Update (3/9/12): Essential Research. The weekly Essential Research report has fallen into line with other pollsters in giving Labor its best result since March – up two on the primary vote to 34% and one on two-party preferred to 55-45. The Coalition is down a point to 48%, a result it last recorded in April. The poll has 52% thinking female politicians receive more criticism than men against only 4% less and 40% the same, and very similar results (51%, 6% and 38%) when the subject is narrowed to Julia Gillard specifically. A question on which groups would be better off under Labor or Liberal governments find traditional attitudes to the parties are as strong as ever, with wide gaps according to whether the group could be perceived as disadvantaged (pensioners, unemployed, disabled) or advantaged (high incomes, large corporations, families of private school children). Respondents continue to think it likely that a Coalition government would bring back laws similar to WorkChoices (51% likely against 25% unlikely).
Deakin is centred on the eastern Melbourne suburbs of Blackburn and Nunawading, extending eastwards along the Maroondah Highway to Ringwood and Croydon. At the time of its creation in 1937, it extended far beyond the city limits to Seymour and Mansfield, before gaining its wholly urban orientation in 1969 and assuming roughly its current dimensions when it lost Box Hill in 1977. A trend of increasing Liberal support as the electorate extends eastwards is better explained by diminishing ethnic diversity than by income: in its totality, the electorate is demographically unexceptional on all measures. The redistribution has cut the Labor margin from 2.4% to 0.6% by transferring 18,000 voters in the electorate’s south-western corner, at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill, to Chisholm; adding 8000 voters immediately to the east of the aforementioned area, around Vermont South, from Aston; and adding another 10,000 voters around Croydon in the north-east, mostly from Casey but partly from Menzies.
For a seat that has been marginal for most of its history, Deakin has brought Labor remarkably little joy: prior to 2007 their only win was when the Hawke government came to power in 1983, and it was lost again when Hawke went to the polls early in December 1984. The seat presented a picture of electoral stability from 1984 to 2001, when Liberal margins ranged only from 0.7% to 2.5% (although the 1990 redistribution muffled the impact of a 4.3% Liberal swing). Julian Beale held the seat from 1984 until the 1990 election, when he successfully challenged controversial Bruce MP Ken Aldred for preselection after redistribution turned the 1.5% margin into a notional 1.9% margin for Labor. Aldred accepted the consolation prize of Deakin and was able to retain the seat on the back of a sweeping statewide swing to the Liberals. He was in turn unseated for preselection in 1996 by Phillip Barresi, who held the seat throughout the Howard years.
Barresi emerged from the 2004 election with a margin of 5.0%, the biggest the Liberals had known in the seat since 1977. The substantial swing required of Labor at the 2007 election was duly achieved with 1.4% to spare by Mike Symon, whose background as an official with the Left faction Electrical Trades Union had made him a target of Coalition barbs amid controversies surrounding union colleagues Dean Mighell and Kevin Harkins. Symon’s preselection had been achieved through a three-vote win over local general practitioner Peter Lynch, the candidate from 2004, who reportedly won the 50% local vote component before being rebuffed by the state party’s tightly factionalised Public Office Selection Committee. Andrew Crook of Crikey reported that Symon had backing from the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy Right as a quid pro quo for Left support for Peter McMullin’s unsuccessful bid for preselection in Corangamite. Symon was re-elected in 2010 with a 1.0% swing in the face of an attempt by Phillip Barresi to recover his old seat, which was perfectly in line with the statewide result. He was rated by one source as undecided as Kevin Rudd’s challenge to Julia Gillard’s leadership unfolded in February 2012, but soon fell in behind Gillard.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax specialist with Ashurt, the law firm previously known as Blake Dawson. Sukkar emerged a surprise preselection winner over John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. VexNews reported that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes and Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Pesutto was in first place, state government staffer Michelle Frazer was second, and Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to sneak ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have prevailed against Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.
That was another good interview by Leigh Sales. She put the PM through the hoops and Julie Gillard handled it very well. Clearly well prepared for the interview.
abbott just wouldn’t have been up to that sort of interview as we saw last time with Leigh Sales.
Problem is that the msm are pushing the “big spending Labor” theme, and “where’s the money coming from”. At least the govt has its eyes on education, health, dental, disability, etc.
When the Libs decide on their cuts, what will they cut? education, health, welfare, disability – anything that improves the life of the poorer people.
dave doubt Abbott will be back for another go real soon. Isnt it amazing that the PM is subjected to this type of interview and questioning daily. And copes well.
Abbott has had two difficult interviews this whole year
The PM is very smart to start putting pressure on states to deliver funding increases on schools. How can a Labor federal government afford it if a Liberal state government cant?
Better managers of money, perhaps?
Andrew
Just because the journos are incapable of thinking on the same scale as the PM they seem to adopt a defensive position. I think they are threatened. As the PM was talking about education standards today I wonder how many journos were reflecting on their own position and wondering why they couldn’t achieve the grades required to get a real job. They are fast becoming irrelevant for our modern society – they don’t build anything or grow anything. At best they are entertainment for some suckers that believe what they are fed.
According to the PM the schooling system needs improving, but they are the product of that same system. They have attached their ego’s to their jobs so the PM is directly attacking their intellect by attacking the school system from whence they came. Having their jobs on the line right now does not help either.
Here is an overview of where the major parties are contesting in the NSW Local Government elections this Saturday:
http://poliquant.com/nsw-local-government-elections-overview-of-the-2012-party-contest/
Hey, why didn’t we get a PB notification that the PM was being interviewed? I missed it.
Why isn’t 7.30 on ABC News 24? I don’t understand the logic.
Problem for the MSM is the budget will be in surplus in May – it may not be in a year but for this year it will – so its difficult to sell where the money coming from with a surplus.
Ru, poor petals, them #MSMhacks are really touchy ATM.
You’re right there, Andrew.
Abbot cops a toughie and it’s headline news.
“Wath that wotten cow Leigh Saleth too tough on poor Tonesey-Wonsey, the peopleth fweind?”
Gillard cops one and it’s hardly even noted.
Yet,by their own estimation, Abbott will inevitably be the one in the Lodge next yearm, and not Gillard.
Why don’t they question him harder?
He’s a protected species before he’s elected, and one afterwards.
“Just an Opposition Leader”up until the election and “On a honeymoon” after.
Well @leighsales , PM 10 Abbott 0
Policy wise, that seems to be the situation the ALP is setting up as the lead in to the next election.
All their big commitments, that they have to show they can fund in the next budget over the forward estimates, are in areas that the Noalition are going to find it politically difficult to make big cuts in.
It seems to me that if the ALP do bring in any kind of surplus this year, and have a credible budget on the table in May 2013, then the Noalition are going to be in all kinds of bother trying to come up with a credible campaign that really differentiates them from the ALP for mid-late 2013. They may well have nuthin but BOATS BOO!! Poor petals. 🙂
lizzie – 2 themes the media has taken from the NPC today – no money, will take too long.
I’m still waiting to hear some intelligent discussion from them about the benefits to kids and their future.
That would be policy, not politics.
I had an interesting conversation with a lifetime ALP voter the other day. I asked her about her current thoughts and she does not like Gillard. I asked her why not and it was all about trust – she tells lies apparently. Aside from the BS ‘Carbon Tax’ one I asked her for other examples. She could not give me any and then said she did not want to talk about it any more.
She had swallowed the LNP BS, aided and abetted by the MSM.
BH
Exactly. And they didn’t seem to understand the spaced rolling out of these policies – talked as if all billions all to be spent next year.
thirdborn314
7.30 is replayed on 24 later in the evening. Sorry, don’t know the time.
This situation colors their whole thinking.
Consider: if you were in a job with no continuity, no tenure, anger, suspicion and mistrust in every corner, with the imminent fall of the axe perhaps just days away (and – shit! – you didn’t take the package when you had the chance), wouldn’t you want the rest of the world to feel like you’re feeling?
Thus, the glass half full becomes one that’s half empty.
Their company doesn’t care about them. Why should they care about their company? Trash the joint. Who GIVES a shit?
lizzie @1802,
The more the MSM put up tests for the PM and the more she responds to them the less effect the demands will have.
Just have a look at how the carbon debate has gone.
The government has the mid year update and the budget in May to set out costings for all its policy.
Education, NDIS and anything else will be budgeted for and funding will be transparent.
The opposition does not have this option. It does not know where the budget is placed and what savings the government will come up with. Many of the savings will pull the rug out from under the opposition. They are running blind and this is and will continue to be to the advantage of the government which has control of the purse strings.
All the opposition can do is continue with the and will continue with the “wait and see what we will do ” line.
The comparison will be stark.
The very positive GDP figures for the June quarter being released this week will also help the government .
This article says the countries which beat us in education do so by huge amounts of after school extra tutoring.
http://theconversation.edu.au/gillards-truths-obscure-the-facts-on-schools-funding-9226
And thats just the Qld Public Service. 🙁
Great Paralympics clip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riR_SyhvB6s&feature=player_embedded
So Barnaby Joyce and Chris Pyne are exactly the opposite on Cubby Station. Pyne today said he had no problem with it, but Joyce is all over the news criticising it. Why the hell aren’t the MSM calling them out. They do this all the time, talk out both sides of the mouth so that someone, somewhere is hearing something they want to hear.
I didn’t know this.
dave
I was afraid she’d go overboard to prove that she’s fair to both sides, but she didn’t do that, and Gillard is simply too well across her brief to embarrass herself as Abbott did last week. No doubt Lib voters/press will cry foul and bias tomorrow.
thirdborn314
I don’t understand the logic of putting the same program on two channels at once. Don’t you get ABC1?
Doyley
I was pleased that the PM’s answer to all the question was, in the end, wtte wait until the budget and then you’ll see how we’re going to do it.
In other words, stop nit picking until you see how it pans out.
Who will be first in the “break the Newspoll first” race tonight … James J, GhostWhoVotes (who scandalously wasn’t mentioned in Greg Jericho’s book) or Troy Bramston …
My money’s on James J
triton
I do but there is a lot of tosh on ABC 1 so I have to remember to switch over for 7.30. I would have thought 7.30 is classified as news and would be better than the constantly recycled information that we get now.
It’s just me being lazy and forgetful.
Poliquant – I’ve been working on the prepolls (MidNorthCoast) and got this week to go. It’s been a fair size turnout so far.
There’s nothing stopping parents here doing the same thing.
What matters is that, by hook or by crook, these countries are thriving and we dig holes for a living.
Then we flog the dirt off to them. They improve its value, then sell it back to us for twenty times the price they paid for it… as cars, Blu-Ray players, TV screens, laboratory instruments, machine tools, ships, computers, intergated circuits, Iphone lookalikes, patent royalties and just about anything else clever you care to shake a stick at.
Sure they eat dog meat, which allows us to regard them as grubbly little yellow people who swarm in filthy, overcrowded cities and eat their pets.
Of course, they regard us as little better than kanakas wielding sticks.
http://news.yahoo.com/supersonic-flying-wing-nabs-100-000-nasa-155935257.html
OT, but a remarkably cool concept.
thirdborn314 @1815
I have had conversations with ALP members (some who have been members for over 50 years) who say similar things about Gillard. It’s a common view. Thank Shorten, Arbib, Bitar, Feeney, Farrell et al for creating it
The problem with the Gonski Education Reforms is the word “education”.
“Education” is also one of the words that constitute B.E.R.
Gonski = school halls.
If they can’t do school halls, how can they do Gonski.
(Essentially the meme on tonight’s ABC TV News).
If tonight #Newspoll is 52-48, you can hear Peta Credlin’s screaming again: “Abbott, you fuacking idiot”
How convenient of you Spur.
Diogenes @1819,
I read that as well.
It continues to amaze me the way some so called experts continue to argue the line that it is all too hard therefore we should not even try.
that article is nothing but an excuse for doing nothing and not even trying.
Think of all the progress and breakthroughs in science, medicine etc etc that have been made in Australia by Australians.
If the people involved had just sat back and said, ” it is all too hard, the odds are stacked against us so why even try ? ” where would we be ?
There is more than one way to succeed in any venture and just because circumstances are different does not mean success is not possible.
The author of that article is, as far as I am concerned, just a miserable git.
It won’t be.
I predict 56-44, with accompanying commentary on how deaths at sea, and in Afghanistan, plus how the government is going to afford the Gonski Education reforms have all combined to sow doubt in the public’s mind etc. etc.
So if the states try and derail the school reforms, and the Feds were to respond by raising their collective middle finger and shifting some of the funding that would have gone to the states into means tested rebates for parents who engage tutors in certain subjects, (maybe even organised through schools, after school programs) would that be worthy of a laugh??
BB
It’s not actually but you’ve already made up your mind
spur212,
As I have observed before, the problem in Labor is the followship and not the Leadership.
Buying the MSM crap seems very fashionable in the circles you mix.
It’s also a well known fact that people whose time has passed are much better at running things than those actually invested with the responsibility today. My view is you and your cohort should stop the whingeing and back biting and get on with supporting the only Labor Government there is.
Congratulations to Natalie Bennett, newly elected leader of The Greens of England and Wales.
Interestingly, she’s an Aussie export, born in Sydney who worked for a time as a journalist in Cootamundra and the Riverina.
Well done her …
BH @ 1828,
Thanks for the tip!
James J normally swings by at 10.10pm or thereabouts.
Bushfire Bill
The last PISA ranking put NZ ahead of Japan and even further ahead of Australia. Compared to Straya there is fcuk all thriving going on there. But then maybe the template was set by Howie and Tone’s hero Menzies ? Having built the 3rd or 4th computer in the world CSIRO were told by Menzies to “cease and desist” because merino wool research was THE priority and the future for “Straya”.
Doyley
I couldn’t work out the point of the article either but some of the observations were pertinent.
imacca @1812:
The Coalition don’t have to do anything. If we learnt anything from the 2010 campaign, it’s that the Coalition can say anything they want, predict anything they want, promise anything they want, and they don’t have to justify any of it. They got away with a budget reply that was not only a con job, but that treated the politico-journosphere with utter contempt. They’ve got a leader and treasurer who are unable to talk economics, but that doesn’t matter.
To the question, “how are you going to afford your policy platforms?” they simply answer, “we did it under Howard, so don’t you worry about that.”
They won’t be under any scrutiny, but they’re quite capable of screwing their campaign up anyway. People have noticed that the reality didn’t match the dire predictions over carbon pricing, and they’ve noticed that the approach of the Coalition didn’t alter one little bit as a result. They’ve also noticed that of the fistful of scandals the Coalition whipped up haven’t gone anywhere. Even as it is it’s a disaster for them, and that’s without knowing whether there will be any blowback.
They’re clinging to poll figures now. And they’re starting to close. I don’t know where the media will be once they can no longer say, “the overhwelming likelihood is that the Coalition will be in power by 2014.” They might have to start comparing the parties again.
thirdborn – a shockjock listener? We had a neighbour here late this arvo and he was on about Cubby Station and said the radio up here had been going feral with it all weekend and again today. When I said the Libs weren’t worried about it he said that’s not what he’d heard on the radio and it is all Labor’s doing. Said Abbott won’t sell anything because Barnaby Joyce won’t let him so he’s voting for Abbott even tho he hates him.
We also teased him about his absolute belief in all things printed in The Daily Terror. Said they wouldn’t be allowed to print lies so it’s all true and anyway, the shockjocks back it all up.
What can you say. We’re a very small little cluster here so I wasn’t going to argue too much with a close neighbour. I’ll just have to find time to trawl through some articles and find where they’re wrong and get something to offset them – once the Council elections are out of the way.
Poliquant
My council, Willoughby, has 11 independents plus one green at the moment which makes the exercise of whom to vote for challenging.
Our mayor Pat Reilly is going around again after a major organ transplant which is brave although offset by relying on 12 year old posters when his health was ruder.
The media are like kids with toys – they get sick of their new ones very quickly and keep looking round for yet more novelties. And, quickly tire of these.
The list is almost endless where they jump on a bandwagon and even if it might be going somewhere, they haven’t got the patience or skill to see it through to its destination.
Not exhaustive, but there has been all the stuff with pink batts, fuel watches and BERs. There was all the scandal stuff – Slipper, Ashby, Craig T, there was all the leadership stuff, there was whether the PM should curtsey or not, there was the faux attack in the restaurant. These have been seen by the media as “news”.
Where has the carbon tax/price gone as an issue? The policy that would see the absolute ruination of the country, the destruction of Whyalla and roasts of over “$100 each” according to that idiot Joyce, are all gathering in the dust of fish and chip paper.
Meanwhile, a host of really solid legislation is on the table, there is more to come and the government has been on the front foot now for at least 4-5 weeks.
Suddenly, it is dawning on the media creeps that “the gap is narrowing” and the unthinkable could happen. Not that Labor could win, but that nearly every prediction made by every two-bit media huckster could be wrong.
So many deadlines of ‘she’ll be gorn” have come and gone that it is amazing this motley crew can keep a straight face.
No matter which was the polls go over the next few months, and barring accidents – all the talk is – at least from Labor’s side – “the next election” and this is still quite a way away yet. I noticed the PM said this today when she challenge the pack with either the electorate will decide in favour of what Labor is doing or not “at the next election” or it will not.
Much to the absolute desolation of the conservatives they are no closer to power now than they were in 2007.
In passing, Michelle Grattan’s inability today at the Press Conference to respect the PM by calling her “PM” reflected more on this female version of the picture of Dorian Grey than on the PM
Imacca
That’s not a bad idea actually. I don’t know how cost effective tutors are compared to generally increasing school funding.
BB:
I predict 53-47, with the headline, “Gillard Poll Recovery Stalls”