The always reliable James J relates in comments that the latest Newspoll result is 56-44, with primary votes of 31% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s ratings have gone backwards, her approval down three to 27% and disapproval up two to 61%, and her 39-38 lead as preferred prime minister last time has become a 39-36 deficit. Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 32% and down one on disapproval to 57%. UPDATE: Newspoll also reports 32% find Labor most to blame for the asylum seeker impasse against 28% for the Coalition and 16% for the Greens; 66% believe Labor at least partly to blame against 60% for the Coalition and 57% for the Greens; and 37% think the Coalition best to handle the asylum seeker issue (down 10% on last time), with Labor on 17% (down 4%) and “others” on 13% (up 1%).
The weekly Essential Research poll also has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44, where it has been for six successive weeks, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (down a point for the second week in a row), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 11% for the Greens (up one). There are further questions in asylum seekers, of which the most illuminating is the findings that 60% believe the government is too soft, the carbon tax (31% say they have noticed an increase in costs, 54% say they haven’t) and the European economic crisis. We have also had Roy Morgan publish results from its last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying, which interestingly shows the Greens up 4.5% to 14.5%, their best result since February and equal best result ever from this series. Both parties are down on the previous fortnight, Labor by 3% to 29.5% and the Coalition 2.5% to 45.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is down from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on previous election preferences, but up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.
Developments:
• NSW ALP state secretary Sam Dastyari will present a motion to the party’s state conference on the weekend calling for the party to put the Greens behind the Coalition on preferences at the federal election. Despite the focus of some news reports, this would mean little with respect to the lower house: Labor can be relied on to make the final count in all seats which matter to the Greens, meaning their preferences are not distributed (the key question remains what the Liberals will do, which will most likely be to follow the Victorian party’s example at the state election and put them last). However, it could come at a very high cost to Labor as well as the Greens by delivering to the Coalition Senate seats which would otherwise stay “left”. In 2010 the Greens polled well enough that would have won seats in each state in any case, having scored quotas in their own right in Victoria and Tasmania, and close enough to it elsewhere that preferences from left-wing micro-parties would have make up the difference. However, it would only take a gentle swing to cost them seats in New South Wales and Western Australia without Labor preferences, which on anything like present form would mean results in those states of four seats for the right against two for Labor (as well as making life all but impossible for the Greens in South Australia, given the complication of Nick Xenophon).
• The most excellent pseph blog Poliquant has analysed the likely impact of Labor preferencing the Greens list with reference to current state-level opinion polling, which suggests it would result in 4-2 rather than 3-3 left-right splits in Western Australia and possibly New South Wales, and that a 4-2 split looms in Queensland regardless of preferences. In each case, one of the four right-wing seats would go to a minor party, obvious possibilities being Katter’s Australian Party in Queensland and the Nationals in Western Australia. Poliquant also offers a review of the lower house effects, which argues the Greens stand to lose a share of anti-major party protest voters whose preference flows are not especially favourable to Labor.
• James McGrath, former Liberal federal deputy director, LNP campaign manager at the Queensland state election and chief advisor to London lord mayor Boris Johnson, has dropped a bombshell by nominating for LNP preselection in Peter Slipper’s seat of Fisher. His decision to take on the presumed front-runner, Mal Brough, is said by Michael McKenna of The Australian to have “the support of LNP powerbrokers, increasingly concerned about Mr Brough’s involvement in an anti-corruption probe and role in the sexual harassment case against Mr Slipper”. McGrath had long been considered the likely successor to Alex Somlyay when he retires as member for the neighbouring Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax at the next election. His formidable reputation as a political strategist received a considerable boost by the state election result, despite his having been sacked from his job with Boris Johnson in 2008 after telling a black activist that immigrants should “go if they do not like it here”. Other known candidates for the preselection are Peta Simpson, director of a local recruitment agency (who has Nationals connections and is backed by Brough foe Barnaby Joyce); Richard Bruinsma, a former adviser to Slipper; and Andrew Wallace, a barrister.
• A warning from acting LNP president Gary Spence that expulsion awaits those who comment to the media on the party’s internal affairs has been interpreted as a knock to Clive Palmer. After failing to nominate as threatened for the Lilley preselection last week, Clive Palmer told Lateline he had held off at the insistence of Tony Abbott. Palmer has given the publicity wheel further spins by announcing he plans to run for another seat, indicating Fairfax or Kennedy might fit the bill. This echoed a report from Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail that “some LNP figures” were pushing him in the direction of Kennedy, presumably secure in the knowledge that he would face a humiliating defeat at the hands of Bob Katter. Tony Abbott continues to present thinly disguised arguments against a Palmer candidacy, citing the need for candidates to be “there first thing every morning at the bus stops and the railway stations”, and for members to treat their parliamentary vocations as full-time jobs.
• The LNP’s burst of preselection activity has including the endorsement of its first three candidates for Queensland’s eight Labr-held seats, including confirmation Malcolm Cole will again run against Graham Perrett in Moreton. Cole’s CV includes a period as a journalist at the Courier-Mail and AAP, and later as a staffer to Alexander Downer and former Senator and factional chieftain Santo Santoro. In Oxley, which Bernie Ripoll holds for Labor on a margin of 5.8%, the LNP has also preselected Andrew Nyugen, a 28-year-old policy adviser to Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk. The choice of a candidate so named in the electorate formerly held by Pauline Hanson has been noted. In Blair, held by Shayne Neumann on a margin of 4.3%, the candidate is Teresa Harding, who is “director of the F-111 Disposal and Aerial Targets Office” at the RAAF Base Amberley.
• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports the candidate for Lilley in 2010, Rod McGarvie, a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, is the front-runner to again contest the seat from an LNP preselection field of “about six” in Lilley. Also mentioned has been John Cotter, GasFields commissioner and former head of agriculture lobby group AgForce.
• Rosanne Barrett of The Australian reports John Howard is among those who have thrown support behind former Wallabies coach in his bid for LNP preselection in Petrie, where 11 candidates have nominated to take on Labor member Yvette d’Ath, who holds the northern Brisbane seat on a margin of 2.5%. Connolly ran unsuccessfully against independent incumbent Peter Wellington in the Sunshine Coast seat of Nicklin at the state election.
• Andrew Crook at Crikey reported earlier this week that Senator David Feeney, who is unlikely to be re-elected from his third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket, has been given the right to contest the first House of Representatives seat which becomes available in the election. He would presumably not have to wait long if Labor was defeated, and it suggested a vacancy would shortly become available in the Prime Minister’s electorate of Lalor. Such an agreement would presumably have been owed to the agreement by which Feeney’s own support base and that of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association came back under the wing of the Labor Unity (Right) faction, associated in Victoria with Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy. The earlier divide in the Right had seen various right forces estranged from the Shorten-Conroy axis and frozen out of a “stability pact” which divided spoils between Labor Unity and the Socialist Left.
• Andrew Crook at Crikey also reports Mark Hay, lawyer with the Office of the Director of Military Prosecutions, is gearing for a preselection challenge against Throsby MP Stephen Jones with the backing of his mother, Wollongong MP Noreen Hay. NSW Right sources quoted earlier in the week by Crook argued a decision to hold a rank-and-file preselection in the seat doomed Jones to defeat, as he had the support of about 50 members out of 300 and held the seat through a long-standing arrangement in which the Right had ceded Throsby to the Left in exchange for the western Sydney seat of Fowler. However, a Left source “suggested a deal could be reached to avoid a ballot in Throsby, with the Right extracting a chop out elsewhere”.
• The Liberals have taken the sting out of the looming NSW state by-election for Heffron by announcing they will not field a candidate. A by-election will be held for the seat on a date to be determined after Kristina Keneally quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia. Ron Hoenig, a barrister of Jewish extraction who has been mayor of Botany Bay for no fewer than 31 consecutive years, has won Labor preselection unopposed, early favourite Michael Comninos having decided not to run. Hoenig was last on the preselection scene in 1990, when former state and future federal minister Laurie Brereton defeated him for preselection in Kingsford-Smith. The Liberals’ decision to abstain comes despite the margin having been cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at last year’s election, and the 3.0% swing recorded by the Queensland LNP in similar circumstances after Anna Bligh quit her seat of South Brisbane. Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports some in the Liberal Party feared “a very strong possibility of a swing back, which would allow Labor to claim the byelection as a damning referendum on the first year of the O’Farrell government”.
rummel @ 4638
Hardly a glowing case for supporting Abbott.
And this CO2 Tax you refer to, how much as been deducted from your pay? Send me a copy of your pay slip and I will personally refund any CO2 Tax deducted from your pay.
The fact is, you pay will probably have increased due to tax changes.
So the budget cuts made things tough at work? Just wait until Abbott chops 20,000 public servants.
I have participated in Texas Holdem at the previous place of abode. But even that was too heart stopping! Especially when I knew I had an unbeatable hand.
Not that knew enough about it. I played at a pub a couple of times, but that was even scarier.
I like a few matchsticks or cents, keeps me in for fun.
Bridge might be interesting. Though I think they bet, if American movies are anything to go by.
bemused
I never thought of the hourly rate for entertainment purposes idea. Why don’t you flick that one to whoever is the most anti-pokies pollie in the ALP or Wilke, Xeno, or Getup? That is an excellent rejoinder.
There is a lot we do not agree on, but that does not mean everything. I (mostly 😀 ) play the ball not the player.
If the SC is still saying that the document “might” reveal another source besides Ashby next week (i.e. he still isn’t prepared to offer an opinion as to whom it DOES identify) then the judge should require Lewis to show it to him personally, in camera, and make his decision based on that.
We’re talking about you and your choices Rummel, not the great “other”.
Don’t squib it by saying well everyone else is so why can’t I?
So you explain for us what is YOUR rational reason for supporting the libs.
@rummel/4644
Turnbull was leader of Opposition till end of 2009, the Election for Gillard/Abbott was held in 2010, so Turnbull would have been still Leader, if he wasn’t toppled.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/the-queen-of-grog-keating-lashes-moore-over-cross-crisis-20120713-221e0.html
[There is no way Mr Rudd got to the top as a virgin in political machinations. If Gillard did Rudd in, you can bet Rudd left some bodies lying around on his way up too. It is the Labor way, and it is Darwinism at its best.]
Puff.
I have no doubt he did take down a few opponents on his way to the top . But he made it to the top and Labor offered him up as PM material. I like him and he shifted my vote from Libs to Labor at the election.
gg
very droll.
[So you explain for us what is YOUR rational reason for supporting the libs.]
Henry
I have already said its not rational.
Puffy @ 4653
Although I have never seen anyone run it publicly, I would be surprised if I was alone in having thought of it.
Of course it would largely destroy pokie revenue as they rely on the delusion that it is possible to win to keep people feeding them.
I have also mused about whatever happened to the laws against ‘living off immoral earnings’. Haven’t heard mention of them for years. Seems to be an apt description of anyone profiting from the misery caused by poker machines and maybe those laws should be dusted off and applied … vigorously. 👿
Carbon tax. Tonight I have typed wearing my parka.
My neighbour called in and said it was cold. I was not. Though she has only just returned from a month long trip to Thailand. (not for fun, her sister is seriously ill, she is back toiling away at her massage business to send money for her sister’s life)
I will put on the aircon, briefly, as freezing would be dopey.
But I don’t know, I have money. I can afford warm clothes.
Fair call then Rummel.
Your feelings were hurt, poor baby.
Rummey
He was not offered the PMship by Labor. He took it when he won the top job. He lost it when he lost the top job.
I have an idea.
If you like Kevin so much (and I agree he is likeable to voters), why don’t you write to him and ask his opinion of you voting for the Libs at the next election? Ask him what he wants you to do. This is a serious suggestion btw.
Mmmmh.
Immoral earnings. It has been a long time. I imagine it remains on the statutes.
Puffy @ 4664
Rummel doesn’t need to do that.
It won’t be long before Kev is back in the job.
BB
[the judge should require Lewis to show it to him personally, in camera, and make his decision based on that.]
If Rares reads the document he can rule on it, but after that judgements he makes in regard to the ongoing matter will be open to appeal as he knows the content.
BB
Would the other side simply accept the assertion by Ashby that other sources are in the doc or would they oppose it? If Ashby swears yes there is and it is ever leaked and it turns out he was telling porkies he would be for the high jump. It would be risky. But desperate people do dumb things, sometimes.
CTar1 @ 4667
Would that still apply if he ruled the document be admitted? It would seem odd to me if it did.
bemused
Maybe, but I am dealing with Rummel’s here and now.
[It was an amazing $810,000 that the lady stole.]
As one who has been the subject of egregious theft, I can say from bitter experience that the combination of dishonesty and greed is bound to cause a lot of harm. I think those who received the money – the gambling racket and the Government – should compensate her employers, who have been the victims of sustained betrayal and deceit.
cw
I think that it should be recovered as proceeds of crime.
Or, puff, while rumm one is about it, he may ask Kevin for his explanation on his aiding and abetting the undermining of the Labor Government.
BB
Lewis better be careful. The C’wealth most likely has the texts that put the “Get him” textts in context in a way not favourable to Lewis.
[It won’t be long before Kev is back in the job.]
If the whole Coalition Parliamentary Party was asked tonight to vote on who they would most like as ALP Leader now they’d all vote for Kev-07.
briefly
I agree totally. We all know that these venues are receiving stolen money from gambling addicts. It should be recoverable from venue and gov’t.
crikey whitey @ 4673
Are you serious?
All Rudd has to do is draw breath to face such accusations.
In reality, it is the failed leadership of Julia Gillard that undermines the Labor Govt. The polls clearly show this. She has managed to be less popular than Abbott. Now that must really take some doing.
CTar1 @ 4675
I had not previously recognised your gift for comedy. 😆
Goodnight.
If you have not already done so do read the SMH article I linked to above. Mr Keating still has it. 🙂
Goodnight.
If you have not already done so do read the SMH article I linked to above. Mr Keating still has it. 🙂
guytaur
Ashby does not know when he might be wikileaked or wixxyleaked or just leaked. So he had better be squeaky when he tells ‘isHonour about those docs.
Briefly, 4671, of course.
It is so wrong that the proceeds of crime remain in the hands of the perpetrators.
This is seriously at odds with the recoverable provisions which the State, in SA at least, can and does apply to criminal gain.
bemused
[Would that still apply if he ruled the document be admitted?]
If ‘put in’ then the question of ‘should have he’ comes up for challenge – difficult as the new provisions added in the Act are untested.
CTar1 @ 4683
You must be a lawyer.
Normal folk just don’t understand such sophistry.
[4676
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
briefly
I agree totally. We all know that these venues are receiving stolen money from gambling addicts. It should be recoverable from venue and gov’t.]
In some cases there might be difficulty in proving that the monies lost had been stolen. But where this can be shown to have occurred, it should be recoverable. The greatest losers here are the hapless victims of crime and the innocent members of the addict’s family. Perhaps the gaming “venue” – the racketeers – should be required to support the families of those who lose everything and wind up in prison.
No question that Rudd has been silently undermining JG. Always has and always will.
Only the stupid could miss it.
briefly
The 11 year old daughter had to move out of the house and go live somewhere else (foster care, rellies?) and they couldn’t even save the two cats. How low have we stooped as a society to let these racketeers do this. And Coles and Woolies may wonder why i won’t shop in their rotten stores!
Henry @ 4686
Yes, I have noted he is still breathing and a member of parliament. The blaggard!
bemused
It’s not that strange – Rares will try to get them to back down so he can get a just result. (‘Must be a lawyer’ – Not in any Australian jurisdiction.)
[I had not previously recognised your gift for comedy.]
If Kev-07 came back the Opposition would swap to emphasising all the things he didn’t get ‘done’ and what compromises he had made to get back – a no win position.
She got six years with a two year non-parole period which is fair enough, even the woman agrees with that. But the venues get to keep the money, with no penalty.
PTMD, dishonesty is excused, greed forgiven and indifference approved. Decadence has become so unexceptional it is not even recognized for what it is.
CTar1 @ 4689
Of course the opposition would attack Rudd, but he is able to handle it and is not encumbered by the lack of trust that Julia Gillard is burdened with.
I have concluded her leadership is terminal.
Goodnight all.
bemused 4677
“Are you serious?
All Rudd has to do is draw breath to face such accusations.
In reality, it is the failed leadership of Julia Gillard that undermines the Labor Govt. The polls clearly show this. She has managed to be less popular than Abbott. Now that must really take some doing.”
Yes I am serious, bemused.
I do agree, sadly, that our PM is occasionally polled to be ‘less popular” than the execrable Abbott. And that is not helped by Kevin tilting at windmills. And it is that which takes some doing. Out there whenever and whatever, promoting a self seeking cause, is hardly helpful.
As you would know, whenever similar occurs in your Party of choice.
Got to say though, there is no indifference at the Sydney Piano Festival tonight….on the contrary, there is beauty, devotion and, it has been pointed out, rare poetry…:)
I’m confused about whether deciding a PM’s leadership is terminal is an acceptable thing or a unacceptable thing. Those who criticise it seem to be those who do it
Briefly.
How are you hearing the piano Festival? FM? My wireless is dicky.
[Media Guardian @mediaguardian
Leveson hears press freedom unharmed by Ireland’s statutory regulation http://gu.com/p/392f4/tf
]
CW
Kev-07’s ‘mates’ in cabinet keep up the fight – Bowen and Ferguson with their release of ‘overseas workers for Gina’ (documents delivered to the PM’s Office just after JG left the country and announced before she returned) is a’classic’ ambush.
With friends like that …
That is a confusing question.
HELLO EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!