Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

James J relates that Newspoll has Labor up further on a surprisingly strong result a fortnight ago: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is down from 54-46 to 53-47, and the primary votes are 35% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (steady) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Labor was last this high on two-party preferred in March, and on primaries when Labor enjoyed a brief spike in the days before Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge. Despite this, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings have weakened still further, her approval down two points to 27% and disapproval up one to 60%, while Tony Abbott continues what seems to be a steady upward trend over recent months: his approval is up two to 34% and his disapproval is down two to 54%. And on another counter-intuitive note, the latest poll nonetheless has Julia Gillard drawing level on preferred prime minister at 38% apiece, compared with a 38-36 lead for Abbott last time.

UPDATE: Morgan’s face-to-face poll covering the last two weekends also gives Labor it’s best result since March: their primary vote is up 2.5% to 34.5%, although the Coalition is also up half a point to 44%, with the Greens down 1.5% to 10%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and 53.5-46.5 to 53-47 on previous election preferences.

Newspoll having turned in results which look relatively kind to Labor twice in a row, I thought now might be a good time to review the recent performance of the pollsters relative to each other. I have done this by calculating averaged quarterly results for each regularly reporting pollster going back to the start of 2009 (with separate results included for the respondent-allocated and previous-election figures from Morgan’s face-to-face polls). The first chart shows the progress over that time of Labor’s two-party vote.

This shows an impressive consistency of trends once weekly/fortnightly/monthly fluctuations are ironed out. The closest we get to an aberration is the April-June 2009 result from Nielsen, which conducted only one poll in that period. A clearer indication of pollsters’ “house biases” can be provided if we convert the results into deviations from the average of the four pollsters (using the previous election measure for Morgan for the sake of consistency).

This indeed shows that Newspoll has lately been more generous to Labor than at any other point in the time covered, but the difference with Essential Research is still fairly modest. Nielsen, it would seem, has reliably been a point or two worse for Labor than Newspoll over the entire period. Essential favoured Labor in the early days of operation, apparently due to methodological teething problems, but has closely matched Newspoll throughout the current parliamentary term. It is true that a gap has opened in the two most recent observations, but I would want to see this continued over a longer time frame before reading much into it.

The widely recognised lean to Labor in Morgan-face-to-face polls is shown up fairly clearly on the respondent-allocated result, although the other pollsters “caught up” with it at the peak of the Rudd honeymoon. As I’ve probably said about a million times now, the gap which opened up between respondent-allocated and previous-election two-party results in early 2011 is an inexplicable quirk of Morgan’s. The respondent-allocated results produced by Nielsen show no such pattern, and if I had gone to the bother of including separate measures, it would have hugged the previous-election line as closely as Morgan’s did over the first half of the chart.

Taken together, the average two-party results for Labor since the 2010 election have been 45.9% from Newspoll, 44.2% from Nielsen, 45.7% from Essential, 48.1% from Morgan previous-election, and 45.9% from Morgan respondent-allocated.

Other polls:

• Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.

• Channel Nine in Brisbane tonight reported results of a statewide ReachTEL automated phone poll of over 1000 respondents, which showed the LNP on 42.2% (compared with 49.6% at the election), Labor on 31.6% (26.7%), Katter’s Australian Party on 9.6% (11.5%) and the Greens on 9.2% (7.5%), for an LNP lead of 56-44 (62.8-37.2) on two-party preferred. Daniel Hurst of Fairfax has more results from the poll, including the finding that Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating (42%) has nearly shaded his approval (44%). This adds to the impression from Morgan polling (see below) and last fortnight’s ReachTEL Ashgrove poll of a solid shift away from the LNP over recent months, albeit nowhere near enough to threaten their lead.

• Morgan has published a headache-inducing release on state voting intention which details results from various small-sample phone polls conducted over the past two months. Last week they polled between 319 and 343 respondents in each of the four biggest states; a month ago they polled 648 respondents nationally for a poll on “the most important public problems facing Australia”, from which tiny state-level sub-samples have been derived for comparing the latest results with. Every individual set of results is from too small a sample to be of much use, but you can see them all here if you’re interested. They can at least be used to derive combined July-August results for New South Wales and Victoria from passable samples of just below 500 and margins of error of around 4.5%. For New South Wales, the results are Coalition 54%, Labor 25% and Greens 10%, with the Coalition leading 61-39 on two-party preferred; for Victoria, Coalition 45%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%, with the Coalition leading 51-49. In each case Labor and the Greens get similar results to the previous elections, but the Coalition are three points higher on the primary vote in New South Wales and four points lower in Victoria.

• Jamie Walker of The Australian reports research conducted for Labor by UMR Research in March found Clive Palmer was viewed favourably by 26% of men and 16% of women, and unfavourably by 35% of men and 22% of women. Forty-two per cent of women and 26% men said they had never heard of him.

Preselections:

• Barnaby Joyce said last week he would “definitely” run for preselection in the outback Queensland seat of Maranoa if its 68-year-old incumbent, Bruce Scott, decided not to seek another term. Should Scott remain intransigent, he will “seek the counsel of party people in the electorate”.

• The NSW Nationals have confirmed state independent Richard Torbay as their candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England.

• Fairfax reports Jane Prentice, the LNP member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, faces preselection challenges from Jonathon Flegg, son of state government minister and former Liberal leader Bruce Flegg, and pharmacist John Caris.

• The ABC reports that Michael Burr withdrew as Liberal candidate for the northern Tasmanian marginal seat of Braddon last month, a fact which escaped by notice when I compiled my “seat of the week” entry a fortnight later. The front-runner to replace him would appear to be Brett Whiteley, who held a state seat in Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010. Former Senator Guy Barnett says he was approached to fill the vacancy, but is instead focusing on entering state politics. The two unsuccessful candidate for the original preselection, veterans advocate Jacqui Lambie and Poppy Growers Tasmania president Glynn Williams, have indicated they might try again.

• Barry Kennedy of the Sunbury Leader reports Sunbury businessman Ben Collier and two other candidates will contest Liberal preselection for McEwen on the weekend. Rob Mitchell gained the seat for Labor at the 2010 election and scored a free-kick at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, which adds Labor-voting Sunbury to the seat and boosts his margin from 5.3% to 9.2%.

• Warring factions in the NSW Liberal Party are reportedly negotiating a compromise after a “hard Right” push to entrench preselection plebiscites led to fears numerous sitting MPs would be targeted with branch-stacking. Together with a raft of state MPs, Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reported those affected might include Philip Ruddock in Berowra, Scott Morrison in Cook, Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Alex Hawke in Mitchell. Heath Aston of the Sun-Herald reports the compromise would likely involve sitting members being protected, branch members required to be members for two years before being entitled to a plebiscite vote, limitations on state executive’s power to impose candidates and, in a concession from the hard Right, a requirement for direct attendance at elections for state executive positions to guard against postal vote rorting. At the root of the dispute is the decision by state executive, which is dominated moderates and the centre Right, to impose centre Right candidate Lucy Wicks in the seat of Robertson.

• Shannon Tonkin of the Illawarra Mercury reports John Rumble, a Wollongong nurse and son of former local state MP Terry Rumble, will challenge incumbent Stephen Jones for Labor preselection in Throsby. It had been widely reported that the Right was gathering strength in local branches in preparation for a push by Mark Hay, son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, but he announced earlier this month that he would instead pursue work commitments with the Royal Australian Navy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,425 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Victoria,

    Well, yes probably. But it’s a nothing sort of story. You can’t get much mileage out of a claim that’s 17 years old, being peddled by a guy like Pickering. It’s need to be fresher, and have a ‘cleaner’ source than that. It won’t go anywhere.

    The thing is, shock radio is always going to leap on anything anyone says that dumps on Gillard. But it won’t spread beyond that if it has no legs.

  7. BH,

    These were for you:

    [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette

    Richo Disclosure: My comments are paid for by my ‘sponsors’. #qanda ]

    [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette

    Mmmm… lets look into Abbott’s past. Sexual harassment, assault and vandalism. And it is real not made up. #qanda ]

    [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette

    So Richo tell me why you resigned from your previous position? Didn’t you have to resign over your prozzie collection? #qanda ]

    [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette

    So we talking about how Richo holed up with women he had to pay yet? #qanda ]

    [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette

    Richo: Cash for comment. #qanda ]

  8. spur

    I’d suggest it’s from “Others’ – which (at least some of the time) is code for “Undecided”.

    Not worried about the PM’s personal rankings. Plenty of examples of parties winning with unpopular leaders, and parties losing with popular ones.

  10. [STFU Rudd and go away.

    But Connie, you are not presenting any CRITICAL analysis ]

    Centre, will fuckoff more critical?

  11. How you feeling Mod Lib?

    Maybe just a slight shade of ghost white!

    You clowns, contesting the opinions of good analysists right here on PB 🙂

  13. [Plenty of examples of parties winning with unpopular leaders, and parties losing with popular ones.]

    How about unpopular parties with unpopular leaders?

  15. SO

    I was referring to the wingnuts who think Newspoll makes up their results to fit their own Liberal narrative.

    Poliquant has Labor’s average primary at 32.6%. It will probably be 33% once this result is included.

  16. [Flat as a tack and this wont change much given Essential went the other way!]
    Any idea how he weights the different pollsters?

    Essential is released weekly, does he average them over a two week period?

    I can’t find the info on his site.

  17. Enjoy the moment Centre!

    I am actually pretty happy with the way things are right now, just as I have been happy with how they have been.

    (pretty happy most of the time truth be told!!! 🙂

  18. Generally speaking, you expect a PM to be unpopular and a LOTO to be popular. There’s no baggage and no accountability when you’re in opposition. The public aren’t going to blame you for anything. So Abbott’s figures are appalling, and Gillard’s are lowish.

    Still don’t see what people have against her. Even those who won’t go near the ALP will occasionally admit she performs well.

  20. its within MOE but nice to see a 47 for a change- wish it was 48 though that would have really scared the horses

    i wonder why the libs see Abbott as the hero the almost won them an election- he lost them the election, both at the polls, and at the negotiations with the Indies. He is a drag on their vote, but I am very happy for him to stay, so keep him please!!

  22. Generally the trend is positive for the ALP and flat for the Liberals.

    I’m not surprised and I think William predicted this a while ago when he pointed out that its natural for a Government introducing something and faced with a big scare campaign is going to see its poll numbers full.

    I also think we are starting to see some blow back from the performance of the State Government’s.

    We saw this during the Howard years any many voters unhappy with Howard took it out on the Liberals at state level.

    One of Tone’s problems is that the three Eastern state Liberal Governments or when in opposition tried the Tone strategy and now are to various degrees are moving away from it.

    Queensland seems to be the worst case of this with Can Do Sack. I image several Brisbane based seats are looking a little closer.

    I still think the next federal poll is Tone’s to lose

  24. [Any idea how he weights the different pollsters?

    Essential is released weekly, does he average them over a two week period?

    I can’t find the info on his site.]

    I don’t know.

    Given it merges 5 pollsters (Morgan, ACN, Newspoll and Galaxy phone plus Essential online as far as i know), whetever way he does Essential won’t make much difference.

  26. The finns

    Wish they would all lose the power of speech! Would be nice and peaceful!!

    Anyhow, calling it a night. May the msm and coalition get the hell they deserve!!

  27. [Poliquant has Labor’s average primary at 32.6%. It will probably be 33% once this result is included.]
    Still rather terrible, BUT with the proviso that Possum had the Labor primary trend on 30% 5 weeks ago.

  28. Aguirre i think it comes down to the fact that a woman isnt allowed to knife a man PM, and a woman isnt allowed to lie (carbon tax)

    Neither of which is true of course

  29. Two effects from that result are:

    The good ship PM Rudd slips just a bit further over the horizon. You might be able to discern a bit of smoke from the funnels, but all the crowd at the quay have packed up and are heading home. 35 PV will stiffen a few spines and the white ants won’t find too many willing to listen.

    The media’s free ride for Abbott becomes that touch harder to maintain. A few more hacks are going to have to acknowledge that an ALP win next year is at least theoretically possible.

    Going to be really fun to watch this play out. Realistically this is the very first time Abbott has been under any pressure at all since taking the leadership. At first he had no expectations on him. Merely not saying something breathtakingly stupid was a major win for him. Then he was hit up the arse by a rainbow with Labor deciding Rudd had to go, Gillard faltering early, and a campaign where the media simply refused to challenge him. Not getting the Indies on side wasn’t seen as much of a loss at the time because he’d done brilliantly to just get the Coalition so close and anyway he’d be in the Lodge by Christmas. Since then of course it’s been all smooth sailing with scare campaigns and poll leads being accepted as a valid substitute for you know actual policies and stuff. But now? No more Boats stick to beat the government with, a Carbon Tax that started out as a wrecking ball, morphed into a python, and is latterly looking more damp squib. No schools hit list after today either.

    Nope for the first time in his leadership the buffoon could just find himself under a little pressure. It wasn’t something he always handled with aplomb as a minister. Which hack is going to be the first to wake up that there could be leadership fun and games to be had this killing season, only it’s not the leader they’ve been thinking for 2 years was under pressure.

  31. [Aguirre
    Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
    Generally speaking, you expect a PM to be unpopular and a LOTO to be popular. ]

    Actually I think the opposite is true….the PM usually has a 3-4% better net approval on average over the years I remember seeing.

    (Which of course makes the Gillard ratins, particularly given who she is up against, as “appalling”- as you put it!)

  33. I think this poll is getting the PM into the territory of, ‘You may not like her, but you’ve got to respect her and the government she leads.’

    So 24% didn’t want to choose either PMJG or Tony Abbott as their Preferred PM?

    Or, to put it another way, they believe the anti-Gillard propaganda that the MSM is running, but they just can’t cop Abbott as the alternative.

    Cue the Ruddites coming into the scene with their predictable, ‘Have we got the man for you’.

    Still, the PM has way more runs on the board now than Rudd had before his own side bowled him out.

    I also think she is the best one to ‘Slowly, slowly, catchee :monkey: ‘ 🙂

  35. Compared to Essential, the biggest difference from the new Newspoll is the Coalition vote, 4 pts less on Newspoll.

    I suspect the LNP vote is getting softer, and its showing first more on phone polls (a more spur of moment response?) than on the online Essential one. Just a guess.

  37. An interesting number would be how many undecided, I know they are not usually reported but it would be interesting to know if there has been any movement

  38. Well seems as this is ok since everybody is getting away with it…so I will copy same theme..

    [STFU Rudd and go away.]

    thus

    [STFU Gillard and go away.]

  39. [35 PV will stiffen a few spines and the white ants won’t find too many willing to listen.]
    Let’s not get carried away. Labor’s primary vote more than likely isn’t currently trending at 35%, it is most likely a bit lower than that.

    Let’s see Labor get another few polls in the mid 30s before we say that is where they are at.

    Oh, and even if they are on 35, they got 38 at the last election remember, and that was considered a bad result.

    [Showson

    Here’s Possum’s latest pollytrend]
    Thanks!

  40. [Cue the Ruddites coming into the scene with their predictable, ‘Have we got the man for you’.]

    C@, yes, into the dust bin of history

  41. […except for the fact that Abbott has beaten Gillard on net approvals about 90% of the Newspoll in the last year or so.]

    He has. But historically, persistent bad netsats for an Opposition Leader spell doom for that leader – even if his party is winning – while persistent bad netsats for a PM are no barrier to re-election.

  42. [I have made the “Devil you know” point about the election in 2013 for months now. What other way will JG fight it?]

    That’d be her wisest strategy. Worked in 04. May not work next election but better strategy than relying on her popularity.

    As long as the ALP don’t think this means getting hung up and indignant over everything Abbott says and does. Just stick to issues and management competence.

  43. Ahh

    Spur212

    True and through Labor supporter with the very best interests of the Party at heart!

    Still think Labor should reinstate Rudd?

    You will get your leadershit, don’t worry about that 😯

  44. Did a bit more digging about Richo.

    [In 1992, Richardson was forced to resign his commission as Minister following revelations that he had used his position and influence to help his cousin, Gregory Symons, who was subsequently jailed for forging government documents relating to a migration scam.]

  46. Its interesting that the large rise in the ALP vote seems to be at the expense of the Greens, so minimal change in TPP (as 80% of Greens votes would have gone to the ALP anyway).

  48. Schnappi@54,

    Thomson asking questions in QT , also show the tide is turning

    Well spotted, that man. I wondered the same thing to myself this afternoon. I thought that the government must have started the Rehabilitation of Craig after the Privileges Committee found in his favour today.

  49. SK – thanks. They just roll off your keyboard so easily it seems. Richo needs a kick in the pants. Who is he to pontificate on anyone else. He lost all credibility yonks ago. He doesn’t have mates left in labor but makes out he does.

  50. [Well spotted, that man. I wondered the same thing to myself this afternoon. I thought that the government must have started the Rehabilitation of Craig after the Privileges Committee found in his favour today.]
    No, it was simply Thomson’s turn to be one of the independents that gets to ask a question.

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