavily the other way when the seat absorbed the northern half of its abolished southern neighbour Reid ahead of the 2010 election, boosting the margin to 9.5%. There were suggestions this might result in Owens contesting Greenway, which took over the western end of the old Parramatta around Pendle Hill and Kings Langley, with Parramatta going to Owens’ factional mentor, Reid MP Laurie Ferguson. However, Ferguson was instead accommodated in Werriwa and Owens stayed put, surviving a 5.5% swing that reduced her margin to 4.4%.
The Liberals have preselected Martin Zaiter, a 29-year-old partner in a local accountancy firm, who was chosen ahead of a field that included the unsuccessful candidate from 2010, engineer Charles Camenzuli. There has been ongoing speculation over the years that Ross Cameron might seek a return to politics, but invariably in relation to other seats.
Tell you what Abbott
Anger does give power. Just not the way you think it should.
I just managed to move a 6’x4′ fully laden book cabinet 15 metres, and part of that was through a doorway, all by myself!
Bugger intimidating peeps, women, blokes, or children, use that anger positively to move furniture. 😆
What’s that song again?
Mod Lib
I have conceded that Latham was a Labor mistake many times.
Do try to keep up.
Also, in trying to keep up, refer to some earlier advice I had given you. It involves sitting and rotating.
victoria
My very Campbell Newmanish looking ex brother in law (also ex army) lives at Diamond Creek, so I wondered….
[Karen Middleton @KarenMMiddleton 25m
RT @PhillipCoorey: PM Gillard and T Abbott to be absent from Parliament for the next two days. Attending diggers’ funerals in WA]
victoria et al, I am talking about what I think will happen and why, I am not saying that these are my views.
Just to state my position again (lost track of how many times have done this):
I support on shore processing and no detention, certainly not of children, ever.
Mandatory health and security checks….fine. The Health one takes about 2 days (I do them). I can’t see why a security check needs to take more than a few weeks. Hell, they let you look after children in Australia after a criminal record check that just takes a few days, so surely we can let people walk around the streets with a quicker check.
I completely reject both the ALP and Lib positions on asylum seekers and have consistently since the ALP introduced mandatory detention right up to the time Gillard added Australia to the list of countries involved in rendition.
zoomster
I actually live in the Greensborough area, but i went to Northland today which is in Preston. This man was of medium height, and was shopping with his partner.
Zoomster (and Victoria),
Spooky: that sounds like one degree of separation to me!
@Mod Lib/1705
So I expect you voting greens next election ?
Oh for goodness sake.
This poll showed public opinion of Newman has shifted from the soft categories to the hard disapprove category.
The exact same thing has happened to both Gillard and Abbott. This isn’t something you can spin into gravitas. It’s firm judgement from the electorate. If you break your promises, backflip, go against the public mood, you get slaugtered by the electorate’s high expectations gap, complexity aversion and uncertainty aka the unhinging
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
[ Leave Margie out of this. ]
Just shows how desperate Abbott is that he had to bring in his family members to try and pull him out of the mess he’d jumped so witlessly into.
I bet the daughters are really impressed with their dad at the moment. Especially the one who called him a bible bashing loser or some some such. 😉
We are having a tropical downpour. Couldn’t see anything much anymore so assume that we were actually in the raincloud. We must be getting 20-30 mm. Local flooding has to be happening.
david,
Timmy is the underling of the runt!
The Nats hate the runt adn dislike timmy even more.
The Nats will have their own man in the role. Possibly the Borg with Clive’s/Gina’s/ China’s support
Mod Lib
Fwiw, I do not like the asylum seeker arrangements in place now, or those under Howard. But I have come to the realisation that the Australian public believe otherwise. I am also of the view that the main issue is that Australians dont want refugees from the ME coming here via boat. Is it xenophobic? Yes. But there we have it
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:36 pm | Permalink
@Mod Lib/1705
So I expect you voting greens next election ?]
For a referendum on asylum seeker issues absolutely.
If it is a general election then I make my mind up based on the circumstances (I do envy you guys who don’t care what your party does and just support them blindly anyway!!!).
[I hear when O’Farrell has finished with teachers he is coming after the lazy public servants in the fire brigades.]
Ru, you call?
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@CraigEmersonMP Premier BOF of NSW wants GST rate to be increased. Another entree to Abbott’s main course? Enjoy.
When Mr Abbott drags his wifething and daughterthings into the public arena, you know he is in a bad way.
[victoria
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
Fwiw, I do not like the asylum seeker arrangements in place now, or those under Howard.]
Good on you!
Scorpio,
That would be “lame, gay, churchy loser”:
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/abbott-the-lame-gay-churchy-loser-20100810-11xih.html
That would be 20-30 mm per hour. Bucketing.
Boerwar
Hope you dont get washed away!
I see that the greatest retail politician of all time is giving Mr Abbott some tips about how to comport himself. One suggestion from Mr Joyce would be to stay away from flooded creeks.
Don’t know what his partner looks like! He’s shortish and baldish (as I said, Campbell Newmanish).
I was at Preston market (fleetingly) today, coming home from an ALP Country Labor meeting (and I was with someone else, and tired, so no, it wasn’t an opportunity for the Victorian chapter to meet…)
BUT I must come down to Melbourne sometime soon to see the Napoleon exhibition, which closes Oct 7, and school holidays are upon us, so??
Spur212 @ 1709
But where has Gillard legitimately broken a promise, backflipped and gone against the public mood?
She promised a price on carbon – delivered.
Stop promoting your mob’s Liberal Party lies and spin.
Centre
You seem to be under the very mistaken impression that I’m pro Abbott. I’m of the view that he needs to be gotten rid of by any means necessary
v
Yeh. I was wondering what was going to happen when we crossed Manila yesterday. We were awash for a fair bit of the trip. Not to worry, we made it there and back.
spur212
As I said, read Obama’s Way
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obama
then come back and tell us Rudd-lover Possum Comitatus’ received theory.
And, if your really game, also read
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/pm-denies-tension-with-rudd-over-nofly-zone-20110311-1br7h.html
and think to yourself, ask yourself, what the hell was going on?
Check out the dates.
Who knew the overall picture versus who was going on a fantastic ego ride?
And who got it totally wRONg?
It wasn’t the PM JG, was it?
Hey Boewar,
Who is looking after Bluey and feeding him prawns and KG Whiting while you are having a ball on your holiday?
[Centre
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink
Spur212 @ 1709
But where has Gillard legitimately broken a promise, backflipped and gone against the public mood?]
Happy to help Centre:
Mining tax:
1. The mining boom was the only reason the economy was good under Howard
2. Actually, the mining boom didn’t contribute enough to the economy
3. Hey, I know….lets tax miners. We calculate we will raise $10 billion
4. Oops, sorry miners, now well cut the tax- but, hey presto!, it still makes about $10 billion (ish)
5. A few weeks later: Ummm, oops….. Actually, it was $20 billion (ish) originally not $10 billion, that’s how we can cut it and make the same amount
6. OK, perhaps this aint going so well…..lets start this again
7. We are going to refund the states royalties to the miners- deal?
8. What! WA is raising royalties- how dare they?
9. What! Qld wants to raise royalties- how dare they?
10. What! NSW wants to raise royalties- how dare they?
11. Any chance we can start this from scratch again please? We promise we’ll nail it this time…
Asylum seekers:
1. There is no queue
2. There is a queue and Malaysian solution puts AS at the back of it
3. We have a solution: we are sending AS to East Timor
4. Oops, we forgot to speak to East Timor
5. Lets put a freeze on all Srilankan and Afghani applications
6. Why? Um….well….there is an election….could it be that?
7. We don’t support the Pacific solution
8. We are restarting the Pacific solution in Manus Island
9. We don’t support Nauru solution as it hasn’t signed convention
10. We will send AS to Malaysia even though they haven’t signed
11. Oops, the High Court has thrown the Malaysian solution out
12. It was dog whistling when Howard was mean to AS to stop boats
13. We are deliberately being mean to AS to stop them coming on boats
14. We are determined to put the offshore processing to the house (repeated 3 times) to document Coalition members voting against it
15. Oops, perhaps we wont put it to the House (it turns out we might lose and one or more of my own members may not rock up!!!)
16. The surge in boats after we took power had nothing to do with Australian policy it was push factors
17. The surge in boats was due to Australian policy so we must change it and the Parliament must accept our/Oaky’s Malaysia-plus-Nauru option
18. We will not be opening up Nauru
19. We will be opening up Nauru
Carbon price:
1. It’s the greatest moral challenge of our time
2. Actually, lets do nothing for 3 years
3. I can’t believe Rudd followed my advice- how stupid. Lets dump him
4. We need to wait for community consensus
5. Hang on, actually lets just introduce it despite community anger
6. There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead
7. Actually, there will be a carbon tax under a government I lead
8. Lets arrange a community forum
9. Lets not have the community forum
10. We will tax the top 1000 polluters
11. Hang on, I meant the top 500 polluters….oops!
12. We will set the price and then maintain a floor price of $15
13. Ooops…..lets can the floor price and let it drop from $23 to $10 and join the Euro price
Does that help?
Me in August
[bluegreen
Posted Wednesday, August 1, 2012 at 11:21 am | Permalink
I think Labor don’t do enough perlocautionary statements.
They have been doing a lot of “labor is” “labor stands for” sort of stuff, but that is too passive.
They need to do much more “Believe in labor” “support labor” “vote labor” sort of stuff.
And I would use aged care, ndis and environment for this.
If you want a better aged care system you will vote labor
If you want to care for the disabled you will support labor
If you care about the environment you must vote labor
etc etc
]
Prime Minister, this weekend
[If you want a National Disability Insurance Scheme – you must vote Labor.
If you want a Plan for School Improvement – you must vote Labor.
If you want a stronger and fairer future – you must vote Labor.
And as every Queenslander knows today – if you want jobs not job cuts – you must vote Labor.]
Spot the similarity!!!!!!!
😀
I would have thought the most recent poll in Queensland is much too small to be indicative and much too far out from any election.
We on the progressive side cannot have it both ways. For months our brief has been, “elections too far away to rely on polls” so now things have turned sour – or appears to be the case in Queensland for the State conservatives, it is legitimate for their supporters here to use the same arguments as we have been using for months at the Federal level.
What can be said I suppose is that the decline in Bjelke Newman’s popularity has been fairly quick and steep in the relative short time from the complete domination of the conservatives after the State election. This has not been the case in NSW.
If the hard times are doled out by the conservatives on an on-going basis is it likely their poll numbers will go further south.
More importantly, it gives the electorate, keen to put the keys of power so strongly kin the hands of the conservatives not so long ago, something to think about come the Federal election coming next year.
I am fully aware that the electorate is intelligent enough to distinguish between State and Federal issues, but, if we heard it once from the conservatives we must have heard it a hundred times about the “basball bats” waiting for State Labor due to the actions of Federal Labor.
It is legitimate to suggest the mugging might just go the other way.
Labor has always had an uphill battle Federally in Queensland but if the Newman poison is just enough to prevent any loss of seats in the SE corner for the progressives, that will be welcome in itself – at this point in time.
Things may even get better than this in the Deep North as time goes on.
Friend of mine in Rockhampton tells me nobody is actually doing any cheering for the local conservatives. Not a good sign for them I would have thought.
Zoomster,
Any time after 24 September, but not the afternoon of Wednesday 3 October.
Are other Victorian PBers interested? I do hope so!
Mod Lib
Now you are accusing some here of blindly following Party lines?
This from one who believes in action on climate change, prefers an ETS than direct action, miners paying tax on superprofits, and the NBN to name a few.
Hypocrite!
Mod Lib,
[ I do envy you guys who don’t care what your party does and just support them blindly anyway ]
You don’t apparently, so who or what do you support?
Or do you just put up heaps of nonsense here just to see what sort of reaction you get?
Centre
Try selling the view that the PM didn’t lie to the electorate. For a start you are going up against the front of mind view that the PM did lie. It’s an upstream battle that’s pretty much impossible to win. On top of that, you’ve got the Greens Party continually calling the policy a tax as if to hammer the point home. It sucks but it’s how it’s viewed
zoomster
If you do come to Melbourne, let us know what date, and I will see if I am available to catch up. At this stage, there are plans to head up the coast with my sister during the school holidays, but there is a chance I may still be in Melbourne when you come down.
p
Bluey can look after himself. He has been very entertained by the super trawler policy process. He reckons humans are clueless.
#1726 obviously your = you’re
in if your really game
If Mr Abbott did not hit anyone this weekend, then he has had a good weekend.
[Bugger intimidating peeps, women, blokes, or children, use that anger positively to move furniture.
What’s that song again?]
“You might be a nafty dresser, but stay away from my drawers”?
B
I sometimes feel that Bluey is smarter than all of us. Especially the rabid runt supporting trolls
fiona,
[ Scorpio,
That would be “lame, gay, churchy loser”: ]
That’s the one. Don’t you just love them. Unlike their dad, they say it like it is. They know him better than anyone in the media, even Sheridan.
Sheridan! Blaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa…………………. Can’t believe that Murdoch could employ somebody that…………………………….
Q&A, Monday night, can’t wait. Sheridan…………………………………..
Hmm
I hope I haven’t started an attack of italicitis.
So, Mr O’Farrell reckons we should have a look at increasing the GST.
These Coalition types really are the big taxing, closet socialists.
SO will GhostWhoVotes be leaking Nielson around 10pm tonight? Or does James J do that as well as Newspoll?
Still, Mr O’Farrell is probably right. Sooner or alter we are going to have to increase the GST.
Mod Lib @ 1728
No, they’re not broken promises and backflips at all.
Gillard has delivered on her promise to put a price on carbon.
Yes or No?
Gillard has introduced a MRRT.
Yes or No?
Gillard is acting on asylum seekers.
Yes or No?
The only answer that can be given is “yes” on the above accounts.
If you answered “no” you are an idiotic moron!
lol Mod lib.
[Boerwar
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink
Still, Mr O’Farrell is probably right. Sooner or alter we are going to have to increase the GST.]
I reckon COAG would get a lot of kudos increasing the GST to pay for the NDIS.
Our pollies are wimps these days….they don’t make em like Howard any more.
BW,
[These Coalition types really are the big taxing, closet socialists.]
There aint nothing socialist about a regressive tax last time I looked.