8.38pm. Clare Martin confident about Stuart, for some reason. They are currently a handful of votes ahead.
8.32pm. By my count, the CLP will have four Aboriginal members compared with one for Labor, which will become either 5-1 or 4-2 depending on who wins Stuart. White Labor members in remote seats seem to have done better than Aboriginal ones.
8.21pm. The booth result I didn’t believe earlier, Maningrida in Arafura, looks like it was bona fide: 44.3% for the Greens, 31.3% for First Nations, 17.7% for Labor and 7.1% for the CLP, utterly unlike the remainder of the electorate.
8.19pm. Total vote result is 50.0% for the CLP, up 4.6%, and 37.0% for Labor, down 6.2%.
8.15pm. Clare Martin not conceding Arafura, but 108 sounds a pretty big lead to me with only 500 outstanding.
8.06pm. ABC computer has changed Stuart from “CLP gain” to “ALP ahead” – by 0.2%.
8.00pm. ABC computer calling Stuart for the CLP, but evidently it shouldn’t be.
7.55pm. Antony says it’s lineball in Stuart, which has been back and forth all evening.
7.50pm. In one hit, the ABC computer has called Arafura, Arnhem and Daly. By now there’s enough results in that I don’t see reason to doubt it. So even if Labor does win Sanderson, which I wouldn’t put money on, they can’t win from here.
7.43pm. So Labor behind in Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and CLP-held Sanderson, and needing to win three of the four to be a chance of governing with the support of Gerry Wood.
7.42pm. The second mobile booth from Arafura has a lot more votes than the first, but it’s slightly favoured the CLP. One batch of pre-polls has seen Labor scratch back 29 votes with four more to come, but it’s unlikely to be enough.
7.41pm. In fact, Arnhem looks very good for the CLP to me: only pre-polls and postals outstanding, and the CLP leads 1164-957.
7.40pm. The overall picture though is clear: Labor has held up well in Darwin, but is likely to lose office from a backlash among Aboriginal voters.
7.38pm. ABC computer no longer calling Arafura for the CLP, which is to say it’s no longer calling anything as a definitive gain one way or the other. However, there’s new worrying news for Labor in that the CLP is now said to be ahead in Arnhem.
7.37pm. Pre-polls, postals and one mobile booth still to report from Daly. CLP leads 1136-975.
7.36pm. I would suggest though the ABC computer is being generous to Labor in not calling Daly for the CLP.
7.35pm. The ABC computer is now only giving Arafura away, but as I pointed to earlier, it now has “CLP ahead” in Sanderson.
7.34pm. It was presumed Johnston would be the crucible, but I haven’t even had occasion to mention it yet. Labor has won big, with a double-digit swing.
7.33pm. The remote seat where Labor are in trouble other than Arafura, Stuart, is evidently doing a lot more business on mobile booths. However, the mobile booth that’s reported gave a big win to the CLP’s Bess Price.
7.31pm. The two Arafura booths I just mentioned are in: the raw CLP lead is now down to 5.8%, 972 to 769. Clare Martin talking of the CLP being 70-something votes ahead. That might be chased down on mobile votes, but the two outstanding mobile booths will have to produce a lot more votes than the first one for that to be possible.
7.30pm. First mobile booth in Arafura suggest these are dealing with tiny numbers of voters, so are unlikely to offer salvation for Labor. They will need big results in the two outstanding booths of Gunbalanya and Jabiru. Labor now also in big trouble in Stuart.
7.29pm. Still awaiting Anula 2PP result from Sanderson, but the primary vote result suggests the swing to Labor here is 4.9%, against a CLP margin of 5.2%.
7.22pm. Berry Springs booth now in from Daly and has swung solidly to the CLP, which looks like it sets the seal on their win then. So I’d say Labor definitely needs to win Sanderson and turn the tide in Arafura.
7.21pm. Jabiru booth in Arafura is a much better result for Dean Rioli than the first two that came in, and the 2PP hasn’t been added there. I’m not sure if this was factored in when they were just discussing this on the ABC.
7.19pm. Anula booth has now reported in Sanderson, recording a very slight swing to Labor: I expect that when two-party results are added it will bring the overall Labor swing down a little and move the swing back, just, into the CLP column.
7.16pm. ABC computer now has Nelson as retained by Gerry Wood.
7.15pm. As Antony keeps noting, little swing in Darwin, but Labor in big trouble in Daly, and possibly also in Arafura, either of which will lose Labor the election unless they can gain Sanderson.
7.14pm. Also one booth to go from Sanderson, which Labor badly needs to win. The booth is Anula: Labor got 45.6% there last time.
7.12pm. Berry Springs booth from Daly still outstanding: a lot will hinge on it. Labor got 52.7% 2PP there in 2008.
7.11pm. ABC computer calling Barkly for Labor; Stuart back up in the air.
7.08pm. Actually, Stuart looks like a three-cornered contest, with First Nations candidate Maurie Japarta Ryan scoring some very strong booth results. If he ends in the final count, who knows what would happen.
7.07pm. No trouble for Dave Tollner in Fong Lim.
7.06pm. Fannie Bay retained as expected by Labor with swing of 8%.
7.05pm. ABC computer calling Stuart a Labor retain, which would be a relief for them given the trend in remote areas.
7.04pm. On the other hand, it’s lineball in the CLP-held seat of Sanderson.
7.03pm. More plausible figures suggest trouble for Labor in Daly: Antony calculates 8.4% swing, against 5.8% margin.
7.02pm. Obvious error also remains in the Arafura result: one booth has the Greens on 44% and First Nations on 31%, the other far more plausibly has it at 1.5% and 0.8%.
6.59pm. Clearly an error in the NTEC’s result for Blain: 823 primary votes recorded for Moulden Park booth, but only 47 for the 2CP. Labor is credited with 63.8% of the 2PP, but CLP has 56.1% of the primary vote.
6.58pm. ABC calling Arafura a gain for the CLP, which I wouldn’t credit quite yet; Blain a gain for the ALP, which Antony says is definitely wrong; and Nelson a CLP gain, also based on numbers I don’t believe. Expect to see some corrections through from the NTEC.
6.56pm. Some very funny results come up, understandably flummoxing Antony. In Nelson for instance, we’ve got a pre-poll result in with the CLP on 127 votes and Gerry Wood in 37 – surely not possible.
6.55pm. The one booth in from Ararufa, for example, may be an area of family connections for the CLP candidate. Other booths might reverse the trend.
6.54pm. Doesn’t look like Alison Anderson will be troubled in Namatjira – and Labor are definitely looking at a big swing in remote areas. I wouldn’t definitely say it will cost them seats yet until we have more figures in.
6.52pm. ABC computer calls Arafura for CLP on the back of an apparent big swing in the new Nguiu booth, but personally I’d be careful with these early projections from remote seat, where procedures are very different this time which would present methodological challenges in projecting results.
6.51pm. Remote seat of Nhulunbuy records double-digit swing against Labor, but not enough to endanger them there.
6.50pm. No boilover for Ross Bohlin in Drysdale: seat to comfortably stay with the CLP. Big swing to CLP in another Palmerston seat, Drysdale, as I would have expected due to sophomore surge.
6.46pm. Another possible early indication of trouble for Labor in remote areas from Barkly – the first booth has been won by the CLP 72 to 69. Once again, it’s a booth that wasn’t in use in 2008, so no swing can be given.
6.43pm. ABC computer calculates CLP ahead in Arnhem, but this can’t be easy to calculate given the move from mobile to fixed-booth polling in remote areas at this election.
6.42pm. First small booth in David Tollner’s seat of Fong Lim swings 4% to him.
6.40pm. Antony doesn’t beleive Maningrida booth result from Arafura which has Greens first, First Nations second, Labor third and CLP distant fourth.
6.39pm. All three fixed booths from Arnhem have now reported and Labor leads 345 to 234. Presumably mobile booths will widen that, remembering this seat is so safe for Labor the CLP didn’t contest it in 2008.
6.37pm. CLP wins Adelaide River booth in Daly 92 votes to 58, which I’m guessing tells you this is a pastoral region booth that might not tell you much about the overall result. It hasn’t been a booth in the past, so again no swing can be determined.
6.35pm. Two booths in from safe Labor remote seat of Arnhem: Labor leads 345 to 234. Since this seat was uncontested in 2008, no swing can be determined.
6pm. Polls have closed in the Northern Territory election. I gather that the first results will be in from pre-polls in very short order, and there being a number of very small booths around the place we should also get trickles of hard-to-interpret early results. However, the substantial Darwin booths that are likely to determine the result will probably not start coming in for another hour or so.
Anyway, now Hendo is free to run for Solomon, which I think he’d win in a canter.
Just by the way, if you are interested in booth by booth figures you can find them through http://notes.nt.gov.au/nteo/Electorl.nsf/NT2012/Results?OpenDocument
Were the CLP still running with a policy of scrapping open road speed limits?
Is that likely to be carried out?
Clearly deserves to be rewarded with a place in ClubFed for his stellar work of going from 19 seats to 8 in the space of 5 years
Good tipping Psephos
I will stick with Peter Brent thanks as he actually called it right!
[Clearly deserves to be rewarded with a place in ClubFed for his stellar work of going from 19 seats to 8 in the space of 5 years.]
That would be a matter for the voters of Solomon to judge. Having met Natasha Griggs I’ve no doubt that she’s eminently beatable.
[Good tipping Psephos]
Psephology is an inexact science. 🙂
One last thought before I go to the pub: this is a fair bit like the 1999 Vic election (with swapped parties, obviously). Kennett’s Libs held up fine in Melbourne, but lost their majority by losing a heap of regional seats. Three years later Melbourne came to the party and the Libs got wiped out for a decade, and some of those regional seats are still held by Labor even after that govt ended. If the CLP manage to hold the historically Labor seats they’ve just won, Labor could be looking at disaster in 2016.
Also, Terry Mills can go full bore Campbell Newman if he wants, sacking public servants. He doesn’t need to worry about retaining Darwin seats the way Newman needs to worry about the few dozen Brisbane seats he won. (There’s a strange observation… the CLP are about to form govt while holding a minority of Darwin seats. Has that ever happened before, for either party?)
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The Kennet government had a history of cutting public services and was seen as Melbourne centric by the rest of the state and the ALP was seen, during its time in office as being the public service fixers who were friendly to regional areas. If the CLP fix the things that upset people in the remote NT then they may well keep these votes but I would not bank on it due to their history and political tendencies. The Darwin seats may well fall to the CLP if there, is no massive sacking campaign.
[I will stick with Peter Brent thanks as he actually called it right!]
Peter did very well and did so going on very general principles rather than any attempt to crystal-ball individual seats on the basis of extremely limited data and noises on the ground.
I thought Henderson’s concession speech was good if long. Mills’ victory speech, on the other hand … “we’re all in this together” ad nauseum … aargh!
Senior Public Servants above a $110k salary are in the CLP gun sights mostly to reduce government debt. Given this is 13% of the employed workforce we have a built in change in demographics likely for future By and full Territory elections if they head elsewhere post redundancy.