James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.
Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
Also:
• The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.
• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.
• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.
UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.
FB @ 3242,
My respect for teachers grows ever higher.
[Portman or Pawlenty are the best bets as VP. Rubio, Christie or Ryan would be gifts for the Democrats.]
Rubio was the favourite early on, for obvious reasons. However, there is a risk he could be a Palin. Also, it’s doubtful he wants the gig as he has more to lose than gain from it (he can probably climb the ladder on his own). Also, it was doubtful that Romney ever seriously considered him, because, as the next point demonstrates:
[Problem with Portman and Pawlenty is that they won’t energise the Repug base and Romney won’t either.]
Romney is not a risk-taker. He wants someone boring. He really represents the ultimate maxim: “If you think the country is in the wrong hands, I am a safe alternative. If not, stick with him, as I don’t offer anything new.”
2 years ago, Romney would’ve been unstoppable. Now, as the economy improves, he is seen as dull and uninteresting. However, he will always play by that strategy. His VP pick should reflect that.
Puff
Saw that, never heard of any sport playing off to finish fith
Apparently
I wonder what Portos and Aramis are doing.
[Feel free to be balanced.]
Am I not?
😉
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/311458,internode-exetel-enter-telstra-greenfields-game.aspx
Harrumph! Glad that Telstra isn’t rolling out the NBN.
I cannot see how this:
is anything other than Telstra being a complete ar#sehole of a company and screwing people just because they can.
poroti
[Women’s 470s ? Sheepen Sheepen Sheepen .]
In boats?
As NZ ‘kinky as’!
🙂
Mod Lib
It makes it very easy for Obama to target his campaign. Romney needs to defend NC and at the same time attack VA, FL, OH.
Obama can pick two and concentrate on them, depending on who the Repug VP candidate is.
I would be shocked (pleasantly) if Obama won NC.
He should just poor money into Florida, as he could win that one if he frightened all the oldies telling them what Romney wants to do with Medicaid.
Mod Lib
4 points:
1. I am surprised as a “Liberal”, those matters would be of concern .. how does that fit??? Are you really are social democrat?
2. Apart from war with Iran, which given its world impacts and our slavish obedience to all US mad wars, why do the other policies in US matter to us more than similar policies in the other 200 odd countries in the world? What is our concern for social security in USA but not in Egypt, Greece, China, Indonesia etc?? Totally escapes me.
3. Apart from some small medical reform, on none of the others has Obama made much difference. While painfully dangerous in short term, I think it would be best served if US elected someone like Romney. The Right in USA will do more to bring, eventually, reality to that country, as a reaction. Obama will just muddle through inconsequentially, just prolonging the agony.
4. Obama champions this crazy policy of confronting China and building up the USA as the western Pacific power. Australian politicians have no finesse on foreign policy and will seemingly be prepared to sacrifice Australia’s interests for the USA.
I think one thing Obama supporters do have to be careful of though is not to fall into the trap of thinking that we could see a repeat of 2008. Indiana is definitely not a possibility for Obama this time, NE-02 isn’t either and, despite the attention it recieves, I’d probably write off NC as well. Other than those though, the others are plausible, especially judging by the strong polling the Dems are still getting in Colorado and Nevada (remember, they held out well in 2010) and Virginia has gotten to the point where it’s almost no longer considered Southern, due to its northern liberal influences (especially in the areas near DC)
Shellbell @ 3285,
[Justice Nettle is older than all recent appointments but a very good judge.]
I worked with Geoff Nettle many years ago – before he went to the bar, and then the bench.
A fine lawyer, and a really nice person.
[Carey Moore
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:31 pm | Permalink]
Agree with all of that!
Oz Girls in 470’s
41 seconds in front at race end
GOLD!
[swamprat
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:29 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
4 points:
1. I am surprised as a “Liberal”, those matters would be of concern .. how does that fit??? Are you really are social democrat?]
Are you one of those who thinks that anyone who votes, or has ever voted, for the liberal party is a mean, nasty, evil, mass murdering psychopath?
Hehe;) …how is mysay, come to think of it, haven’t seen a post from her tonight.
[What is our concern for social security in USA but not in Egypt, Greece, China, Indonesia etc?? Totally escapes me.]
Who says it isn’t?
CTar1
Women’s 470’s ? Totally Kiwi Oi Oi Oi.
US Presidents? Smezidents!
They’re universally bad with their adherence to US foreign policy.
whoops that is the Kiwis..
my apologies
[Why anyone would get excited about Obama winning or losing is beyond me or for that matter be interested in that hollow posturing that passes for US elections is also beyond me.]
My thought is that an Obama win will have a significant effect on the Australian political scene.
There is no doubt that there is a strong link between the US republicans and the Australian coalition and that many of the US extreme right or tea party ideas have been imported into Australia. An Obama win (and if accompanied by Democrat gains in Congress) will put a severe brake on the influence of the extreme right. The power of Murdoch’s Fox will be diminished.
This must spill over to Australia to some extent. We are likely to see some of the extreme right views currently imported from the US being curtailed and this will have an effect particularly on the forces influencing the Coalition.
poroti
That’s show us the ‘sheep’!
And some.
I wouldn’t write off NC.
The polls are basically level.
The more time Romney needs to spend in NC, the less he can spend in FL, OH and VA.
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/north-carolina.html
Ah, structural realism, bane of my existence!
fiona – That’s ‘Gouffrey’ is it?
paddy 2, easy mistake to make. Look for red stars not the Southern Cross.
Dio, don’t get me wrong, if Obama can make Romney work for NC or even win it, then great, but he shouldn’t too much money there when there are more important states to win. NC was considered a bonus in 2008. He can win without it.
Mod Lib @ 3515
[Are you one of those who thinks that anyone who votes, or has ever voted, for the liberal party is a mean, nasty, evil, mass murdering psychopath?]
Pretty well yes.
A minor anecdote, I was recently arguing with a very right wing person who “believed” Alleluia! that ALP ALWAYS took more taxes than LIbs. When I showed him Treasury figures, comparing Howard Gov against current Gov, his answer: “Oh those a weasel facts, they are not real”!! Maybe as a Lib you could explain this irrationality.
[What is our concern for social security in USA but not in Egypt, Greece, China, Indonesia etc?? Totally escapes me.
Who says it isn’t?]
Well, I say it isn’t. I have seen 1,000’s of discussions on here of US electoral policies rarely any on any other country. It can’t be because it is more meaningful or interesting. I assume it’s because of the Medja Hoopla.
[He can win without it.]
The way I would put it is that if Obama wins NC, there is no point adding up the ECVs from other states, he is going to romp it in!!!!
Thanks Grey,
To omptimistic!
Good to see the 470 guys win.
[Are you one of those who thinks that anyone who votes, or has ever voted, for the liberal party is a mean, nasty, evil, mass murdering psychopath?]
Are you, or have you ever been, a member of …
If Scorps has it right …
Happy Birthday, dear Daretotread.
[swamprat
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib @ 3515
Are you one of those who thinks that anyone who votes, or has ever voted, for the liberal party is a mean, nasty, evil, mass murdering psychopath?
Pretty well yes.]
Haha! At least you are honest!
[A minor anecdote, I was recently arguing with a very right wing person who “believed” Alleluia! that ALP ALWAYS took more taxes than LIbs. When I showed him Treasury figures, comparing Howard Gov against current Gov, his answer: “Oh those a weasel facts, they are not real”!! Maybe as a Lib you could explain this irrationality.]
I am not a big fan of right wingers, as some here have probably worked out by now.
I am not a big fan of left wing haters either, but that seems to perplex some here.
[The way I would put it is that if Obama wins NC, there is no point adding up the ECVs from other states, he is going to romp it in!!!!]
Exactly! It’s a “Labor winning Wentworth”/”Coalition winning Kingsford-Smith” scenario
[What is our concern for social security in USA but not in Egypt, Greece, China, Indonesia etc?? Totally escapes me.
Who says it isn’t?
Well, I say it isn’t. I have seen 1,000′s of discussions on here of US electoral policies rarely any on any other country. It can’t be because it is more meaningful or interesting. I assume it’s because of the Medja Hoopla.]
I was one of those here with Gus et al, late one night when the Arab spring came to Egypt. We discussed the prospects for the people to have a better life at the time if I recall.
Where is said Gus?
Come back Gus, we miss you…
Mod Lib
I should not have said “right winger”, I meant a mainstream Liberal voter, which to me is the same thing.
[swamprat
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:52 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
I should not have said “right winger”, I meant a mainstream Liberal voter, which to me is the same thing.]
You think Australia has 7 million right wing voters?
Is it hard being an Australian when you hate so many of your fellow Australians as an ALP voter?
I don’t feel the need to justify discussing a political system I have spent more than a decade studying, simply because a few chip crumb covered keyboard experts feel upset because a blog told them that the country in question is full of fascists, or whatever the profound insight is.
And hey, if you want to discuss another country’s domestic politics, go for it. I’m up for it. I may not have much knowledge of it but I am a fast learner and will try to catch up ASAP.
Mod Lib @ 3537
[You think Australia has 7 million right wing voters?]
yes
[Is it hard being an Australian when you hate so many of your fellow Australians as an ALP voter?]
No.
I do not “hate” them. Most of them are ignorant people manipulated by the media and right-wing Liberal politicians. As they say: not all conservatives are ignorant but all ignorant men are conservative.
I am not an ALP “voter”
CTar1,
[That’s ‘Gouffrey’ is it?]
Que?
The US election is a traditional PB activity. It’s got great psephological interest.
Rudd vs Gillard, Labor vs Lib, Labor vs Greens are high voltage battles but they pale into insignificance compared to the Armageddon that was Obama vs Hillary.
[That’s ‘Gouffrey’ is it?]
The young tyrant king from Game of Thrones?
[but they pale into insignificance compared to the Armageddon that was Obama vs Hillary.]
Were there any Edwards people? 😆
[I don’t feel the need to justify discussing a political system I have spent more than a decade studying, simply because a few chip crumb covered keyboard experts feel upset because a blog told them that the country in question is full of fascists, or whatever the profound insight is]
I miss Don Dunstan.
Bemused @ 2967,
(well, it’s taken me a while to catch up today – spent most of it in bed feeling crook, then my computer was attacked by two trojans within five minutes of my logging on…)
[Joe Hockey on ABC 774.
Should be some amusement come from this.]
I listened to the last bit of the “interview” and promptly phoned 774 to ask whether it was really Mr Hockey, because to me he sounded more like Barnaby Joyce.
The young woman who took my call roared with laughter …
[I miss Don Dunstan]
Moi aussi!
[I don’t feel the need to justify discussing a political system I have spent more than a decade studying, simply because a few chip crumb covered keyboard experts feel upset because a blog told them that the country in question is full of fascists, or whatever the profound insight is]
I miss Don Dunstan. Is it true that Norwood is going to be renamed Dunstan?
Flawed, like us all, brave, like hardly anyone.
Diogenes @ 3542
[The US election is a traditional PB activity. It’s got great psephological interest.
Rudd vs Gillard, Labor vs Lib, Labor vs Greens are high voltage battles but they pale into insignificance compared to the Armageddon that was Obama vs Hillary.]
What an absurd un-measureable thing to say!!! How in god/dog’s name can the contest between obama and clinton have any significance to absolutely anything? Vacuousness V. vacuousness.
Carey
[Were there any Edwards people? 😆 ]
Certainly was. Ron was an Edwards man.
I tried explaining to Ron that it wouldn’t be a great idea to to nominate a lying douchebag who had cheated on his wife who was dying of breast cancer but Ron didn’t believe me.