GhostWhoVotes tweets that a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland gives the Coalition a two-party lead of 57-43 – a seven-point turn-around in Labor’s favour since the last such poll three months ago, suggesting a swing to the Coalition/LNP of only 2% since the 2010 election. Leaving aside the Labor-skewed Morgan face-to-face series, the last time a published poll of federal voting intention showed a swing that low was the Newspoll of May 27-29, 2011, which had the Coalition leading 52-48 nationally. The only Queensland seat Labor would lose on a uniform swing of that size would be Moreton, held by Graham Perrett on a margin of 1.1% (the present numbers in Queensland are 21 seats for the LNP, eight for Labor and one for Bob Katter). The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up seven on the previous poll) and 49% for the Coalition (down seven). The poll also finds 52% detecting little or no impact of the carbon tax on their household budget, against 15% for “major impact” and 27% for “minor impact”. New asylum seeker laws are rated “strong” by 26% of respondents, “inhumane” by 18% and “too little too late” by 51%. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, and has a margin of error of about 3.5%.
UPDATE: The Sunday Mail today has further results from the poll which show “two out of three people believe the Premier is going too far with his proposal to cut 20,000 public sector jobs”, together with figures showing widespared feelings of job insecurity, particularly among government employees.
Further evidence of the Queensland elastic snapping back was provided earlier this week by ReachTEL, which conducted automated phone polls of three seats out of the many which the LNP won from Labor at the state election. These showed Labor leading in two of the seats and lineball in the third. My own calculation of two-party preferred results based on preferences from the previous election had Labor leading 60-40 in Sandgate, a swing to the of 13%, and 51-49 in Brisbane Central, a swing to them of 6%. I had the LNP 51-49 ahead in Towsville, but Possum has it at 51-49 in Labor’s favour – no doubt having used a formula that took better account of the decline of the Katter’s Australian Party vote. The poll also found Campbell Newman’s personal ratings in Sandgate and Townsville in Tony Abbott if not Julia Gillard territory, though he scored better in Brisbane Central. There was similarly a strong view he had not kept his promises in Sandgate and Townville, but an even divide of opinion in Brisbane Central. The samples on each poll were around 400, for margins of error approaching 5%.
And not forgetting …
Seat of the week: Lingiari
I’ve previously been limited my Seat of the Week choices to seats where both parties have preselected candidates, but am making an exception today in a spirit of keeping things topical. The federal seat of Lingiari covers the entirety of the Northern Territory outside of Darwin, which for the most part will play second fiddle during tomorrow night’s election count: whereas Darwin’s suburbs teem with marginal seats, the remainder is largely divided between Country Liberal Party strongholds in Alice Springs and Labor strongholds elsewhere. However, the tea-leaves of the regional and remote results will be read carefully for federal implications given Labor member Warren Snowdon’s narrow margin in Lingiari, and recent rumours of Labor internal polling showing him headed for defeat.
The Northern Territory was first granted its own seat in the federal parliament in 1922, but its member did not attain full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the seat had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period of Labor control. The Country Liberal Party was established in 1978 as a local alliance between coalition parties to contest elections in the the newly established Northern Territory parliament, and Grant Tambling succeeded Calder as its members upon the latter’s retirement at the 1980 election. Tambling was unseated by Labor’s John Reeves in 1983, and returned as a Senator four years later. The seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered it for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.
The population of the Northern Territory is such that it consistently hovers between an entitlement of one or two seats according to the formula used to allocate seats to the states and territories. It first rose above the line prior to the 2001 election, resulting in the territory’s division between Solomon, covering Darwin, and Lingiari, which in accommodating the entire remainder of the territory is the second largest electorate in geographical terms after Durack in Western Australia. However, when the Australian Electoral Commission next conducted its mid-term determination of seat entitlements the Northern Territory had fallen 295 residents short of the number required to its second seat. With Labor and the Coalition both convinced they could win both seats at the 2004 election, the parliament proved amenable to arguments that the determination left the territory under-represented, and passed legislation to reinstate the second seat. Solomon and Lingiari accordingly have the lowest enrolments of any seats in Australia at around 62,000, compared with a national average of about 95,000 (which together with the extensive use of mobile booths explains the scarcity of numbers on the 2010 results map at the bottom of the post).
Lingiari is notable for having by far the highest proportion of indigenous persons of any seat in the country, at 41.8% against 15.7% for second-placed Durack. Relatedly, and depressingly, it also has the lowest median age of any electorate. The support of Aboriginal voters has given Labor enough of a base to have kept the seat in their hands, despite CLP strength in pastoral areas and the urban centres of Alice Springs, Katherine and Tennant Creek. Labor’s margins have progressed over four elections from 5.3% to 7.7% to 11.2% to 3.7%. The diversity of the electorate’s components can make for enormously complicated election results, as demonstrated by local swings over the last three elections. In the wake of the Howard government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities before the 2007 election, mobile polling booths swung 8.4% to Warren Snowdon off an already very high base of 78.7%. However, it was a very different story in 2010, when these booths swung to the CLP by no less than 28.1% – a result variously put down to the troubled Strategic Indigenous Housing and Infrastructure Program, the actions of newly merged regional councils, and the ongoing suspension of the Racial Discrimination Act by the new Labor government. Remarkably, the swings in Alice Springs were in the opposite direction, with Snowdon down 2.6% in 2007 and up 8.4% in 2010. In Tennant Creek the Labor vote fell from 58.7% to 34.2% while the Greens rocketed from 4.6% to 33.7%, a result credited to the Muckaty Station nuclear waste dump proposal.
Snowdon is a figure in Labor’s Left faction, and has held junior ministry positions since the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He had earlier been a parliamentary secretary during his first stint as a member from 1990 to 1996, again reaching the position in opposition after the 2001 election. After the 2007 election win he received a substantial promotion to the junior defence science and personnel ministry, which Glenn Milne in The Australian credited to his close association with Julia Gillard. Snowdon was demoted to indigenous health, rural and regional services after Joel Fitzgibbon resigned as Defence Minister in June 2009, which Philip Dorling of the Canberra Times put down to incoming Defence Minister John Faulkner’s “longstanding lack of enthusiasm” for him, “and perhaps more specific concerns about the contribution Mr Snowdon’s office may have made in the past week to Fitzgibbon’s downfall”. He recovered defence science after the 2010 election and further gained veterans affairs, while dropping rural and regional services.
[Yeah, she was bookkeeper for a school canteen.]
Yes, and she has a Ph.D. in economics.
SO
[???]
???
don,
Life is far too short to read your boring crap!
Just because you have multiple personalities doesn’t mean that they are separate entities 😀
If you lot reckon it’s tough going being a Carlton supporter, try being a South Sydney Rabbitohs supporter for a few…long…years. 😀
[don,
Life is far too short to read your boring crap!]
???
Well, the Liberals think Judith Sloane and Henry Ergas are eminently qualified Economists. 🙂
Diogs,
Showsy is stuck on stupid, again.
[Diogs,
Showsy is stuck on stupid, again.]
???
Can you argue with a laptop ?
Garbage in garbage / Garbage out.
don
Did you see the latest research saying we don’t have any Neanderthal DNA in us.
I wish they’d make their minds up. 😉
bemused,
I’ll have you know it’s all your fault that I got so upset this afternoon that I went away and dusted all my nick knacks, polished my mirror, and rearranged the family photos!
Grey, you don’t escape responsibility for all that either!
Now everyone, let’s get back to situation normal= nick knacks gathering dust.
😉
momma,
Isn’t that a rolling stone that gathers no dust.
So, does The Ghost Who Votes usually drop by on a Sunday night with a Nielsen?
[Did you see the latest research saying we don’t have any Neanderthal DNA in us.
I wish they’d make their minds up.]
Did they get a swab from Larry Pickering?
Greensborough Growler,
These days, in common with the septagenarian misfits, I am more Strolling Bones than Rolling Stone. 🙂
GG
I remember when the British racing car driver was having a very lean patch there was a newspaper headline “A ROLLING MOSS GATHERS NO STIRLING”
BK
😆
Yep this year will be so near yet so far, lose to Melbourne week one, then hit a resurgent RAIDERS who have just thrashed the Cronulla Boats. 🙂
My dad, who is 120, told me yesterday that he got a call from Newspoll YESTERDAY.
I guess that would have to be a state poll?
Who knew?
http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/tapwater-sold-as-bottled-water-gets-180000-per-cent-mark-up/story-e6frfmd9-1226458017974
Bemused
Describing Donnelly as a Liberal is being kind to him.
His views on education have been, for years, pages from the Tea Party.
Why he continues to get any air time at all is a total mystery to me as he has been totally discredited for years.
The ABC, for some perverse reason, wheels him out from time to time.
Those interested in Rugby League:
What about the Wests Tigers?
Here is a team playing to cement their place in the final series.
Here is a team that started the season kickoff as favourites to win the grand final.
What happens, they get smashed by a team third last on the ladder and out of contention.
So what does it mean?
It means nothing if they beat the Storm next week, they need the Broncos to lost to the Panthers to make the eight.
Well done Tigers – top season!
momma,
I bet you were a real Honky Tonk Woman in your day.
my say,
[ Before the rudd people arrived this was a interesting fun place.
Before the grammar police arrived it was too
Now the the perfect people have arrived ]
All through 2007 and 2008 virtually everyone here was part of the Rudd fan club. Except for Glen, Dovif, LTEP, Candles & one or two others.
There was much glee & celebration when the hated Rodent was vanquished and thrown out of Kiribilly.
The Rudd people as you call them have always been here, the anti-Rudd people have mostly all been here also.
This is where the difficulty in reconciling the two comes in. PB has always, and I mean always had its moments of joy shared between the participants and has had its moments when flame war was imminent and thankfully controlled by the Host.
Who would want that job, I ask each and every one of you?
How can it be done in a transparent and impartial manner, fair to all?
You done well William and long may you continue to moderate this fine blog.
The proof of that was the response to Rummel last weekend. Superb is an understatement.
Well done William, well done Crikey.
Laptops. I well remember my first experience . I was at my daughters about 4 years ago and asked her to hand me pass me the newspaper. Got told how old fashioned I was and that I needed to get with the times and fast. Handed me the Laptop and said ” Here use this”
Effing fly never knew what hit it!!
Centre
A has been coach in Tim Sheens is the answer. A more self-righteous excuse merchant is not known in the game.
Normally blames the refs for all losses. As for his “I did not see Benji Marshall’s elbow to the head” incident – sure mate!
Well, here you go:
[Sharman holds a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) in anthropology from Monash University, a Master of Arts in sociology from La Trobe University, a Graduate Diploma in Tertiary Education. She also holds a Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) degree in economics and business from Monash University.]
http://www.sharmanstone.com/AboutSharman/Biography.aspx
[So that means I’ll be able to start 8 arguments at once.]
Oh dear God!!
Shows, nice!
But no SSD? How do you expect your arguments to instantly launch if there is no SSD??
Sharon Stone got it right about Tony Abbott.
Stone became quite quotable as a result of several interviews; she is known for having said “In this town, if you have a vagina and a point of view, you’re considered a threat” and “Women can fake orgasms, but men can fake whole relationships.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharon_Stone
fiona @ 1678
And she still joined the conservative side? After all that education? Jeez!
Why does the term professional academic keep screaming in my brain?
PoK
Boom Tish 🙂
Shellbell do you really want to know something? (RacK off Rudd) NO lol.
Had the Tigers scored first in the opening 10 minutes of the game, they probably would have won the game.
That’s the fine line between winning and losing.
The Roosters got away with constantly attacking the head of the ball carrier thus causing mistakes and loss of posession for the Tigers. They easily got the penalties and infringed the 10 metres well.
Good luck to the Roosters.
GG,
C@tmomma is a cool cat and must have been really hep.
Centre
For all their talent that have made the semis once in the last 7 years
lizzie @ 1682,
Considering that her undergraduate degree would probably have been funded by a Commonwealth Scholarship, and her Masters and PhD by Commmonwealth-funded scholarships and/or have been HECS-free, it most certainly is a worry.
Entitlement much?
rua @ 1683,
[Why does the term professional academic keep screaming in my brain?]
Entitlement much, encore une fois…
In breaking news:
http://www.maitlandmercury.com.au/story/160164/dungog-rate-payer-brings-dead-wallaby-to-meeting/
Centre
The Roosters were palying for “Mini” who should have ended the season as a spectator.
Shows On
[My dad, who is 120, told me yesterday that he got a call from Newspoll YESTERDAY.
I guess that would have to be a state poll?]
What a Great Big LIAR you are, Shows on!!
As my MiL, if she survives, will be 196 early next January, her descendants are I are very interested in Oz’s Centenarians and super-Centenarians.
In Australia, there are only 2 living persons 110 yo or older, (Super Centenarians); they’re both women, and both in their 112th year. The oldest Aussie, Christina Cook (Victoria) died at 114 years 148 days on 22 May 2002.
Indeed, fewer than a handful of Aussie men have reached 110 years. The vast majority of Aussies confirmed as super-centenarians are women.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_supercentenarians
OOps … will be 106 NOT 196 next January
Duck,
They wrote a song about our momma.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoDS1lWdpjw
Dio@1661:
Yeah, I follow that very closely, as you obviously realise, I have an archaeological site.
I’m waiting for the other scientists with skin in the game to tell this lot that they are dreamin’ !!
Archaeologists are the nastiest lot for …almost… politely telling the other members of the clan that they are stupid idiots that I’ve ever come across.
PB is politeness personified in comparison.
Shellbell, I think they have been a little overrated although they have experienced a lot of injuries this year.
Still, they have lost games they should have won and are now finished for the season.
Shes got a nasty attitude as well.
For those who wish to gloat or mourn:
Strange computer problem there ?