UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
Braddon/Darwin was held by Labor legend King O’Malley from its creation in 1903 until 1917, and then by conservatives of various stripes until Ron Davies gained it for Labor in 1958. Davies held the seat until 1975, when future Premier Ray Groom’s victory contributed to the first of the Liberals’ clean sweeps. Groom was in turn succeeded upon his move to state politics in 1984 by Chris Miles. The Liberals’ electoral position meanwhile continued to strengthen due to the decline of the area’s key industries and the political upheaval caused by the Franklin Dam controversy.
Braddon’s fortunes changed very suddenly in 1998, when a 10.0% swing made Peter “Sid” Sidebottom the seat’s first Labor member in 23 years. Labor has since been defeated only in 2004, when John Howard’s late-campaign trumping of Mark Latham over forestry jobs fuelled a 7.0% swing that delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Mark Baker. Sidebottom had declined to distance himself from Latham’s policy, unlike Dick Adams in neighbouring Lyons. Endorsed again in 2007, Sidebottom was able to recover the seat with a modest 2.6% swing, before adding a further 5.1% to his margin in 2010. On the former occasion the swing was most strongly concentrated around Smithton, reversing a heavy swing to the Liberals from 2004, while the swing in 2010 was greatest in Devonport and Latrobe.
Sid Sidebottom had been a Central Coast councillor and electorate officer to Senator Nick Sherry before entering parliament, and he returned to the employ of Sherry during the interruption of his parliamentary career from 2004 to 2007. Sidebottom is presently factionally unaligned, but like Sherry was formerly a member of the Centre/Independents faction, known in its Hawke government heyday as the Centre Left. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary after the 2001 election, serving in various permutations of agriculture, resources and fisheries over the ensuing term. It took until November 2011 for him to recover his old status, that month’s reshuffle slotting him into the familiar agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Michael Burr, described by the Burnie Advocate as a high-profile Devonport real estate business owner. Burr won preselection from a field that also included Glynn Williams, a North Motton farmer and lawyer described in the local press as an ultra conservative, and lower-profile local Jacqui Lambie. Burr’s backers reportedly included Senators Richard Colbeck and Stephen Parry, and local state MP Adam Brooks. It was thought that another contender might be Brett Whiteley, who lost his state seat in Braddon at the 2010 election, but he announced in the week before the preselection that he would instead focus on returning to state politics.
OzPol tragic
glad we not mention Kunanurra ,with a full moon and a full esky
[Ridiculous statement!]
[What you are saying is just bizarre.]
[Mark Duckett @MarkRDuckett
“People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use.”- Soren Kierkegaard ]
Hi, Tone. 🙂
[Except in cases of genuine disability]
Disability is no barrier to participation in sport and recreation, as the Paralympics amply demonstrate.
guytaur
There won’t be too many people sad to see Mensch leave the country.
Interestingly she is married to the manager of the Red Hot Chili Peppers.
lizzie:
Has our Tone been caught out plagiarising? 😆
[Carey Moore
Posted Monday, August 6, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink
Here’s a question for you: which culture has had the most corruptive effect on how we speak English and spell its words?]
Was the answer England?
If you are interested, this is the attitude of the Ruddstorationists in it’s essence, via a Direct Message sent to me on Twitter by the organiser of the public campaign to have Rudd restored to the leadership of the federal parliamentary Labor Party. It’s pathetic:
It’s dangerous and delusional stuff, as you can see.
[Has our Tone been caught out plagiarising?]
If he plagiarised Julie Bishop he’d be up for receiving stolen goods!
confessions
I was brought up on a farm and we had unlimited supplies of beef,poultry etc. I totally lurved the tough gristly cuts. Something to sink your fangs into. I was and am totally baffled by the adoration of “melt in your mouth” tender cuts.
[Ah for long ago, on army exercises stayed overnight in rockhampton ,beer called Macs beer,worst piss in the world,and have drank a few]
I’d say that OH agreed with that assessment (we were transferred there for a year); but it’s sadly lacking in integrated Anglo-Saxon obscenities and aspersions cast on a religious founder’s mating activities.
Is anyone old enough to pin down the moment when “gotten” became so popular in Oz? Someone told me that Sydney adopted it first.
Me think me create monster.
[Aoccdrnig to rseerach at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a total mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig huh?
PS: Hwo’d yuo lkie to run tihs by yuor sepll ckehcer?]
Rummel, this is the first time I’ve ever agreed with you.
Either I am mellowing, or you are.
In either case, if that’s the way Liberals spell, then Julia will shit it in next year.
One great thing about Moorooka being Sudanesed and Eritrea’d is we can now buy goat for $8/kg. Now someone’ll have to explain why ‘chèvre’ isnt used in English as a fancy synonym for goat meat, just goat cheese. Were they never raised by poms?
This is the second message from the disgusting little worm:
Who is His Master’s Voice I might add.
[Was the answer England?]
Hehe! I’ll pay that one!
BK:
The plagiariser’s plagiariser?
[Carey Moore
Posted Monday, August 6, 2012 at 7:43 pm | Permalink
Here’s a question for you: which culture has had the most corruptive effect on how we speak English and spell its words?]
Probably Normandy around 1066 BC.
confessions
[Disability is no barrier to participation in sport and recreation, as the Paralympics amply demonstrate.]
Exhibit A NZ archer Neroli Fairhall who won a Gold medal at the 1982 Commonwealth Games and competeed at the Olympics.
confessions
I think Abbott prefers skating around the truth to directly plagiarising someone’s words. If he did that he might accidentally tell the truth, and that would never do!
[Probably Normandy around 1066 BC.]
Battle of Hastings.
Isn’t it amazing how the brain retains useless information, which in my case was learnt some time in the 1970s, yet I forget where I parked the car every now and then!
LARA GIDDINGS IS A LEADER
JULIA GILLARD IS A FOLLOWER
[ShowsOn
Posted Monday, August 6, 2012 at 8:30 pm | Permalink
LARA GIDDINGS IS A LEADER
JULIA GILLARD IS A FOLLOWER]
AND BOTH ARE LOSERS
(oops, did I do a bad?)
So there you go, from the horse’s mouth, proof positive that Rudd and his forces are hell-bent on revenge against the Prime Minister. They’d rather the federal Labor government go down in a screaming heap than see Julia Gillard survive and prosper.
C@tmomma – The last ‘convey’ got lost and ended up at the Tuggeranong shops after claiming to be ‘blocked’ at the border.
Who knows where this lot will end up – TLBD’s or rummel’s place?
[As far as anyone is concerned he(KR) is the real and rightful PM. Julia not just killed the ALP but peoples trust in politics
Direct message sent by BRad – Rudd Factor (@RuddFactor) to you (@HillbillySkill) on Aug 06, 3:50 PM.
It’s dangerous and delusional stuff, as you can see.]
Desperate. I think it becoming very clear people are fed up with Ruddsteration.
(Try sneaking ‘poms’ past a Yankee spellchecker…)
Premier Giddings’ amusing stunt will cause Gillard more grief than itll cause theconservative federalists. My bet* is the Commonwealth will challenge any Tasmanian legislation and the High Court will easily find that the Commonwealth definition of marriage as bloke-Sheila ‘covers the field’ – ie it crowds out any state law trying to broaden the definition.
(*Based on a quick head count of multiple conservative constitutional law heads, and this one non-Tory public lawyer, at work today).
[Exhibit A NZ archer Neroli Fairhall who won a Gold medal at the 1982 Commonwealth Games and competeed at the Olympics.]
As well as countless people (including children and young people) living with disability participating in sport and recreation every day in your community.
And from left field,next Saturday night at theSFS watching the Dragons take down the tiggers, would rather be at ANZ watching The Pies
graham
[One great thing about Moorooka being Sudanesed and Eritrea’d is we can now buy goat for $8/kg. Now someone’ll have to explain why ‘chèvre’ isnt used in English as a fancy synonym for goat meat, just goat cheese. Were they never raised by poms?]
Thought we called goat meat Chevron
[Premier Giddings’ amusing stunt will cause ]
‘Stunt’ is about right – $100m worth of tourism. Riiight.
confessions
[As well as countless people (including children and young people) living with disability participating in sport and recreation every day in your community.]
Exakery. I only mentioned Neroli because she went head to head as a so called “disabled” athlete with “able bodied” athletes and won a Gold Medal.
C@tmomma:
They can post as many hate-filled DMs/Facebook rants/whatever as they like. At the end of the day, they don’t get to elect the leader of the ALP. Elected Labor MPs do.
Let them wail.
[‘Stunt’ is about right – $100m worth of tourism …]
… unless it gets knocked on the head in the High Court.
The Essential poll on Olympics attitudes is truly a watershed survey.
It says essentially that we reckon we don’t care whether we win gold medals or not – AFTER we’ve haven’t won many.
OF COURSE we care about gold medals… until we don’t win any.. then it’s sour grapes…meh… who cares?
It demonstrates an ominous (for Abbott) ability of the Australian punter to adjust to reality.
The particular case I am thinking of is the already documented non-impact of the Carbon Tax.
Inflation is at its lowest for donkey’s years. Economics gurus are “surprised” that carbon pricing hasn’t affected household bottom lines. Hockey may bleat that we’d have deflation if it wasn’t for the CT, but that would be ultra-stupid.
Whatever the Coalition says, the heat has indisputably gone out of The Carbon Tax Debate.
The Carbon Tax is pretty benign after all, just as Gillard assured us it would be.
People are adjusting. Turning off lights, winding down their hot water systems, and their fridges. Using less power. If a small business, they are absorbing the price rises, or compensating. Low inflation is helping us all.
El Nino is about to hit us… droughts will take over from flooding rains. A couple of cyclones and perhaps even talk of water restrictions will sober up the populace into accepting (again, as before) that we need to do something about Global Warming, and in particular need to be seen to be doing something, before we start lecturing the rest of the world.
We have talked the talk, and now we are walking the walk. The punter will accept that, just as he or she accepts that we aren’t going to blitz the gold medal tally board.
Carbon Tax? Meh…
These Games have been brilliant for Labor. They have reminded us that spin does not equal substance. As in the Games, so in the Carbon Tax debate.
I sincerely pray that Abbott keeps on with his “Toxic Tax” mantra for as long as possible, and then a little longer. It’ll save him the trouble of forming policies, and will win Labor the election.
Mod Lib
[(oops, did I do a bad?)]
If you posted something it is safe to assume that it is wrong.
[… unless it gets knocked on the head in the High Court]
You don’t know if you don’t try.
[Classic Four Corners Tonight. Complete with the phrase colourful racing identities.]
Campbell Newman?
Graeme @2327,
Thanks for your post.
Would the Commonwealth automatically have to challenge or could it just choose not to ?
Would it not be more likely a individual or organization / group ( whatever you would like to include ) to challenge in the same way a challenge was made against the school chaplain service ?
Cheers.
[We have talked the talk, and now we are walking the walk. The punter will accept that, just as he or she accepts that we aren’t going to blitz the gold medal tally board.
Carbon Tax? Meh…
These Games have been brilliant for Labor. They have reminded us that spin does not equal substance. As in the Games, so in the Carbon Tax debate.]
Amazing how anything can be spun into good news for Labor!
The fact that the punter can simultaneously say they think the ALP is grand for what it is doing with the NDIS but the Coalition regains ground on the preferred party vote says it all.
The people are deserting the ALP in droves.
Do whatever you like, adopt good policy, win the debate, whatever….the ALP are done under Gillard!
Its all there right before you face if you just open your eyes BB.
poroti:
Indeed. It’s interesting to reflect on language used to describe people living with disability wrt to the whole ‘able-bodied’ vis ‘disabled’ stuff.
I work with a couple of people who use a wheelchair, so our organisation is very aware of the correct use of terminology when referring to people living with a disability, and it just becomes normalised across the organisation.
So I was shocked when I met with that entourage of Liberal MPs and candidates the other week to hear them openly refer to people with disability as ‘disabled’, ‘blind’, ‘deaf’, ‘wheelchair-bound’ etc. It isn’t until you start using appropriate, inclusive language that you recognise the labeling, exclusive language applied to ‘the other’ which is commonly used to refer to those considered ‘different’ to the so-called mainstream.
It’s fascinating.
[ReachTEL @ReachTEL
We’ve just completed our Ashgrove poll with a sample of 661. The (very interesting) results will be released tmrw via @brisbanetimes #qldpol
8:34 PM – 6 Aug 12]
William
[… unless it gets knocked on the head in the High Court.]
I think the $100m of visitors is crap.
Most people, homosexual/lesbian/heterosexual, don’t seem to care much about the ‘marriage’ thing much other than a symbol of equality – travel to Tasmania I doubt it.
ReachTEL tweets the results from its 661-sample poll of Ashgrove are “very interesting”.
Sorry CTar1, I misunderstood your comment.
CTaR. She’s doing this with the ulterior motive of first mover advantage in the Oz pink-wedding market?! And you think that’d not be stunt’d??
[Rummel, this is the first time I’ve ever agreed with you]
It’s ok BB, we all have our weak points.
Lizzie,
[Is anyone old enough to pin down the moment when “gotten” became so popular in Oz?]
Judging by my daughter’s language, I suggest 15 years ago. Though it might be 20, given that Melbourne is behind the times 😉
Confessions,
[… gravy beef …]
Yes indeed – although when I can’t be fagged with all the trimming I opt for chuck/skirt steak – and get my lovely butcher boys to chop it up for me (for an extra $1 per kilo – well worth it).
[ReachTEL tweets the results from its 661-sample poll of Ashgrove are “very interesting”.]
From Michelle Grattan – “Campbell soars in ReachTEL poll, or, on the other hand, tanks”.
[Paul Martin @PG_Martin 13h
Woman falls over in the 400m hurdles & doesn’t finish. Look at her name. You couldn’t make it up… #London2012]
https://mobile.twitter.com/PG_Martin/status/232195649469313024/photo/1