Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.

Preselection snippets:

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.

• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.

• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.

• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.

• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,198 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  2. [I presume Mysay was around when Mary McKillop did her dastardly deeds – if not, then he has no standing to pass any judgements on her LOL]

    my say is a woman.

    What is it with today’s Liberals that all they can perceive in public life and public commentary are men?

  3. confessions – was reminded of similar prose style (and substantive argument style) hence asked the question. what’s your problem? from your comment, it strikes me that u might be a reincarnation of Frank Calabrese

    Mod, I compare Libs to Republicans in terms of the relative weakness of their offering relative to the incumbents. not that they have the same policy platforms, but what they both offer pretty much sux. more importantly, obama and gilliard show a lot of common mistakes but one is a hero versus the other being the devil in your eyes – amuses me

  4. Expat et al

    My say has arthritis in her hands and typing on an ipad is difficult. I believe hitting space twice gives a full stop causing her sentences to appear disjointed.

    Readers need to look for the meaning of the posts not the format.

    Hope you don’t mind me jumping in My Say.

  5. [Expat Follower
    Posted Saturday, August 18, 2012 at 12:13 am | Permalink
    Do you have anything against Carbon Pricing per se, Mod… or is it just that Gilliard said she wouldnt do it but then did that bugs you? Which is the more important objection.]

    I think it is definitely a good idea to control carbon emissions, but for all significant changes there needs to be a clear explanation. Why is it needed, what is the objective of the new policy. I still have absolutely no idea what is going on, why it is $23 and not $21, why is it 3 years fixed and not 1 or not 5, what is the planned reduction in global temperatures if the whole world did what we are doing and what is the impact on our economy/jobs by going down this path when our trading partners are not.

  8. [What is it with today’s Liberals that all they can perceive in public life and public commentary are men?]

    You just got called a Liberal Expat.

    Haha! 🙂

  10. [So let me get this straight, you think the Australian LIberal Party is equivalent to the US Republican party eh?]
    Joe Hockey’s ranting about the Australian debt cap was straight out of the Republican Party play-book.

    A couple of months ago Hockey went to London and made a speech where he said that Hong Kong’s debt to GDP ratio is “moderate”. What he didn’t say is that Australia’s debt to GDP ratio is a bit under HALF of Hong Kong’s, but a week later he went into the House of Representatives and tried to suspend standing orders DURING DEBATE ON A BUDGET BILL, because he says that we have too much debt!!!

    Total and absolute hypocrisy is something Coalition politicians and Republican party politicians have in common, because most of the debt the U.S. government has was caused by passage of the Bush tax cuts without paying for them, which proves that Republicans don’t actually care about debt or deficits.

  11. Mysay, no offence intended with the Ron qn… an in-house joke for those of us following this blog for a long time. Sorry to mistake your gender also. Nothing indecent intended… i wonder if that holds true of your “i live here so u can f off” argument.

    Confessions, so I am a Liberal am I? anyone u dont like must be one… does v much sound like FC now that i think about it 🙂

  12. Ms adventure. Thank u
    Funnily enough on.the big key board i can. Touch type ,
    But. On. This. Tiny key board its rather hard.

    Yes well i. Don’t. Mind if iam made fun of
    It says more about they than i

    But i should try harder,

  14. Expat Follower @ 7103

    confessions – was reminded of similar prose style (and substantive argument style) hence asked the question. what’s your problem? from your comment, it strikes me that u might be a reincarnation of Frank Calabrese

    Absolute gold!

    You bring a refreshing honesty to PB.

  15. Mysay, I was posting here as far back as 2005 cf my reference to Ron who you have never heard of, which means that you havent been here so long, which by your established logic (!) means that you have no right to an opinion relative to me…

    I can take liberal with a small “L”, but thats as far as i can bear!

  16. I do miss Frank.

    He once told me that he would be around on PB a lot longer than I.

    Alas, he no longer posts here, but unfortunately for most of you, I still do…

  19. [I think it is definitely a good idea to control carbon emissions, but for all significant changes there needs to be a clear explanation. Why is it needed, what is the objective of the new policy.]
    LOLOLOLOLOLO

    The objective is to cut carbon emissions at the least cost!
    [I still have absolutely no idea what is going on, why it is $23 and not $21,]
    Because the Shergold review, the first government review to recommend a carbon price, recommended the price start at $20 a tonne in 2008, but it is now 2012, so it makes sense to increase the price to reflect inflation.
    [why is it 3 years fixed and not 1 or not 5,]
    Well this was really caused by the fact Labor and the Greens couldn’t agree on the exact starting price, the Greens wanted it to be higher, Labor wanted it to be lower.

    Having at least 1 year of a fixed priced period makes compliance easier for business to adapt to a new regulation.

    But I’m not quite sure why I am explaining this to you. Rather than being a big baby and expecting to be spoon fed all this information, why don’t you read the Treasury modelling document?
    http://archive.treasury.gov.au/carbonpricemodelling/content/report.asp

    [what is the planned reduction in global temperatures if the whole world did what we are doing]
    It will keep temperature increases by the end of the century below 2.5 degrees.

    [and what is the impact on our economy/jobs by going down this path when our trading partners are not.]
    Oh that’s interesting, so Australia doesn’t trade with China?

    I think you should do some research. Perhaps the DFAT website may be a good place to start?

  20. and by the way, i loved Ron and even the rest of the amigos… we had a lot of fun with the flame wars of 2008. this is lightweight stuff by comparison 🙂

  21. My Say,

    I always read what you post, and I ache on my elders’ behalf with your pain.

    How do you manage your sewing and handcraft with such problems? Not that I’m criticising – just amazed that you can do so much.

  22. Shows On:

    All this “we are so much smarter than everyone else and if only the electors were as smart as us” stuff was blown out of the water when the self same ALP tried to tell us that Australia needed Latham to be its leader!

  23. did her dastardly deeds. Some posted. This

    Well if. Setting up. Schools for all comers and. The poor is. Classed ad dastardly deeds.

    Words fail.me.

  24. Mod Lib @ 7105

    I think it is definitely a good idea to control carbon emissions, but for all significant changes there needs to be a clear explanation. Why is it needed, what is the objective of the new policy. I still have absolutely no idea what is going on, why it is $23 and not $21, why is it 3 years fixed and not 1 or not 5, what is the planned reduction in global temperatures if the whole world did what we are doing and what is the impact on our economy/jobs by going down this path when our trading partners are not.

    All in the treasury modelling and reasonably well publicised in the MSM. Do pay attention.

    Global temperatures will not fall, as you should be well aware, for a long time due to inherent lags in the system and the time it will take to achieve just stabilisation in CO2 ppm.

    Try to be a little more sophisticated than the shock jocks in your argument.

  26. [what’s your problem?]

    My ‘problem’ is that this blog has a surfeit of commenters like you who make assumptions around gender.

    Either pony up and be respectful of others or be prepared to be criticised. And your invoking commenters who no longer comment here is indicative of a glass jaw. Surely you can do better.

  27. Fiona

    If. U. Don’t use it u. Lose it

    And if i did not. Use my mind to. Create i woukd. Go. Crazy
    Just finished a william morris applique. Quilt

    If u. Go. To michele hill website u will get tne idea,
    It. Took me over 2 years

  28. Its not a question of whether temperatures fall, its an issue of the magnitude of the slowdown in temperature rises.

    I don’t mind being patronised by fellow bloggers here.

    When Rudd was deposed I said it wasn’t explained and was hounded by repeated bloggers.

    Then earlier this year Gillard admitted that it wasn’t explained and that was one of the mistakes she made when she took over.

    LOL 🙂

    We have the ALP arguing that it is push factors not pull factors causing asylum seekers to rock up in Australia.

    Now we have the ALP bloggers here arguing without a flicker of hesitation, that unless the Coalition support the ALP domestic policy changes Asylum seekers will die on the oceans trying to get here.

    So what is it? Push or pull now, or does it depend on what Sussex St tells you to think?

  29. [Shows On:

    All this “we are so much smarter than everyone else and if only the electors were as smart as us” stuff was blown out of the water when the self same ALP tried to tell us that Australia needed Latham to be its leader!]
    LOL! Woah! Sorry clearly, all the points I have made over my last few posts that point out how wrong you are about nearly everything clearly touched a raw nerve.

    You’re pretty hilarious though. You demonstrate your complete ignorance on an issue, and then somehow say that that means the policy is bad because it is too difficult for you to understand it!

    No wonder you think Tony Abbott’s policy of just repealing the carbon price and replacing it with massive government spending makes more sense!!!

    But don’t bother asking yourself where the money will come from to fund all that carbon abatement, it may make your head hurt when you realise that the answer is “other taxes”.

  30. mysay, how can you profess any knowledge about Mary McK – you werent there…?
    i am happy to say that i have no idea if she was great or bad… but by your past arguments, neither can you. that was my point

    Mod – i got two words for you “Alexander Downer”

  33. Mod Lib:

    What are you going to do when the Liberals lose the next election?

    Given you absent yourself upon favourable Newspolls/weeks for the govt, will you still be commenting here in a losing Liberal election campaign?

  34. Shows On:

    I have no problem with you taking my non response to be an indication of complete and utter surrender to the weight of your argument.

    I have seen you in action remember!!!!

  35. I like to think every o e here goes to. Bed hapy
    I was a little rude to. Expat.
    But then i don’t like our julia being criticized
    No one has had to put up with. What she has. Had to
    When she is. Such a. Good person

    Tnat. Being said , i also like to comment on poss. When. I feel a postef. Is. Bei ng neglected

  36. [When Rudd was deposed I said it wasn’t explained and was hounded by repeated bloggers.

    Then earlier this year Gillard admitted that it wasn’t explained and that was one of the mistakes she made when she took over.]
    LOL!

    So you can only talk about carbon abatement policy for 5 seconds before having to move on and talk about the politics rather than the policy. You truly are a hopeless joke.

    LOL

    [We have the ALP arguing that it is push factors not pull factors causing asylum seekers to rock up in Australia.]
    Well actually it argued it was both, but don’t let facts get in the way of your bullshit.

    [Now we have the ALP bloggers here arguing without a flicker of hesitation, that unless the Coalition support the ALP domestic policy changes Asylum seekers will die on the oceans trying to get here.]
    The only reason the government’s immigration amendment bill passed the parliament yesterday is because the Coalition agreed to support it.

    [So what is it? Push or pull now, or does it depend on what Sussex St tells you to think?]
    How about BOTH!?

    But anyway, the fact you can’t even concentrate on discussing climate change policy for more than 2 posts demonstrates that you don’t have a clue about policy.

  37. My say,
    Your posts are easy to understand, don’t worry about the typing. You are also as entitled to your beliefs as others are to theirs. Mary Mac can be seen as a religious figure by those who wish it or as a woman who chose a way to help others within a structure that supported her desire to do so, when there was very little other chance to remain single and have a career. I have personally known Sisters who devoted their whole lives to such careers and some who left after a few years. I owe a lot to some who were there when I needed help very badly. We know others had very negative experiences, but the ones I met were wonderful. Even outside any religious faith, I would give respect their choice of career.

    So I suggest you keep praying to Mary Mac, and feel comfortable in your own beliefs. Leave others to debate all the different arguments, because discussion and debate are needed, both within and outside the religious areas.

  38. Expat
    Don’t. You know your australian history about. How cou try schools where. Settled
    U weren’t in. Botany bay when cook arrived. Where u

  39. Schnappi, to support Rummel’s excellent venture, choose Marcus Kershaw to support.

    One more time folks that’s http://www.everydayhero.com.au/marcus_kershaw_8 for our fellow pollbludger against leukaemia and for life.

    Donate now, bludgers: you know you want to.

    William, a thought: would it be practical to have a swear jar or similar so that when any of us behave like idiots you could request/require that we donate to the cause of the week as penance?

  40. Mod Lib @ 7128

    We have the ALP arguing that it is push factors not pull factors causing asylum seekers to rock up in Australia.

    Now we have the ALP bloggers here arguing without a flicker of hesitation, that unless the Coalition support the ALP domestic policy changes Asylum seekers will die on the oceans trying to get here.

    So what is it? Push or pull now, or does it depend on what Sussex St tells you to think?

    Has it ever occurred to you that it is a mix of the two?

    And of course entrepreneurial people smugglers who are facilitating the sea journey. Well 95% of them anyway, 5% drown.

    I outlined my views on a solution earlier in dialogue with Psephos.

  41. [Shows On:

    I have no problem with you taking my non response to be an indication of complete and utter surrender to the weight of your argument.]
    Well done! Again you demonstrate that you are completely incapable of discussing the relative merits of different policies.
    [I have seen you in action remember!!!!]
    I have no idea what this means.

    But again, each time you post you just prove that your positions are just determined by idiotic stereotypes of what you think different parties and politicians believe. You never bother to actually consider the relative merits of policies.

  42. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, August 18, 2012 at 12:38 am | Permalink
    Mod Lib:

    What are you going to do when the Liberals lose the next election?

    Given you absent yourself upon favourable Newspolls/weeks for the govt, will you still be commenting here in a losing Liberal election campaign?]

    Did I come here after 2010?

    Did I predict how each of the 6 “independents” would swing?

    Did I condemn the Liberal governments for blocking the NDIS?

    Did I congratulate the Roxon move to plain packaging of ciggies?

    You don’t see it because this is all a football team matter for you (just find some way to make any eventuality a good thing for the ALP).

    Ho hum….

  43. my say:

    Given the disgraceful treatment meted out to you by Expat whoever and his bully boy buddy bemused, I’m cheering that you are still here.

    The best way to beat bullies is to scroll past them and keep on commenting. Ignore their juvenile and sarcastic put down attempts, as it reflects more on them than on you.

    Let me and others take on the misogynist bullies. You just keep commenting.

  44. Confessions… all you seem to want to contribute is a personal attack on whatever flimsy basis you can summon. My prob with mysay is the same. I dont see any moral indignation to someone essentially saying “you dont live here so STFU” from you… is that ok i suppose? The Ron thing was a genuine question not with any malevolent intent.

    And my assumptions around gender – you would be on stronger ground if you didnt couple it with a totally hypocritical assumption around my political allegiance. but i can see that a reasoned discussion with you is a bit of a waste of time… hence the FC comparison, which got at least a laugh as intended. Glass jaw – pot, kettle??

  46. Bob Carr who stated Assange’s unfair position prior to going into govt is now well, less than fully honest about some more unfairness planned for him.

    [AUSTRALIAN diplomats have no doubt the United States is intent on pursuing Julian Assange, Foreign Affairs and Trade Department documents obtained by the Herald show.
    This is at odds with comments by the Foreign Affairs Minister, Bob Carr, who has dismissed suggestions the US plans to eventually extradite Assange on charges arising from WikiLeaks obtaining leaked US military and diplomatic documents.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/us-intends-to-chase-assange-cables-show-20120817-24e1l.html#ixzz23oYxD4S5

    But I don’ think we can expect any honesty from Gillard Labor on this matter given their overly fawning attitude to Obama. Julia enjoys a pat on the head from Obama as much as Howard enjoyed a hug from Bush.

  48. Mod Lib:

    Great, so you’re someone willing to stir the pot in between the elections, yet claims no buy in for the actual result.

    Thanks for clearing that up, it means I can continue ignoring you.

  49. Expat Follower
    People make judgements about other people in history all the time so if My Say wants to take something very positive from the stories of Mary MacKillop then I do not know why she should not.

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