Galaxy: 57-43 to federal Coalition in Queensland; Seat of the week: Lingiari

GhostWhoVotes tweets that a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland gives the Coalition a two-party lead of 57-43 – a seven-point turn-around in Labor’s favour since the last such poll three months ago, suggesting a swing to the Coalition/LNP of only 2% since the 2010 election. Leaving aside the Labor-skewed Morgan face-to-face series, the last time a published poll of federal voting intention showed a swing that low was the Newspoll of May 27-29, 2011, which had the Coalition leading 52-48 nationally. The only Queensland seat Labor would lose on a uniform swing of that size would be Moreton, held by Graham Perrett on a margin of 1.1% (the present numbers in Queensland are 21 seats for the LNP, eight for Labor and one for Bob Katter). The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up seven on the previous poll) and 49% for the Coalition (down seven). The poll also finds 52% detecting little or no impact of the carbon tax on their household budget, against 15% for “major impact” and 27% for “minor impact”. New asylum seeker laws are rated “strong” by 26% of respondents, “inhumane” by 18% and “too little too late” by 51%. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, and has a margin of error of about 3.5%.

UPDATE: The Sunday Mail today has further results from the poll which show “two out of three people believe the Premier is going too far with his proposal to cut 20,000 public sector jobs”, together with figures showing widespared feelings of job insecurity, particularly among government employees.

Further evidence of the Queensland elastic snapping back was provided earlier this week by ReachTEL, which conducted automated phone polls of three seats out of the many which the LNP won from Labor at the state election. These showed Labor leading in two of the seats and lineball in the third. My own calculation of two-party preferred results based on preferences from the previous election had Labor leading 60-40 in Sandgate, a swing to the of 13%, and 51-49 in Brisbane Central, a swing to them of 6%. I had the LNP 51-49 ahead in Towsville, but Possum has it at 51-49 in Labor’s favour – no doubt having used a formula that took better account of the decline of the Katter’s Australian Party vote. The poll also found Campbell Newman’s personal ratings in Sandgate and Townsville in Tony Abbott if not Julia Gillard territory, though he scored better in Brisbane Central. There was similarly a strong view he had not kept his promises in Sandgate and Townville, but an even divide of opinion in Brisbane Central. The samples on each poll were around 400, for margins of error approaching 5%.

And not forgetting …

Seat of the week: Lingiari

I’ve previously been limited my Seat of the Week choices to seats where both parties have preselected candidates, but am making an exception today in a spirit of keeping things topical. The federal seat of Lingiari covers the entirety of the Northern Territory outside of Darwin, which for the most part will play second fiddle during tomorrow night’s election count: whereas Darwin’s suburbs teem with marginal seats, the remainder is largely divided between Country Liberal Party strongholds in Alice Springs and Labor strongholds elsewhere. However, the tea-leaves of the regional and remote results will be read carefully for federal implications given Labor member Warren Snowdon’s narrow margin in Lingiari, and recent rumours of Labor internal polling showing him headed for defeat.

The Northern Territory was first granted its own seat in the federal parliament in 1922, but its member did not attain full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the seat had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period of Labor control. The Country Liberal Party was established in 1978 as a local alliance between coalition parties to contest elections in the the newly established Northern Territory parliament, and Grant Tambling succeeded Calder as its members upon the latter’s retirement at the 1980 election. Tambling was unseated by Labor’s John Reeves in 1983, and returned as a Senator four years later. The seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered it for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.

The population of the Northern Territory is such that it consistently hovers between an entitlement of one or two seats according to the formula used to allocate seats to the states and territories. It first rose above the line prior to the 2001 election, resulting in the territory’s division between Solomon, covering Darwin, and Lingiari, which in accommodating the entire remainder of the territory is the second largest electorate in geographical terms after Durack in Western Australia. However, when the Australian Electoral Commission next conducted its mid-term determination of seat entitlements the Northern Territory had fallen 295 residents short of the number required to its second seat. With Labor and the Coalition both convinced they could win both seats at the 2004 election, the parliament proved amenable to arguments that the determination left the territory under-represented, and passed legislation to reinstate the second seat. Solomon and Lingiari accordingly have the lowest enrolments of any seats in Australia at around 62,000, compared with a national average of about 95,000 (which together with the extensive use of mobile booths explains the scarcity of numbers on the 2010 results map at the bottom of the post).

Lingiari is notable for having by far the highest proportion of indigenous persons of any seat in the country, at 41.8% against 15.7% for second-placed Durack. Relatedly, and depressingly, it also has the lowest median age of any electorate. The support of Aboriginal voters has given Labor enough of a base to have kept the seat in their hands, despite CLP strength in pastoral areas and the urban centres of Alice Springs, Katherine and Tennant Creek. Labor’s margins have progressed over four elections from 5.3% to 7.7% to 11.2% to 3.7%. The diversity of the electorate’s components can make for enormously complicated election results, as demonstrated by local swings over the last three elections. In the wake of the Howard government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities before the 2007 election, mobile polling booths swung 8.4% to Warren Snowdon off an already very high base of 78.7%. However, it was a very different story in 2010, when these booths swung to the CLP by no less than 28.1% – a result variously put down to the troubled Strategic Indigenous Housing and Infrastructure Program, the actions of newly merged regional councils, and the ongoing suspension of the Racial Discrimination Act by the new Labor government. Remarkably, the swings in Alice Springs were in the opposite direction, with Snowdon down 2.6% in 2007 and up 8.4% in 2010. In Tennant Creek the Labor vote fell from 58.7% to 34.2% while the Greens rocketed from 4.6% to 33.7%, a result credited to the Muckaty Station nuclear waste dump proposal.

Snowdon is a figure in Labor’s Left faction, and has held junior ministry positions since the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He had earlier been a parliamentary secretary during his first stint as a member from 1990 to 1996, again reaching the position in opposition after the 2001 election. After the 2007 election win he received a substantial promotion to the junior defence science and personnel ministry, which Glenn Milne in The Australian credited to his close association with Julia Gillard. Snowdon was demoted to indigenous health, rural and regional services after Joel Fitzgibbon resigned as Defence Minister in June 2009, which Philip Dorling of the Canberra Times put down to incoming Defence Minister John Faulkner’s “longstanding lack of enthusiasm” for him, “and perhaps more specific concerns about the contribution Mr Snowdon’s office may have made in the past week to Fitzgibbon’s downfall”. He recovered defence science after the 2010 election and further gained veterans affairs, while dropping rural and regional services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43 to federal Coalition in Queensland; Seat of the week: Lingiari”

Comments Page 31 of 38
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  3. guytaur,
    I think it’s way past time for Republicans of good heart to bell the cat about the increasing heartlessness and wingnuttery of the Latter Day Republican Party.

  5. guytaur @ 1497

    Just back. Caught up with comments.

    Bemused.

    Great generosity sir. All the efforts of those who fight depression are appreciated by me. That inludes Mr Kennett and Mr Robb.

    Thanks guytaur, but Kennett is more of a menace than a help.

    The particular issue I pursue is Youth Suicide. Now the major cause of death of young people under 25.

  8. MTBW @ 1498

    Bemused you have been more than gracious in your response you are a good man.

    Now I am blushing.
    You give me too much to live up to. 😉

  10. If Abbott tries to abolish HECS/HELP in favour of a more unfair system, he’d better brace himself.

    A very large number of students will find ourselves with very little to do if we can’t afford to go to university anymore, so we might instead spend our time arranging protests in the 100,000’s.

  12. Just in from a spot of gardening. I’ll add to the ‘Grey you are an arse’ comments by saying that was the single lowest comment I’ve seen on any blog, anywhere. William should remove it at the first opportunity.

    A special time of year in the garden. The dapnes and michelias giving way to the sweet pittosporums. The clivias are bursting to get out. And in the veggie/flower garden I cut my first asparagus spear today, the sweet peas are poised to go rampant, and spring is just around the corner. Life is good despite all the crap out there.

  13. bemused@1482:

    [My 1468

    Can someone send me the links so that I can get cccp on my browser? I had to rebuild my system and lost it.

    Thanks in advance.

    Ha, found it, the wonders of google…

    To use the Crikey Clear Comment Preview script, install in order:
    Firefox
    Greasemonkey
    cccp
    or:
    Google Chrome
    cccp

    My personal recommendation if using Google Chrome is to also install Tampermonkey and install cccp into Tampermonkey.]

    I tried your link for cccp, clicked install, a javascript appeared in my downloads folder, but when I click on it it the text opens in another program, bbedit.

    I have chrome installed, but cccp seems to have disappeared. Any help gratefully received.

  15. How to win social metrics for your party. Not.

    @latikambourke: Meanwhile, the Liberal Party is charging 99c for their App…

  16. SK @ 1481 (and Burgey @ 1416),

    [Maybe the question we should all be asking ourselves is ‘what can *I* do to make PB a better, more open, more equitable place?’

    IMHO, a better world, country, community and PB starts with that one question.]

    Yes indeed.

    Bemused, I respect your magnanimity. Grey, I respect your apology.

    I also have great respect for the PB community and its spirit.

  17. 1514

    That video has been posted on this blog twice already. Probably because it is just the sort on thing the readers of this blog like.

  18. @TheKouk: Interesting to note that the price of joining the Liberal Party (in $ terms that is) has not changed since the carbon tax started #auspol

  20. http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2012/08/25/monckton-questions-obamas-status-as-president-states-there-is-enough-to-cast-doubt-on-potus-place-of-birth/

    [Monckton questions Obama’s status as President: states there is enough to cast doubt on POTUS place of birth
    Aug 25 2012

    If further evidence is needed to support to the contention that many climate sceptics have embraced a cluster of conspiracy theories, look no further than Lord Christopher Monckton.

    The prominent climate sceptic – who has been feted by figures such as Gina Rinehart, Andrew Bolt, Alan Jones and Australia’s climate change “sceptics” – now claims the birth certificate on the White House is a forgery (which many of us know, he has been for some time).

    Monckton has been spending time in Hawaii “investigating” Obama’s birth certificate and detailing the results of his investigation in a series of ongoing interviews with Alex Jones, host of InfoWars.

    Jones is known for his support for New World Order conspiracy theories and that the U.S. government was behind the 9/11 attacks: ]
    more stupidity in the article

  21. don @ 1513

    I tried your link for cccp, clicked install, a javascript appeared in my downloads folder, but when I click on it it the text opens in another program, bbedit.

    I have chrome installed, but cccp seems to have disappeared. Any help gratefully received.

    All I had to do was install the cccp script as I already had Chrome installed and it had synced itself with another computer and had Tampermonkey installed.
    Tampermonkey works the same as Greasemonkey in Firefox.

    When installing cccp I got the javascript screen, but it installed OK.
    I got a prompt asking me if I wanted to install cccp in Tampermonkey or natively. I think Musrum has been doing a few tweaks. 🙂

    I suggest you start again. Maybe you should first check you have the latest Chrome.

    Good luck.

  22. grey

    You may have gone over the top and I am hoping that it is an experience you will learn from.

    bemused has graciously accepted your apology and I am hoping you will confirm his faith in you in future.

  24. I checked, and google chrome is up to date.

    I have a mac, and normally everything happens automatically, certainly it did last time.

    Exactly how do you install a javascript into chrome? It is sitting on my hard disk, staring at me blankly.

    thanks for your help.

  25. fiona @ 1516

    Bemused, I respect your magnanimity. Grey, I respect your apology.

    I hope out of this grey and I build a new and better relationship.

  28. Kloppers is now saying BHP has to change the way they dig stuff to reduce costs in the face of falling prices, but he hopes for a 10% p.a. increase in sales volume to offset the falling prices. (That is a nice short sentence that even TA should be able to understand. Probably short enough to tweet to him.)

    The company said last week it needed to improve the mining technology it would use at Olympic Dam to reduce costs if it was to be economically viable again.
    That effectively means it is starting again from an engineering point of view, which would delay the project for at least two years and it would need government approval.
    To offset lower prices, Mr Kloppers said he would be unhappy if the company could not grow volumes by about 10 per cent in each of the next two years in its core products – iron ore, coal, oil and gas, and copper.

    He also said that growth in demand for products will be lower, but the future is very attractive. What a sensible chap.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/bhps-kloppers-predicts-more-price-falls-20120826-24u66.html

  30. don @ 1524

    I checked, and google chrome is up to date.

    I have a mac, and normally everything happens automatically, certainly it did last time.

    Exactly how do you install a javascript into chrome? It is sitting on my hard disk, staring at me blankly.

    thanks for your help.

    I am suffering ‘Mac envy’!

    I wish I had taken more notice when I installed cccp. Over the top of the javascript I received some prompts to respond to. Did you get those? Read carefully if you did.

    The javascript disappeared after I responded to the last prompt.

  31. Bemused, I’m getting a message that Chrome won’t allow me to install anything on Chrome except stuff from the web store, and cccp is not listed.

  32. [Peter Clarke
    @MediaActive
    Melbourne
    Used to be an ABC broadcast journalist. Started national talkback in Australia. Now? Everything!]

    [Peter Clarke @MediaActive 4h
    Time to slither away @LarryPickering. Slither away. If you’re not embarrassed we are! Disgusting is not an adequate word]

  33. don @ 1531
    Is that an Apple restriction???
    Surely it will allow a script to be installed. Have you tried with Tampermonkey?

  36. Sorry I wasn’t around to mediate the earlier unpleasantness. Perhaps against my better judgement, I am not banning Grey, but he certainly will not be granted any further benefit of the doubt in future.

  37. [If Tone really hated Women then he would not have a relationship with his wife and three daughters and would not have employed a number of Women.]

    Tony doesn’t hate women, if he hated women he wouldn’t have a mother or a sister as a women, they would be men!

    The question is do misogynist men hate women? and if they do hate women, that would mean they would be single men, they would reject all contact with all females as they would be repulsed at thought of having a relationship with the females they hate.

    Which goes to prove only single men can be misogynists.
    http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/misogynist

    You know it makes sense.

  39. Thank you, William.

    And I think you have picked the right course. bemused has expressed his choice and all others should consider it over.

  41. William @ 1536 & 1538

    Good decision, I am sure grey has learnt a lesson and I thank the other PBers who drove it home.

    My ‘mildly tedious niggle’ at Frank’s site was because it is the source of inspiration for some of Finnigans rubbish and also some of the other less pleasant comments on PB.

  45. Seasprite – I think you are taking what I said to the extreme but it is common to find that men that do hate women, tend to have a hatred for their mother.

    They tend to be bitter and twisted with a negative outlook on life, they tend to blame their hatred on Women on the actions of their mother or some other Women they feel hard done by.

  46. Finally got it to work, using tampermonkey.

    Chrome seems to be becoming a nanny program.

    Thanks very much for your help, bemused.

  49. of inspiration for some of Finnigans rubbish and also some of the other less pleasant commeBEMUSED SAID

    well what can be said,
    ive never considered any thing finns has said is rubish
    I much rather have fun and laughter
    Than rudd talk

    Well i never

  50. I should add that yes many are single for they drive Women away with their attitude then turn it around blaming the Women.

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