The electorate of Parramatta has existed without interruption since federation, shrinking over time from Sydney’s broad north-western outskirts into the immediate area of the town itself. It presently extends from the Parramatta town centre southwards to Granville, westwards to Wentworthville, northwards to Carlingford and eastwards to Rydalmere. This area is distinguished by a high level of ethnic diversity, being home to particularly large Chinese, Indian and Lebanese communities.
Parramatta was once a conservative stronghold, having only been won for Labor prior to 1977 with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929. Notable members included Joseph Cook, who held the seat for its first 20 years and served as Liberal prime minister from June 1913 to September 1914; Sir Garfield Barwick, member from 1958 to 1964, who served as External Affairs Minister and Attorney-General in the Menzies government before going on to an immensely controversial tenure as Chief Justice of the High Court; and Philip Ruddock, who began his parliamentary career after winning the seat at a by-election in September 1973, adding 7.0% to what had been an extremely narrow margin in 1972.
The watershed in the seat’s history came with a redistribution in 1977 that effectively changed the existing seat’s name to Dundas, of which Philip Ruddock became the inaugural member, while creating a new seat of Parramatta that extended deep into Sydney’s Labor-voting west. The newly safe Labor seat was won by John Brown, the Hawke government Tourism Minister remembered for his dislike of koalas and inappropriate use of his ministerial desk. Brown resigned as minister in 1987 after admitting (which he would later retract) that he had misled parliament, and he was succeeded in Parramatta by Paul Elliott in 1990.
Redistributions in 1984 and 1993 returned the seat to the marginal column by pulling it back to the east, reducing the margin to 1.0% ahead of the 1993 election. Elliott was able to increase his margin on that occasion, but he was unseated by a 7.1% swing in 1996. Incoming Liberal member Ross Cameron held out against a relatively mild swing of 1.1% in 1998, and further survived a highly unfavourable redistribution that pushed the electorate southwards in 2001 by picking up a swing of 3.6%. Shortly before the 2004 election he felt compelled to tell Fairfax’s Good Weekend magazine that he had committed numerous infidelities throughout his married life, and he emerged from the election as one of only three Coalition members to have lost their seat.
Labor’s new member was Julie Owens, classically trained pianist, former chief executive of the Association of Independent Record Labels and member of the Left faction. Owens faced an early challenge when another substantial distribution ahead of the 2007 election pushed the seat back to the north, but she easily accounted for the notional Liberal margin of 0.8% with a 7.7% swing consistent with the western Sydney trend. The redistribution pendulum swung heavily the other way when the seat absorbed the northern half of its abolished southern neighbour Reid ahead of the 2010 election, boosting the margin to 9.5%. There were suggestions this might result in Owens contesting Greenway, which took over the western end of the old Parramatta around Pendle Hill and Kings Langley, with Parramatta going to Owens’ factional mentor, Reid MP Laurie Ferguson. However, Ferguson was instead accommodated in Werriwa and Owens stayed put, surviving a 5.5% swing that reduced her margin to 4.4%.
The Liberals have preselected Martin Zaiter, a 29-year-old partner in a local accountancy firm, who was chosen ahead of a field that included the unsuccessful candidate from 2010, engineer Charles Camenzuli. There has been ongoing speculation over the years that Ross Cameron might seek a return to politics, but invariably in relation to other seats.
Only the majors. LNP 44.7, ALP 34.7
Sample Size 1140
Thanks Poliquant
GG @ 1526
[Barnaby enters the fray with mouth agape. “It’s the strut I tells you is why he’s misunderstood”.]
You know you’re in deep trouble when Barnaby Joyce starts giving you political advice about your demeanour. To be lectured by the dipso Joyce would be galling for Abbott to say the least, but in any event there is little the ’embattled’ LOTO can do about his simian gait.
‘Embattled’ …. it does look good when written down, doesn’t it?
There was a big protest against the LNP and Newman at his community cabinet today in Cairns.
Here’s some footage
http://www.twitvid.com/B5Y9J
http://www.twitvid.com/B50KI
I think the poll might have been reported with this footage attached to it but I’m not certain
Victoria
Yes, I believe it will. I have heard myself and also had reports from ex and current MPs, many Qlders already have a case of ‘buyer’s remorse’. Some of the thing upsetting folk are the cuts to the NGOs and services as well as the job cuts. When they hear Vision Aust, St Vinnies and the volunteer firies are being effected it is really hitting home even more than the non support of the NDIS which many don’t understand.
There has been an increase in new members of the ALP this year too which may mean that the anti Newman feeling is turning in the new YRAW type cause which hopefully will be a positive for the Federal Election next year.
The Brisbane times’
take on Julia’s speech and a number of comments follow.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/even-clive-palmer-is-having-doubts-gillard-blasts-newman-government-20120916-26007.html
LNP vote and Labor primary vote both increased from August LNP around 45% and Labor around 35% thereabouts.
I take heart that despite the Tough love Newman remains more popular than both Gillard and Abbott.
Here is the full release.
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/lnp-support-unchanged-after-difficult-month
Seat Projection shortly at
http://poliquant.com/queensland-seat-projection-16-september-reachtel-poll/
MsAdventure
Appreciate the feedback
Typical open Govt from Noddy Newman – lock the doors. 🙁
Someone’s gone to a lot of trouble over that mock Australian front page. Clever.
Thanks Poliquant,
makes my effort look poor.
[many Qlders already have a case of ‘buyer’s remorse’]
Not all of them will be prepared to admit that they have been conned even when asked in a poll where they remain anonymous – they will be embarrassed and humiliated. As the number of remorseful buyers increases in the polls more will be prepared to out themselves as well. This will have a snowball effect (or whatever the equivalent is for a state that doesn’t experience snow) eventually making Newman’s leadership untenable. .
davidwh
Nice spin.
What is the change since the election?
How much influence did Cutler have over the selection of the Rhodes Scholar?
There would certainly have been a personal acquaintance between Abbott and Cutler – after all this was the time when the Governor’s roller was parked on the hill at University Oval at all “the students” home games.
Hmm. The biggest movement appears to be from the Greens/Other to Labor.
Ctar?????????????????
What the hell are you saying. Fish???
Hope your not driving
Liberal member Declan Stephenson intimidates female Greens voter.
Watch the video, she ends up in tears, disgusting treatment of a young women.
http://youtu.be/X0SU8Frk03E
Tom why would the QLD LNP dump Newman where Labor holds onto a PM in a much worse position? This period may be as bad as it gets for Newman if the measures, those being ignored, aimed at stimulating sectors previously struggling have a positive effect.
@davidwh/1619
david, david, it is not a “period” that newman is having, it is as long as he uses slash and burn tactics – he will get negative results.
Now, I have to get hold of PTMD
Are you about Puff??
Rua not spin just the reality. Sure the LNP has burned a lot of political capital taking some tough policy measures but they had a lot of capital to burn. We have to wait and see the outcome of those tough measures before making a long-term call and Newman’s position, despite the crash, remains stronger than the PM’s.
@davidwh/1622
You mean the easy choices of slash and burn – just like any LNP gov has done in the past.
Going off that poll, perceptions of Newman are hardening in the same way they have for Gillard and Abbott. People are moving from a soft, good, indifferent, poor opinion to a hard very poor opinion.
This will get worse as time goes on and as the divisions in the LNP become more evident, the government continues to make silly decisions and the community campaign gets louder
ReachTel Poll TPP I would put at:
LNP 55.3%
ALP 44.7%
David
Do you admit that Newman lied repeatedly throughout the campaign about his intentions to sack public servants? Now, if you can’t answer Yes to that simple question then there is no point in even discussing the issues with you. If you can answer Yes then we can continue.
Is that about 10% TPP swing?
davidwh
Julia Gillard is competing against Tony Abbott.
You are being absurd!
Labor will benefit from the actions of Newman in two ways; 1) they will prefer a different party in government federally and 2) they will fear that Abbott has the same agenda of cost cutting as Newman.
Dee
oK you got me. re front page.
I thought it was hilarious but for consistency’s sake had to give it the thumbs down. But I suppose it could be a parody of a famous painting or something.
He only got elected in March and now has a negative performance rating, Labor has picked up 4 points on primary vote in a month, 8 since the election. How many bad things has Campbell got room for? His honeymoon is over and he has no way back.
[Tom why would the QLD LNP dump Newman where Labor holds onto a PM in a much worse position?]
Always with the distractions David. You and ML are joined at the hip in that regard.
actions speak louder than words david.
yes I am here. wozup?
7.5% swing GG
SBS reports on Rajoy’s EMBATTLED Spanish government.
victoria
and where were you shopping when you saw your Campbell Newman lookalike? (I have a reason for asking…)
Not to shocked by the Cando poll. Its just rusted on Labor voters going back to to the fold after being so upset by the blugh government they voted Lib.
Julia Gillard today is in a stronger polling position than Keating 93, Howard 01 and Howard 04, who went on to win their respective elections.
Or, Abbott is in a worse polling position than Hewson 93, Beazley 01 and Latham 04, who went on to lose their respective elections.
Don’t talk about polls, your case crumbles to pieces.
Things that batter
Ah Dolly Downer. Not for a moment am I suggesting that Abbott’s wall punching is up there with Dolly’s comment. But…the impact of this comment in Sept 1994, as well as other sundry stuff-ups (I think the fishnets came much later), on his Newspoll approval ratings were spectacular:
[Poll – Approve Disapprove Net balance
22-24 July 1994 – 51 22 29
5-7 August 1994 – 34 41 -7
19-21 August 1994 – 37 40 -3
2-4 September 1994 – 24 55 -31
16-18 September 1994 – 23 58 -35
23-25 September 1994 – 24 59 -35
7-9 October 1994 – 22 63 -41
21-23 October 1994 -22 61 -39]
Time will tell what impact Abbott’s wall punching will have
PTMD
Thank you for your qualified support of me the other night.
You’re absolutely right, I’m full of rage against men who are determined to paint all women with the same brush; and they hate it being done to them just as much as women do, although seemingly reluctant to admit it.
And when I attack, I attack the same way – inferring that they’re all the same.
And you’re dad burn right they don’t like it.
But my most deep-seated rage is about another matter, that is also male driven too – especially in my family.
I can’t talk about it at the moment, but believe me I will.
And it’s that riven fury that keeps coming to the fore, much as I try to abate it.
It probably started with the stinkin jesuits, actually.
[Poliquant
Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 at 6:34 pm | Permalink
ReachTel Poll TPP I would put at:
LNP 55.3%
ALP 44.7%]
Yikes, that is absolutely amazing.
After the cuts, the media, the protests…..Newman still holds more than a double digit lead.
WOW
Again, just wait a couple of months. Remember, the reason Newman was drafted to the leadership in 2011 was because the LNP pretty much had no one else. Part of his appeal was that he was likable and connected with people. That is no longer the case.
Just while we are on Sydney Uni (I did a BA (Hons) ’78-’81) I have been racking my brains to see what I could remember – the Political Economy debate was real, as was the split in the Philosophy Department between the Marxists and the trads.
One distinct memory in 1980 in the lead up to the election was a young Bob Hawke speaking on the front lawn, pretty sure this was before he entered Parliament. A truly brilliant speech from a charismatic orator – drew the biggest crowd of any speaker in my time there.
On 1639
[Not…up there with Dolly’s comment.]
By which I mean, in terms of public impact
Actually punching walls in intimidation would be worse than a louche joke
Laocoon
Abbott is the most unpopular opposition leader to contest an election (before threatening a women with punches) as it is of all time.
Abbott won’t lead them to the election.
Mod Lib
I believe that could be the largest swing against a leader in such a short amount of time since winning an election.
Yep, WOW!
Mod Lib,
Your like an investor – want to see the high numbers, and ignore the low numbers.
Centre:
Gillard has approval of 31% and Net approval of -26 (after a recent improvement!!!)
Newman has approval of 42% and Net approval of -6
HAHAHAHA Surely that isn’t real but if it were I would have to buy it.
Mod Lib, again, state leader vs PM.
different scale.