Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on last week at 55-45, from primary votes of 34% for Labor (unchanged), 47% for the Coalition (down one to a six-month low) and 9% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up four on approval to 35% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Tony Abbott records his worst net rating yet with approval down four to 32% and disapproval up four to 55%. Gillard now leads 40-37 as preferred prime minister after trailing 38-36 last time. There are also the following findings on the present government’s reforms:

The introduction of a carbon price is the only major Labor reform with net voter opposition, Essential found. Only 28% of voters thought the introduction of a carbon price was good for Australia, with 51% rating it bad — indeed, 35% of voters rated it “very bad”. Otherwise, support for Labor reforms seems to split into three: highly contested reforms that have majority support, such as the mining tax (supported 49-25%); the NBN (43-28%) and the abolition of WorkChoices (42-27%); mid-tier reforms with widespread approval — paid parental leave (52-20%); stimulus spending during the GFC (54-22% – the BER program is supported 53-20%); accepting the recommendations of the Houston panel on asylum seekers (45-15%) and paid parental leave 52-20%.

Then there are the reforms with very high support: lifting the age pension (70-11%); increasing super to 12% (68-9%); lifting the tax-free threshold to $18,200 (75-4%); the NDIS (58-5%); marine reserves (controversial in some areas but with 67-8% support); dental care (77-5%) and the Gonski education reforms (54-8%).

Also canvassed are Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan and the role of unions in the wake of the HSU scandals and the CFMEU/Grocon dispute in Melbourne – matters which were also covered in a Morgan phone poll of 410 voters conducted Wednesday, results of which can be seen here and here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,836 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Fran we have probably done the subject of CarbonLie/CarbonNoLie to death and the PM has 12 months more to convince sufficient voters she didn’t lie to win the next election. She is gaining some traction so if we are both still around in 12 months we will see how it all pans out.

  2. [Did you sort out the anti-nbn loudmouth?]

    SK – Wouldn’t cha know – the loudmouth had handed over to somebody else by the time I got back there. Had visitors yesterday so I didn’t have time to find anything but this morning I’ve trawled through and got all comments (thanks Bludgers one and all).

    I am now well armed and have noted the delimiter stuff argument with Turnbull. I’ve save some other stuff on the PC so will get it off as well.

    I know where loudmouth hangs out so will take great delight in dropping it all on his plate while he’s with others. Of course I’ll let them know it’s to head off his misinformation campaign.

    Final round to me tho – his group didn’t get up!

  3. I doubt that most Australians would want to be reminded of Mr Morrison’s associations with asylum seekers. As for Ms Bishop, it is hard to see that her colleagues would have much faith in someone who has serial failures as shadow spokesperson to her credit.

  4. Well, its seems that the Carbon Tax and Gillard personally are holding back overwhelming support for the government.

    Everything else is pretty good.

    With el Nino on the comeback trail (farmers ringing in to Macca on Sundays are already whingeing about lack of rain) the CT should improve, or even become majority supported.

    There’s probably some residual stuff from “The Lie” (that hardly anyone saw at the time, but have convinced themselves that they did) spilling over into the CT figures as well.

    Also as the effects turn out to be not so disastrous, the relatively benign nature of the reforms will add to improvement. I certainly can’t see Carbon Tax approval going down from here. Things can only improve for Labor.

    So, it all boils down to Julia Gillard’s personal approval, and even that is on the upward swing, although slowly.

    Once that improves, the rest will follow.

    Likewise some reverse pollination from the improvement in Carbon Tax approval (sure to come in my opinion) may spill back to Gillard personally. It may well yet be seen as a relatively prudent thing to introduce.

    Although there is a certain amount of petulance in the electorate concerning The Lie and the Rudd business, once Rudd gives up – which I expect him to do pretty soon – there will be no alternative. So the Rudd lovers who are inclined to favour Labor will drift back.

    On the other side, Abbott continues to tank. He’s got nowhere to go. He’s not incumbent in government, and he’s only going to unhinge more as time goes by and the journos get used to the idea of baiting him.

    We all hear about so-called friendly dogs that, for reasons unknown, turn on their master, or bite a kid when it plays too rough.

    Same thing with the media, a pack of rabid dogs if ever there was one, and not to be trusted… by Abbott, in particular. Once he starts unhinging on a regular basis – and can we expect anything else? No-one thinks he’s going to improve as the pressure piles on, do they? – look for a feeding frenzy as they all line up to take a chunk out of him. Every point for Gillard in the positive direction is worth two in the negative direction for Abbott.

    Throw in a bit of media proprietor introspection – talking down the economy is only harming their businesses, and why they do it when they talk up just about everything else is beyond me – may save the day late in the piece as their share prices tank and the mass retrenchment and sackings have their effect on already exhausted staff ranks. An about-face in corporate attitude to supporting a failing opposition at the cost of their businesses may be in order.

    Better, if not good times ahead for Labor. You can’t basically approve most of the programs and plans of a government so wholeheartedly – with the opposition vowing to repeal them – without the disconnect becoming too obvious, even to the slowest thinkers.

    One thing I think we can safely say: there won’t be any September Challenge. Rudd will have to wait, if his supporters don’t lose their nerve in the meantime.

  5. Boerwar @ 54

    Gecko
    Agree. The shortest distance between two points here would be to close alcohol dispensing activities at midnight.

    Add 1 more vote for that.

  6. [Malcolm Farr ‏@farrm51
    KRudd paired to attend World Economic Forum in China. Invited to chair a panel. Big event. Still, Opposition v generous to let him go.]

  7. @BH/55

    Don’t forget the Commentary from Delimiter vs Joe Hockey as well.

    The Shadow Treasure – you know – our “alternative”.

  8. [Malcolm Farr ‏@farrm51
    Year ago tTAbbott was threatening to bar Labor MPs going to birth of child. One MP today said, “They obviously like him (KRudd).” (2/2)]

  9. lizzie
    It says something for the Opposition’s ability to debase governance that even someone like Mr Farr would describe pairing in such as circumstance as being ‘generous’.

  10. While Local council election are a pain in the butt, and most people cannot be bothered to vote or want to vote. There were a lot of worrying signs or very worrying signs for the Green/ALP

    Green’s vote has been collapsing for the last year, since the introduction of the carbon tax legislation All 3 election had shown the collapse of the Green vote (Qld, NT and NSW Council). For me, I call this the doctor’s wife’s returning effect, where the doctor’s wife through the environment was such a great idea, but when they actually have to pay for it and the doctor’s wife found out they have to reduce their shoe shopping from 10 to 9 every month, the Greens does not seem such a great idea.

    It is also not very good news for the ALP, when places like Liverpool, Auburn and Rockdale are showing the Liberal vote being higher then the ALP and the Liberals have decisive leds in places like Ryde, Stratfield, Parramatta, Kogarah, Randwick, Hurstville, all traditional ALP areas

    These trends are very bad for the ALP, and are showing traditional working subrubs leaving the ALP decisively. When Liverpool votes by 44%-30% for a Liberal Mayor, the ALP cannot be very happy with that election

  11. bemused @ 47

    I think that is exactly what is happening. Labor have now got themselves in a position that legislation they need to negotiate with the Greens is done.

    Their current proposals on NDIS and education will be voted for by the Greens anyway.

    So Ms Milne and the other pixies will get a friendly ‘wave’ and that’s about it from here on.

    What is happening with the Slipper/Cabcharge/DPP is a concern, I think.

  12. davidwh:

    [Ctar yes because in effect for every vote that Labor pulls back from the Greens it only improves their overall position by 0.2 of a vote. ]

    It’s worse than that in practice because the only way they can hope to claw votes back from us is by going negative against us. That’s not necessarily going to get many of our soft votes back for them because the obvious question arises: if the Greens are so reprehensible, why have you accepted their support, gone into government with them?

    Casting the Greens as a threat to Australia’s interests taints the ALP in the eyes of people who worry about left-of-centre radicalism. Making one of the criteria by which the regime is to be assessed the extent to which they resist irresponsible people on th their left makes the debate about matters in which the ALP will always be on the defensive.

    If you are the ALP you want the election to be fought out on things that make you look good rather than things that at best make you look dubious — which is why making asylum seekers a big issue was very poor policy.

    Were I running the ALP’s messaging, the most effective line on the Greens is that the ALP is willing to work with anyone who favours stable government and social justice but that their arrangement with the Greens was quite limited and related only to areas in which policy was similar — such as pricing carbon emissions. As the recent debates on asylum seekers showed, both parties reserved the right to disagree sharply. The real threat to the welfare of this country came from the Liberals whose reckless and unthinking policy of opposing everything and proposing nothing was an attempt to repeat Campbell Newman’s effort in QLD — to hide their real agenda, and spring a a series of nasty suprises on people afterwards — work choices, massive cuts to services, the reversal of the progress on the NBN, NDIS, etc …

  13. [Don’t forget the Commentary from Delimiter vs Joe Hockey as well.]

    zoidlord – Thanks for that. I’d forgotten that so will get it.

  14. Just a reminder. Gaining votes off the Greens will win Labor no election. Gaining votes off the LNP will.

    Keep that firmly in mind whenever you make comments about the Greens. Remember also that attacking the Greens is what Abbott wants as it holds up his they do not really believe in the carbon price it is all Greens meme.

  15. Lizzie: as I said yesterday, the only people I know who bang on about it are Liberal voters.

    What gets me is of the approximately 15 people I have spoken about this issue with, not one remembers her saying it during the campaign. Sure, they have seen the footage SINCE and have heard the libs repeat part of what she said ad nauseum, but as I always say to them, if you have no recollection of her saying it at the time, how can it possibly have affected the votes? It didn’t affect their vote, so why should it have affected anyone else’s?

    They see the logic in this, yet still remain absolutely convinced that there was a swag of voters who only voted Labor because she said this. You cannot convince them otherwise.

    And, interestingly, all these people are Liberal voters. They are the ones absolutely obsessed about “the lie”.

    Oh, and the meme that Greens are really running the country. I had fun with my friend with that one yesterday. I asked her to explain that ridiculous statement and all she could say was “Carbon Tax”. Nothing else. Oh, and she did seem to think that Bob Brown was still leader of the Greens! When I pointed out that he was no longer even in the Senate, she got annoyed with ME, as if it was my fault she was making herself look like a total prat.

    Which it was, I suppose. Anyway, I learned a lesson. Never have an argument with anyone who votes a certain way just because their parents did. They are political numbskulls.

  16. lizzie
    I am not only sick of the sheliedlie, I am angry that these scumbags have stopped us enjoying the term of our first female PM. It should have been something we were proud of, could talk about and even bask in the warm glow of, all the while seeing a fantastic legislative agenda passed.

    But no, we have had months and months of bluddy dummy-spitting spiteful foul invective and tantrums from every numbskull in the country and with the MSM gleefully egging on behaviour that should have been condemned.

    I resent this. I highly resent it.

  17. It is pleasing to see that around 30% (MOE and rounding qualificiations) of Greens voters have resiled since the last election.

    This is despite the Greens doing costings-free and fundings-free populist sniping at Labor combined with the habitual Greens grabbing of credit for Labor’s achievements.

    Then the Greens have the gall to suggest that Labor should not attack them!

  18. I can’t see anybody else leading the Coalition other than Abbott. Howard deliberately left them devoid of an heir apparent for his own survival and they were hollowed out in 2007. Abbott is the same. Failure to rebuild when they had the chance will be amplified three fold if/when beaten in 2013. A Coalition defeat (no matter how narrow) will expose the reality that they have not moved forward one iota in talent or idea for almost a decade. I suspect the ALP, once over the election hump, will be in for quite a while.

  19. Lizzie,
    I responded to Farr’s tweet. I said it was like saying someone was humane because they stopped beating their donkey.

  20. The same Greens who say that Labor should not attack the Greens say that Labor is the same as the Coalition.

    But you do not hear them suggesting the Coalition should not attack the Greens.

    A classic Greens Diconnect.

  21. Boerwar

    I have it on good authority that your costings analysis of the Greens policy position has resulted in the fall in the Green vote.

  22. For those going on about the Essential personal ratings, they go up and they go down but they don’t mean squat unless there is a very clear difference between the two (i.e 10%+)

    It will remain that way for as long as Gillard and Abbott remain leaders. It ties right into how people view democracy which then ties right into how certain people feel about their economic situation/circumstances, security etc. That’s what the unhinging is

  23. The news tape says JG is taking two days off. That is a mistake I believe. She will be still in shock, two days is nowhere near enough. Someone in the party needs to tell her to ease off for a couple of weeks. There is nothing urgent enough that she needs to be away from her family.

  24. BW

    There you go again. Where in my post did I say do not attack the Greens. I said bear in mind what your main enemy wants was my point.

  25. Six years ago I wrote an article for Australian Photography, saying the future of “street” photography wasn’t in bigger and bulkier cameras, but that the cameras of tomorrow would be worn as glasses.

    The future of street or candid photography wouldn’t be in being able to manipulate a complicated set of dials and buttons, hiding it from your subject, pretending to look the other way – a conjurer’s trick really – but would just require the photographer to look and to edit afterwards. Recognition of &w=324&h=468&ei=B21NUL-tL8WZiQfFsYDACA&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=686&sig=108458087889480200428&page=1&tbnh=129&tbnw=87&start=0&ndsp=52&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0,i:73&tx=37&ty=64″ rel=”nofollow”>”The Decisive Moment” would reside more in the human context and less in the array of equipment or in an ability to hide from your subject, when you should be one with them instead.

    Glad I got something right.

    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/technology-hits-new-york-runways-20120910-25nmw.html

  26. JG made a grave strategic error in my opinion when she allowed Brown and Milne to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with her as she announced the carbon price policy. The fat grins on the Green faces didn’t help her cause either. It doesn’t pay to gloat when you are telling people they are getting what they don’t want. It should make a great L-NP election poster.

  27. http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/09/strange-rituals-and-bad-jokes.html

    [10 September 2012
    Strange rituals and bad jokes

    I remember reading this shower of piffle from the ABC’s Head of Policy and Staff Development and dreading the prospect of appalling and inadequate coverage of the next election. Reading Greg Jericho’s The Rise of the Fifth Estate gave me the ability to validate and articulate that dread. After viewing the US election from afar you have to wonder whether the ground is starting to shift under Mr Sunderland’s feet: ]

  28. [The news tape says JG is taking two days off. That is a mistake I believe. She will be still in shock, two days is nowhere near enough. Someone in the party needs to tell her to ease off for a couple of weeks. There is nothing urgent enough that she needs to be away from her family.]

    Agree with this wholeheartedly. And, after the media ‘no tears’ accusation during the Qld floods there is nothing to be gained politically either.

  29. PTMD

    I agree with you. The toxic BS I hear from bogans around the country is deeply worrying to me. Manners and integrity that I hold dear have been trashed and rendered meaningless.

  30. Puff @ 83

    Everyone handles these situations differently. She may find getting back to work and being busy will help her through things, though I do agree only a few days off seems a bit short.

    Wasn’t Rudd back to work quickly after his mother passed away? I remember Latham commented on it.

  31. @GMegalogenis: Definition of political correctness: telling people they can’t marry. Righteous opponents of gay marriage are more ‘left’ than they realise.

  32. God, Abbott bowls up a free hit, and Swan misses the opportunity to go to town on the Liberals’ own black hole of uncosted spending.

  33. davidwh:

    [Fran we have probably done the subject of CarbonLie/CarbonNoLie to death]

    Apparently not, as you are still running it. IIRC, this is called a zombie argument — no matter how many times it is killed, it returns, staggering about with a vacant expression and threatening growl hoping to feed on the brains of the living. Begone foul creature!.

    Until this one can be placed in a pit, have salt poured on it and then incinerated, we are probably going to have to try the ritual banishment.

    ….

    Moving on …

    I’m of the view that the ALP retains plausible winning chances in 2013.

    1. The political cycle — the actual experience of the Coaltion governments on the eastern seaboard will dampen enthusiasm for a similar regime in Canberra. In particualr, Campbell Newman’s claim that he was the best friend Public Servants could have is similar to Abbott’s claim to be the best friend of Australian workers …
    2. There’s only so long you can repeat tired old phrases “this Prime Minister” “this bad government” “Juliar” “carbon tax” before even people who thought them fair comment begin to demand you change the record. If Abbott is still trying this in February-March, it’s not going to be good for him, IMO
    3. There are embryonic signs that even the Murdoch-led media is tiring of the Coalition — Marius Benson and Barnaby Joyce this morning was case in point, Abbott snapping at Lisa Wilkinson and Leigh Sales.
    4. July 1 2013 if the economy was where it was roughly the year earlier, the carbon “python” will be exposed as a child’s plaything. The “Abbott makes stuff up” line will be very effective
    5. The government will be able to point to a good many positive things that it has done that would be at risk under a coalition regime — NBN, the raising of the tax threshhold, NDIS (“aspirational” for the Libs), Gonski, MRRT money etc … They can point to equal pay in female dominated professions, rises in pensions, superannuation simplification, plain pack and much else. I have a vision of them doing a version of Life of Brian‘s “what have the Romans ever done for us?”

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