8.38pm. Clare Martin confident about Stuart, for some reason. They are currently a handful of votes ahead.
8.32pm. By my count, the CLP will have four Aboriginal members compared with one for Labor, which will become either 5-1 or 4-2 depending on who wins Stuart. White Labor members in remote seats seem to have done better than Aboriginal ones.
8.21pm. The booth result I didn’t believe earlier, Maningrida in Arafura, looks like it was bona fide: 44.3% for the Greens, 31.3% for First Nations, 17.7% for Labor and 7.1% for the CLP, utterly unlike the remainder of the electorate.
8.19pm. Total vote result is 50.0% for the CLP, up 4.6%, and 37.0% for Labor, down 6.2%.
8.15pm. Clare Martin not conceding Arafura, but 108 sounds a pretty big lead to me with only 500 outstanding.
8.06pm. ABC computer has changed Stuart from “CLP gain” to “ALP ahead” – by 0.2%.
8.00pm. ABC computer calling Stuart for the CLP, but evidently it shouldn’t be.
7.55pm. Antony says it’s lineball in Stuart, which has been back and forth all evening.
7.50pm. In one hit, the ABC computer has called Arafura, Arnhem and Daly. By now there’s enough results in that I don’t see reason to doubt it. So even if Labor does win Sanderson, which I wouldn’t put money on, they can’t win from here.
7.43pm. So Labor behind in Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and CLP-held Sanderson, and needing to win three of the four to be a chance of governing with the support of Gerry Wood.
7.42pm. The second mobile booth from Arafura has a lot more votes than the first, but it’s slightly favoured the CLP. One batch of pre-polls has seen Labor scratch back 29 votes with four more to come, but it’s unlikely to be enough.
7.41pm. In fact, Arnhem looks very good for the CLP to me: only pre-polls and postals outstanding, and the CLP leads 1164-957.
7.40pm. The overall picture though is clear: Labor has held up well in Darwin, but is likely to lose office from a backlash among Aboriginal voters.
7.38pm. ABC computer no longer calling Arafura for the CLP, which is to say it’s no longer calling anything as a definitive gain one way or the other. However, there’s new worrying news for Labor in that the CLP is now said to be ahead in Arnhem.
7.37pm. Pre-polls, postals and one mobile booth still to report from Daly. CLP leads 1136-975.
7.36pm. I would suggest though the ABC computer is being generous to Labor in not calling Daly for the CLP.
7.35pm. The ABC computer is now only giving Arafura away, but as I pointed to earlier, it now has “CLP ahead” in Sanderson.
7.34pm. It was presumed Johnston would be the crucible, but I haven’t even had occasion to mention it yet. Labor has won big, with a double-digit swing.
7.33pm. The remote seat where Labor are in trouble other than Arafura, Stuart, is evidently doing a lot more business on mobile booths. However, the mobile booth that’s reported gave a big win to the CLP’s Bess Price.
7.31pm. The two Arafura booths I just mentioned are in: the raw CLP lead is now down to 5.8%, 972 to 769. Clare Martin talking of the CLP being 70-something votes ahead. That might be chased down on mobile votes, but the two outstanding mobile booths will have to produce a lot more votes than the first one for that to be possible.
7.30pm. First mobile booth in Arafura suggest these are dealing with tiny numbers of voters, so are unlikely to offer salvation for Labor. They will need big results in the two outstanding booths of Gunbalanya and Jabiru. Labor now also in big trouble in Stuart.
7.29pm. Still awaiting Anula 2PP result from Sanderson, but the primary vote result suggests the swing to Labor here is 4.9%, against a CLP margin of 5.2%.
7.22pm. Berry Springs booth now in from Daly and has swung solidly to the CLP, which looks like it sets the seal on their win then. So I’d say Labor definitely needs to win Sanderson and turn the tide in Arafura.
7.21pm. Jabiru booth in Arafura is a much better result for Dean Rioli than the first two that came in, and the 2PP hasn’t been added there. I’m not sure if this was factored in when they were just discussing this on the ABC.
7.19pm. Anula booth has now reported in Sanderson, recording a very slight swing to Labor: I expect that when two-party results are added it will bring the overall Labor swing down a little and move the swing back, just, into the CLP column.
7.16pm. ABC computer now has Nelson as retained by Gerry Wood.
7.15pm. As Antony keeps noting, little swing in Darwin, but Labor in big trouble in Daly, and possibly also in Arafura, either of which will lose Labor the election unless they can gain Sanderson.
7.14pm. Also one booth to go from Sanderson, which Labor badly needs to win. The booth is Anula: Labor got 45.6% there last time.
7.12pm. Berry Springs booth from Daly still outstanding: a lot will hinge on it. Labor got 52.7% 2PP there in 2008.
7.11pm. ABC computer calling Barkly for Labor; Stuart back up in the air.
7.08pm. Actually, Stuart looks like a three-cornered contest, with First Nations candidate Maurie Japarta Ryan scoring some very strong booth results. If he ends in the final count, who knows what would happen.
7.07pm. No trouble for Dave Tollner in Fong Lim.
7.06pm. Fannie Bay retained as expected by Labor with swing of 8%.
7.05pm. ABC computer calling Stuart a Labor retain, which would be a relief for them given the trend in remote areas.
7.04pm. On the other hand, it’s lineball in the CLP-held seat of Sanderson.
7.03pm. More plausible figures suggest trouble for Labor in Daly: Antony calculates 8.4% swing, against 5.8% margin.
7.02pm. Obvious error also remains in the Arafura result: one booth has the Greens on 44% and First Nations on 31%, the other far more plausibly has it at 1.5% and 0.8%.
6.59pm. Clearly an error in the NTEC’s result for Blain: 823 primary votes recorded for Moulden Park booth, but only 47 for the 2CP. Labor is credited with 63.8% of the 2PP, but CLP has 56.1% of the primary vote.
6.58pm. ABC calling Arafura a gain for the CLP, which I wouldn’t credit quite yet; Blain a gain for the ALP, which Antony says is definitely wrong; and Nelson a CLP gain, also based on numbers I don’t believe. Expect to see some corrections through from the NTEC.
6.56pm. Some very funny results come up, understandably flummoxing Antony. In Nelson for instance, we’ve got a pre-poll result in with the CLP on 127 votes and Gerry Wood in 37 – surely not possible.
6.55pm. The one booth in from Ararufa, for example, may be an area of family connections for the CLP candidate. Other booths might reverse the trend.
6.54pm. Doesn’t look like Alison Anderson will be troubled in Namatjira – and Labor are definitely looking at a big swing in remote areas. I wouldn’t definitely say it will cost them seats yet until we have more figures in.
6.52pm. ABC computer calls Arafura for CLP on the back of an apparent big swing in the new Nguiu booth, but personally I’d be careful with these early projections from remote seat, where procedures are very different this time which would present methodological challenges in projecting results.
6.51pm. Remote seat of Nhulunbuy records double-digit swing against Labor, but not enough to endanger them there.
6.50pm. No boilover for Ross Bohlin in Drysdale: seat to comfortably stay with the CLP. Big swing to CLP in another Palmerston seat, Drysdale, as I would have expected due to sophomore surge.
6.46pm. Another possible early indication of trouble for Labor in remote areas from Barkly – the first booth has been won by the CLP 72 to 69. Once again, it’s a booth that wasn’t in use in 2008, so no swing can be given.
6.43pm. ABC computer calculates CLP ahead in Arnhem, but this can’t be easy to calculate given the move from mobile to fixed-booth polling in remote areas at this election.
6.42pm. First small booth in David Tollner’s seat of Fong Lim swings 4% to him.
6.40pm. Antony doesn’t beleive Maningrida booth result from Arafura which has Greens first, First Nations second, Labor third and CLP distant fourth.
6.39pm. All three fixed booths from Arnhem have now reported and Labor leads 345 to 234. Presumably mobile booths will widen that, remembering this seat is so safe for Labor the CLP didn’t contest it in 2008.
6.37pm. CLP wins Adelaide River booth in Daly 92 votes to 58, which I’m guessing tells you this is a pastoral region booth that might not tell you much about the overall result. It hasn’t been a booth in the past, so again no swing can be determined.
6.35pm. Two booths in from safe Labor remote seat of Arnhem: Labor leads 345 to 234. Since this seat was uncontested in 2008, no swing can be determined.
6pm. Polls have closed in the Northern Territory election. I gather that the first results will be in from pre-polls in very short order, and there being a number of very small booths around the place we should also get trickles of hard-to-interpret early results. However, the substantial Darwin booths that are likely to determine the result will probably not start coming in for another hour or so.
Sky News exit poll shows majority of people think Labor will win the election #ntvotes
And the reason they think that is that they’ve seen the campaign and they know how much better Henderson is than what’s-his-name, and that will also influence how they vote.
psephos:
Do you think the lack of Labor branding on signs was a good move?
Personally I always think this is a poor tactic, although I guess there is some kind of research that supports it. But then I also note that Bruce Hawker was involved in the campaign and I think he is far from a strategical genius.
Any concrete results from the Sky News poll?
Does the NT really need 25 pollies for a 200,000 population and then you have the local councillors on top of that
Page for Braiting is showing partial results from last time.
[Do you think the lack of Labor branding on signs was a good move?]
When you have a popular leader and an unpopular party, you promote the leader and not the party. Everyone does it. I assume it works to some extent or they wouldn’t bother.
[Does the NT really need 25 pollies for a 200,000 population.]
The alternative would be to put it back under direct Commonwealth rule, which means taxpayers in the rest of Australia would have to foot the bill for its administration. I’d rather the territories accepted responsibility for their own government.
A smaller parliament would likely lack the critical mass for a functional parliament.
You only need 13 seats to gain government. If there was a smaller parliament you’d be able to hold cabinet meetings in a phone box.
ACT has 17 with a 370,000 population
Norfolk Island has 2,300 people and a nine-member Parliament.
http://www.nt.gov.au/ntec/ seems to work well as a link because it gives a single page with a scroll of seats across the top rather than having to open 25 tabs.
How is First Nations doing?
[Does the NT really need 25 pollies for a 200,000 population and then you have the local councillors on top of that]
25 sounds reasonable to me.
I don’t really agree with limiting power to the few just to make some very minor spending cuts.
Antony will be smashing things soon ……………
Is anyone else having issues with ABC24’s live stream? My video stream is very “staccato” – it’s unwatchable. Just wondering if it is my network or a wider issue.
DR
I have 2 x PCs trying to view it and both are having issues, BTW.
[Just wondering if it is my network or a wider issue.]
Mine’s OK. I am on ADSL2+.
Seems to be constantly buffering.
The ABC shows 10 seats to the CLP and 3 to the ALP.
Oh dear, those swings look scary.
And the ABC computer is going trippy. It was predicting Labor gaining Terry Mills’s seat at one point.
I’m on ADSL2+ too….. must be my LAN. Thanks.
D
The ABC website shows CLP has won 14 seats.
So they have won?
[The ABC website shows CLP has won 14 seats.
So they have won?]
ABC computer calling seats prematurely willy-nilly like it always does.
Needs major reprogramming. It’s a joke.
The CLP might be winning, but not because the computer says so.
ABC website formatting has gone whacky
ALP looks like it is getting smashed in the bush, status-quo in Darwin itself
I’d say that the CLP will win but maybe only by a seat. However, they may be in a great position to increase their margin next election.
Be feeling quietly confident about now if I was a CLP supporter.
I hope they do a Newman.
The CLP has polled 55% in Wadeye, of all places. What do Indigenous voters think they will get from a CLP government?
which seat will change hands???
11&12
The ACT is a lot smaller and there have been attempts to increase the size. i believe that the main sticking point at the moment is that the Greens want 21 seats (3×7) and the ALP want 25 (5×5) and so nothing can pass and be sent to the Territories Minister for approval.
Norfolk Island is very small.
[The CLP has polled 55% in Wadeye, of all places. What do Indigenous voters think they will get from a CLP government?]
Something new? Could be desperation…
Psephos,
Sometimes the only cure for CLP government is a good dose of CLP government.
Where’s the results from Nightcliff?
Labor looks to have lost Daly and not to have won Sanderson, so we are cooked. Plus we may still lose Arafura. So much for the much-touted “Rioli factor.”
If the CLP can retain its foothold in the bush in the next election and move into Darwin, 2016 could be a landslide for them…
Yes, Labor is behind in Stuart and will need First Nation preferences. It seems quite clear that it’s Indigenous voters who have put Labor out. I hope they enjoy the consequences.
ALP gain a 38% swing against Anderson, massive
lol
[If the CLP can retain its foothold in the bush in the next election]
That is going to be an interesting juggling act to watch.
[ALP gain a 38% swing against Anderson, massive
lol]
Universally applying that swing, I project 25 seats for Labor! 😉
Sorry, cut the quote off…
[If the CLP can retain its foothold in the bush in the next election and move into Darwin,]
@ABCElections: .@AntonyGreenABC has called the election for the CLP. #ntvotes
[If the CLP can retain its foothold in the bush in the next election and move into Darwin, 2016 could be a landslide for them…]
And if Labor can win all the seats next time, it will a landslide for them. Making predictions on election night about the next election is not a very useful exercise.
Where is Antony seeing two-party figures? Or are these ABC projections?
Psephos
ABC is showing CLP 13 seats ALP 8 Other 1 in doubt 2
[ 7.34pm. It was presumed Johnston would be the crucible, but I haven’t even had occasion to mention it yet. Labor has won big, with a double-digit swing. ]
-10.8 on primaries and +14.4 on 2pp? (From ABC site.) Something screwy’s going on there.
It wasn’t a prediction, it was pointing out a potential long-term consequence. Get off of your high horse.
Sorry revision now showing CLP 14