James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.
Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
Also:
• The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.
• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.
• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.
UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.
CTar:
Porter was a stand-out in an admittedly mediocre Barnett Cabinet.
That said, I’d still rate him as far superior to anything I”ve seen on offer in Newman’s front bench.
confessions
[That said, I’d still rate him as far superior to anything I”ve seen on offer in Newman’s front bench.]
You set a very low bar 😉
confessions – If he’s got a working brain and a sense of the difference between right and wrong then he’ll be an asset in Federal politics regardless of what political party he belongs to.
Too funny. Barnett’s been clipped over the ear re WA electricity prices already.
Power price rise relief in sight
[WA households have likely been spared a $1.9 billion increase to their power prices over the next five years after an important legal victory by a State regulator.
Establishing a precedent that could have national ramifications, the Australian Competition Tribunal has confirmed the WA Economic Regulation Authority’s right to set prices using the Reserve Bank’s five-year bond rate.
The tribunal’s July 26 decision overturns the long-standing practice of using more generous measures to calculate rates of return for regulated energy entities.
The biggest impact of the decision will be on Western Power which had sought an 8.82 per cent rate of return on its $6.5 billion worth of distribution and transmission for the next five years.
Instead the ERA, in a draft decision, used new parameters which mean Western Power’s rate of return will be clipped to 4.73 per cent.
The difference between the two rates of return equate to at least $1.9 billion by 2017.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/14512067/power-price-rise-relief-in-sight/
I met Mathew Belcher once, in 2009. Shook his hand, him and Page are legends in my book.
poroti:
😆
poroti
had to go out for a while.
cheers for your earlier comment.
All good. I knew there must have been some reasonable explanation.
I say we halve the swimmers funds and give the money to the sailors.
Olympics – the Serpentine!
Don’t feed the F@#king swans.
Go Ky
Think this match is for the bronze
AOC@AUSOlympicTeam
Another goal to the Hockeyroos! Up 2-0 v China with 9 minutes left
dio
I am with you on that.
kezza2
[I knew there must have been some reasonable explanation.]
Cow cockies are saints.End of 🙂 . Now as for Uncle Colin,the accidental premier, he should have been slapped around the chops a long time ago re energy prices. Vote 1 Mark McGowan. 🙂
Australia climbing the Lympic Ladder of Love. Just passed Italy.
Channel Nine coverage pathetic. All those digital channels wasted. We could have the hockey and swimming marathon and these gymnastics.
Olypics winding down …
Ribbons entertaining, but.
It’s looking very good for Obama. Even if he loses Colorado (which is a tie at the moment) and falls in Florida and Virginia (where he is ahead), he should still win as he’s comfortably ahead in the blue states.
http://electoral-vote.com/
Diogenes @ 3458
Wait for Olivia and crew, they are freaking people out with the speed and nous they have shown. She is a pup, but she is creaming the best in the world.
[Channel Nine coverage pathetic. All those digital channels wasted. We could have the hockey and swimming marathon and these gymnastics.]
But Eddie couldn’t do all three channels at once!
Bk
I would not be so sure about that. 🙂
Schnappi
[Think this match is for the bronze]
It’s for 5th vs 6th.
Women’s 470 class final race. Some Antipodean solidarity please. If the Sheepens finish ahead of the Pomgolians they win gold goold gold.
Dio – Even more so if Ditt has to have Paul Ryan as his VP candidate.
[Diogenes
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 9:56 pm | Permalink
It’s looking very good for Obama. Even if he loses Colorado (which is a tie at the moment) and falls in Florida and Virginia (where he is ahead), he should still win as he’s comfortably ahead in the blue states.]
I have done lots of permutations of this and I cant see how Obama can lose if he wins one of Ohio, Virginia or Florida.
He just needs to win one of those and Romney can’t win (I think).
In fact, there are ways Obama can reach 270 ECVs even if he loses all those three, but it would be very tricky!
snap
No, hockeyroos won but it was match for 5th place.
How long to go until the Olympics concludes?
come on enzeders!
[It’s looking very good for Obama. Even if he loses Colorado (which is a tie at the moment) and falls in Florida and Virginia (where he is ahead), he should still win as he’s comfortably ahead in the blue states.]
It’s a bit hard to gauge support at this point. Usually, you need to wait until the conventions are over (a few more weeks) to get the true picture. Things like Romney’s VP pick, as well as the Summer ending and people paying attention again may change things.
However, for what its worth, if Romney brings the game he has brought thus far into the Autumn months, then he may be in trouble, especially if Obama hammers him for his financial past (exploiting Romney’s strength as a weakness).
QANTAS ad. Clips of Olympics Aussies training. Switch to fade away Qantas jet and the slogan “You’re the reason we fly”. What utter corporate crap. Do they think we are stupid or what!?
[ have done lots of permutations of this]
Have you tried this ‘scientific’ method on Talcum lately?
Google it confessions.
fess
Sunday
That is when they have the closing ceremony, a practise which, btw, Australia started in the 1956 Melbourne Olympics.
All you want to know, or not http://www.london2012.com/schedule-and-results/
[I have done lots of permutations of this and I cant see how Obama can lose if he wins one of Ohio, Virginia or Florida.]
Romney needs Ohio to win. No ifs, buts or maybes about it. No Republican has won without it. Which is why Senator Rob Portman is the favourite to be Romney’s VP pick.
[CTar1
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:03 pm | Permalink
have done lots of permutations of this
Have you tried this ‘scientific’ method on Talcum lately?]
Unlike many here who see the world as they wish it were, I am a realist.
No matter how much I would like it, Turnbull cannot take the Lib leadership while Abbott is so far ahead on the TPP count.
Abbott will remain ahead on the TPP count while Gillard leads the ALP.
I have long since passed the anger and denial stages and have reached the equipoise of acceptance.
There are others here who should try a little of that too IMO ! 🙂
Next two days is diving. Mathew Mitcham defending his gold performance at Beijing.
Puff:
This Sunday? Awesome.
Thanks for that.
Ducky:
Thanks also for your link.
That Olympic web site is excellent; eg, you can follow progress of the 470s on http://www.london2012.com/sailing/event/470-women/phase=saw005101/index.html
[Carey Moore
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:05 pm | Permalink
I have done lots of permutations of this and I cant see how Obama can lose if he wins one of Ohio, Virginia or Florida.
Romney needs Ohio to win. No ifs, buts or maybes about it. No Republican has won without it. Which is why Senator Rob Portman is the favourite to be Romney’s VP pick.]
If Obama loses Virginia, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa but wins the blue states and Ohio he would be 271 ECV (and President again).
In other words, you are right, it is very hard for Romney to win without Ohio!
Obama can still win, even if he loses Ohio, Virginia and Florida, if he wins Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire (three states he is likely to win actually).
Portman or Pawlenty are the best bets as VP. Rubio, Christie or Ryan would be gifts for the Democrats.
Problem with Portman and Pawlenty is that they won’t energise the Repug base and Romney won’t either.
Abbott will remain ahead on the TPP count while Gillard leads the ALP.
That is not a given.
[Just Me
Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:11 pm | Permalink
Abbott will remain ahead on the TPP count while Gillard leads the ALP.
That is not a given.]
Its just an opinion, but its mine…
Enzedders first. Poms last @ 1:13 at the first mark.
Women’s 470s ? Sheepen Sheepen Sheepen .
[Ducky:]
Great! Now you’ve got me thinking of “Pretty in Pink” 😆
Why anyone would get excited about Obama winning or losing is beyond me or for that matter be interested in that hollow posturing that passes for US elections is also beyond me.
US elections are similar to those many TV “reality” programmes: contrived, boring and full of unattractive and egoistic rich people.
Carey,
Joe in a tutu?
swamprat:
Just little matters of 10million plus poor Americans having health insurance
Whether or not we end up going to war with Iran
The future of social security for poor people in America
Any chance of the US moving on gun control in any meaningful way
Any chance of racial reconciliation between black and white Americans
…just minor matters like that.
ModLib
[while Abbott is so far ahead on the TPP count.]
Talc not yet given up and is having a ‘go’ on international relations at the moment but on domestic politics no one really knows what he stands for .
Maybe a waste or maybe not.
Feel free to be balanced.
TLBD
No Bob Katter see earlier post re Katter in local Mardi Gras.