Seat of the week: Deakin

Update (3/9/12): Essential Research. The weekly Essential Research report has fallen into line with other pollsters in giving Labor its best result since March – up two on the primary vote to 34% and one on two-party preferred to 55-45. The Coalition is down a point to 48%, a result it last recorded in April. The poll has 52% thinking female politicians receive more criticism than men against only 4% less and 40% the same, and very similar results (51%, 6% and 38%) when the subject is narrowed to Julia Gillard specifically. A question on which groups would be better off under Labor or Liberal governments find traditional attitudes to the parties are as strong as ever, with wide gaps according to whether the group could be perceived as disadvantaged (pensioners, unemployed, disabled) or advantaged (high incomes, large corporations, families of private school children). Respondents continue to think it likely that a Coalition government would bring back laws similar to WorkChoices (51% likely against 25% unlikely).

Deakin is centred on the eastern Melbourne suburbs of Blackburn and Nunawading, extending eastwards along the Maroondah Highway to Ringwood and Croydon. At the time of its creation in 1937, it extended far beyond the city limits to Seymour and Mansfield, before gaining its wholly urban orientation in 1969 and assuming roughly its current dimensions when it lost Box Hill in 1977. A trend of increasing Liberal support as the electorate extends eastwards is better explained by diminishing ethnic diversity than by income: in its totality, the electorate is demographically unexceptional on all measures. The redistribution has cut the Labor margin from 2.4% to 0.6% by transferring 18,000 voters in the electorate’s south-western corner, at Blackburn South, Burwood East and Forest Hill, to Chisholm; adding 8000 voters immediately to the east of the aforementioned area, around Vermont South, from Aston; and adding another 10,000 voters around Croydon in the north-east, mostly from Casey but partly from Menzies.

For a seat that has been marginal for most of its history, Deakin has brought Labor remarkably little joy: prior to 2007 their only win was when the Hawke government came to power in 1983, and it was lost again when Hawke went to the polls early in December 1984. The seat presented a picture of electoral stability from 1984 to 2001, when Liberal margins ranged only from 0.7% to 2.5% (although the 1990 redistribution muffled the impact of a 4.3% Liberal swing). Julian Beale held the seat from 1984 until the 1990 election, when he successfully challenged controversial Bruce MP Ken Aldred for preselection after redistribution turned the 1.5% margin into a notional 1.9% margin for Labor. Aldred accepted the consolation prize of Deakin and was able to retain the seat on the back of a sweeping statewide swing to the Liberals. He was in turn unseated for preselection in 1996 by Phillip Barresi, who held the seat throughout the Howard years.

Barresi emerged from the 2004 election with a margin of 5.0%, the biggest the Liberals had known in the seat since 1977. The substantial swing required of Labor at the 2007 election was duly achieved with 1.4% to spare by Mike Symon, whose background as an official with the Left faction Electrical Trades Union had made him a target of Coalition barbs amid controversies surrounding union colleagues Dean Mighell and Kevin Harkins. Symon’s preselection had been achieved through a three-vote win over local general practitioner Peter Lynch, the candidate from 2004, who reportedly won the 50% local vote component before being rebuffed by the state party’s tightly factionalised Public Office Selection Committee. Andrew Crook of Crikey reported that Symon had backing from the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy Right as a quid pro quo for Left support for Peter McMullin’s unsuccessful bid for preselection in Corangamite. Symon was re-elected in 2010 with a 1.0% swing in the face of an attempt by Phillip Barresi to recover his old seat, which was perfectly in line with the statewide result. He was rated by one source as undecided as Kevin Rudd’s challenge to Julia Gillard’s leadership unfolded in February 2012, but soon fell in behind Gillard.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax specialist with Ashurt, the law firm previously known as Blake Dawson. Sukkar emerged a surprise preselection winner over John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. VexNews reported that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes and Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Pesutto was in first place, state government staffer Michelle Frazer was second, and Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to sneak ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have prevailed against Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 comments on “Seat of the week: Deakin”

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  1. Windhover

    ASIO said our involvement in Iraq led us being at increased risk of a terrorist attack. I doubt Afghanistan is any different.

    [Australian interests overseas and foreign interests here were at increased risk of a terrorist attack because of the Iraq war, the nation’s top spy said today.
    Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) director-general Dennis Richardson said the close alliance with the United States and participation in the war on terror contributed to Australia being a terrorist target.]

  2. boerwar poroti

    My brother had to dispose of a thousand sheep during one drought. The council was charging 50c to remove them, which he couldn’t afford – nor did he want to spend that money on bullets. It was done the old fashioned way with a knife. Not pleasant.

    My family is now into aquaculture – a much easier vocation.

  3. Boerwar

    [poroti

    During one drought we would go around all the cows that stayed down in the morning

    We had a sort of cow lifter (fitted over the cow’s hips) fitted to the Grey Fergie]
    We were a very “multicultural” farm with both a red and grey fergie and later a Czech Zetor to boot. A terrible job for you. The only time we had to go round trying to get cows up was during outbreaks of bloat.

  4. My father was proud as punch went he bought home our betamax in 1983.

    By 1990 the only place you could get a video hire was Goulds in Newtown and even then it was only a video teaching the watcher the basics of break dancing.

  5. poroti

    I worked on another farm that had a Zetor. I preferred the Massey-Fergies and the Fergies. It might have been tractorial xenophobia.

  6. [And is Android about to go the way of Betamax and the eight-track cartridge in any case? ]

    I doubt it, Apple won’t licence its OS and not everyone wants an iPad, the other option is Windows 8 for tablets taking over from Andoid – as likely as Tony Abbott answering a difficult question. 😆

  7. Poroti….691 re Afghan war
    __________
    Some in the US are saying that Karzai is trying to get some traction with sectors of the Taliban…in the hope that he can hold on after their transition to power,in the near future

    He could win some points by being hostile to Oz and the US forces as he is now doing
    As the U military historian Anthony Beevor said in Melb yesterday.”..all ventures in Afghanistan end in disaster ”
    More and more dead Aussies boys to come I fear…more graves required Julia.

    This will go on …till Julia gets the “clear out” order from her Masters in Washington
    Pity about our colonial statuus …but it was ever thus!
    except for Whitlam !!!

    Sometimes she sounds similar to McMahon…or perhaps Billy Hughes

  8. [ William Bowe
    Posted Monday, September 3, 2012 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    Can someone give me a rundown of what sucks about PB on Android tablets? ]

    You get the mobile version. The web version is much more readable.

    But the work around is pretty straight forward.

    Occasionally you need to repeat that work around.

    It happens on other sites as well as the tablet looks to load a mobile version where thats available.

  9. [I doubt it, Apple won’t licence its OS and not everyone wants an iPad, the other option is Windows 8 for tablets taking over from Andoid – as likely as Tony Abbott answering a difficult question. :lol:]

    Microsoft has a fantastic history of taking bad computer programs and taking over the world with them … windows 8 could easily be next, in fact it would be more surprising than not if it doesn’t do quite well, the question is how well it does.

  10. boerwar poroti

    After escaping the country life and fleeing to Sydney for some time, my parents are most pleased that I have moved onto a few acres and purchased a little Kubota. I am now tinkering again with my 3 point linkage and front end loader. It’s only a baby, but it is still a tractor! Now I get to talk to my Dad about tractor maintenance and new fangled implements that are now available. My favourite is the grader box that dresses up my gravel driveway nicely.

  11. boerwar poroti

    We predominantly had Chamberlains. I remember our scrub clearing battle machine with water filled overtyres, a home made buck rake on the front and a ripper on the back. This was back in the days of chaining scrub with a ships anchor chain between two dozers.

    Interestingly, my brother now has bigger tractors to launch his aquaculture boats than we ever had on the farm.

  12. William,

    in most browsers on android you don’t get the Avatars but instead just the name of the poster at the bottom of the post. Worse, you don’t get the page numbers at the bottom of the page, so after reading every page you have to scroll all the way to the top again to go to the next page.

    because I love Pollbludger so much I tried about four other browsers and as many readers before I stumbled on to the Opera solution

  13. BW, poroti and thirdborn

    Ah, tractor talk. I thought that dad just named the vehicles.

    Fergie and Alice. It wasn’t till we got a blue fergie and an orange chamberlain, and I queried dad about naming the blue tractor the same as the grey one, and why wasn’t the orange chamberlain the same name as the superseded orange Alice, that I was informed of the trade names – Ferguson and Ellis!

  14. Boerwar

    [poroti

    I worked on another farm that had a Zetor. I preferred the Massey-Fergies and the Fergies. It might have been tractorial xenophobia]
    Maaate can you imagine the “luxury” of power steering,like wot the Zetors had, in early 1970’s NZ ? There there be many hills and rough terrain. So something that reduced the chances of broken fingers as the steering wheel was whipped from your grasp by the terrain was very much appreciated. Oh and forgot to mention we also had an old Fordson Major.

  15. Davidwh

    I wonder if women get more criticism than men is because their more emotional natures is not as well suited to government and leadership?

    IMO men over too emotional to be allowed to lead anything.

    Most of their decisions are driven by emotion instead of reason, and having to mind their delicate emotional states takes up too much of women’s time and energy. Men get stuck in entitlement, defending their patch, sulking, revenge, boosting their flagging egos, chasing sexual conquests, competing with other men’s fragile egos and being threatened by competent women who are the ones really keeping the joint running. As far as I am concerned I wish men would just get out of the way, STFU and put a woolly sock on it.

  16. Diogenes
    I specifically agreed with the simplistic truth of your claim. My point is that, in assessing the long term effect of war in Afghanistan (which I have always supported) there is more to our security than whether we became increased targets because of our involvement. There were/will be security risks by not taking militaristic action. How do you evidence-base a claim of greater-lesser risk? My previous post responding to BW sets out my reasons why I do not find your comment compelling.

  17. deblonay

    [Some in the US are saying that Karzai is trying to get some traction with sectors of the Taliban…in the hope that he can hold on after their transition to power,in the near future]

    IMHO, that means that the same ‘some’ are wRONg. As far as the Taliban and the Haqqani are concerned, Mr Karzai is a goner. The only truly open questions are when and how.

    [He could win some points by being hostile to Oz and the US forces as he is now doing]

    Well, politicians will try to seduce the home crowd. We can’t blame Mr Karzai for that.

    [As the U military historian Anthony Beevor said in Melb yesterday.”..all ventures in Afghanistan end in disaster ”]

    If he had said all ‘Western ventures’ Mr Beevor would have been accurate. If he meant something else, he should have said so.

    [More and more dead Aussies boys to come I fear…more graves required Julia.]

    They are men. And women. Not boys. It is likely that some more of them will die and will have to be buried. Correct. If you expect respect you should address the Prime Minister respectfully.

    [This will go on …till Julia gets the “clear out” order from her Masters in Washington]

    We already have an exit date, so this is a curious utterance.

    [Pity about our colonial statuus]

    You obviously do not understand what a colony is.

    [ …but it was ever thus!

    except for Whitlam !!!]

    This compounds your failure to understand what a colony is.

    [Sometimes she sounds similar to McMahon…or perhaps Billy Hughes]

    I have heard Mr McMahon and, IMHO, Ms Gillard sounds nothing at all like him. I have never heard Mr Hughes speak.

  18. [Mark White ‏@skymarkwhite

    Rebekah Brooks has arrived at Westminster Magistrates Court for her appearance on #phonehacking charges ]

  19. thirdborn314
    [kezza2, bw, poroti

    A true measure of a country person is their ability to start a tractor with a screwdriver]
    In NZ it was said that a cow cockie could fix anything with No.8 fencing wire and bailing twine.

  20. kezza2, bw, poroti

    I learned the value of patience from my father. He got our 4WD International tractor bogged and decided there was nothing local that would get it out. He walked away and left it, deciding to wait till winter was over instead. It was next to the road where the school bus went past for a couple of months, the kids of course gave me heaps every day.

  21. I note with great interest that Pyne does not believe education reform will be a major issue at next years election.

    I think the AEU and other education unions may have a different take on that.

    Any attempt by Abbott and or state premiers to side track this issue will not end well for them.

    Teachers v politicans.

    No contest.

  22. poroti

    Ah, yes, power steering: the Old Grey Fergie was a bit like riding a horse at times. (I sometimes still get a chill up the spine when recalling the time I went round a corner on two wheels…).

    My father-in-law had a Bulldog. One cylinder, if I recall correctly. What a thumper. It ran to diesellous smoke rings when angry.

  23. poroti

    [In NZ it was said that a cow cockie could fix anything with No.8 fencing wire and bailing twine.]

    IMHO, we can trace the beginning of the decline of western civilization with the sad decline in the proportion of cow cockies to the general population.

  24. I am functionally and philosophically opposed to anything Apple. I despise closed systems as a profit model. I’m all for the meritocracy of Open Source and Android, where, if there is something wrong with your system someone in the community is happy to work out a solution for the betterment of all. And then to attract paying punters to your apps based on the quality of your offering, rather than it’s caché. As opposed to Apple, who iron out the bugs and put the fixes into a new model for you to buy.

  25. poroti

    My education in NZ agriculture was from Footrot Flats, so it was quite detailed 🙂 We never used the numbering system for wire grades though, that was far too sophisticated. It was either fencing wire or twitching wire – no need for anything else.

    Twine sounds a bit highbrow too – it was bale string to us.

  26. thirdborn

    [A true measure of a country person is their ability to start a tractor with a screwdriver]

    Too true, not that I’ve done it myself, but watched the menfolk doing it heaps of times.

    But, it’s even better if you know how to stop it, especially when you’re five years old and it suddenly fires into action, takes off, cleans up a row of 44-gallon drums – all in front of visiting local dignitaries. Was banned for years.

  27. Doyley,

    I note with great interest that Pyne does not believe education reform will be a major issue at next years election.

    Well, they do believe that the ‘Carbon Tax’ WILL be the issue du jour at the next election after all. 🙂

  28. In our religion we had a gradation from venial sins, through mortal sins, to cardinal sins: cutting the hay bale strings away from the knot.

  29. Boerwar: yep. And even though I now live on a “residential” block, I brought all my leftover bailing twine with me.

    Just in case 😉

  30. k2

    *laughs*

    I did that on a dozer once. One of my older cuzzes was under it at the time and we were lucky that he was low enough not to get scraped along by the dozer as it took off.

    I learned a considerable amount from his feedback on the episode.

  31. kezza2

    our neighbour had a dozer – one day when putting it in reverse by accident he fell forward and hit his head on the dash knocking himself out. he cleaned up many fences across his property before waking up. he then strapped a pillow to the dash in true country style

    I was driving a big tractor and stone roller before I was old enough to stop it. Dad would get it going, jump off, leave me for hours then come back to get me.

  32. We bought ten bales for our vegie garden earlier in the year. Such pleasure: cutting the strings in the right spot and then hanging them in a bunch, all the knots at the same end, in the garage for when they comes in handy.

    I feel adequately prepared for AGW.

  33. Don’t think this has been posted yet – but it sure mirrors what we have been seeing here with our own media for years –

    [ Why media neutrality over the US presidential election is fuelling lies

    Journalists’ failure to challenge Paul Ryan’s Tampa speech showed the lack of rigour and challenge

    When Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan closed his speech at the Republican National Convention in Tampa last week with the emphatic incantation “let’s get this done!”, the inner pentagram of the Republican party was on its feet cheering its approval.

    Cut back to the CNN studio where anchor Wolf Blitzer noted how enthusiastic the delegates seemed, although he also noted there were one or two items the fact-checkers might want to come back on. He had, he said, made a list of “seven or eight points” that might be contentious, but didn’t mention what they were.

    …A major news network that doesn’t say, even as the ovation continues, “hang on a minute”, is surely falling short. The reluctance of American journalists to tackle the substantive issues raised by politicians, lobbyists, pressure groups and others for fear of being seen as “biased” forms part of a culture of “neutrality” that is essentially driven by economic forces but which is presented as an ethical touchstone.

    …The “neutral” journalist conveys two sides to an argument without forming a judgment. The theory sounds fine until you try it out…

    …The culture that favours “neutrality” over “truthiness” was illustrated by Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin’s now infamous assertion that “legitimate rape” carries almost no risk of pregnancy, when his interviewer Charles Jaco allowed it to slip by unchallenged.

    …The existence of a “fact-checking movement” which runs parallel to, but is not part of, the press shows how disjointed the process of informing the public has become. So much so that a former public editor of the New York Times attracted some ridicule earlier this year when he asked if it was the job of journalists to be “truth vigilantes”

    …If the job of journalism is to strengthen democracy, and if you can’t move in downtown Tampa for accredited press, why did Ryan and his team of speechwriters produce something so wilfully misleading? The ugly truth is, they did it because they could.]

    Full article –

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/sep/02/us-media-neutrality-presidential-elections-lies

  34. [cutting the hay bale strings away from the knot.]
    My OH proved to my mother that he was town reared when he did that. She was shocked, I tells ya, shocked!

  35. Puff

    I had a delightful time as part of a femocracy on local council.

    There were five councillors elected, three women and two men. We were all elected as a team but had a falling out quite early in the piece. It split along gender lines, which initially we thought was coincidental.

    So for the next three years all the decisions were effectively made by the female majority.

    We had all been raised to view women as emotional etc and men as rational (our female mayor was so conservative that she would worry that her husband wouldn’t eat if she was late back from meetings….he was incapable, it seems, of fending off starvation for that long) but we soon realised it was quite the opposite.

    I couldn’t count the number of times one of the men would rise from the discussion table, red in the face, throw his folders down and storm from the room, slamming the door behind him.

    In the early days, one or more of us would run after him, making placating noises, and bring him gently back when he’d calmed down, but after a few months we just shrugged our shoulders and got on with the job.

    After one such session, we looked at each other and one of us said, “They don’t understand. We’ve all raised boys. We’re used to tantrums.”

    Our time in council was later regarded as a bit of a Golden Age but few people outside of council circles realised why we were so productive!

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