The weekly Essential Research result, released yesterday a day later than usual, pooped Labor’s party a little in failing to replicate the shift to them detected by other pollsters over the past fortnight. Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all steady on the primary vote, at 32%, 49% and 10% respectively, although rounding has ticked the two-party result a point back in Labor’s favour to 56-44. The poll also finds 22% expecting the economy to get better over the next year against 45% worse, essentially unchanged on May; 29% and 37% ditto for personal finances; 47% concerned and 37% not concerned about job security, likewise little changed; and 30% thinking they will be better off and 32% worse off under a government led by Tony Abbott. There are also complex questions on the manufacturing sector, and to my mind rather loaded question on public sector job cuts.
We also have an entertaining release from Roy Morgan which replicates Newspoll’s quarterly exercise of breaking down accumulated federal poll results (in this case its face-to-face polling) by state, gender and age. The only substantial differences from Newspoll are that separate results are provided for each month, rather than just a single aggregate for all three, and figures are provided for Tasmania. I gather the monthly sample size would range from around 1100 in the case of New South Wales to barely 100 for Tasmania. Combining the three at least produces a reasonable number for Western Australia and South Australia, while the monthly samples for the larger states are large enough to be useful in their own right.
Tossing aside Morgan’s peculiar respondent-allocated two-party preferred results and using the preference flows of the 2010 election, we see Labor’s two-party result up from 46% in July to 47.5% in August in New South Wales (rounding as Morgan does to half a per cent); from 49.5% to 50% in Victoria; and, interestingly, from 38.5% to 44% in Queensland. Despite the small sample of about 300, the combined three-month result for Tasmania is worth a mention, as I believe it’s the first published result of federal voting intention in Tasmania since the election. It roughly bears out the reported Labor internal polling from Mark Riley of Channel Seven in showing an averaged swing over the period of 14% – enough to cost Labor all four of its seats if uniform, although the margins in Franklin and Lyons would be within the 6% margin of error.
Hopefully Morgan will make a habit of this, as it will at least allow us to see if Morgan’s apparent skew to Labor is more pronounced among particular cohorts, to the extent that this can be accurately measured through comparison with Newspoll. This will require many, many more observations than we have at present, but to get the ball rolling I have looked at the differences between Newspoll’s April-June quarterly result and the June and July figures from Morgan, figuring they should be close enough to comparable due to the poll trend during this period. The only cohorts which buck the trend of Morgan being roughly 2% better for Labor are Victoria, where Morgan produced a quirky 55-45 to the Coalition result in July; Western Australia, where Labor rated 6% higher in Newspoll, which can be written off for the time being given Morgan’s small sample; and among those aged over 50, where Morgan had Labor 4.5% higher.
[Ha! When exactly did Tim Wilson convert to socialism?]
When it comes to market based schemes to mitigate carbon pollution it would seem. 😆
Dearest ShowsOn,
I’ve been up since 5:30am, and have spent most of the day conducting research with small (6- and 7-year-old) children, and intermittently answering online questions from increasingly hysterical 3rd year uni students, whose first assignment was due in today.
I can with more than a little justification claim that (a) I’m too tired, and (b) I have a headache.
😛
[Do you mean you have underground power from the street into your premises but it is above ground in the street?]
Nope. The upper half of the road has underground power. I have it to my home – all 1.3km from road to my home, and a further 1km to outlying sheds and dams.
The lower half of the road is on above ground power, and constantly have blackouts due to tree branches blowing onto lines, esp in winter.
confessions @ 2253
You are indeed fortunate in having such power arrangements.
confessions,
Do forgive me, but I’m getting a bit lost as to your whereabouts. Are you in WA, or north coast NSW?
I’m not wishing to be unduly inquisitive, but as far as I am concerned having some notion of where people live helps me to place them in a political context, if you get my drift.
bemused:
Such benefits come at a price, which I had to pay for, no alternatives allowed.
fiona:
I live in country WA.
Confessions,
Thank you! I am now unconfused.
News 24 reporting another shooting tragedy in the US
@an_news: Government confirms funding for new-look Australia Network service, combining tv, radio and online. Details here: http://t.co/N470iIsI
@enviroblack: If #Arctic sea ice trend continues, 2012 min could be half 2007 level – check NSIDC graph http://t.co/lwdGEzue. You read it right – half!
so, bemused
are you prepared to apologise for blaming Christine Nixon for the 2009 Black Saturday fires – given (1) you were were out of the country yourself, and (2) you weren’t anywhere near the fires (to fight them, yourself); and (3) even if you were here you didn’t live in an area that was affected.
Or, are you going to cling to your mantra that it was just bad judgement on the part of a woman that the fires happened, spread, weren’t contained immediatey, and caused loss of life?
And, also given that Anna Bligh had to return to Qld from Sydney to attend to the unprecedented floods of January 2011, that, shucks, she managed to turn things round, rather than being blamed for the weather?
Or have you whimped off in your usual fashion when called out to justify a misogynist position?
kezza2 @ 2262
No! Simply because I have never blamed her.
Irrelevant.
I have never said anything remotely like that.
Anna Bligh provided an exemplary example of leadership in a crisis. She won wide acclaim for it. Does it cause you a problem?
There is nothing remotely misogynist about my opinions.
Go easy on the sauce. It is not helping you.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Not really what i’d call a good news site guytaur.
Bemused,
Just like all of us, you have some pleasant, and some less than pleasant, qualities.
Speaking for myself, one of your less-pleasant qualities is attributing to those who disagree with you the possibility that they may be over-indulging in alcohol (of course, I may be misunderstanding you: you may truly believe that some people over-indulge in imbibing tomato sauce). Anyway, such comments as:
[Go easy on the sauce.]
are in my opinion unwarranted and, more importantly, plain rude.
btw, bemused,
You aren’t the only offender. I’d suggest to all who use that form of “comeback” to reconsider. It is disrespectful, and ad hominem.
fiona:
I was very reluctant to reveal my whereabouts online because I had an internet stalker, but that person seems to have retreated to nowheresville the past few years and so I feel more confident revealing more about myself.
The internet can be a dastardly place for women in some regards.
fiona @ 2265
If you haven’t noticed, kezza2 goes into attack mode and hurls around all sorts of wild and untrue accusations. I am not the only target, I recall Carey Moore being on the receiving end a few nights ago. So what drives it?
Any rudeness on my part pales into insignificance when compared to what I am repeatedly subjected to. And I don’t just mean by kezza2.
I am not talking about normal differences of opinion, even robust differences. It is stuff that just has no basis in reality.
Denying The Master!
Though almost half a dozen years away,
For Tony Abbott it’s just yesterday,
When all was right in the world because
John Howard was in charge of Oz.
Through the years since then it’s been his mission
To restore the mighty Coalition
To government. He the natural heir,
Has his ministry waiting there.
No learners these, nor needing policies.
Howard’s men, with all the qualities
Required to rule, ready to replace
Gillard’s gang, a basket case.
Honest John and friends all raise their voices,
Now we’ll reinstate Work Choices!
“That was two PMs ago!”
Tony says, aghast. ”No! NO! NO!”
Fiona, I’ve found some images and made a few notes on this!
fiona @ 2266
I only recall using it in relation to 2 posters on here.
It seemed the kindest explanation for their behaviour at the time.
bemused,
[I only recall using it in relation to 2 posters on here.
It seemed the kindest explanation for their behaviour at the time.]
I think that you have used it in relation to several posters, but I definitely don’t have the infinite leisure over the next few weeks to prove my point in this respect!
As for its seeming to be the “kindest explanation” – sorry, it’s probably the most insulting explanation that you could have advanced.
I am not Kezza2’s apologist, or champion, but I do think that much of what she has to say is worth consideration, even when the consequences of that consideration may be personally painful.
fiona @ 2271
You must have a taste for fiction.
confessions,
[The internet can be a dastardly place for women in some regards.]
I haven’t quite had your experience – but I was one of those who took over the reins when Margo Kingston retired from Webdiary, and the amount of shit that I copped both on Webdiary and at other sites was, for this little innocent, mindblowing.
So yes, one of these days we shall meet for a cup of whatever somewhere in a suitably anonymous place in WA 😉
bemused,
[You must have a taste for fiction.]
So glad that you applaud my excellent taste.
Here’s the stats, bemused. for the Beacy area of 1983.
[Belgrave heights / Beaconsfield Upper The fire started at 3.24pm.
People: 21
Area burnt: 9,200 hectares
Houses and other buildings: 238
Cattle / Sheep: 97]
The NNG Fire Brigade lost many people that day too. Some still recovering, bemused.
Not one person blamed a police commissioner from Melbourne for the tragedy.’
If you listened to Russell Broadbent (Lib, Macmillan) in Parliament in 2009, you would have cried too, for his own voluntary effort that day in 1983, and for what he saw, and for the lives he could not save.
That’s friendship across party lines, mate. None of your Roskam jibes.
When the same thing happened in 2009, except the Dandenongs didn’t go up in flames, but other Macmillan electorate towns did, including NNG, Bunypi, Labertouche, etc, and surrounds, Russell Broadbent was there again. Once again he was on the front line, he saw what happened.
And you seek to belittle the tragedy of Black Saturday as a “bad judgement” of a Victorian police commissioner.
Earlier this year I was given the choice of joining the Labor Party for a minimal amount of dollars, and I replied to that person, “I don’t want to be a member of a party that bemused belongs to” – and nothing you have said since convinces me to put my hand in my pocket.
You, and psephos for that matter, are so ultra-right-wing your opinions do not resemble Labor values at all.
[ So yes, one of these days we shall meet for a cup of whatever somewhere in a suitably anonymous place in WA 😉 ]
Sauce? 😉
fiona @ @ 2274
I don’t have any problem having a conversation with people where we may disagree on an issue.
But there are a few here, notably kezza2, with whom it is impossible to engage in any rational discussion.
My 2263 dealt with some of the points where kezza2 was just making stuff up and falsely attributing it to me.
kezza2 @ 2275
Stop verballing me.
Scorpio,
Tea/coffee sauce are the only possible items on the menu.
For now.
No more Kezza/Bemused-related introspection, please
fiona
[you may truly believe that some people over-indulge in imbibing tomato sauce). Anyway, such comments as:
Go easy on the sauce.]
Funny you should mention “sauce” .IMHO a major turning point of KR’s trajectory was when he became an object of mirth (ridicule ?) over his “Fair suck of the sauce bottle.”
[Sauce?]
Mustard.
Bemused,
I will look at it in the morning – and I really shouldn’t have been engaging now, because I am far too tired. However – to everybody – I am not wimping out – but ya gotta know when to fold (for the duration).
Goodnight, everyone.
poroti @ 2281
I had never previously heard that exact expression.
What I was familiar with was “fair shake of the sauce bottle” so I assumed what Kev said was a Qld variant.
I never understood the mirth.
G’night fiona.
Catch you on the flip side as they say. 🙂
Goodnight fiona.
bemused
[Any rudeness on my part pales into insignificance when compared to what I am repeatedly subjected to.]
Meant in the nicest possible way 😉 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8orWom8RxQ
Lynchpin @ 2048 guytaur @2002 re Alan Jones “women are wrecking the joint”
I never let a chance go by to sink the boot into Alan Jones so here we go…..
Wednesday 13th Oct 2010 Alan Jones said:
“We are being ruled by a liar, a communist a Stalinist. There used to be a glass ceiling in Australia but the social engineers have destroyed it. Now the rubbish rises to the top and we are governed by incompetents. Everywhere you look there are women in charge, Gillard hopeless, Moore useless, Commander-in-Chief Bryce incompetent, Brigadier Dane hopeless”
Takes your breath away doesn’t it? This is the same bozo who complains that manners are disappearing and foreigners don’t understand our values.
Re Chrisine Nixon and Black Saturday
_________________________
I remember that on the day before Black Saturday ..Friday…..Brumby on the evening news warned all listerners of the great dangers presented by a week of great heat..and the months of drought we had endured.
He warned people to keep away from places which were fire prone like the Ocean Road and the Hills..guite right to do so.
I spent the day in great anxiety as our neighbours back onto an overgrown creek/gully which was bone dry… and due to the weather and partly due to Council neglect…after several attempts to get them to act ,,,,,itbwas a fire hazard
So we were alert and ready in case of local fires.
I liked Christine Nixon and thought she did her job with compassion and skill….battling against a police bad boys club which resented her from day One and had a dark history of curious events
Having said that…and not wanting to be seen ever to agree with GG as that only encourages the poisonous language he always uses “in debate” (and remembering that he once called BEMUSED “a piece of excrement”…on this site),,,…..
….I must say that I thought on the day of the disaster Nixon showed a lack of judgement in not being stationed at her headquarters all day…meeting her biographer/having dinner etc…were actions which were a gift for her vicious enemies in the Police force
and seemed to show a lack of perception.
The disaster would have unfolded no matter ……..
…and everyone from the Premier had given warnings of the calamity which might come,and by early AM it was evident to me and everyone I knew in our street that we faced a terrible day of heat…in the midst of a brittle dry day
So she did err…and gave her enemies a stick to beat her..with .sad because she had much to offer…as did Overland who was then faced with defeat from the same cabel of enemies …like some Greek tragedy
bemused
A fcuk up there by me. It was “shake”. But the reason for his ridicule is just as valid.
[
One sees politicians these days switching between the two extremes of the Aussie accent to fit the circumstance. Nowadays, the ever populist Rudd recently has been caught out. He got a serious mocking from the media for his “fair shake of the sauce bottle” experiment where he dipped into some ocker sounds dropping his usual diplomatic neutral tones. When Rudd, who really has a general Australian accent sitting fairly comfortably between the accents of Menzies and Hawke, tries to move his accent and language away from who he is, to try and appeal to some in the community, the Australian public is pretty quick to sniff it out. We know Rudd isn’t just another bloke at the pub: ]
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/trying-to-be-a-duck-but-turning-out-to-be-a-turkey-20091023-hbnj.html
poroti @ 2287
I am not asking for sympathy, but if I am receiving it, I will respond.
poroti @ 2290
I think you were right the first time.
[You, and psephos for that matter, are so ultra-right-wing your opinions do not resemble Labor values at all.]
hear, hear.
they do have ‘labor’ values – DLP that is. or maybe League of Rights /One-nation.
Magnitude 7.9 earthquake 93km east of Sulangan Philippines.
That’s a fairly big one.
sustainable future @ 2293
Thank you for exposing yourself as an idiot.
I am often in dispute with Psephos for a start so lumping us together is problematic.
Secondly, on most policy issues I would be more aligned with the left of the ALP.
Although I often disagree with Psephos, I don’t feel the urge you seem to feel to label people the way you have.
On old post but re 2192 and undergrounding. Where we are now we have underground fibre and power. No problems. Last place the possums climbed up the telephone wires and chewed the casing so they had to be replaced. Lightning hit the street transformer outside my house and fried my computer plus smashed a couple of windows with flying bits of ceramic casings.
I have always admired Christine Nixon.
As I have said on this site, years ago.
Ms Nixon is an exemplar, from her early days in a tough world of policing, of challenging the status quo, corruption within the force. She necessarily gained enmity. Not one of the boys.
Ms Nixon is to be applauded for her brilliant, I hesitate to say career, for it was not that, it was a fantastic dedication to the values she treasured and upheld.
This nonsense of having dinner with her friends. She had discharged her duties.
And quite properly handed over. By the book. No one individual is permitted to be the lone arbiter, under the rules.
Neither she nor anyone could know the devastation to follow.
Nixon and Overland were both decent cops in my book. Both had values they upheld. Not much more that one could or should expect from people in their position.
crikey whitey @ 2297
Oh FFS, anyone with half a brain knew by the afternoon that it was a disaster. Sure, no-one knew the exact course of the fires and just how bad it would get, but it was obviously going to be grim.
This is just a cop out.
A year shy of an election I am feeling good about a Gillard led Gov heading into the election.