This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Think Oakes nails abbotts character
[Abbott can claim vindication for his policy, but there is a downside for him, too. The Coalition’s preferred position was to keep the government looking paralysed.
What stood out starkly, however, was the unpleasant, savage and poisonous tone of the debate. The attacks on Gillard were particularly vicious. But malice flowed from both sides.
Several MPs I spoke to at week’s end confided that, these days, they feel grubby just being in the parliament.
And the abuse and personal denigration will inevitably get worse as the election approaches. But after that, some degree of decency and civility and trust will need to be restored.
And a non-controversial governor-general embodying those qualities – as Houston appeared to do this week – will be essential to the process.]
spur:
As I recall Bryce’s term expires before the next scheculed election, in which case the current govt will either re appoint her or replace her.
[The Liberal party are a shade better than the ALP in Australia- largely on economic matters.]
LOL! What a load of crap!
The Coalition’s policy position of repealing the carbon tax alone would end up costing the budget tens of billions of dollars in the form of lost revenue and massive expenditure to directly fund carbon abatement.
That is economic vandalism AND idiotic environmental policy.
The reason the Coalition can’t cite a single economist to support its direct action policy is BECAUSE IT DOESN’T MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE, and it completely contradicts the last 30 years of economic reform in Australia.
my say @ 7050
All the assorted shamans, witch doctors, hougans, mambos, priests, saints etc.
Depends if the election is before Sep 5th 2013 I guess.
Quentin Bryce was an outstanding choice.
We mentioned this about Ryan a week ago. RATM’s Tom Morello tears Ryan a new one.
[Paul Ryan has previously cited Rage Against the Machine as his favorite band, but the group’s guitarist isn’t returning the niceties. In a blistering op-ed published Thursday night on Rolling Stone’s website, Tom Morello blasts Mitt Romney’s new VP choice as “the embodiment of the machine our music rages against.”]
Silversun Pickups have also cease-and-desisted Romney.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/17/tom-morello-paul-ryan-rage-against-the-machine_n_1795607.html
Mod, if you can sincerely tell me what Labor economic measures you would unwind – and what stated (!!) Coalition economic measures you would support in their place, then I would listen on substance. The opportunity cost squandered by Howard/Costello over the boom years is really sad… if you reckon good enough notwithstanding, then u cant be too hard on the ALP’s stimulus package by that same standard?
At least we can agree that Republicans are crazy. But their fundamental focus on benefitting corporates and the best off whilst neglecting the majority is truer of the Coalition also… why do you support them in substance here now?
Shows On:
This current LNP leadership is not the finest in the Party’s history!
Hence my oft stated view here that we currently have before us the worst choice of PM, Treasurer and their opposites in modern Australian history.
Is everyone in ‘Holding Pattern’ until Monday night and Newspoll appears to be so?
Going to enjoy dinner tonight with 2 good friends here in Edinburgh.
Diogenes, if you are still around Did you name yourself after Diogenes the Greek Ph who lived about 350bc and was nicknamed ‘the dog’ I have been reading a book over here and this was mentioned, he was mostly naked and the people threw him bones, won’t say what he did to thank them.
[Mod, if you can sincerely tell me what Labor economic measures you would unwind – and what stated (!!) Coalition economic measures you would support in their place, then I would listen on substance.]
Mod Lib doesn’t know anything about economics, so you are fighting a losing battle.
Sorry Puff, this one:
http://www.everydayhero.com.au/marcus_kershaw_8
Fiona, thank you, I know what you mean and I would have been anonymous about the whole thing except (a) I wanted to encourage other bludgers to join in, and I think despite the way some of us including me carry on we are a community here and (b) despite various intemperate posts from me towards Rummel on policy issues I have a lot of time for anyone who is a volunteer fire fighter, having grown up in the blue mountains and thus faced a few fires myself
[Expat Follower
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink
Mod, if you can sincerely tell me what Labor economic measures you would unwind – and what stated (!!) Coalition economic measures you would support in their place, then I would listen on substance.]
PPL and mental health spending at the last election was about it.
[then u cant be too hard on the ALP’s stimulus package by that same standard?]
I have said the stimulus package was good (think I even scored it a credit using the uni ranking system!) Just a tad overdone that is all! Just as the Coalition said at the time.
[At least we can agree that Republicans are crazy.]
Excellent. Some agreement on PB.
[But their fundamental focus on benefitting corporates and the best off whilst neglecting the majority is truer of the Coalition also… why do you support them in substance here now?]
When the LNP argues to repeal Medicare, increase taxes on the poor, remove taxes on the rich, talk openly about not paying off its debt and giving the world the bird, then you can claim equivalence between the Republicans and the LNP.
The trouble with the LNP here is they gave TOO MUCH to the middle class, not that they TOOK TOO MUCH from them to give to the billionaires, like the Republicans are planning to do if Romney wins.
mari
Yes, that’s the one.
I’m actually quite a neat person but I loved Diogenes’ honesty.
Actually I prefer Socrates as a philosopher but I thought that would have been presumptuous.
Mod… also, the standard by which you laud Obama’s accomplishments in his first term (he has been mediocre at best) is quite inconsistent to that which you apply to the ALP government since 2007 (actually pretty good in substance). Both have political ineptitude seemingly in common. One has a far better reelection case than the other, not just on policy but also when comparing to the alternative on offer…
[Shows On:
This current LNP leadership is not the finest in the Party’s history!
Hence my oft stated view here that we currently have before us the worst choice of PM, Treasurer and their opposites in modern Australian history.]
This has nothing to do with the fact that Labor’s economic policies are far superior to the Coalition’s.
Tony Abbott wants us to believe that he and a bunch of bureaucrats can pick and choose tens of billions of dollars worth of carbon abatement projects more effectively than the operation of the market!
If that is true, why have the carbon abatement projects over the last decade cost the economy something like $100 billion which has been passed on as higher costs for consumers?
[The trouble with the LNP here is they gave TOO MUCH to the middle class]
this i gotta hear… pls elucidate?
Mod Lib @ 7058
You surely jest!
Whatever Gillards deficiencies she is a mile in front of Abbott.
And while Swan may not be the worlds greatest communicator, he has the runs on the board as Treasurer.
On the other side you have? Abbott 😆 Hockey 😆 Robb 😆 Bishop 😆 Pyne 😆 Dutton 😆
[PPL and mental health spending at the last election was about it.]
The Coalition’s mental health policy at the last election was based on cutting funding from other areas of health.
There wasn’t an single extra cent for health. Just shifting the same money from one thing to another.
if you dont agree that Julia is way behind and not especially liked, then i wonder which country you live in? Expat
I actually live. Here
More than. You cansay
With. Respect don’t believe all you read.
Have. More faith
The. Media say julia is. Not liked
Tne only. People i know. Of and i discusd it a lot
Is bemused, spurr. and now your self, fromwnat you?write
In. The long run its. Polucies,
PeopLe where. No. Kedn. On. P. JJ k
The. Year of the. Sweetest victory. Of. All
I suggest. You. Cannot know your. Country unless. U. Live in it
A d. Not chose to. Live elsewhere
Obama has been trying to negotiate with a party that thinks its OK for the US to go into default.
Obama has been trying to manage an economy that is drowning in debt, but he cannot get agreement from the other side that the ultra rich should contribute to the budget revamp in any way at all.
The LNP has been arguing that Gillard cannot do the exact opposite of the things she said a few months or a year or so ago and get away with it. She has flip-flopped all over the place.
If you say all that matters is that there is a workable, functional policy at the end, so be it, but that is a far far lower bar than was used for any previous Australian PM.
Why does Gillard deserve special treatment?
this should be part of labor and the greens campaign
from a great facebook page
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Tony-Abbott-is-a-Wanker/223872104289551
[I have said the stimulus package was good (think I even scored it a credit using the uni ranking system!) Just a tad overdone that is all! Just as the Coalition said at the time.]
LOL! The Coalition didn’t offer a single amendment to the second stimulus package when it was put to parliament, instead they voted against the entire package!
If that policy was followed, Australia would’ve gone into recession.
It is idiotic for you and the Coalition to say that the government spent too much in hindsight, when it was the Coalition’s policy to not spend anywhere near enough, and thus put the country into recession.
If the government’s policy was a Credit, the Coalition’s was worth at best a Fail.
I. Hate to. Tell. Dio
But. I. Thought it. Was
A martian. From. The. Old t v. Show
[this i gotta hear… pls elucidate?]
Howard spent billions on middle class welfare to shore up his support.
arrickville Mauler
Rummel seems to have gone, although did receive his email address.
Might change my mind and give all my details to donate.
Mind telling who i sponser , to sponser rummel.
So. Obviously. From what. U. Say
The. Labor party have. Done more than the democrats then
But. You still have. To. Criise julia
I reslly hope u stay in the. Good old. Usa
[Obama has been trying to negotiate with a party that thinks its OK for the US to go into default.]
How is that different to the Coalition here suspending standing orders during debate on a budget bill because they wanted to vote against an increase to the debt limit?
The debt limit was being increased because an independent report recommended the government sell extra bonds to ensure liquidity of the bond market, but the Coalition here starting crapping on by a bunch of Republicans by pretending that this meant that the government was somehow going broke.
[The LNP has been arguing that Gillard cannot do the exact opposite of the things she said a few months or a year or so ago and get away with it. She has flip-flopped all over the place.]
Oh, you mean like how all Coalition MPs elected in 2007 were elected on a platform of supporting a price on carbon, but then nearly all of them voted against it?
There’s actually 14 Coalition Senators still in the Senate who were elected in 2007 on a carbon pricing platform who have voted against bills to achieve that objective on 4 occasions!!!
Why don’t you talk about those MPs flip flopping all over the place?
[If you say all that matters is that there is a workable, functional policy at the end, so be it, but that is a far far lower bar than was used for any previous Australian PM.]
Well YEAH!, Getting good policies enacted is actually far more important than individual politicians!!!
Mysay, what kind of Pauline Hanson xenophobic trash is that? What an argument… I live here but you dont, so i am right. Pathetic.
Mod – Obama on Guantanamo, earmarks, special deals to pass Medicare bill, extending Bush tax cuts, Bowles-Simpson…. the list goes on an on backflips – does he deserve special treatment?
No, but he is better than the alternative. He wins office but forced to compromise/negotiate out of legislative reality… sound familiar at all?
I’ll take workable functional policy over opportunistic carpet-bagging with no substantive alternative… won’t you?
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/windsor-indicates-he-has-abbott-on-record-20120817-24efi.html
Bemused
I. Dare u. To. Read marys site.
Find. Out about the schools that where. Set up
Then find out about her. Legacy
Then u. May become i formed
Showson, i think you pinpoint much of the double standard pretty well. Mod, its all about personality with you methinks!
my say @ 7080
So she did some good stuff in her life. That’s good and I can accept that without believing any of the voodoo stuff about her.
Sorry, but I am just not into ignorant superstition.
is mysay a reincarnation of Ron by any chance?
[Mod – Obama on Guantanamo, earmarks, special deals to pass Medicare bill, extending Bush tax cuts, Bowles-Simpson…. the list goes on an on backflips – does he deserve special treatment?]
I give you some of this, but the difference is that Obama didn’t say
“I want to expand healthcare”
then
“I am going to narrow healthcare”
and then
gets a bill through to expand healthcare.
Gillard has said (or been a senior minister in a govt that said):
“Carbon pricing is the greatest moral challenge of our time”
then
“Lets put everything on hold for 3 years”
then
“Lets have a community forum to decide what to do”
then
“No lets not”
then
“There will be no carbon tax under a government I lead”
then a couple of months later
“The government I lead will be introducing a carbon tax”
Thats the point. Obama managed the situation he faced, but he did not do it by jettisoning everything he stood for. He just got through as much of the healthcare he could.
Was it a good package?
Nup.
[is mysay a reincarnation of Ron by any chance?]
No, all of my say’s posts are just really weird haiku.
Don’t. Put. Me in. Your. Imaginary. Basket p,ease
I am. Married. To a refugee of. The seco d world war
And voted labor all my life since oh. Won the raffle to
For National
sevice.
Expat Follower @ 7083
No, but I think they are closely related.
Ron is the articulate and coherent one.
Only leaves labor Malaysia, or libs tow the boats.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/detention-facilities-packed-to-the-rafters/story-e6freuy9-1226452926170
[Outspoken independent MP Tony Windsor has hinted he has proof to back up his very public claims about Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s behaviour during post-election negotiations in 2010, on his phone.
But Mr Windsor says he is not ready to release it.]
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/windsor-indicates-he-has-abbott-on-record-20120817-24efi.html#ixzz23oR7wQyJ
There will be MOAR it would seem.
[Expat Follower
Posted Saturday, August 18, 2012 at 12:04 am | Permalink
Showson, i think you pinpoint much of the double standard pretty well. Mod, its all about personality with you methinks!]
So let me get this straight, you think the Australian LIberal Party is equivalent to the US Republican party eh?
Well. If. U. Think she did. Good stuff don’t. Use tne word. Fraud
Marrickville Mauler,
Indeed: I think that Rummel is a wonderful person – and I have every admiration for him, as I do for all volunteer people who put ther well-being (and lives) on the line daily and without thought of thanks.
BK, Rummel, if you are listening – THANK YOU.
Diogenes you are right about your namesake, so you would know what he did to thank the people for the bones they threw to him, it was so interesting, perhaps Socrates was the better one but he was very straightforward, so not a bad choice.
[is mysay a reincarnation of Ron by any chance?]
What a stupid comment.
Are you a reincarnation of the buffoon bemused by any chance?
my say @ 7091
The fraud is perpetrated by others with bizarre supernatural claims.
Do you have anything against Carbon Pricing per se, Mod… or is it just that Gilliard said she wouldnt do it but then did that bugs you? Which is the more important objection.
Obama said in a debate “the problem with healthcare in this country is not that people dont want health insurance but that they cant afford it” – he opposed Hilary on the mandate then supported it whilst doing NOTHING to reduce healthcare premium costs themselves. A good package – nup.
Carbon Pricing a bad package on substantive reality – nup
U r drinking some serious koolaid if u really believe some of the stuff u r spinning here!!
I presume Mysay was around when Mary McKillop did her dastardly deeds – if not, then he has no standing to pass any judgements on her LOL
[Thats the point. Obama managed the situation he faced, but he did not do it by jettisoning everything he stood for. He just got through as much of the healthcare he could.]
And didn’t Gillard change her position given the changing circumstances that she faced, i.e. the fact she was now P.M. of a minority government?
If you cared to listen to Tony Windsor on Thursday, you would know that it was a CONDITION of forming government that there would have to be a carbon price of some sort in order for Windsor, Oakeshott, and Bandt to support one major party or the other.
So Gillard had no choice but to change her pre-election position.
As Windsor pointed out on Thursday, if Tony Abbott was to become PM HE WOULD’VE HAD TO DO EXACTLY THE SAME!!!!!!!!!!!!
[Was it a good package?
Nup.]
LOL! Care to elaborate?
How is it better than what existed before it?
Insurance companies being able to discrimination against people with pre-existing conditions.
Insurance companies allowed to kick people off their parent’s insurance plans as soon as they turn 18.
Insurance companies allowed to increase premiums as soon as someone makes an insurance claim (which means they weren’t actually selling INSURANCE).
Oh, and guess what, the Republicans OPPOSED THE BILL IN ITS ENTIRETY! They didn’t even propose any amendments to it in the Senate!!!
Sort of like your Coalition friends on the stimulus bills in the Australian Senate! They said it was so terrible, but were too lazy to propose an alternative!!!
[So let me get this straight, you think the Australian LIberal Party is equivalent to the US Republican party eh?]
This would be an ironic comment, right?
This blog contains a link to the letters Pm Gillard and Acting PM Swan sent to Tony Abbott LOTO (and his replies) last December, trying to break the impasse over off-shore processing.
Reading them again reminds me of what an arrogant evil little man that maggot Abbott really is.
Whose. Ron
Well i am. My own worst. Enemy of. Course
This. Place just puts. Up my blood pressure
And. If being. Loyal. To The p m
And the party i. Respect.
Well so. Be. It
Better tha n. Being. The other way,
Think its. Time to take the pledge
For my healths. Sake
We. Just don’t need negstive vibes