Essential Research and Morgan quarterly breakdowns

The weekly Essential Research result, released yesterday a day later than usual, pooped Labor’s party a little in failing to replicate the shift to them detected by other pollsters over the past fortnight. Labor, the Coalition and the Greens are all steady on the primary vote, at 32%, 49% and 10% respectively, although rounding has ticked the two-party result a point back in Labor’s favour to 56-44. The poll also finds 22% expecting the economy to get better over the next year against 45% worse, essentially unchanged on May; 29% and 37% ditto for personal finances; 47% concerned and 37% not concerned about job security, likewise little changed; and 30% thinking they will be better off and 32% worse off under a government led by Tony Abbott. There are also complex questions on the manufacturing sector, and to my mind rather loaded question on public sector job cuts.

We also have an entertaining release from Roy Morgan which replicates Newspoll’s quarterly exercise of breaking down accumulated federal poll results (in this case its face-to-face polling) by state, gender and age. The only substantial differences from Newspoll are that separate results are provided for each month, rather than just a single aggregate for all three, and figures are provided for Tasmania. I gather the monthly sample size would range from around 1100 in the case of New South Wales to barely 100 for Tasmania. Combining the three at least produces a reasonable number for Western Australia and South Australia, while the monthly samples for the larger states are large enough to be useful in their own right.

Tossing aside Morgan’s peculiar respondent-allocated two-party preferred results and using the preference flows of the 2010 election, we see Labor’s two-party result up from 46% in July to 47.5% in August in New South Wales (rounding as Morgan does to half a per cent); from 49.5% to 50% in Victoria; and, interestingly, from 38.5% to 44% in Queensland. Despite the small sample of about 300, the combined three-month result for Tasmania is worth a mention, as I believe it’s the first published result of federal voting intention in Tasmania since the election. It roughly bears out the reported Labor internal polling from Mark Riley of Channel Seven in showing an averaged swing over the period of 14% – enough to cost Labor all four of its seats if uniform, although the margins in Franklin and Lyons would be within the 6% margin of error.

Hopefully Morgan will make a habit of this, as it will at least allow us to see if Morgan’s apparent skew to Labor is more pronounced among particular cohorts, to the extent that this can be accurately measured through comparison with Newspoll. This will require many, many more observations than we have at present, but to get the ball rolling I have looked at the differences between Newspoll’s April-June quarterly result and the June and July figures from Morgan, figuring they should be close enough to comparable due to the poll trend during this period. The only cohorts which buck the trend of Morgan being roughly 2% better for Labor are Victoria, where Morgan produced a quirky 55-45 to the Coalition result in July; Western Australia, where Labor rated 6% higher in Newspoll, which can be written off for the time being given Morgan’s small sample; and among those aged over 50, where Morgan had Labor 4.5% higher.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,327 comments on “Essential Research and Morgan quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. Thanks for that ref, Schnappi.

    Good piece from Coorey, summing it up well. Labor will have to endure a few days of Abbott on ‘failure’ and the MSM on ‘backflipping’, but it is a sensible trading system to join. But they are on a winner in the long term as others join the party.

    Talking, of which, William is right that Essential has rained on the ‘Labor Recovery’ meme parade a bit. The recovery is very modest, and may take a little while to seep through, I hope. But normally, you’d surely expect Essential to pick it up earlier, even allowing for the ‘rolling over’ effect.

    Maybe another week before we know the trend.

  2. Tasmania

    Over the last decade there seems to have been an accelerating vibe that Tasmania cannot make it on its own. This seems to have increased as WA have agitated about ‘their’ share of GST.

    The failure of the pulp mill project (particularly as there seems no other project to replace it), the constant pressure on the loggers by the Greens and the failure of TT-Line on the Devonport-Sydney route are all things that I can imagine have made locals doubt the future.

    So they may consider a change is worth ago – I wouldn’t be surprised if the attitude is the ALP (fed & state) aren’t offering much in the ‘things can be done’ stakes. If so the Greens may feel the ‘lash’ here as well as ‘blockers to getting things done’.

  3. Carney’s article is actually one of his better efforts for a while.

    [Abbott is, like the PM, personally unpopular. But he doesn’t have the trust problem that Gillard has.]

    His ending reflects the feelings of several Liberal voters I know – it’s not so much that JG can’t be trusted but that Abbott can argue that and that ‘none of them can be trusted anyway’. And that he’s an idiot but if he’s still leader at the next election they’ll vote for him.

    Go figure.

    Read more:

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Extremely thin pickings this morning so I’ll try the cartoons.
    Ron Tandberg on the Kerr revelation.

    Alan Moir reflects upon 1969 and kids’ awareness.

    David Pope still sparkling form. Look at his depiction of Bowen and Carr.

    And another Ron Tandberg effort on Abbott consigning the Rodent to the dustbin of history.
    David Rowe has Bill Shorten in his sights this morning.

  5. And from the Land of the Free – (just for you, Shiny Shoes Hartcher!)

    The Repug state governors are in a class all of their own.
    Abbott would be proud of them.
    And another Repug gets all tangled up over rape.
    Hardly a ringing endorsement for Romney.
    [“This is the most inauthentic candidacy I’ve ever seen, I must say. We used to talk about the woodenness of Al Gore. I mean, Al Gore looks like a stand-up comedian compared to this guy.”]
    If ever there was a case for involuntary euthanasia Pat Robertson is it!
    I tell you, the guy is MAD!
    The Repugs are on the nose on women’s issues.
    A classic Democratic Party billboard ad campaign!
    Ah, so this is what “flexibility” means.

  6. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Gawd. Are the CofE Fairfax trying to alienate more of the faithful?

    1. Is Sydney’s Anglican Archbishop trying to prove he’s even more reactionary that Cardinal Pell? Men and women are different, and so should be their marriage vows And they wonder why Australia is turning atheist at a rate of knots!

    2. I’m not sure which is the earlier version of the Australia Institute’s latest effort to improve Abbott’s poll figures by creating a new scare campaign (never mind that implementation doesn’t happen until 2015; 2 years AFTER the next election); this from Fairfax Carbon changes will hit budget surplus or this from the ABC Scrapping carbon floor raises budget uncertainty

    Try this difference of views between the AI doomsayer:

    [“While there might be some cost to the budget, that cost to the budget means that the generosity of our compensation to households and industry is far greater than has previously been estimated,” he said.

    Mr Denniss says Treasury’s forecasts were always too optimistic, given the low global price of carbon.

    “Everything that’s happening in the world carbon market suggests it is likely to stay that way,” he said.

    “It won’t affect next year’s budget, but it would be an optimistic treasurer that thinks this won’t cost any money.]

    and Minister Combet’s statement of budget reality:

    [Climate Change Minister Greg Combet argues it is a minor legislative change that will not impact on the household compensation the Government has distributed.

    *“It is three years away and the Treasury modelling is something that we stand by,” he said.

    “This announcement therefore does not come with any revision of our fiscal position.

    “We stand by the budget as it was announced in May.”]
    *My emphasis

    Where is the AI’s analysis of the eminent sanity of meshing Australia’s carbon credits with those of the prototype ETS scheme – Eurozone + UK’s – that’s been around for almost a decade? Where’s the reasoned assessment of our being part of an internationally consistent Global scheme which will embrace the world’s largest nations, India & China?

    Of course the AI couldn’t be positive, could it! Nor could their ABC or Fairfax! An honest assessment would only detract from Abbott’s Liberals’ chances at the 2013 election – not something either conservatives, or reporters who’ve spent the last 2 years trying to talk Abbott into the Lodge, want under any circumstances.

    Jesus wept!

  7. shaun Carney is not the smartest reporter around if he think abbott doesnt have a trust problem

    Majority of voters are calling Abbott a liar , he will not be getting rid of the carbon price

  8. Carney:

    [One part of {Abbott’s} approach that he won’t be changing is his regular dismissal of the Prime Minister as untrustworthy, lacking in integrity and legitimacy.

    Abbott fights ugly; that’s a given and it’s generally put down to his past as a young amateur boxer.

    But his portrayal of Gillard as shifty is also underpinned by reams of Liberal Party focus group research, which finds that many swinging voters have a deep distrust of Gillard.

    Labor knows this. Its research produces similar findings. This is why the recent increases in the government’s primary support in the Nielsen poll (32 per cent) and Newspoll (35 per cent) are problematic if they’re to be seen as signs of a genuine Labor revival. Abbott is, like the PM, personally unpopular.

    But he doesn’t have the trust problem that Gillard has. ]

    Carney pretends to be aghast at Abbott’s Perpetual Campaign, but I’m not sure he is.

    Like any hack, he takes a win, whether by fair means or foul, fighting dirty or fighting clean. Doesn’t matter to Shaun. A win’s a win (or what looks like a win’s a win).

    He reckons he can tell the difference between Gillard’s unpopularity and Abbott’s.

    Gillard is unpopular because she can’t be trusted. Abbott is unpopular, well, because he’s unpopular, that’s all. Shaun says Abbott doesn’t “have the trust problem that Gillard has”. How does Carney know this?

    Are the famous focus groups telling him? Does Shaun hear voices? Do punters in focus group say, “I don’t trust Gillard, but I DO trust Abbott, policies or not, backflips or not, self-confessed liar or not. It’s just that I don’t like him.”

    I doubt it very much. Shaun is reading too much into the augur’s chicken giblets. He’s trying too hard.

    The bottom line with Abbott is that he’s never been popular. Gillard has. She can recover that. Abbott can’t.

    Gillard is a serious politician. She goes to work each day, reads her briefs, deals in reality, solves problems, makes decisions, sorts out bottlenecks and the odd crisis.

    Abbott is crackpot with a sandwich board, telling us the end of the World is nigh and that questions must be answered, without having a clue what the questions are. The only reason he’s gotten anywhere in the past few years is that he’s had almost a free run with the media, not because of any substantial contribution he’s made to reasoned debate. At least Shaun got that bit right.

    As long as apologies are being made for him – “Oppositions oppose”, “But he’s not Prime Minister”, “He’s a boxer and fights dirty” etc. – by not only The Media (as Shaun would call it, meaning “That media, over there…”) and the likes of Shaun himself who entertain a patrician’s mild distaste for Abbott’s grubby tactically-based campaign, Abbott will prosper.

    They really seem to believe that an Abbott Prime Ministership will somehow be reined in by the wiser heads in the Liberal backroom telling him what’s acceptable to do in office, and what’s not. These same wiser heads elected him as leader and owe their chance of office to Abbott. I wouldn’t rely on them to come good once the gravy train leaves Central Station.

    Shaun is also correct in his observation that we’ve never seen anything like the “Abbott Phenomenon” before in Australian politics: someone so cock-sure of his invulnerability to media scrutiny that he can walk away from press conferences, get through a stunt a day, run his party entirely on wild dreams of going back nearly ten years in political history, say he’s for something one day and against it the next, and lie, just lie his way into office with exaggerated claims and false logic.

    Doesn’t Carney get it? Abbott is only as successful as he is because Shaun and his pals allow him to be. They’re besotted with him. They know he’s a fool and a snake oil salesman, but they can’t help being fascinated by him.

    Abbott, the antithesis of the hard-working, serious Gillard, has become 100% celebrity, whose every action is news, whether he’s bashing terminally ill people in wheelchairs like Bernie Banton, massaging aboriginal egos, fighting bushfires or playing verbal gymnastics. He is a product of today’s Reality TV approach to everything, a blank canvas on which you can paint anything you like, and Tony will oblige with a pose.

    But he is not real. He is a product of the media’s urgent need for gossip, scandal and movement… any movement. He pretends to say something serious. The media pretends to take him seriously. He says the opposite the next day. The media pretends there’s no contradiction.

    “That was then this is now”. There was no yesterday.

    As long as Shaun and other, more respectable journalists like George Megalogenis sit on the sidelines writing up the demise of decency and truth in politics as if they have nothing to do with it at all, the freaks like Abbott will prosper.

    In Abbott World no-one ever changes their mind or goes back on a promise, even when it’d be crazy not to. To stick to your guns, no matter what, is ideological fanaticism, pure and simple. That’s reason enough to worry about Abbott.

    The misogyny and the rudeness, the testosterone and the viciousness are part of it but, over and above all, Abbott has the wild look of a man possessed. Shaun, the patrician, is unfortunately caught up in the circus and can’t see that Rome is decaying before his tired eyes. Pass the rose water. There’s a stench in coming up from the street below. No Shaun, it’s coming from your own cesspit.

    We need sensible, fallible government that can admit its mistakes, learn from them, and muddle through, not the bread and circuses of a fanatic, living from day to day on lies and more lies.

    Today’s column, like all of Carney’s columns is the product of a tortured soul, continually writing and rewriting justifications for the unjustifiable, reasons for the unreasonable. Right there on the page we see Carney trying, yet again, to exorcise the demons he knows have possessed him and that he can’t shake off. His mental anguish is palpable behind the calm, well wrought lines he writes and the educated turn of phrase.

    It’s time for Carney to open his eyes, see Abbott for the crackpot he is, and start critiquing from there. A victory under Abbott will be worse than a defeat. His party, by deliberate design, has no policies or program other than a return to the dream once that was Australia.

    Those days are gone. Shaun should fess up about his misplaced fascination for Abbott’s carnival performances and, as an allegedly “serious” journalist, go to work, making amends for his flirtations. That’s the only way those voices inside his head will go away.

  9. More on theme of state government cuts:
    [AT LEAST 80,000 NSW public sector workers are set to lose salary benefits and conditions under sweeping cuts to their awards.

    The O’Farrell government yesterday confirmed it had applied to the NSW Industrial Commission this week to change 98 awards for public sector workers, including 1000 nurses who assist people with disabilities and those in aged-care facilities.

    Clerical staff, librarians, parks and gardens staff, school administration assistants, regulatory inspectors and legal officers are also among those set to lose their entitlement to long-held conditions, including an annual leave loading of 17.5 per cent.

    The government also plans to cut penalties for all shift workers and allowances for staff stationed in remote areas.

    Some sick leave entitlements, flexible work arrangements and parental leave would also be affected by the changes]

    Read more:

  10. When Abbott was saying a few weeks back that there will be no Carbon Tax under a Government he leads, this is exactly what he would do.
    I suggested a few threads back that the Gillard Government do just what they are doing now, that is bring forward the ETS.
    This should also prove, to the general populace that there never was a Carbon Tax.

  11. How ironic that out of Gillard and Abbott, Coorey says its Gillard that has the trust problem. Gillard broke her promise on the CT. How many times has Abbott been caught out lying?

    Again the MSM write as if they have nothing to do with it.

    Had to switch off Hunt; its do sad that a man who devoted his research to climate change has been reduced to Abbott-lite; carping, negative, sloganeering. The opposition have nothing positive to offer. And are completely incapable of changing strategy

  12. Musiekemp, its a shame that voters in general dont realise that the CT is a temporary arrangement; would blunt Abbott’s attacks, and soften the perception of the broken promise


    smanian Opposition has been forced to delete an online advertisement that smears the minority government, just three days after its much-hyped launch.

    The video used ABC News vision and selective quotes from critics of minority government, including one from former Premier David Bartlett saying doing the deal with the Greens is like doing a deal with the devil.

    The three-minute ad was released at the party’s state conference at the weekend.

    The ABC says it wrote to the Liberal Party on Friday pointing out its vision was used without permission.

    The letter asked for the ABC vision to be removed from the video.

    ALP state secretary John Dowling described the ad as grubby politics but Opposition Leader Will Hodgman has defended the video.

  14. [Carney pretends to be aghast at Abbott’s Perpetual Campaign, but I’m not sure he is.

    Like any hack, he takes a win, whether by fair means or foul, fighting dirty or fighting clean. Doesn’t matter to Shaun. A win’s a win (or what looks like a win’s a win).]

    I’ve always regarded Carney as one of those (more than a few Aussie MSM) journos who share Abbott’s “spiritual mentor” and that mentor’s political creed.

  15. BB the MSM love Abbott because he is EASY. Easy to report, no editing required, stunt and slogans rolled out.

    He also has a good story; the joker that happened on the leadership.

    Dont have to wade through complex issues or policy. A lazy journalist’s dream.

  16. morning all

    The main news in Melbourne is the ongoing dispute between the CFMEU and Grollo.

    Daniel Grollo told the media this morning that the police would not attempt to break the picket line because it would be too dangerous.

    [FOR at least a decade, construction boss Daniel Grollo and burly unionist John Setka have been smashing heads.
    It has been both political and personal.

    Read more:

  17. [Laocoon
    Posted Wednesday, August 29, 2012 at 7:22 am | Permalink
    More on theme of state government cuts:]
    What is happening? I don’t see the reason for this action except Coalition Ideologies.
    They really want Aussies to go down the USA’s path of poverty.Lets hope the Public Servants don’t just sit back and accept these actions.

  18. SK posted

    Alexander White ‏@alexanderwhite

    Greg Hunt is a liar. Falsely and vexatiously saying everyone in the world is running away from carbon pricing.

    Like the – how many billion Chinese? – embracing it? And here’s poor old me thinking Oz is pretty much dependent for its current prosperity on China’s hunger for minerals; so it will want to ensure those imports meet Global ETS requirements before they arrive in Chinese ports!

  19. OK, this is seriously vomit inducing:

    [I can understand that. Individualism leaves us with little reason to join our life to that of someone else. Apart from that, for many marriage has become an arena of suffering, exploitation and disappointment. We choose to bypass it.]

    That’s right. It’s this nasty thinking for ourselves thing that’s upsetting everything. When the church was in total control, and we just did what the priest told us to, the world was filled with sunlight and lollipops….and all marriages were joyous.

    [Many of our young people want to be ”wives and husbands” rather than simply ”partners” and in their weddings they come as ”bride and groom” rather than simply two individuals. They believe that expressing these differences, including different responsibilities, makes for a better marriage.]

    Maybe so. Do we have any stats on whether their marriages last any better than those who don’t ‘express these differences’?

    Note we haven’t heard from the Anglican church who these couples demanding for the word ‘submit’ are. In 35 years, one priest says the only bride who asked to ‘submit’ was 60; another priest says he has never married anyone using those words.

    [Her ”submission” is her voluntary acceptance of this pattern of living together, her glad recognition that this is what he intends to bring to the marriage and that it is for her good, his good and the good of children born to them. She is going accept him as a man who has chosen the self-discipline and commitment of marriage for her sake and for their children.]

    OK, this was when I really start feeling a bit bilious.

    Followed by:

    [At a time when women rightly complain that they cannot get men to commit, here is a pattern which demands real commitment all the way.]

    See, it’s all the woman’s fault. If she’d just demanded that the man made a BIGGER commitment, he wouldn’t have run away.

    [Referring to ”partners” rather than husband or wife gives no special challenge to the man to demonstrate the masculine qualities which he brings to a marriage.]

    Right. So if he gets married without asking his woman to submit, he feels all wimpy. And that’s why men are avoiding marriage…

    [When a husband promises to love his wife as Christ loved the church and give himself up for her, he is declaring his intention to be a man of strength and self-control for her benefit and for the benefit of any children born to them. Such qualities, properly exercised in the spirit of self-sacrifice, enhance the feminine and personal qualities of his wife.]

    [The rush to embrace libertarian and individualistic philosophy means that we miss some of the key relational elements of being human, elements which make for our wellbeing and happiness.]

    Oh. That rush which has taken about three centuries (slow down, people).

    I’m glad it’s a rational thing, and not just a faith based view….

    Read more:

  20. I am watching the Rethug convention on APAC. They are doing the roll call of states.

    Romney needed 1144 votes, but has so far accummulated 2061. Of course, no surprise there.

  21. [Majority of voters are calling Abbott a liar , he will not be getting rid of the carbon price]

    He can’t, and Coalition supporters who are exporters – miners, cattlemen & women, grain growers etc – know that!

    If you’re an exporter and your state/ nation does not have a CP/ EST, you will have to pay the CP at the port in any state with a CP/EST (inc China, UK, Eurozone etc) in which your product is off-loaded. Given that bribery is a way of life in more than a few of those ports, best you pay the CP in Oz!

    Extend CP/ ETS to states/ nations which have already agreed to UN forward targets, and you could, in the near future, be facing international embargoes on your product.

    That’s CP/ EST reality! The Opposition knows that; yet continues to lie about it.

  22. Morning all. Kate Lundy is now in London for the Paralympics, but I can’t find any date/time for her humiliating row down Eton Dorney.

    Leigh now says she’d really rather be a dinosaur than a cow after all, specifically a T-Rex.

    TLM @1829 (prev. thread)
    [Tony Abbott’s useless unless he’s got something to oppose or be negative about, the man is incapable of any positivity.
    Abbott gets away with high disapproval ratings because Gillard is equally disliked.]

    Even when sticking it to Abbott there has to be an anti-Gillard angle.

  23. I still don’t get why the government apparently thinks it doesn’t need to explain the difference between an ets and a ‘tax’ and a price.
    Gillard’s percieved trustworthiness problem is mostly due to the carbon tax thing.

    Has anyone got a link for the full quote of Gillard saying ‘there’ll be no carbon….etc etc BUT with the rest of it…’but let me be clear, I am determined to put a price on carbon’ ?
    Anyone got one?

  24. OK. Anyone spot the glaring contradiction here?

    [Opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull has promised a coalition government will review the government’s decision to ban Chinese equipment maker Huawei from the national broadband network roll out.]

    Right. That would be the same Coalition whose leader says that Chinese investment should be limited because of national security concerns?

    So why was Huawei blocked?

    [Huawei said earlier this year the Attorney General’s department said it was banned from supplying NBN Co with equipment because of national security concerns.]

    Read more:

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