Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.

Preselection snippets:

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.

• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.

The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.

• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.

• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,198 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. my say I have contacted politicians often enough and even received a personal threat after contacting one of the major political parties. I am pretty sure all were a complete waste of time.

  2. [That’s what I believe Labor should have done all along: they should have agreed to Nauru and Manus Island last year and perhaps even TPVs. If they’d done that, Nauru and Manus Island would be full by now and we would already be into Malaysia vs turning back the boarts.]

    Totally agree MB. Problem then was the party wasn’t ready for it. Now they are. It’s amazing how the prospect of an electoral wipeout can focus the political mind.

  3. my say –

    If you set up a panel which was a very smart move.

    you take the advice of that panel ,

    i dont see any capitulating at all.

    I agree with the rationale for the panel and the way the government will probably respond – that all makes sense.

    Ultimately, though, the outcome of this process will be the adoption of most of the Coalition’s platform. I can’t see that as anything other than capitulation. It can be spun as appropriate, and I wait to see how the government play it, but still…

    There’s no point in talking about medium and long term at this point – the government only has what happens over the next 12 months, and … that’s only going to be the short term stuff – Nauru, PNG, changing family reunions – Coalition policy.

  4. [The big change is that ALL boat arrivals get processed in a 3rd country. Christmas Island gets closed to boats.]

    This would explain the questions from journos about queues and trying to establish who gets sent to Nauru and so on.

    Thanks for that ruawake.

  5. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    Remember when Kevin Rudd said ‘This party and government will not be lurching to the right on the question of #asylum seekers?’]

    Can someone ask Latika who fed her that one? I’ll bet London to brick that there’s no way in hell she remembered it all by herself.

  6. “The big change is that ALL boat arrivals get processed in a 3rd country. Christmas Island gets closed to boats.”

    What does “closed to boats” mean? The boats are still going to head there because it’s the easier option for them.

  7. yes, there is no harm adopting the whole recommendation, thats what i am think the PM had in mind any way no one has backed down in the gov.

    just accepted the recommendation. its quite simple really.

    thats what we all do in life, if for example your building a house, and you it want it to face east the engineer says no its should face north,
    you accept the decision of the the person you ask for advice.

    there are many of the scenarios even in sport

  8. [my say
    Posted Monday, August 13, 2012 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

    david w

    may be you would like to give your morrisson a ring th]

    Yes, David, just pick up the phone, LOL!

    Good post of yours at 70,by the way.

  9. JohD
    That is so, but you could lube it up and insert it then sit down.
    I’ll send Scoot the instructions re: pulling the pin once its up there.

  10. All the recommendations must be adopted as the three experts have said.

    What will Julia do, go for the win bet, or play the percentages.

    I think she will play the percentages – and score the win instead of the kill!.

    First boat death… dog help them all. 😎

  11. can some one please tweet that abd reporter who tweets al day that MR Rudd is not
    pm

    has she noticed

    simple as that. no big deal

  12. What does “closed to boats” mean? The boats are still going to head there because it’s the easier option for them.

    They will not be processsed on CI.

  13. [I thing Gillard will adopt the recommendations in toto.]

    Rosemour, are you deaf? Houston Panel said you cant pick & choose. It’s the total package or nothing.

  14. GD I am 100% certain that Morrison and I don’t see eye-to-eye on the refugee issue so any phone call would likely end up a waste of time. 🙂

    Rudd did in fact refer to the lurch to the right on refugees on the night before his demise. It was one of the more honest and passionate statements I ever remember the former PM uttering.

  15. McF Marty
    [The big change is that ALL boat arrivals get processed in a 3rd country. Christmas Island gets closed to boats.]

    No, they won’t head for CI because they will be sent back to be processed on Nauru, Manus or eventually Malaysia or another regional place.

    People are saying don’t open Nauru as if it’s the same “Nauru”, but it will presumably have more safeguards.

  16. I think The PM will want a full and frank caucus debate before announcing the acceptance of all 22 recommendations. 🙂

  17. Jen Redding‏@JenRedding64

    Morrison NOW lauding the Panel of experts that Abbott said that they were going to ignore. CHRIST ALMIGHTY THE LNP ARE INSANE

  18. Two obvious things to come out of this AS issue today from my perspective

    1. The Greens are happy to sit on an 8-10% primary made up of idealists and are content to exist as a small and less accountable fringe group.

    2. The PM, by forming this panel, has brought this issue to a head and it will finally be dealt with and removed from the front pages.

    With the AS issue and the Carbon issue dealt with, the Govt can BRING ON GONSKI AND THE NDIS!!

  19. Coming up @LyndalCurtis speaks with Independent MP Tony Windsor following the release of the #AsylumReport #auspol

  20. i really think you are all missing the point Finns seems to get it.

    the recomendation has not come from the gov, or the other mob.

    The gov got the panel together for a reason, a strategic reason,

    mission accomplished.

    The Pm says we accept the committees report.

    move on over and out the opp can scream all they like the GOV have NOT made this decision the committee did.

    back to the weeding

  21. Rex Douglas: You honestly think this issue is going to be resolved? Why would the LNP want to resolve the issue? The Greens don’t either. We are exactly where we were 6 weeks ago.

  22. Can someone who has read the report explain to me why reopening Nauru and establishing PNG will deter arrivals by boat?

    AS can still hop on boats to CI and be flown to Nauru or PNG (at the tax payers expense) for processing.

    I don’t see AS being deterred by spending perhaps a few years living outside of Australia while being processed as an issue if they have a genuine claim for refuge, which as we know most do.

  23. [Rex Douglas

    Two obvious things to come out of this AS issue today from my perspective

    1. The Greens are happy to sit on an 8-10% primary made up of idealists and are content to exist as a small and less accountable fringe group.]

    Absolutely on the money. Anyone with even a passing knowledge of the package of Greens policy measures can see that they have no intention whatever of forming government.

    This leaves the Greens with the political spoiler role: the destruction of the centre left governments to the benefit of the Coalition.

  24. Yes, the Houston panel have said that the whole report should be adopted in its entirety.

    But they have also said that Nauru and Manus should commence immediately.

    The monkey :mrgreen: will take Nauru and Manus immediately, but will reject Malaysia.

    So what will Julia do, go for the straight out riskier win or play the percentages?

    She will play the percentages, like a good punter 😀 and score a victory without aiming for the big knockout.

    But what if the boats keep coming? What if people still lose their lives on the journey to our shores?

    The full recommendations MUST be adopted!

    If Abbott is still being a little sh!t, it’s up to theGreens. If they refuse, you get rid of them by putting them last and take the issue to the election!

  25. Schnappi
    [Morrison NOW lauding the Panel of experts that Abbott said that they were going to ignore. CHRIST ALMIGHTY THE LNP ARE INSANE]
    Insane is too easy an out!

  26. Schnappi

    [CHRIST ALMIGHTY THE LNP ARE INSANE]

    They’ve got the point that the public just want something done and they’re seen a blocking.

    Morrison is just trying to say it was all their idea.

  27. t

    [I don’t see AS being deterred by spending perhaps a few years living outside of Australia while being processed as an issue if they have a genuine claim for refuge, which as we know most do.]

    Part of your comment provides part of the answer: if you know you are not a genuine refugee then the thought of Nauru might be a bit off-putting.

  28. trawler

    One recommendation is that there will be no family reunions for boat arrivals. This removes the current strategy of sending a teenager on a boat and the teenager then applying for the rest of his family to join him.

    The smugglers have used this very effectively, even for their own families to join them.

  29. centre

    [Yes, the Houston panel have said that the whole report should be adopted in its entirety.

    But they have also said that Nauru and Manus should commence immediately.

    The monkey :mrgreen: will take Nauru and Manus immediately, but will reject Malaysia.]

    The very clever ‘out’ is that the legislation is passed but the individual off-shore processing centres are individually subject to disallowable instruments.

    In other words, parliament agrees to the framework which might or might not include Nauru, Manus and Malaysia.

  30. The monkey will take Nauru and Manus immediately, but will reject Malaysia.

    He cannot do this, the recommendations say that the Parliament decides where people can be processed offshore. He has to support this legislation to get Nauru. Then it is just a case of getting Malaysia accepted by the Parliament.

  31. [The retired air chief marshal said some 964 asylum-seekers and crew had lost their lives at sea while trying to making it to Australia since late 2001, with 604 of these perishing since Oct. 2009.

    “Like all Australians, we are deeply concerned about this tragic loss of life at sea,” he said. “To do nothing is unacceptable.”]

    wRONg. It is acceptable to the Greens and to the Coalition.

  32. Boerwar @ 137

    Part of your comment provides part of the answer: if you know you are not a genuine refugee then the thought of Nauru might be a bit off-putting.

    Colour me confused but I didn’t think that non-genuine refugees were a problem – aren’t the vast majority arriving by boat determined to be genuine refugees?

    I thought what we were trying to establish here was a method to deter asylum seekers from getting on a boat to Australia in the first case.

  33. Boerwar:

    From memory the 600-odd deaths had occurred since 2009. A huge number of lives lost unnecessarily.

    And that’s just the people they know about. I’d bet there are more who died on boats that were never detected.

  34. confessions:

    [according to the Refugee Council of Australia, in 1998–99, approximately 97 per cent of Iraqi and 92 per cent of Afghan applicants (the majority of whom would have arrived by boat) were granted refugee status and given permanent protection visas32

    under the ‘Pacific Solution’ a total of 1637 unauthorised arrivals were detained in the Nauru and Manus facilities between September 2001 and February 2008.33 Of those, 1153 (70 per cent) were found to be refugees and ultimately resettled to Australia or other countries34

    during the Rudd Government approximately 90–95 per cent of assessments completed on Christmas Island resulted in protection visas being granted.35 For example, of the 1254 claims assessed on Christmas Island between 1 July 2009 and 31 January 2010, only 110 people were assessed as not being refugees.36 These figures suggest that 1144 (approximately 91 per cent) of those claims were successful.
    30.]

  35. The Kouk writing in Business Spectator on “Where is all the money going” –

    On any aggregate measure, there has been a decade-long easing in cost of living pressures for the average Australian household.

    This has been driven by a powerful mix of rising wages, rising pensions and lower taxes which have swamped the impact of generally small price rises and what is currently a very low rate of inflation. Complaints from the general community about “doing it tough” are hard to fathom.

    To electricity first. The average household allocates a little over 2 per cent of spending to the consumption of electricity. If gas and “other household fuel” (wood, heating oil and the like) are added to electricity, the total spend is around 2.5 per cent.

    By way of comparison, 4.8 per cent of household spending is on petrol (including diesel and gas), double that of electricity. Since the June quarter 2008, petrol prices have fallen 2.5 per cent, but you don’t hear too much of that is the atmospherics and high drama of these “tough” times.

    A quite remarkable (to my mind) 3.6 per cent of household spending is on alcoholic beverages, cigarettes and tobacco. That’s about 50 per cent more than is spent on electricity. It is even more extreme for hotels, restaurants and cafes, which account for 7.1 per cent of household expenditure – nearly three times the amount spent on electricity.

    There are around 8.6 million households in Australia, meaning the average annual expenditure on electricity is currently about $2,000. Five years ago, the average expenditure was around $1,200 a year.

    The average annual household electricity bill has risen by $800 over that time, which translates to around $15.40 a week. At face value this seems a lot. Note that the average household spends $117 a week on hotels, restaurants and cafes.

    Over those same five years, average weekly earnings have risen by $180 a week (recall there are an average of 1.4 people in paid employment in each household) and for a single age pensioner, the weekly pension has risen by around $80 a week.

    But based on the aggregate data…… there are many more people who are much better off now than five years ago.

    More in full article –

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/household-spending-inflation-electricity-tax-CPI-pd20120813-X52CW?OpenDocument&emcontent_spectators&src=rot

  36. Then it is just a case of getting Malaysia accepted by the Parliament.

    Yes. I’m not entirely sure how this helps the government.

    If the destination is a disallowable instrument then Malaysia will be disallowed in the Senate whenever the government puts it up.

    Malaysia is out until something shifts fundamentally with the politics…

    For big legislative changes, if the government gets it right it’s possible to ramp up the political pressure to get something passed in particular circumstances that might otherwise not be.

    For regulations that can be disallowed it’s quite a different kettle of fish, and the Senate independently can tell the government to F-off, and certainly will over Malaysia for the foreseeable future.

  37. Rua

    It’s Abbott we are talking about. We are not dealing with a reasonable human being (ok monkey).

    Abbott will not support Malaysia, he will insist on the recommendations that Nauru and Manus commence immediately.

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