The electorate of Parramatta has existed without interruption since federation, shrinking over time from Sydney’s broad north-western outskirts into the immediate area of the town itself. It presently extends from the Parramatta town centre southwards to Granville, westwards to Wentworthville, northwards to Carlingford and eastwards to Rydalmere. This area is distinguished by a high level of ethnic diversity, being home to particularly large Chinese, Indian and Lebanese communities.
Parramatta was once a conservative stronghold, having only been won for Labor prior to 1977 with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929. Notable members included Joseph Cook, who held the seat for its first 20 years and served as Liberal prime minister from June 1913 to September 1914; Sir Garfield Barwick, member from 1958 to 1964, who served as External Affairs Minister and Attorney-General in the Menzies government before going on to an immensely controversial tenure as Chief Justice of the High Court; and Philip Ruddock, who began his parliamentary career after winning the seat at a by-election in September 1973, adding 7.0% to what had been an extremely narrow margin in 1972.
The watershed in the seat’s history came with a redistribution in 1977 that effectively changed the existing seat’s name to Dundas, of which Philip Ruddock became the inaugural member, while creating a new seat of Parramatta that extended deep into Sydney’s Labor-voting west. The newly safe Labor seat was won by John Brown, the Hawke government Tourism Minister remembered for his dislike of koalas and inappropriate use of his ministerial desk. Brown resigned as minister in 1987 after admitting (which he would later retract) that he had misled parliament, and he was succeeded in Parramatta by Paul Elliott in 1990.
Redistributions in 1984 and 1993 returned the seat to the marginal column by pulling it back to the east, reducing the margin to 1.0% ahead of the 1993 election. Elliott was able to increase his margin on that occasion, but he was unseated by a 7.1% swing in 1996. Incoming Liberal member Ross Cameron held out against a relatively mild swing of 1.1% in 1998, and further survived a highly unfavourable redistribution that pushed the electorate southwards in 2001 by picking up a swing of 3.6%. Shortly before the 2004 election he felt compelled to tell Fairfax’s Good Weekend magazine that he had committed numerous infidelities throughout his married life, and he emerged from the election as one of only three Coalition members to have lost their seat.
Labor’s new member was Julie Owens, classically trained pianist, former chief executive of the Association of Independent Record Labels and member of the Left faction. Owens faced an early challenge when another substantial distribution ahead of the 2007 election pushed the seat back to the north, but she easily accounted for the notional Liberal margin of 0.8% with a 7.7% swing consistent with the western Sydney trend. The redistribution pendulum swung heavily the other way when the seat absorbed the northern half of its abolished southern neighbour Reid ahead of the 2010 election, boosting the margin to 9.5%. There were suggestions this might result in Owens contesting Greenway, which took over the western end of the old Parramatta around Pendle Hill and Kings Langley, with Parramatta going to Owens’ factional mentor, Reid MP Laurie Ferguson. However, Ferguson was instead accommodated in Werriwa and Owens stayed put, surviving a 5.5% swing that reduced her margin to 4.4%.
The Liberals have preselected Martin Zaiter, a 29-year-old partner in a local accountancy firm, who was chosen ahead of a field that included the unsuccessful candidate from 2010, engineer Charles Camenzuli. There has been ongoing speculation over the years that Ross Cameron might seek a return to politics, but invariably in relation to other seats.
That was two weeks ago – a week is a long time in politics. 😛
[Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink
Centre:
Gillard has approval of 31% and Net approval of -26 (after a recent improvement!!!)
Newman has approval of 42% and Net approval of -6]
lol 🙂
This one is for the #Fanbois
@JuliaGillard Dear PM, it’s good to see you smile and we believe in you
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib,
Your like an investor – want to see the high numbers, and ignore the low numbers.]
Not at all….I am just amazed that Newman can maintain a greater than 10% lead after everything that has happened over the last few weeks.
If I am the only one who is amazed by that result, fair enough, but I would have expected a much closer poll than that.
It is hilarious that some are talking about Newman getting dumped when he holds a 10% lead while it is ridiculous to dump Gillard when she has had a 10% deficit for 18 months. Each to their own I guess….
Mod Lib
Why are you comparing Newman with Gillard?
Gillard will be competing against, let’s just say for now, Abbott at the election.
Are you seriously that stupid in your inability to make worthwhile comparisons?
Once again Mod Lib.
[Why are you comparing Newman with Gillard?]
Centre, because Mod is still the #ELDicko
What was Newmans net sat two months ago? +23 wasn’t it? What happened 😆
[Centre, because Mod is still the #ELDicko]
But your favourite one still, no?
Newman’s about to become the victim of the same thing that has plagued Gillard’s leadership. I think that’s a fair comment.
[I am just amazed]
I would write off your amazement to your stupidity.
[ruawake
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:04 pm | Permalink
What was Newmans net sat two months ago? +23 wasn’t it? What happened ]
He had to fix the mess the ALP left him….
Okay so CanDo still leads by 10%, These things tend to be a slow burn, Jeff poll number didn’t fall overnight nor did Howard after 1996.
The real test is after the cuts come into effect.
[ruawake
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:04 pm | Permalink
What was Newmans net sat two months ago? +23 wasn’t it? What happened ]
What was Labor net sat two years ago? + 4-6 wasn’t it? what happend? Gillard, thats what.
[Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 6:58 pm | Permalink
Centre:
Gillard has approval of 31% and Net approval of -26 (after a recent improvement!!!)
Newman has approval of 42% and Net approval of -6]
For completeness I should add:
ALP LOTO has approval of 23% and Net approval of -6% too
Mod Lib,
There was no mess that ALP left, the audit from Costello is overrated to put it bluntly to keep the blame on ALP.
Cando has space for another 15,000 sackings according to this poll.
Mod Lib
I gave you and your stablemate Evan Labor Man some advice earlier, maybe you should heed it 🙂
zoidlord:
I am very happy for you to hold that view, lets not argue the point.
The NSW ALP are faultless….fine. Keep thinking that and we can have a Lib realm
The Qld ALP are faultless….fine. Perhaps next election they might need 2 Taragos for caucus meetings
….and of course Gillard is a political genius…lets see how that turns out too! 🙂
He he he This is just reachTel, wait for Newpoll and Essential and Nielsen and Morgan to come out. Poor Mod Lib and Rummie will be General Wencking. 😛
Mod lib, like everyone else and everything else, you twist and apply your own logic to other posts.
I didn’t say they didn’t exist, i said it is overstated.
Poliquant – are you allocating preferences solely on last election to reach a 50:50 rough split? I’d be curious to know how the cuts will impact on Katter supporters’ preferences. And suspect that as Labor’s odium slowly lifts fewer Greens would exhaust.
Mod Lib if Newman is cleaning up the mess why is his budget deficit going to be twice that of the ALP?
[mexicanbeemer
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:06 pm | Permalink
Okay so CanDo still leads by 10%, These things tend to be a slow burn, Jeff poll number didn’t fall overnight nor did Howard after 1996.
The real test is after the cuts come into effect.]
You do realise that Howard kept winning and stayed in government for more than a decade and Kennett for 7 years …yeah?
Spur212
No it’s not. Julia Gillard will be winning a lot of admiration and praise for her strength and determination from the electorate.
It’s only Liberal’s like yourself that are desperately clinging to the present polling and hoping they won’t change.
You can’t call full time – the game has a full year to run 🙂
And at what point does the Government actually work towards creating the conditions for the private sector to grow.
Cutting budgets without a clear plan for growth will not work.
Lets remember the saying – you need to spend money to make money
[rummel
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:08 pm | Permalink
Cando has space for another 15,000 sackings according to this poll.]
Glad you’re laughing at another 15G out of work.
Lucky you’re in NSW, he he
Oh, wait, BOF’s coming.
ModLib – True and that is why CanDo and the LNP will be at least a two term Government.
I hear when O’Farrell has finished with teachers he is coming after the lazy public servants in the fire brigades.
[ruawake
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink
He he he This is just reachTel, wait for Newpoll and Essential and Nielsen and Morgan to come out. Poor Mod Lib and Rummie will be General Wencking]
I am salivating to see what happens with the next polls (three tomorrow for starters):
Gillard out of the media spotlight: helps Gillard
Abbott getting a pounding: helps Gillard
Gillard pounding supertrawler: helps Gillard (in short term)
Protesters in Sydney with kids holding banners about beheadings: bad for Gillard
Nauru back in the spotlight: bad for Gillard
Rudd popping his head up again: probably bad for Gillard
Who knows what is going to happen????
Pollbludging rules eh?
On this result CanDo loses Ashgrove, I am sure the LNP will get a second term, Newman will not unless he bones Flegg and takes his seat.
I image CanDo will be moved to a safer seat. Wonder if a redistribution is on the cards.
By what logic?
[On this result CanDo loses Ashgrove, I am sure the LNP will get a second term, Newman will not unless he bones Flegg and takes his seat.]
He could get another seat, or they could give him the flick, let him take the flack for the hard decisions and let Springborg take over and have an easy rule…
Mod Lib and Spur212
Do you both believe Abbott that he did not punch a wall on either side of a women’s head or that he cannot recall punching a wall on either side of a women’s head?
If not, do you condone his behaviour and do you believe that his character and temperament are suitable to be a PM?
[Centre
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:13 pm | Permalink
Spur212
No it’s not. Julia Gillard will be winning a lot of admiration and praise for her strength and determination from the electorate.]
Jeebus spur
get the fk over it, mate.
You’ve had your little whiney explanation as to why you had to hand-on-you-heart change sides from Gillard to Rudd.
Oh oh, JG’s coming good and you can’t cope with your own stupidity.
Tell you what, why don’t you read “Obama’s Way” and see what an absolute tool Rudd was over Libya. And how JG was right (and so was BW, actually) and your hero Possum Comitatus wasn’t.
Rudd may have gotten the kudos, but he was absolutely wRONg (as was H Clinton).
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obama
see especially pages 7-9
And, ask yourself, why Australia’s press doesn’t report the duplicity of Rudd. Actually Megalogenis went a little bit that way this morning. Brave chap.
Nichols would be fine if Newman gets the chop. Afterall it’s the party that is important not who leads them.
Which is exactly what is happening – Clive Palmer will back the Borg in, he didn’t give him the use of his private jet for nothing.
lol just laughing at some response from defending newman comparing to fed labor been in gov since 2007.
ruawake:
Its my tried and tested “vibe” meter.
I think stories of islamic protesters, particularly when there are images of children being given placards which say someone needs beheading doesn’t go down well with the populace.
The party which has cultivated the vibe of losing control of the borders thereby letting islamic people into the country is the ALP.
Ergo Islamic protests or violence leads to drop in ALP vote.
Not to the National Party.
zoomster
Shopping Centre in Northern Melbourne
rua
ML is giving you a lesson in how xenophobic sectarian hate politics really works.
Have you noticed that the PM has been attacked for being too hard on asylum seekers, as usual your political antennae are bent.
Most likely the polls will show Abbott still in a commanding position.
[Centre
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 7:22 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib and Spur212
Do you both believe Abbott that he did not punch a wall on either side of a women’s head or that he cannot recall punching a wall on either side of a women’s head?
If not, do you condone his behaviour and do you believe that his character and temperament are suitable to be a PM?]
Centre:
I said about 2 years ago that I didn’t think Abbott was suitable to be PM.
Do try to keep up.
Whether or not he punched the wall thirty years ago is of absolutely no relevance. If it was, why did you guys try to foist on the unsuspecting populace a man who had much more recently broken the arm of a taxi driver?
…not to mention trying to break the hand of Howard in that radio station during the election.
Do you concede that Latham was an ALP mistake?
Hi Graeme,
I am using the preference flow of the last election as I have estimated, but there is no objective to make it a 50-50 split.
You may be right about changing preference flows, but we have no information to back this up. Polling about voters second preferences can be quite misleading as many voters ultimately follow the HTV.
Therefore I follow the convention of using the last election preference flows to estimate TPP.
ML
Gillard wanted to send asylum seekers to Malaysia and Abbott, Hockey, Morrison all cried foul. Actually Hockey cried, and said it was oh so cruel! I remember you saying it was oh so cruel and mean
TT
There is no ‘still’.
Mr Abbott is behind Ms Gillard on PPM and net satisfaction ratings.
ru
Precisely my point