UPDATE (23/7): The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it likely an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking Australian workers would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
UPDATE 2: Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
The inner southern Sydney electorate of Reid covers the southern bank of the Parramatta River from Drummoyne west to Silverwater, extending further south to Burwood, Strathfield, and Auburn. The seat has never been in conservative hands since its creation in 1922, but it became winnable for the Liberals after being transformed by the redistribution before the 2010 election. This caused it to assume about 70% of the voters from its abolished eastern neighbour, Lowe, retaining only the area to the west of Homebush Bay Drive and Centenary Drive, from Silverwater south to Rookwood. It was originally proposed that the redrawn electorate bear the new name of McMahon, in honour of Sir William, but objections to the loss of the name Reid (so named after George Reid, titan of the state’s late colonial free trade forces and the nation’s fourth prime minister) led to the name of McMahon instead being accommodated by renaming the outer western Sydney seat of Prospect.
Lowe was created in 1949 from areas covered by the since-abolished Martin and Parkes (the latter bearing no relation to the current rural electorate of that name), and had a very slight notional Labor margin on its creation. Billy McMahon nonetheless gained the seat for the Liberal Party in 1949 and held it until the end of his career in 1983, withstanding particularly strong Labor challenges in 1961 and 1980. Labor’s Michael Maher won the by-election that followed McMahon’s retirement, and the seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity. Bob Woods won it for the Liberals in 1987, but was weakened by redistribution and then tipped out by a swing to Labor’s Mary Easson in 1993. Paul Zammit regained the seat for the Liberals in the 1996 landslide, but quit the party in protest against the Howard government’s airport policy in 1998. John Murphy was able recover it for Labor in 1998, having won preselection over the rather better credentialled Michael Costello, secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs. Murphy held parliamentary secretary positions from December 2001 until he stood down citing family illness in February 2009, but is perhaps better remembered for complaining in parliament about the size of a serving of beef stroganoff his wife had received from the parliamentary cafeteria.
Reid in its original incarnation covered Bankstown, but it shifted northwards when Blaxland was created in 1949. A member of Jack Lang’s breakaway state ALP branch held the seat from 1931 to 1940, and Lang himself was member for one term after a surprise win under the ALP (Non-Communist) banner in 1946. Lang unsuccessfully contested Blaxland in 1949, and Reid was recovered by Charles Morgan, the previous member whom Lang had unseated. Morgan lost preselection at the 1958 election to Tom Uren, a future minister in the Whitlam and Hawke governments, who was in turn succeeded by Left potentate Laurie Ferguson in 1990. When the redistribution was announced in 2009 it was thought a preselection showdown loomed between Murphy and Ferguson, but it soon became apparent Ferguson’s eyes were set on Fowler to the west, and he was eventually accommodated in its southern neighbour Werriwa. Murphy meanwhile retained preselection for Reid unopposed, and went on to have his margin slashed from 10.8% to 2.7% at the 2010 election as part of a backlash against Labor throughout Sydney.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Craig Laundy, heir to and general manager of his father’s “$500 million hotel empire”, who won an April 2012 preselection with backing from Tony Abbott. Laundy’s main rival for the preselection was Dai Le, an ABC Radio National producer and two-time state candidate for Cabramatta.
WTF is Pyne talking about. I see, JWH was GOOD!
Danny,
You would love going fishing with Puffy.
Finns!!!
You are one norty dolphin 😉
Caro is just so, so FULL of herself!
bemused
We discovered, accidentally, that the Greens have, as a policy measure, decided to close down Olympic Dam Mine when they gain government. Poroti that is $1.5 trillion down the gurglur.
TLBD: I think it would be extremely hilarious to go fishing with Puffy and watch her catch a Puffer Fish 😉
We are all cool and comfy in QandA, aren’t we! Who cares about a murder or a thousand!
The US has God and Guns. The perfect storm.
Oh, oh. Now the kaka has hit the fan.
The F,B,F&Co Mining Division are having an almighty blue with the F,B,F&Co Greens Division.
Danny,
Puffy is the goods!
Pyne – what can one say about this man?
He is a man?
WHERE DID THIS COME FROM
Latika Bourke @latikambourke
Senator Pyne!!!!
You could call him the Human Vuvuzela BK, but I think that title is taken.
This little black duck,
[scorpio,
You, BK, Danny and me? ]
Not quite with you.
Are there any e-mail addresses that people would like me to pass on if Bilbo is a bit busy to oblige?
[to go fishing with Puffy and watch her catch a Puffer Fish ]
Danny Boy, $100 per plate, 10 slices
Does he know what “less teachers” means. obviously doesn’t know when to use “less” and “fewer”.
Teachers must be a mass.
Boerwar
[September 27, 2007
BHP Billiton is sitting on more than $1 trillion worth of copper, uranium and gold at its gigantic Olympic Dam deposit in South Australia, after yesterday reporting a near doubling in ore resources.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/trillion-dollar-mine-for-bhp/story-e6frg9df-1111114511131
scorpio,
Good offer but Bilbo rules the interactions.
[I meant the Opposition being in cahoots with the media.]
Danny:
No probs.
I’m still thinking Pyne, so to that end, should Pyne resign a) will he stay in parliaent but on the crossbench, and b) if he departs altogether then Labor has sod all chance winning his seat in a by election, so…..?
Could not resist
Schnappi@Schnappi5
@latikambourke Were you immunised before trying to ask pyne a question,he and abbott has the runs disease
Fran Burrow is not in attendance, obviously.
Confessions,
Abject selfishness?
Perhaps, but more aptly abject stupidity.
And I hope that they endure their guilt all their days.
Geesus would someone just shut Pyne up.
Simon S is building up to (metaphorically) clobber Pyne.
This little black duck
Kukul mas ? Mmmmm yummy.
Which poll is next due and when?
The only betting move of note, in a market with extremely very little interest is for… drum roll… you are not going to believe it…
Cossie to lead the Fibs at the election 😆
poroti
The Greens policy bans prospecting for uranium. So, under the Greens policy, the $50 million that BHP just spent on expanding the Roxby reserve would be illegal.
Here is another policy conundrum. If you accidentally but illegally find uranium while you are looking for copper, will the Greens government jail you?
QandA is a pantomime, a very unfunny one.
The thirty seconds of unscripted are not worth the viewing.
It is not a terrible discussion on teaching.
yep fishing this weekend is good
sunday is better for me.
poroti,
You need to ask the chicken-wingers in the AFL.
[poroti
Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 9:52 pm | Permalink
Boerwar
September 27, 2007
BHP Billiton is sitting on more than $1 trillion worth of copper, uranium and gold at its gigantic Olympic Dam deposit in South Australia, after yesterday reporting a near doubling in ore resources.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/trillion-dollar-mine-for-bhp/story-e6frg9df-1111114511131 ]
Wonder if Access Economics have caught up with the news?
confessions @ 2422
For once I am in furious agreement with you!
I have previously commented that failure to vaccinate IS child abuse and I would add that if a child dies as a consequence, it should be seen as negligent homicide at least.
It is not selfishness on the part of the parents, if is high level stupidity.
Pyne on QandA is like bed bugs in a hostel.
DL @ 2430,
eeek, the speeed of PB now:
[Basically it is a lot of he said/he said; most of which seems to revolve around whether the witness believes Dr Koprowski to be a madman or a genius.]
Well, I would be mean to him and ask him to do what the Oz scientists did with respect to myxomatosis, or more pertinantly, the work that Barry Marshall and Robin Warren did.
Boerwar
I was a lab rat tangentally associated with the Olypmic Dam project.The numbers are truly mind boggling. Things like $3 billion dollars of diesel. Things like a million tons of over burden a day for three years. Things like equipment needed equal to the entire output of Caterpillar for a couple of years. Before it even kicks off !!!
Pyne citing a survey used at Sydney Institute. That’s the problem right there!
Pyne’s recent comments on class sizes are being used to deliberately muddy the waters of all of the issues. If you say “CLASS SIZES HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON OUTCOMES” enough times, in every sentence, without listening to anyone else, you win the argument because everyone else just gives up.
For every kid who dies as a result of lack of vaccination, those dangerous nut jobs in avn should be charged.
Good company on a cold night?
poroti
[I was a lab rat tangentally associated with the Olypmic Dam project.The numbers are truly mind boggling. Things like $3 billion dollars of diesel. Things like a million tons of over burden a day for three years. Things like equipment needed equal to the entire output of Caterpillar for a couple of years. Before it even kicks off !!!]
Excellent.
We’ll put you down for one of the Greens government job creation schemes. I imagine that you will get some integrity re-education and will be directed to plant organic, GMO-free, native trees somewhere.
fiona:
Certainly stupidity. But also selfishness. These parents were usually beneficiaries of immunisation, yet choose to deny these benefits to their children.
I despair!!
GD
[Wonder if Access Economics have caught up with the news?]
They may have access to gina ,clive and twiggy, but bhp,rio tinto,xtrada and others would not give them the time of day let alone a financial forcast
[Fran Burrow is not in attendance, obviously.]
Yes, the thought police are not around 🙂
Newspoll
2PP: 56-44
Primaries: Coalition 46 ALP 28, GRN 11
Access Economics does not have to be right, just being in Teh News!
Do your job, Jones, and shut the annoying little prat up!!!!
http://www.bedbugcentral.com/bedbugs101/topic.cfm/biology-behavior
Bed bugs are primarily nocturnal insects that feed exclusively on blood
Adult females can lay 1-5 eggs per day
Eggs hatch approximately 7-10 days after being deposited by the female
Development from egg hatch to adult takes approximately 1 ½ -2 months but can take longer depending upon environmental conditions and food availability
Individual bed bugs do not seek a blood meal everyday and may go several days to a week or more between each blood meal.
Bed bugs are believed to be mostly inactive between blood meals, hiding in their secretive resting places
Bed bugs are not limited to the bed or the bedroom but instead will disperse throughout a dwelling
Bed bugs are very resilient and can easily survive for several months or more without a blood meal
[2489
gloryconsequence
Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 10:02 pm | Permalink
Pyne’s recent comments on class sizes are being used to deliberately muddy the waters of all of the issues. If you say “CLASS SIZES HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON OUTCOMES” enough times, in every sentence, without listening to anyone else, you win the argument because everyone else just gives up.]
Well that’s a shame.
I would have thought that calling him out on the lie was the answer. I mean, it’s not as if the data isn’t out there. The load been numerous studies since the sixties on the topic of class sizes and my understanding is that they show a more or less direct correlation between smaller class sizes and better outcomes.
You’ve just got to shove the facts down his yapping throat.