Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,836 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

  1. The Left can do a lot better than have Catherine Deveney as a spokesperson, but putting the Police on her seems excessive in the extreme.

    Again, compare and contrast both Newman and Abbott’s responses to media pressure, spurious or otherwise, with that of the PM. It’s instructive. And I hope people begin to point it out. I’m reminded of that wonderful passage in parliament back in the 90s when Keating responded to a Hewson censure..

    “What we saw today was this leader of the opposition, he’s just like any other leader of the opposition. After 12 months of a dream run, and the first bit of pressure and what we saw here today was 15 minutes of a rattled man….”

    As for Sheridan, surely he should hand in his ticket. What an appalling performance by someone who’s meant to be a commentator. To play the sectarian card. What a woeful effort. How he would blaggard someone who sought to play the religion/ race/ gender card in a factual dispute such as this. He’s beneath contempt.

  2. [An investigation by The Sun-Herald into Mr Abbott’s controversial student days reveals that he spawned many more enemies than friends during those heady days]

    So why did the media initially play dumb when excerpts from the Marr essay were published? THEY LOOKED INTO THIS THEMSELVES!

  3. [but newman is in a nice seat – getting paid via taxes, while he’s cutting everyone’s jobs.]


    Your comment seems to suggest that Campbell Newman is somehow not an elected official.

    As an elected MP he is essentially on 3 year employment contract. The people of Qld can (if they wish) terminate his employment as premier in 3 years time, or the people of Ashgrove can terminate his employment as MP. He is not a permanent fixture.

  4. @BBS/4204

    3 years is too late, and by then he gotten paid hundreds of thousands with added bonuses etc.

    Stop hiding behind the easy words BBS.

  5. [3 years is too late, and by then he gotten paid hundreds of thousands with added bonuses etc.]

    Zoidlord, Like it or lump it but he was elected by the voters of Ashgrove at the election. Those that voted Labor can say “I told you so” and the others can vote against him in 2015.

    And since when did state premiers get ‘added bonuses’? What are you implying?

  6. I”ve now listened to the Greg Sheridan interview.

    I bet the ABC had to rinse the microphone afterwards. Simply astonishing unhingement.

  7. victoria

    [Will the Sheridan unhingement penetrate voterland, or is it just an amusement for the political class?]
    Its just for the political class.

  8. WOW, I just heard that Greg Sheridan Interview. If I didn’t know better, I would think that this Bloke had serious mental health issues. Just how is criticising :monkey: :anti-catholic sectarianism” that was a bizarre argument to make

    I can still recall a fully unhinged Sheridan ranting and foaming at George Galloway on Lateline 10 years ago, leaving Tony Jones utterly bemused and a tad bemused as to whether he should force the lunatic to shut up or let the entertainment roll on. It was hilarious and bizarre at the same time. Sheridan is a N.U.T.J.O.B (No.Useful.Thoughts.Just Overweening.Bullshit) par excellence…..

    Never Underestimate The Joy Of Bullshitting.

    Re: Talcum in lieu of Abbott, Abbott’s current Goon Squad kind of make sense with Abbott in charge – a talentless mob of bitter haters without any demonstrable capacity to lead or govern. Aside from Talcum, there isnt a serious policy wonk among them. I cant even imagine how someone with Talcum’s skills could manage them…and it seems to me that his current circumstances (where he has to work alongside such goons) must be a kind of extended Groundhog Day torture.

    Compare with the government’s front bench: irrespective of one’s political views, the difference in the talent is world’s above anything the Noalition could muster. It’s not even close.

  9. @BBS/4211

    I think you need to find the ‘Parliamentary Members’ Entitlements Handbook’.

    If you not understand even that, then I will no longer talk to you because your so defended on LNP or Newman.

  10. Wonder if George will put together a cartoon inspired by Alex and his fellow Droogs in A Clockwork Orange.

    Abbott’s an excellent Alex, and Hockey would be great co-star as Dim…..

  11. Son of foro
    [I take it from comments about how Tone’s bessie Shezza carried on this morning that he seems to think he’s living in Belfast?]
    Yep, a poor wee catlick living in Shankill Rd and getting regular visits from Ian Paisley.

  12. Danny Lewis – The media have a sort of version of the mythical goldfish memory. After a few years for most events, or just months for small things, its all forgotten. When the story pops up again, its suddenly new news. They all seem to do it.

    Remember, Bluegreen (poster on this forum) reminded Laurie Oakes of Abbott’s repeated attacks over 10 years ago on Beazley’s “negativity”, calling it “ruinism”, which Oakes himself wrote articles on back then. He’s somehow forgotten the past event and its obvious parallel to today, but mentioned it recently when prompted.

  13. [Remember, Bluegreen (poster on this forum) reminded Laurie Oakes of Abbott’s repeated attacks over 10 years ago on Beazley’s “negativity”, calling it “ruinism”, which Oakes himself wrote articles on back then. He’s somehow forgotten the past event and its obvious parallel to today, but mentioned it recently when prompted.]

    Tis true 🙂

  14. &w=815&h=605&ei=v61SUIWNIbGViAeyiYHADA&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=470&sig=113996147449549401542&page=1&tbnh=130&tbnw=171&start=0&ndsp=21&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0,i:70&tx=82&ty=64″ rel=”nofollow”>The ABC microphone after the Greg Sheriden interview.

  15. victoria said:

    mr PP

    George has done this

    Thanks Victoria – I shoulda guessed! 🙂

    And I should offer my unreserved apologies to Warren Clark for lining up Hockey to play Dim!

  16. [Greg Sheridan: The ABC is an agent of anti-catholic sectarian hostility]

    You couldn’t write that better if you tried! Haha. This is brilliant.

  17. From the host of the QLD State 7.30 report

    [Jessica van Vonderen ‏@jessvanvonderen
    A spokesman for Clive Palmer says he’ll consider his position with the LNP over the weekend @abcnews
    2:10 PM – 14 Sep 12]

  18. [Yep, a poor wee catlick living in Shankill Rd and getting regular visits from Ian Paisley.]

    Aha. I assume Sheridan has a giant mural of Bobby Sands on his house too.

  19. OK Bludgers,

    Can anyone help? I was told today that there was an incident in parliament when Tony Abbott had to be physically restrained from attacking an opposition MP.

    I have done a search with this little bit of information but come up blank. Can anyone remember the incident and recall any more detail so I can hunt up the supporting documentation?

  20. [Greg Sheridan: The ABC is an agent of anti-catholic sectarian hostility]
    It is said to be a feature of persons with lower intelligence/cognitive skills, that they tend to take things more personally.
    Greg Sheridan, take a bow.

  21. It looks like Palmer will quit the LNP unless he can get them to dump Newman before Monday. He may end up standing for Lilley as a KAP candidate.

  22. [Hence Qanda reportedly snapping him up for its show.]

    Will he actually go through with it and appear?

    Or suddenly be ‘indisposed’? Or go on ‘unhinged’?

  23. QLD’s need to add a ‘try before you buy’ clause to future elections. They are getting royally screwed at the moment. I hope australians are getting a good look at these nutjobs.

  24. [In his “personal explanation” Mr Albanese cited a report in The Sydney Morning Herald by Alan Ramsey on June 24, 2000, which, incorrectly, reported Mr Abbott was ejected from the parliament “after moving in a threatening manner towards the opposition benches after Labor’s Graham Edwards, a legless Vietnam veteran, had interjected”.]

  25. Re Fortescue
    [Fortescue boss Andrew Forrest is in talks with Kerry Stokes’s company Westrac over a billion dollar sale and leaseback deal to save his iron ore empire.

    Sources have told BusinessDay the deal involved the embattled Fortescue selling its rolling stock and heavy machinery to Westrac for cash.

    Already, Westrac has a large exposure to Fortescue via a raft of charges and security over its plant and equipment. Westrac distributes Caterpillar equipment.]
    Read more:

  26. Actually the article I just linked says this

    [But other MPs who were there contradicted Mr Albanese last night and said that Mr Abbott, who was the first minister ejected in 40 years, had momentarily veered towards Tasmanian Labor MP Sid Sidebottom, who was sitting at the front of the opposition benches, after being told to leave the chamber.]

    Mr Sidebottom has both his legs and Mr Abbott later apologised to him for his behaviour.

  27. gloryconsequence
    [Greg Sheridan: The ABC is an agent of anti-catholic sectarian hostility

    You couldn’t write that better if you tried! Haha. This is brilliant]
    The full quote is even more magnificent. The ABC is..
    [an agitprop agent of sectarian hostility]

  28. I liked the ‘agit-prop’ bit too. I’m surprised he didn’t get in the ‘yellow peril’ and ‘Domino Theory’.

    BA would be disappointed but the ADA guy, Neil ‘whatever’, is no doubt warming up.


    During a sitting of Parliament during the Howard years Tony Abbott raced across the floor of The House of Representatives and physically attacked a legless Vietnam Veteran and member of Parliament, Graham Edwards. Abbott was expelled from the House and no other member has ever been expelled for such reasons.

    Don’t take my word for this. Research the Hansard for the Howard years.

    Graham is widely respected in the Vietnam War Veteran community and outside our community. He lost his legs during a tragic mine incident and has tirelessly worked for the betterment of his general community ever since the end of the Vietnam War. They don’t come with much more courage, dedication and selflessness than Graham Edwards. In Abbott’s eyes of course none of this matters because Graham chose to become a Labor member of Parliament and that is the worst sin possible in Tony Abbott’s eyes. Perhaps too Abbott was jealous that Graham has seen War and he hasn’t. Why anybody would be jealous that they have not been to War eludes me. Perhaps something to do with fake machomanism.

    Now, though Abbott won two blue ribbons as a boxer in his University of Oxford days in England and has fancied himself as a righteous thug ever since one would expect even he would pick on a Vietnam Veteran with legs. But no, having no legs is no bar to Tony Abbott attacking a Vietnam Veteran.

    Next time Tony Abbott addresses your group of Vietnam Veterans you should remind him of this attack and challenge him to take on somebody in your group WITH LEGS. Next time he visits your Military Unit, particularly in Afghanistan, you should do the same. Let’s see how Captain Courageous handles a fair fight.]

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