GhostWhoVotes tweets that a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland gives the Coalition a two-party lead of 57-43 – a seven-point turn-around in Labor’s favour since the last such poll three months ago, suggesting a swing to the Coalition/LNP of only 2% since the 2010 election. Leaving aside the Labor-skewed Morgan face-to-face series, the last time a published poll of federal voting intention showed a swing that low was the Newspoll of May 27-29, 2011, which had the Coalition leading 52-48 nationally. The only Queensland seat Labor would lose on a uniform swing of that size would be Moreton, held by Graham Perrett on a margin of 1.1% (the present numbers in Queensland are 21 seats for the LNP, eight for Labor and one for Bob Katter). The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up seven on the previous poll) and 49% for the Coalition (down seven). The poll also finds 52% detecting little or no impact of the carbon tax on their household budget, against 15% for “major impact” and 27% for “minor impact”. New asylum seeker laws are rated “strong” by 26% of respondents, “inhumane” by 18% and “too little too late” by 51%. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, and has a margin of error of about 3.5%.
UPDATE: The Sunday Mail today has further results from the poll which show “two out of three people believe the Premier is going too far with his proposal to cut 20,000 public sector jobs”, together with figures showing widespared feelings of job insecurity, particularly among government employees.
Further evidence of the Queensland elastic snapping back was provided earlier this week by ReachTEL, which conducted automated phone polls of three seats out of the many which the LNP won from Labor at the state election. These showed Labor leading in two of the seats and lineball in the third. My own calculation of two-party preferred results based on preferences from the previous election had Labor leading 60-40 in Sandgate, a swing to the of 13%, and 51-49 in Brisbane Central, a swing to them of 6%. I had the LNP 51-49 ahead in Towsville, but Possum has it at 51-49 in Labor’s favour – no doubt having used a formula that took better account of the decline of the Katter’s Australian Party vote. The poll also found Campbell Newman’s personal ratings in Sandgate and Townsville in Tony Abbott if not Julia Gillard territory, though he scored better in Brisbane Central. There was similarly a strong view he had not kept his promises in Sandgate and Townville, but an even divide of opinion in Brisbane Central. The samples on each poll were around 400, for margins of error approaching 5%.
And not forgetting …
Seat of the week: Lingiari
I’ve previously been limited my Seat of the Week choices to seats where both parties have preselected candidates, but am making an exception today in a spirit of keeping things topical. The federal seat of Lingiari covers the entirety of the Northern Territory outside of Darwin, which for the most part will play second fiddle during tomorrow night’s election count: whereas Darwin’s suburbs teem with marginal seats, the remainder is largely divided between Country Liberal Party strongholds in Alice Springs and Labor strongholds elsewhere. However, the tea-leaves of the regional and remote results will be read carefully for federal implications given Labor member Warren Snowdon’s narrow margin in Lingiari, and recent rumours of Labor internal polling showing him headed for defeat.
The Northern Territory was first granted its own seat in the federal parliament in 1922, but its member did not attain full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the seat had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period of Labor control. The Country Liberal Party was established in 1978 as a local alliance between coalition parties to contest elections in the the newly established Northern Territory parliament, and Grant Tambling succeeded Calder as its members upon the latter’s retirement at the 1980 election. Tambling was unseated by Labor’s John Reeves in 1983, and returned as a Senator four years later. The seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered it for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.
The population of the Northern Territory is such that it consistently hovers between an entitlement of one or two seats according to the formula used to allocate seats to the states and territories. It first rose above the line prior to the 2001 election, resulting in the territory’s division between Solomon, covering Darwin, and Lingiari, which in accommodating the entire remainder of the territory is the second largest electorate in geographical terms after Durack in Western Australia. However, when the Australian Electoral Commission next conducted its mid-term determination of seat entitlements the Northern Territory had fallen 295 residents short of the number required to its second seat. With Labor and the Coalition both convinced they could win both seats at the 2004 election, the parliament proved amenable to arguments that the determination left the territory under-represented, and passed legislation to reinstate the second seat. Solomon and Lingiari accordingly have the lowest enrolments of any seats in Australia at around 62,000, compared with a national average of about 95,000 (which together with the extensive use of mobile booths explains the scarcity of numbers on the 2010 results map at the bottom of the post).
Lingiari is notable for having by far the highest proportion of indigenous persons of any seat in the country, at 41.8% against 15.7% for second-placed Durack. Relatedly, and depressingly, it also has the lowest median age of any electorate. The support of Aboriginal voters has given Labor enough of a base to have kept the seat in their hands, despite CLP strength in pastoral areas and the urban centres of Alice Springs, Katherine and Tennant Creek. Labor’s margins have progressed over four elections from 5.3% to 7.7% to 11.2% to 3.7%. The diversity of the electorate’s components can make for enormously complicated election results, as demonstrated by local swings over the last three elections. In the wake of the Howard government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities before the 2007 election, mobile polling booths swung 8.4% to Warren Snowdon off an already very high base of 78.7%. However, it was a very different story in 2010, when these booths swung to the CLP by no less than 28.1% – a result variously put down to the troubled Strategic Indigenous Housing and Infrastructure Program, the actions of newly merged regional councils, and the ongoing suspension of the Racial Discrimination Act by the new Labor government. Remarkably, the swings in Alice Springs were in the opposite direction, with Snowdon down 2.6% in 2007 and up 8.4% in 2010. In Tennant Creek the Labor vote fell from 58.7% to 34.2% while the Greens rocketed from 4.6% to 33.7%, a result credited to the Muckaty Station nuclear waste dump proposal.
Snowdon is a figure in Labor’s Left faction, and has held junior ministry positions since the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He had earlier been a parliamentary secretary during his first stint as a member from 1990 to 1996, again reaching the position in opposition after the 2001 election. After the 2007 election win he received a substantial promotion to the junior defence science and personnel ministry, which Glenn Milne in The Australian credited to his close association with Julia Gillard. Snowdon was demoted to indigenous health, rural and regional services after Joel Fitzgibbon resigned as Defence Minister in June 2009, which Philip Dorling of the Canberra Times put down to incoming Defence Minister John Faulkner’s “longstanding lack of enthusiasm” for him, “and perhaps more specific concerns about the contribution Mr Snowdon’s office may have made in the past week to Fitzgibbon’s downfall”. He recovered defence science after the 2010 election and further gained veterans affairs, while dropping rural and regional services.
Puff # 1592, yes. Dr Andrew Leigh and Dr Craig Emerson .
[Liberal MP Bruce Billson described his leader as a “very gifted and intelligent person” and probably the most academically qualified economic mind in federal parliament.]
If he can believe that, believing all the rest of the Libs’ fabrications must be a soda.
PoK @ 1567
Much appreciated PoK.
When the American unionist Joe Hill was about to be executed for a crime he did not commit, his advice to his followers was “Don’t mourn, organise!”
I have taken that on board but done my mourning and moved on to organising and speaking out. The most positive tribute I can pay to my son.
vic and GG
Malthouse, Eade, Burns, Cameron, Wallace, Harvey, Roos
Take your pick
Yes, saw the US attitude towards what goes on the smokes packet on BBC.
Their constitution apparently makes showing dreadful pictures impinges on freedom of press/speech – don’t know – but it ranks, I suppose with the right to tote one (several) assault rifles to protect oneself.
Never will understand this part of their makeup.
The wallabies should recruit Israel Folau from AFL before he goes back to NRL.
This is contemporary Australia, and I love it.
http://t.co/pZwgWaKt
Diogs,
Malthouse probably
Eeade – too many failures
Burns – Being Homer’s boss is no endorsement
Cameron – Too busy being British PM
Harvey – Probably not a good fit with Carlton people. Didn’t take sacking well.
Roos – Has said he will not coach next year ( his son is doing year 12 in Sydney)
[victoria
Posted Sunday, August 26, 2012 at 5:24 pm | Permalink
GG
Talkback radio has gone feral. Carlton supporters have been ott. They want Ratten gone. As a Carlton supporter, I am very disheartened
]
Vic,
It will be for the best. His time was up very early on this year (you’ll hear more about what really happened when the various parties are ready to divulge). Sadly 2012 was a wasted year as a result. A new coach will do wonders with the team in 2013. Wait and see. Don’t feel sorry for Ratten he was given a more than decent run, more than many of our coaches in the past.
Tricot
If people in the US are happy to have assault rifles as protection I guess they don’t need anti-smoking messages. 🙁
The US ciggie decision is an intermediate appeal court decision with the chance for the vanquished to go to the Supreme Court.
If it makes it there it may go “along party lines” as did Obamacare save as to the Chief Justice.
GG
I can only say that a rookie coach at Adelaide has made a huge difference. If you can get a great rookie, it can turn you around.
You couldn’t go wrong with Malthouse though.
Scott Burns and Leon Cameron are meant to be very good.
Hi MC
Diogs,
I doubt Carlton will go with a rookie coach.
Scott Camporeale would have to be a chance.
Diogs,
Adelaide have won what?
deflationate
Fair enough. I will take your comments on board
rua
Boy, do you have a point there!
Strange country. Love it as a tourist but don’t think I would like to live there.
The natives are very friendly but you never know what the odd unfriendly one will blow your head off or aerate your body with bullets.
@Colvinius: Lest we forget, *this* is how reporters and editors actually behaved at the height of the Sun & N oTW’s power: http://t.co/p1caTpUL
I watched MTP this morning and they had a segment with Dr Kevin Donnelly, a well known Liberal shill on education. He was said to be from the Education Standards Institute which I had never heard of but immediately had my suspicions.
I checked it out here and got no surprises.
A sample:
Bomber Thompson for Carlton
@DoctorKarl: How would you justify all the conflicting data? @DigPlayground @McNultyDean The Climate Scientists’ date are not conflicted – only media.
[Is Bruce for real.]
The worry is that he might think so.
We won the preseason.
But more importantly, we have won the RESTECP of the other teams.
‘Liberal MP Bruce Billson described his leader as a “very gifted and intelligent person” and probably the most academically qualified economic mind in federal parliament.’
This is a great opportunity for the government to crow about the 9 economists in their ranks including 2 PHDs (Emerson and Leigh) both of whom I would have thought leave Abbott for dead ‘academically’.
Come Labor don’t be shy. Kick ’em now. Go!
@mrbenjaminlaw: So hypothetically, if Waleed Aly, @GMegalogenis and I all starred in an ethnic comedy together, you’d watch it right? http://t.co/pZwgWaKt
@KJBar: Apply for an ABC News cadetship here http://t.co/di7S99DC v @ABCcareers
victoria
[Not easy being a Carlton supporter at the moment.]
With all due respect – ROFL !
‘The worry is that he might think so’
No. The worry is the punters might think so because they don’t know any better. See my post above.
The government have to spoon feed the punter sometimes otherwise they’ll just never get it.
At this rate Canberra Press Gallery groupthink may start to match reality.
@JournalismLTU: .@LaTrobe University and @crikey_news to offer #journalism internships in the Canberra Press Gallery http://t.co/rmHfdPOP
I guess this is why he has never held an economic portfolio?
Imagine what the Carlton supporters who love Tony are going through. 😆
@mrbenjaminlaw: @GMegalogenis Love how everyone’s an honorary wog in your books. “Ben, I’m not a wog, am I?” Louise Adler asked me, concerned and confused.
TTFAB on 1514
Thank you. In future could I first check with you if a link has previously been posted before I link to it, you seems to suggest that you religiously read every comment on this blog? I don’t have the time to read every comment, however much I do enjoy reading them.
Hi David WH, come back to the play pen otr, an intelligent, thoughtful ‘conservative’ to cross swards with is desperately needed
rosemour,
The impact is already filtering through as someone posted earlier.
Qualitative studies of focus Groups reveal that people simply laugh whenever Tony Abbott’s name is mentioned.
Bilson’s comments are simply to start the rehablitation of Abbott’s economic credentials in the public mind.
Puff@1583:
Puff, you are right as always.
GG is a sad puppy. I feel very sorry for him, life seems to have dealt him lemons, and he sucks it up instead of making lemonade.
I’m sure Abbott can point us to all the scholarly papers he has contributed.
RE Carlton, as a Tiger there is nothing better than seeing both the bummers and the blues cooling their heals along with us this September
BK,
Congratulations for managing to get ‘Abbott’ and ‘scholarly’ in the same sentence!
Kidette
It was difficult!
BOUGHT MY LAPTOP MOFOS!
http://www.samsung.com/au/consumer/pc-peripherals/notebook-pc/ultra-book/NP550P5C-S03AU
It has a 4 core Ivy Bridge CPU that can run 2 threads per core. So that means I’ll be able to start 8 arguments at once.
don,
As far as I’m aware the only comment I’ve ever directed at you was to point out your bitterness regarding the great Australian cricket team of the 90s and 00’s which you had slagged off because of some incorrectly attributed comments about the death of a NZ cricketer’s sister.
Mostly, I ignore you because you have nothing interesting to say.
and all with yourself 😀
BK @ 1637,
[I’m sure Abbott can point us to all the scholarly papers he has contributed.]
He wouldn’t even need to point, y’know – they just are …
SK,
😀
[This is a great opportunity for the government to crow about the 9 economists in their ranks including 2 PHDs (Emerson and Leigh) both of whom I would have thought leave Abbott for dead ‘academically’.]
Sharman Stone has better economics qualifications than Abbott.
[and all with yourself ]
WRONG!
Sharon Stone has better economic qualifications than Abbott.
[don,
As far as I’m aware the only comment I’ve ever directed at you was to point out your bitterness regarding the great Australian cricket team of the 90s and 00′s which you had slagged off because of some incorrectly attributed comments about the death of a NZ cricketer’s sister.
Mostly, I ignore you because you have nothing interesting to say.]
???
[Sharman Stone has better economics qualifications than Abbott.]
Yeah, she was bookkeeper for a school canteen.
GG@1642:
Nothing to do with that. What you think of me means nothing to you or to me.
I just feel very sorry for you, you appear to find nothing of value in anything. I read all your posts with interest, and find that you are sad in pretty much all of them.
Life is short, death is long. Enjoy life while you can.