Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,836 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 87 of 97
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  1. Meanwhile, a Sin Tax bill is being debated in the Philippines. With a reputed 400,000 guest relations officers you might think it could be a good revenue source, but apparently the peccant targets are ciggies and grog.

  3. [Oakeshott Country

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    Yes MM that was about the time Skull May would occassionally appear on campus in SA uniform trying to pick fights with Jews and Reds
    http://slackbastard.anarchobase.com/?p=8078
    I am told he is spending his twilight years as one of St George Illawarra’s most voriferous fans.]

    Check your email please OC

  10. OC:

    [Yes MM that was about the time Skull May would occassionally appear on campus in SA uniform trying to pick fights with Jews and Reds]

    I last recall seeing him at a demo outside the Hilton Hotel (Pitt St) in about 1979. It wasn’t that he was all that frightening, though he was a fairly physically imposing chap, but that it was assumed that he would try to provoke disturbances in order to get people arrested and then beaten up by friends he was said to have within the police and criminal fraternity. I should say here that apart from pure gossip, I never became aware of any reliable evidence that such claims (about the linkage with the police and criminals) had any basis in reality though of course I didn’t know that it was untrue either.

  14. [Oakeshott Country

    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

    Checking my diary as we speak Mari -many thanks]

    Fingers crossed would be 100% plus a couple of stray PBers coming hopefully

  18. I don’t ever recall a suggestion that Abbott assaulted Edwards. I do recall there being a suggestion that as he left the chamber he moved towards the opposition benches where Edwards was sitting in what was described as a threatening manner.

    The latter isn’t a good look, the former, as davidwh noted, would surely have seen him resign in disgrace.

  19. Tones thinks the ‘ChairThing’ bit was just a ‘silly student politics thing’ done a long time ago.

    Of course now he is admitting it was disruptive, nonproductive and only served to divide.

    So absolutely nothing has changed in the way that he deals with people who oppose him.

    A life spent learning nothing.

  20. “@Simon_Cullen: Pres of Katter’s Australian Party, Max Menzel, plans to meet with Clive Palmer to discuss common interests and the future of Aus”

  22. Burgey:

    Abbott didn’t assault Edwards – I think that’s just colourful language used by that particular blog.

    But it’s unclear what exactly did happen, which is what I’ve been trying to find out. Unsuccesfully I might add, given the incident happened 12 years ago.

  25. Fran I posted this to you at comment # 4299

    I now repost:

    [kezza2
    Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 3:06 pm | Permalink
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    Fran

    . . . I find the use of the word c**t as a term of abuse particularly offensive. It’s extraordinary that anyone appealing against misgyny would use that term in that way. It’s a borrowing from misogyny central.

    It’s called taking the foul and making the term obsolete, as in taking over a derogatory term such as “Wogs” and making it lose its racist power.

    I’m surprised you haven’t heard of it before.

    When was the word “c” first considered offensive? When a female’s sexual organs were first described in an offensive way. When a male decided that sexual power was greater than political power.

    So, what’s wrong with the term? Hey? Absolutely nothing, unless you subscribe to sexual power being greater than political power.

    And the more women use it, the less power it has as a belittlement tool.

    But it’s women like you who detest such “profanity”, and who continue to be offended by it, that it continues to have power.

    We don’t need to just reclaim the night . . .

    [I assume I’m in moderation because I used one asterisk instead of two.]

  27. [JacktheInsider ‏@JacktheInsider
    @markjs1 @lynlinking Not Edwards but Sid Sidebottom that TA fronted back in 2000. Confirmed by Sidebottom’s office in May this year.
    3:25 PM – 14 Sep 12]
    Sid was another MP on the floor at the same time as Edwards I believe.

  29. Mick

    Such a move could destroy the Qld Nationals part of the LNP.

    Guytur, that is something that can only be brought about by their own hands

  30. This is the only thing Hansard says about Abbott being thrown out of the House (that I can find):

    [Mr ST CLAIR (3:20 PM) —Mr Speaker, I wish to make a personal explanation.

    Mr SPEAKER —Does the honourable member claim to have been misrepresented?

    Mr ST CLAIR —I do, Mr Speaker. Last night in this House the member for Batman made, during his speech, the following accusations:

    … the member for New England—who I might say this evening used, in a shameless manner, the public purse in the House of Representatives to actually publicly advertise the sale of his prime mover. Mr Deputy Speaker, he clearly advertised the fact that he has been unable to sell his prime mover, using the House of Representatives and the public purse to make it very clear to the Australian public that he has a prime mover for sale.

    This is my copy of the Hansard of my speech last night, where I said:

    I have a great personal interest in the trucking industry, as many in this House know. I have spent many years myself driving trucks and still cannot bring myself to sell my prime mover …

    I would like to table those documents, if the House agrees.

    Mr SPEAKER —I believe the member for New England has made his point. I think that any action to table Hansard would seem a little inconsistent with the normal course of events in the House—the Minister for Employment Services will excuse himself from the House.

    Mr Abbott —I was just going to join my friend.

    Mr SPEAKER —Minister!

    The member for Warringah then withdrew from the chamber.

    Mr Albanese interjecting—

    Mr SPEAKER —I beg your pardon, the member for Grayndler! The member for Grayndler will apologise.

    Mr Albanese —I apologise, Mr Speaker.

    Mr Latham —On a point of order, Mr Speaker. Just for clarification, have you suspended the minister under a standing order in your ruling?

    Mr SPEAKER —I have indeed.

    Mr Latham —Thank you. ]
    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F2000-06-21%2F0077%22

  31. I have been looking around for some foam-flecked outrage from Mr Sheridan’s at chaff bags, nooses, witches and the like.

    Nothing.

  32. Confessions:

    [Abbott didn’t assault Edwards – I think that’s just colourful language used by that particular blog.]

    Well they are doing a kind of equivocation. Most people think assaulting people means striking them without adequate cause. Technically, that’s battery. Assault requires merely that one person put another in fear of their safety by a witting act.

    Thus, if Abbott really dealt with Ramjan as claimed, then that would be an assault. Similarly, if a reasonable person in Edward’s position had supposed that Abbott was about to strike him or injure him in some way, then that would be assault. The matter is somewhat confused by the use of “assault” in the term “s@xual assault” which almost always does require a physical act.

    Charges tend not to be laid for assault when battery is absent (because sometimes it’s hard to determine what the parties really had in mind at the time) but that doesn’t mean that assault without battery isn’t criminal — just a lot harder to prove at the required standard.

  33. Flicking through the 2000 Hansards reminds me that it was back in the days when the Member for Dickson wasn’t a bone-idle fool.

  34. More of that infamous Abbott charm:

    [Mr ABBOTT —I am confident that the Job Network member in this case has acted quite properly, as has Centrelink. I agreed with the member for Dickson to keep the job seeker’s name and address confidential, and I have done so.

    Mr Beazley —Sit him down.

    Mr SPEAKER —Leader of the Opposition!

    Mr ABBOTT —I have done exactly what I promised. You are a sanctimonious windbag.

    Mr SPEAKER —The minister will resume his seat.

    Mr ABBOTT —You are—

    Mr SPEAKER —Minister! ]
    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F2000-06-21%2F0073%22

  36. If Palmer did move to Katter’s corner, surely the party would need to be renamed.

    Katter and Clive’s Australia Party has a nice ring to it.

  37. I had an interesting telephone conversation approx 1 hour ago. I had a call from a lady representing the Rural Fire Brigade of Queensland seeking a charity donation.

    I mentioned that she must be totally upset and confused re Can’t Do cutting back the Rural FB. She commenced a full blown tirade on Newman. And with the bloke she was chatting with (ME) agreeing every step of the way. Some five minutes later it was unanimous that he was a complete arseole.

    She even said that he will be voted out next election.

    My point is… if a charity callperson who is trying to attract donations for a worthy cause is now openly spruiking against the elected state Government I think that the cancer of Newman is now unrepairable.

    I hope this translates to distrust for Fed Fibs as I believe it will / has.

    It is indeed interesting times here in Queensland.
    .

  42. d Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics

    RT @SydWalker: Qld Govt to FORCE PV owners to sell ALL their electricity to retailers? http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/qld-govt-force-pv-ow

    We are having. 2000. KW. INSTALLED. NEXT WEEK
    THANK GOD for our upper house
    From what. We underdtand talking to?the company

    We use our own power all day, what the system cannot
    Handle the smart metre kicks in and we use hydro state power then

  43. Kezza2:

    [I find the use of the word c**t as a term of abuse particularly offensive. It’s extraordinary that anyone appealing against misgyny would use that term in that way. It’s a borrowing from misogyny central.

    It’s called taking the foul and making the term obsolete, as in taking over a derogatory term such as “W&gs” and making it lose its racist power.

    ]

    I reject this entirely. Speaking as someone who spent a long time on the wrong end of this term as well I see nothing liberating in the free use of the term. That term and a series of other hateful epithets were expressly used to marginalise ostensible non-Anglos, and along with anti-Catholic abuse I copped a more or less unbroken stream of it between 1964 and 1974 from apparent anglo-celts (and sometimes others too). The term “w&g” didn’t start being used affectionately in public space until after other ethnicities displaced Italians and Greeks from the top of the Anglos hate list.

    The word c**t — a term typically aimed at men trades on a combination of ancient priggish religious objection both at promiscuity and in even more ancient terms, at the “evil” brought into the world by “Eve” at the Garden of Eden (the term refers to “knowledge”) and in contemporary terms, seeks to derogate a male by comparing him to something that is both female and for many men, a source of serious angst. Thus to describe one male as another’s “b|tch” or a “pussy” are in the same ballpark. For the users of the term the authentic human is male through and through rather than a receptacle of the least appealing desires of others and a subaltern.

    One cannot imagine this term ever losing its force until women really are seen uiversally as wholly human and female genitalia not problematised by large swathes of the human population — especially the males.

    Of course, if and when this day ever comes, calling someone a c**t would be as meaningful as calling someone a deltoid or patella or or hair.

  44. Just went to the local fish shop. No carp – so nothing there for the Greens. There was a large variety of small fish @ around $3-4 a kilogram. Most expensive was farmed salmon @ around $12 a kilogram.

  45. jeffemu:

    There’s still just under 3 years until the next Qld election. I think it’s a bit too soon to be writing off NEwman’s chances!

  47. penis = d*ck, pole, spear, shaft, etc
    vagina = c**t, hole, slit, etc

    so, why does c**t cause so much angst??

    I reckon it’s the last taboo.

    f**k has lost all meaning.

    It must be the “u” that still curries flavour.

    What’s wrong with “u”?

  50. Yes Victoria it was.

    What was interesting was it was at the end of our initial conversation. Honestly I am not the wealthiest bloke in the street right now and i had finished telling her how I would have to pass on making a donation right now.

    We we just about to terminate the call when I mentioned Can’t Dos cut backs. Well it was like firing a starters gun, she was off.

    She spoke of friends being caught in other cutbacks. How they won’t be able to survive. It’s just cruel. He is a bastard etc.

    Here you have a person who I can only assume spends hours a day on the phone chatting to prospective donators. I can only guess I am not the only one she is telling this to.

    .

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