Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,836 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Hi Bludgers – just home from the motonous grocery shopping but heard a little of Marius Benson with Sheridan. Wowee! Sheridan sounded desperate to protect both his image and Abbott’s.

    Has the full i/v been linked here this morning plse?

  3. I wonder if a gutsy female journalist at one of Abbott’s doorstops would reply to an intimidating answer by asking “Are you going to punch me, Mr. Abbott?”.

  5. I wonder if Sheridan goes home at night, after an interview like this morning, satisfied with his contribution to society. Is he proud of his performance? I would be embarrassed if I was at all associated with him.

  7. CTar1
    [I liked the ‘agit-prop’ bit too. I’m surprised he didn’t get in the ‘yellow peril’ and ‘Domino Theory’.]
    He is a bit like those WWII Japanese soldiers that were found as late as 1997 still holding out in the jungles of the Philippines,Indonesia,PNG and Thailand.

  9. Has Sheridan begun working for Abbott? That surely must be the plan. Maybe that was the topic of conversation at the Carlton pizza shop a few months ago? Sheridan has much to lose if Abbott loses the leadership. That is why he was frothing at the mouth.

  10. BH

    It was linked earlier by Leroy I believe. I will have a look at where it is.

    SK

    I could not remember the vet’s name. Had to find it via google

  12. Burgey:

    [The Left can do a lot better than have Catherine Deveney as a spokesperson, but putting the Police on her seems excessive in the extreme.]

    Absolutely. She makes it clear on her blog (to which William Bowe links above) that she speaks for nobody but herself, and doesn’t care at all about the opinions of even those who agree with her. I’m taking that to the bank.

    I find it hard to respect those who overuse profane imprecation and I find the use of the word c**t as a term of abuse particularly offensive. It’s extraordinary that anyone appealing against misgyny would use that term in that way. It’s a borrowing from misogyny central.

    For mine, she is just some loudmouthed pseudo-liberal wanting more than her allocated 15 minutes of fame. She has nothing beyond bloviation to offer about power relationships between the privileged and the marginalised and certainly no kind of account on how inequity might be diminished. Without this, she doesn’t pass muster as a lefty whatever else she says.

  19. poroti

    [He is a bit like those WWII Japanese soldiers]

    Yep. The BA ‘position’ that came to be as the outcome of the ‘Doc’ unhinging, Milner and Petrov still lives and is unmodified.

    Very 50’s.

  21. leone 4254
    Thanks for that link
    [There was a blue. Look, Joe was playing third grade. I was the second grade coach, but I was a kind of a semi-player coach. It was the late 1980s. Joe was uncoachable. He was always giving the coaches lip, a bit like he is still in the Parliament, and eventually I decided that I’d had enough, and the only time I’ve ever hit someone in training. Now, I have to say that Joe claims that I decked him.]
    So
    (1) Abbott was a coach
    (2) Abbott was coaching 2nds and Hockey playing 3rds
    (3) It was training
    (4) And Abbott still decked him?

  23. I did not link the website because there was an image of Abbott in nazi attire

    Victoria #4263 , assuming that is a doctored image?

    Members of the Australian Liberal Students Federation did parade around Sydney Uni in Nazi gear in (I think) 1980 , saw it with my own eyes, I recognised some of them but Abbott was not among them as far as I could tell and I am sure I would have recognised him if he were. I think not even he is that rotten and stupid.

  26. Re Abbotts alleged confrontation with Graham Edwards in the Chamber, would the re-emergence of that, be the scandal TLM that was alluding to earlier ?

  28. On that link the blogger has Abbott in Nazi attire, which I overlooked because I scrolled straight to the text. I do not endorse that image.

  29. victoria – I would not base anything on that blog. No links, no references. I went looking for the original accusation/articles, some of them are not online, if they ever were (its over 10 years ago). All I could find were articles much later than the event. There is some suggestion he might have been menacing someone else. Its unclear, would need to have real newspaper archives & hansard to hand.

  33. [ I would not base anything on that blog. No links, no references. ]

    That’s why it’s good to post the link as well – just reading the text quoted here made the claims sound more credible than they are once you open the blog.

    What about accessing Google newspapers? Do we know the month and year this is supposed to have happened?

  38. victoria and leroy – thanks for link – all I can say is phew! that was soooo bad and Sheridan’s reputation is kapput.

    I haven’t seen any mention anywhere (except on twitter) about the allegations made on newmatilda re the pub encounter with Abbott.

  40. I would have thought that if anyone was guilty of physical assaulting another MP in parliament then that would be the easiest of allegations. If the person being assaulted was a legless veteran then it would be even easier to prove. For starters it should be headlines in all the major media.

    So if a minister was ejected from the house for physical assault on a legless vet the proof should be really easy to find. I did plenty of searching and other than the article linked here I can’t find any other mention other than the Australian article saying it didn’t happen.

    Let’s face it if that was true Labor would use that to destroy Abbott. They would have used it to destroy Abbott 12 years ago.

  42. victoria,
    Some of his other blog-posts are a bit nutty, but some of them are interesting, lkie this one where he has picked up a link to an article about USA Veterans not qualifying for post-discharge treatment for war injuries because the have less tan Honorable Discharges.
    Some of these were for things like smoking pot and going AWOL (while having PTSD).
    h­ttp://theaussiedigger.com/site/2012/08/veteran-health-26/

    Like a lot of blogs, there both nuggets and cow-pats.

  43. Leroy: I remember hearing that story. I was working for the SA Parliament at the time and had regular contact with the local Federal MP’s office.

    I went to their office one day and they were talking about it. It was definitely Graham Edwards, and Abbott got chucked out of parliament as a result.

    Everyone was talking about how appalling Abbott was; what a nasty piece of work.

    If you had told me on that day that 12 years hence he would be Leader of the Opposition, I would have laughed in your face.

    Bloody hell. How the years fly by 🙁

  44. While listing the sins of the Abbott let us not forget this incident.

    [HEALTH Minister Tony Abbott was forced to apologise yesterday for making jokes about John Brogden just hours after the former NSW Opposition leader attempted suicide.

    The day after Mr Brogden was found unconscious in his electorate office with self-inflicted wounds, Mr Abbott publicly joked at two separate Liberal Party functions about the disgraced leader’s career-wrecking behaviour.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/abbott-forced-to-apologise-for-jokes-on-brogden/2005/09/04/1125772409387.html

  46. Ms Deveney and Mr Sheridan: peas in a pod. While they are around everyone else has to shut up and listen because they are right.

    I wish they would spend some quality time together in a phone booth.

  49. Fran

    [. . . I find the use of the word c**t as a term of abuse particularly offensive. It’s extraordinary that anyone appealing against misgyny would use that term in that way. It’s a borrowing from misogyny central.]

    It’s called taking the foul and making the term obsolete, as in taking over a derogatory term such as “Wogs” and making it lose its racist power.

    I’m surprised you haven’t heard of it before.

    When was the word “c*nt” first considered offensive? When a female’s sexual organs were first described in an offensive way. When a male decided that sexual power was greater than political power.

    So, what’s wrong with the term? Hey? Absolutely nothing, unless you subscribe to sexual power being greater than political power.

    And the more women use it, the less power it has as a belittlement tool.

    We don’t need to just reclaim the night . . .

    But it’s women like you who detest such “profanity” that continues to give it power.

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