Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:
The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.
Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).
Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.
womble
[Hockey gets a mention now and then but once again, not popular with many in the party.]
And he’s just not up to it. He’s no leader.
SOF 4011 you have way too good a memory 🙂
Under current circumstances it’s probably best he hadn’t but I still wouldn’t have blamed him if he had.
It’d have to be either Hockey or Bishop.
Burgey
latika has said nothing further on her twitterstream on the matter
Last I checked – a couple of hours ago – it was the #1 or #2 most popular article for all the Fairfax papers. And just checking back now, still is – two articles on the issue, both in the top three most viewed for the five papers. Top two spots in both Age and SMH.
TLM
[Julia Gillard vs Malcolm Turnball would be a whole new ball game.]
Yes, because Malcolm would have to recalibrate all his previous statements where he bowed down to the Abbott theories.
[Not defending Tony Abbott, but I doubt this is the smoking gun that you all think it is.
It’ll impact the Liberal vote as minimally as the Slater/Gordon thing did for Labor earlier on.]
You are one RUSTED on liberal talking with forked tongue.
Morrison is their only realistic alternative.
Tony Abbott causing embarrassment for a female reporter on national tv 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7vD0p3nIiM&feature=fvwrel
If Rabbott goes turkey just imagine the pressure on the replacement to produce policy (Talcum would have a unique problem with this because the big money Lib supporters don’t like his ideas to start with) and Hockey, Bishop, etc haven’t got any sensible ideas of their own. Even if given policy ideas they would not be capable of defending them.
[Morrison is their only realistic alternative.]
He’s as bad as Abbott!.
TLM,
It’s not a smoking gun. Of course it isn’t. But it builds on negative preconceptions of the bloke. And to be perfectly fair, if this had come out of the blue without the opposition seeking to muck rake at every available instance, then I doubt little if anything would be made of it. In fact it may have perversely be seen as unfair on him. But it didn’t.
The thing about this is how Abbott reacts to it. You see, the public has in its very recent memory the manner in which the PM dealt with the allegations (or ephemeral whispers) against her – a performance widely lauded even by those who oppose her, and by everyone in the media. There is going to be available to the public a contemporaneous comparision between the way the PM dealt with those issues and the manner in which Abbott deals with these.
Looking at it as objectively as one can (ie, completely subjectively) it will be impossible for Abbott to deal with these matters any better than the PM did with the S&G stuff. At best he could handle it as well. But I don’t think he will. And therein lies a potential up side for the ALP.
Aguirre
The “Abbott:goon squad” article yesterday maintained its position at the top middle of the front page all day.
Hockey and Bishop would both be useless. Hockey’s incapable of pursuing his own arguments to the end of a presser, lapsing into vague generalities about halfway through at best. That speaks to both his intellectual discipline and his breadth of knowledge. And there’s a good reason Bishop makes an ideal deputy – no threat, ever, to the top job in the party.
I don’t think you can take any of the others seriously – Robb, Pyne, Morrison… I’m running out of ideas already.
First daretoread imploring us to stop picking on poor Tony. Now TLM defending Abbott.
Transparent much?
4009
Thornleigh Labor Man
[One problem with salivating over the supposed demise of Abbott – the Liberals might replace him with someone far better and that’d present a new problem for the Gillard Government.]
The Coalition has no credible Plan B. Discuss.
Besides, Abbott’s demise is basically self-inflicted, and Labor probably do not have much more influence on how it all unfolds for him now.
Which is why I think they should be very careful about going too hard on it, too directly. Keep the general question of his character in the public’s eye, certainly, but indirectly. For example, now might be a good time for a modest policy spruik on one or two women’s issues? Nothing too obvious, like domestic violence. But something substantial, to clearly remind the world of an important difference between the two sides.
Abbott has pretty well lost the female vote. So questions about his character and suitability need to be aimed more at male voters now.
poroti:
“Abbott goon squad” is just as relevent today when you look at his front bench.
He’s just Abbott with even less to talk about. He’s slightly better at pretending to be sincere. But that’s not saying much. Plus he has the drawback of apparently believing his malarkey on AS. That’s the one issue where you need a lot of flexibility, as the goalposts keep shifting.
Because I am biased (in PBLand anyway) and evil it would be funny if Abbott got a sympathy bounce from this. It really depends on how this is being presented in radio-land a place I seldom venture in to. How are the shock jocks presenting all this?
confessions,
I don’t think TLM is defending Abbott at all. He was posting about likely fall out, wasn’t he? Having a go at prognosticating like we all do (and as I did in my last post).
I seriously don’t think it’s the allegations which are the issue, it’s how he deals with them now. If these reports keep coming out in dribs and drabs, he’s going to have to put a line under it. And if he’s realistically going to do that, he will need to face a presser like the PM did a few weeks back.
And I seriously don’t know if he’s up to doing that at all.
Joe Hockey is a useless Treasurer, so he even worse as Alternative PM.
Bishop is meh material.
Those in the Coalition Camp were the ones who originally blocked the PBO (Parliamentary Budget Office).
4014
Thornleigh Labor Man
[Julia Gillard vs Malcolm Turnball would be a whole new ball game.]
And Australia would be much the better for it.
Rather lose to Turnbull than Abbott.
1934pc
[He’s as bad as Abbott!.]
I know, but Morrison would probably be up to the job. Hockey and Bishop aren’t. Turnbull is, would only be divisive.
Abbott Press Conference plus accompanying story:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-14/abbott-denies-punching-wall-next-to-rivals-head/4260714
but would only be divisive.
davidwh
[Because I am biased (in PBLand anyway) and evil it would be funny if Abbott got a sympathy bounce from this.]
Yes davidwh, having thoughts like that is definitely 👿
@Just Me/4072
There is no limit to how many times one can challenge the leader.
Me guess that Abbott would be in for round 2, even if Turnbull is leader.
The preliminary results of the Dutch election are interesting. Voters there appear to have moved support to the centre of the spectrum away from the fringes.
Geert Wilders’ right wing party and the GreenLeft lost seats to the centre-right and centre-left. The Christian Democrats also lost a lot of seats.
I do genuinly hope for all your sakes poroti that Labor get a poll bounce this weekend. If they can’t manage a bounce after this weeks events then the prospect of Abbott PM start to look way too likely.
The week has been GOLD for Labor in so many aspects.
But yes I am definitely evil 🙂
Joe Hockey as the new LOTO – should have got the job last time.
Right connections, right state, can prosecute a case, media friendly, probably needs to lose a few pounds.
[How are the shock jocks presenting all this?]
Probably saying that Ramjan deserved to be punched.
sortius @sortius
Redmond says cuts figure ‘popped into my head’ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-14/redmond-says-cuts-figure-popped-into-her-head/4261136 … Another LNP leader with nothing but contempt for the PS. #auspol #sapol
I’m amazed that some think Morrisson is a contender.
[I’m amazed that some think Morrisson is a contender.]
God I hope not. I think I would prefer Mirabella to Morrison.
4025
Thornleigh Labor Man
[Outside the bubble of Poll Bludger, I wonder how many ordinary voters really care about what Tony Abbott might or might not have done at Sydney Uni 35 years ago?
Just an observation.]
A lot more than you think. Most people with a daughter, for a start.
But lacks authority, sprocket_.
[KevinWilde @KevinWilde 18m
Plibersek says Tony Abbott has been in witness protection all week. #Auspol]
[I’m amazed that some think Morrisson is a contender.]
Only by default due to a lack of other contenders. I don’t think he’s PM material but could do LOTO job okay.
davidwh
[I think I would prefer Mirabella to Morrison.]
Would be just as ridiculous a proposition!
😆
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 11:19 am | Permalink
One problem with salivating over the supposed demise of Abbott – the Liberals might replace him with someone far better and that’d present a new problem for the Gillard Government.]
And that won’t be good for the country?
This is what Federal Labor need to focus on
[Senator Penny Wong @SenatorWong 20h
NSW, Vic, and Qld – education cuts and jobs gone. Now Libs want mass sackings in SA too #thisiswhatLibsdo]
davidwh
[But yes I am definitely evil 🙂 ]
As Mandy used to say ‘Oooh you are awful……But I like you.” 🙂
I had to think of the most unlikely person for comparison Ctar.
Realistically it could only come from Hockey, Turnbull or Bishop and I know which one would make the better PM and not because I am prejudice against women and/or porkies.
Update from the Golden West:
*Doubt whether the Abbott thing will mean much yet poll-wise – hasn’t seeped into the consciousness of the lumpen proletariat.
*ABC talkback in Perth = nil reference with anything to do with Abbott – same applies to Red Neck radio – 6PR – to date.
*Only pollie on ABC news locally has been Morrison – on the hour for the past 2-3 hours – going on about “disowning” the new island policy. Just why he has got so much air time over this I am not sure.
*The big trawler has gone from “being a close vote” to an item which has disappeared over the horizon
*In the West, its all football and the worry about FMG.
While the Abbott thing is making some savour his discomfort here – me included – still some way from adding votes to the progressive side just yet!
[SOF 4011 you have way too good a memory]
Just teasing! It’s amazing how improved my faculties are now I’ve sworn off Fairfax publications.
[@tveedercom: “I think he sounds shifty &, frankly, a lot of women think he is shifty.” @Greens Sarah Hanson-Young on Tony Abbott]
Not Grattan, she thinks That Just Tone’s real nifty.
If there was a spill, and I don’t think there would be, the result would depend if Abbott stood again.
If Abbott stood again, no shadow cabinet person could stand against him, or come out against him in public, and not end their career.
A deal would have to be stitched up behind the closed doors with at least Pyne, Turnbull, Hockey, Robb and Bishop uniting behind one leader. I just cant see that happening.
Tony Abbott : ” I did not have pugilistic relations with that wall.”
I seriously can’t believe Redmond said off the top of her head how many jobs would go.
[poroti
Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 at 12:12 pm | Permalink
Tony Abbott : ” I did not have pugilistic relations with that wall.”
]
I was Tony Abbott’s second-best friend at Sydney University. I kept his stained shirt from that fateful night.
Burgey:
This is why I’ve been happy for the Abbott stories from that time to keep coming out: he can’t handle scrutiny.
There’s also the fact that the coalition haven’t been setting the agenda for some time now. Tingle says today it’s since the carbon price was implemented. Something has definately changed.