Galaxy: 57-43 to federal Coalition in Queensland; Seat of the week: Lingiari

GhostWhoVotes tweets that a Galaxy poll on federal voting intention in Queensland gives the Coalition a two-party lead of 57-43 – a seven-point turn-around in Labor’s favour since the last such poll three months ago, suggesting a swing to the Coalition/LNP of only 2% since the 2010 election. Leaving aside the Labor-skewed Morgan face-to-face series, the last time a published poll of federal voting intention showed a swing that low was the Newspoll of May 27-29, 2011, which had the Coalition leading 52-48 nationally. The only Queensland seat Labor would lose on a uniform swing of that size would be Moreton, held by Graham Perrett on a margin of 1.1% (the present numbers in Queensland are 21 seats for the LNP, eight for Labor and one for Bob Katter). The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up seven on the previous poll) and 49% for the Coalition (down seven). The poll also finds 52% detecting little or no impact of the carbon tax on their household budget, against 15% for “major impact” and 27% for “minor impact”. New asylum seeker laws are rated “strong” by 26% of respondents, “inhumane” by 18% and “too little too late” by 51%. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800, and has a margin of error of about 3.5%.

UPDATE: The Sunday Mail today has further results from the poll which show “two out of three people believe the Premier is going too far with his proposal to cut 20,000 public sector jobs”, together with figures showing widespared feelings of job insecurity, particularly among government employees.

Further evidence of the Queensland elastic snapping back was provided earlier this week by ReachTEL, which conducted automated phone polls of three seats out of the many which the LNP won from Labor at the state election. These showed Labor leading in two of the seats and lineball in the third. My own calculation of two-party preferred results based on preferences from the previous election had Labor leading 60-40 in Sandgate, a swing to the of 13%, and 51-49 in Brisbane Central, a swing to them of 6%. I had the LNP 51-49 ahead in Towsville, but Possum has it at 51-49 in Labor’s favour – no doubt having used a formula that took better account of the decline of the Katter’s Australian Party vote. The poll also found Campbell Newman’s personal ratings in Sandgate and Townsville in Tony Abbott if not Julia Gillard territory, though he scored better in Brisbane Central. There was similarly a strong view he had not kept his promises in Sandgate and Townville, but an even divide of opinion in Brisbane Central. The samples on each poll were around 400, for margins of error approaching 5%.

And not forgetting …

Seat of the week: Lingiari

I’ve previously been limited my Seat of the Week choices to seats where both parties have preselected candidates, but am making an exception today in a spirit of keeping things topical. The federal seat of Lingiari covers the entirety of the Northern Territory outside of Darwin, which for the most part will play second fiddle during tomorrow night’s election count: whereas Darwin’s suburbs teem with marginal seats, the remainder is largely divided between Country Liberal Party strongholds in Alice Springs and Labor strongholds elsewhere. However, the tea-leaves of the regional and remote results will be read carefully for federal implications given Labor member Warren Snowdon’s narrow margin in Lingiari, and recent rumours of Labor internal polling showing him headed for defeat.

The Northern Territory was first granted its own seat in the federal parliament in 1922, but its member did not attain full voting rights until 1968. Perhaps not coincidentally, the seat had recently fallen to Sam Calder of the Country Party after a long period of Labor control. The Country Liberal Party was established in 1978 as a local alliance between coalition parties to contest elections in the the newly established Northern Territory parliament, and Grant Tambling succeeded Calder as its members upon the latter’s retirement at the 1980 election. Tambling was unseated by Labor’s John Reeves in 1983, and returned as a Senator four years later. The seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity: future Chief Minister Paul Everingham recovered it for the CLP in 1984, Warren Snowdon won it back for Labor in 1987, Nick Dondas held it for the CLP for one term from 1996, and Snowdon recovered it in 1998.

The population of the Northern Territory is such that it consistently hovers between an entitlement of one or two seats according to the formula used to allocate seats to the states and territories. It first rose above the line prior to the 2001 election, resulting in the territory’s division between Solomon, covering Darwin, and Lingiari, which in accommodating the entire remainder of the territory is the second largest electorate in geographical terms after Durack in Western Australia. However, when the Australian Electoral Commission next conducted its mid-term determination of seat entitlements the Northern Territory had fallen 295 residents short of the number required to its second seat. With Labor and the Coalition both convinced they could win both seats at the 2004 election, the parliament proved amenable to arguments that the determination left the territory under-represented, and passed legislation to reinstate the second seat. Solomon and Lingiari accordingly have the lowest enrolments of any seats in Australia at around 62,000, compared with a national average of about 95,000 (which together with the extensive use of mobile booths explains the scarcity of numbers on the 2010 results map at the bottom of the post).

Lingiari is notable for having by far the highest proportion of indigenous persons of any seat in the country, at 41.8% against 15.7% for second-placed Durack. Relatedly, and depressingly, it also has the lowest median age of any electorate. The support of Aboriginal voters has given Labor enough of a base to have kept the seat in their hands, despite CLP strength in pastoral areas and the urban centres of Alice Springs, Katherine and Tennant Creek. Labor’s margins have progressed over four elections from 5.3% to 7.7% to 11.2% to 3.7%. The diversity of the electorate’s components can make for enormously complicated election results, as demonstrated by local swings over the last three elections. In the wake of the Howard government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities before the 2007 election, mobile polling booths swung 8.4% to Warren Snowdon off an already very high base of 78.7%. However, it was a very different story in 2010, when these booths swung to the CLP by no less than 28.1% – a result variously put down to the troubled Strategic Indigenous Housing and Infrastructure Program, the actions of newly merged regional councils, and the ongoing suspension of the Racial Discrimination Act by the new Labor government. Remarkably, the swings in Alice Springs were in the opposite direction, with Snowdon down 2.6% in 2007 and up 8.4% in 2010. In Tennant Creek the Labor vote fell from 58.7% to 34.2% while the Greens rocketed from 4.6% to 33.7%, a result credited to the Muckaty Station nuclear waste dump proposal.

Snowdon is a figure in Labor’s Left faction, and has held junior ministry positions since the Rudd government came to power in 2007. He had earlier been a parliamentary secretary during his first stint as a member from 1990 to 1996, again reaching the position in opposition after the 2001 election. After the 2007 election win he received a substantial promotion to the junior defence science and personnel ministry, which Glenn Milne in The Australian credited to his close association with Julia Gillard. Snowdon was demoted to indigenous health, rural and regional services after Joel Fitzgibbon resigned as Defence Minister in June 2009, which Philip Dorling of the Canberra Times put down to incoming Defence Minister John Faulkner’s “longstanding lack of enthusiasm” for him, “and perhaps more specific concerns about the contribution Mr Snowdon’s office may have made in the past week to Fitzgibbon’s downfall”. He recovered defence science after the 2010 election and further gained veterans affairs, while dropping rural and regional services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43 to federal Coalition in Queensland; Seat of the week: Lingiari”

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  1. Latika was accused of spouting Lib rubbish so she has learned to put the name of the speaker in front of her quotes. Big advance.

    Can’t believe Abbott has gone to Tassie and repeating all the old misinformation. Why doesn’t someone call him out 😡

  5. My memory is not great at the best of times, especially at the crack of dawn on Saturday, but do I recall some postings a few months ago here that Campbell Newman would be drafted as federal coalition leader after one term as Qld premier?? 👿

  8. SK

    Yes agree. However it means Armstrong has preserved his good works and ability to continue them in the future. Glad to see this.

  12. victoria – indeed; I suspect there will be a few contenders for the vacancy; will be quite an interesting generational change from Howard generation – quite a big discontinuity

  13. @BernardKeane: Hedley Thomas nails it. There’s a media conspiracy IN FAVOUR of Julia Gillard. Pls send all available tinfoil to The Oz’s Brisbane bureau.

  14. guytaur,

    Just guessing here but people are not supporting cancer per se, but are casting a vote for his innocense based on emotion. Sadly for cancer research, it will only last as long as it takes for the next emotional/sensational big news item.

  15. Megalogenis is only good in comparison to his peers. Yes his piece today contains much that is true if unremarkable to anyone paying attention (which makes it a valuable service to The Australian’s readership).

    But WTF does he mean by:

    [He should pause and recall what the two most successful prime ministers of the modern era – [b]Bob Hawke[/b] and John Howard – did in their final year in opposition: they offered voters a reason to believe the next government would be better than the last.]

    I might only have been 12 at the time, but even I know Hawke only became opposition leader a few hours before Fraser called the 83 election. Not really much of year spent offering voters a reason to believe.

    I’ll let pass the Gillard bogan sledge detour as just the price that needs to be paid to pick up your paycheck at the OO.

  17. [Abbott is announcing a new LP task force to go around Tasmania to talk to Tasmanians about their ideas for the state. It will be led by Eric Abbetz.]

    Erica? Talking to someone and not at them?

    As &w=500&h=646&ei=gBo4UM3UBauViQebg4HoCQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=267&vpy=117&dur=3268&hovh=255&hovw=197&tx=119&ty=135&sig=108458087889480200428&page=1&tbnh=131&tbnw=80&start=0&ndsp=62&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0,i:74″ rel=”nofollow”>Uncle Otto would have said:

    [“Ve haf vaisss of making you talk”]

  18. [@latikambourke: Opposition Leader Tony Abbott admits the carbon price’s immediate effects have not been ‘catastrophic]

    Well, the LNP and its supporters wasted a lot of money telling us it was. Looking foolish now.

  20. Laocoon

    As has often been commented here, the glue that has held the coalition tight so far, is the great opinion polls. On the other hand, JG and her team are hanging on precariously each day with the threat of toppling over because of the dire polls. The Qld factor has turned that around quite a bit in the past few weeks. Will that give JG the wholesome support she needs within her own party?

  22. Re the ‘its time’ factor in the NT election.

    Time dilates up here.

    It took 23 years for that factor to kick in the first, and thus far only time it has happened.

    By that measure NT Labor should be safe for another decade or so. 😉

  24. Gorilla,

    Done:

    [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette

    I think Mar’n Fer’son also says we have a feral govmnt. (From Gorilla @PollBludger) #auspol [

  25. TLM changes opinions like the governor general chagnes outfits. One slip and he’ll be back on the Rudd bandwagon. At least there is a fair bit more room on there at the moment.

  26. Try again:

    [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette

    I think Mar’n Fer’son also says we have a feral govmnt. (From Gorilla @PollBludger) #auspol ]

  30. Apologies if already linked

    Particularly liked Kernot’s analysis

    [“Julia Gillard’s press conference was courageous and competent; she did not seek the cover of parliamentary privilege but fronted a room containing a number of (predominantly male) journalists who are running a vicious agenda aimed at her “character”; self-important little people convincing themselves they are acting in the “public interest”.  And she answered their questions for well over an hour.]

    http://thehoopla.com.au/say-yes-prime-minister/?cpg=2

  32. An opinion writer taking up the case for NZ plain packs

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10829279

    [Liam Dann on business
    Business editor of the New Zealand Herald, Liam Dann, discusses New Zealand and international financial matters

    Duty to protect our kids trumps tobacco’s case
    5:30 AM Saturday Aug 25, 2012

    For capitalism to work properly the companies that bring us wonderful shiny things such as smartphones, or services like insurance and banking, need to have security about the rules for doing business. Property rights and the security of intellectual property are crucial to provide a platform for a healthy, thriving economy.

    But British American Tobacco seems to be under the misapprehension that it can sell a poisonous, addictive drug and still demand the same rights as any other corporate entity.

    British American’s New Zealand general manager, Steve Rush, says plain packaging proposals create a “disturbing precedent” for other industries.

    They don’t.]

    Alcopops is a live issue in NZ
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10829326

    [Last-ditch bid to limit alcopops
    By Isaac Davison
    5:30 AM Saturday Aug 25, 2012

    Labour tables more amendments as Parliament prepares for final reading of contentious legislation

    The Labour Party will make a last-ditch attempt to introduce strict limits on the sale of sweetened alcoholic drinks after the National-led Government backed down on its plan to ban high-strength alcopops.

    MP Phil Goff has proposed changing alcohol laws to make it illegal to sell RTD (ready to drink) products with more than 5 per cent alcohol content or more than 1.5 standard drinks per bottle.

    He said yesterday: “We’ve got a massive problem with teenage binge-drinking. And this stuff is so sweet that it masks the alcohol taste and people drink it like soft drinks. It’s marketed to look like soft drinks.”

    He has tabled the amendment as Parliament prepares for the final reading of the bill, which could begin next week.]

  34. Sky have ignored ABbott’s speech which is odd given the network is often champing at the bit to bring anything Abbott-related to viewers.

  35. Some people were having trouble finding Laurie Oakes’ opinion column this morning.

    While it presumably still appears in the dead tree edition of the Telegraph, it doesn’t seem to appear in the Telegraph’s digital version.

    Rather, it can be found at news.com.au then click on “The Punch”, their opinion section like the ABC’s “The Drum”.

  36. And even Liberal Party mouthpiece in the West – Paul Murray – begrudgingly, and I stress begrudgingly – comes to the conclusion that Abbott might just be the reason the conservatives might lose the 2013 election.

    He does not given any kudos to Gillard, but he sulkily admits that Abbott’s three word slogans and his inability to cope with “hostile” interviews, calls his ability to be PM into question.

    I also agree with the proposition that the forces of darkness will still keep digging on S&G but this is just one more bit of lead in the saddle bag for the PM. Most of this stuff actually went over the heads of most of the electorate.

    Interesting outcomes in Queensland at the moment. For some of us, who have been make the point for months now, the closer the polls get, the more Liberal seats are within a 1-2% margin of being available for Labor to win.

    However, it is still a long way to go and two good weeks in politics this far out, is not enough.

    It is still day-by-day, week-by-week and month by month.

    Still, two weeks before the next sitting and only a handful of sitting days left before we enter an election year. If Labor are merely within striking distance – say something like a confirmed 52-48 trend, there is no reason not to think a win in 2013 is possible.

    The conservatives are becoming a little nervous about their boy though, as I posited last night, who else have they got?

    May Bjelke Newman continue on his merry way in Queensland and may his slash and burn budget be every bit as bad as he says it will be.

    Meanwhile Emperor Barnett is knee deep in trouble over electricity prices here in the West. Interestingly, a discussion of the 60% odd increase on talk back radio on Friday hardly gave a mention to any impact from the CT/CP.

    At this point I think Barnett will probably win in March next year, but I would not stack a lot of money on it.

  37. [Bushfire Bill,

    Isn’t that the community forum rehashed? Didn’t Abbott dis the idea?]

    Whatever Abbott’s views, taking Eric Abetz along with him to “win hearts and minds” is a monumental clanger of an idea, right up there with the siege of Stalingrad.

    They should have stuck to Uncle Otto’s method.

    All over Tassie I can see the tiny cadres of Liberal supporters, the huddled diaspora in their little hamlets, longing for the day when they can all troop off to the local School Of Arts and hear the Great Man extol the virtues of The Green Army and Stopping The Boats, with Eric as the support act.

    Not.

  38. @bradmarkham81: Tony Abbott steers clear of GST during speech to Tas. Libs conference. Tells journalists he’s “waiting to see what review shows”. #TasLib12

  39. Ok Bludgers,

    While I am happy that we are witnessing what seems to be a turning tide with the media, one has to ask the bleeding obvious – why did it take them so long to call out the incessant personal attacks on the PM and the almost feral barrage she had to endure EVERY SINGLE DAY FOR TWO BLOODY YEARS.

    If their sisters, mothers and daughters experienced the same they would be bloody quick to their defence.

    The same question could be asked about the incessant bloody lies Tony engaged in.

    Two years of navel gazing is the best result a media hack with a journalism degree can come up with. FFS!

  42. @mmechomski: Wow! RT @yinyangman69 Sitting with client who has autism, watching Abbott on TV. He points at TV and says,”He’s wearing a mask.” #AusPol

  43. @latikambourke: Asked Liberal Senator Arthur Sinodinos why he thinks BHP delayed expansion of Olympic – cites BHP’s reasons – not Mining/Carbon tax like TA”

  44. Tony Abbott’s little problem with women has become a whole lot worse this week. The girls are getting behind the PM. Even Michelle Grattan, who, for the first time ever (I think) addressed Julia Gillard as ‘Prime Minister’ at that presser instead of her usual snarky ‘Miss Gillard’.

    Abbott has been done over by a woman on the ABC and put through the ringer by another woman on Channel 9. It’s just not safe for him to front up for a TV interview any more, he might have to face yet another woman insisting that he tells the truth.

    https://twitter.com/tony_ryuu/status/239005412953825280/photo/1

  46. Dio

    Newman is a big part of it. But what about BOF and Ballieu playing games with the NDIS trial? What about the carbon price not being the apocalypse? What about low interest rates? And what about Ballieu cutting 300 million from TAFE?
    These are the sum of all the parts

  47. @latikambourke: Liberal Senator Arthur Sinodinos says restoring the ABCC would help alleviate construction costs – one of the reasons #BHP cited for delay.

    @latikambourke: Liberal Senator Arthur Sinodinos – ‘more workplace flexibility’ and cheaper content imports would also reduce construction costs. #BHP

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