Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.

It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.

Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.

UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,107 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  5. Yesterday some people asked about wi-fi,this may help.

    [Glossary

    Inevitably with an article like this there are some terms which can befuddle those not used to dealing with the technology industry. These are some of the most important terms to understand:-

    WiFi – connecting to a nearby wired network, wirelessly. This wireless technology differs from the following…

    Mobile network/3G/4G/macro network – are all terms used to describe wireless data flowing over the mobile phone network.

    WiFi allows for super-fast connections to the wired internet from mobile devices like laptops, tablets, games consoles, set top boxes and phones but only at short range. The mobile network’s range is far superior but data is far more expensive and performance drops dramatically when many people share the connection. It’s typically used by phones, some tablets and some laptops at present.

    Symmetry – the ‘A’ in ‘ADSL broadband’ stands for Asymmetric. This refers to the fact that virtually all standard consumer broadband connections have high download speeds but much slower upload speeds. For instance, a top ADSL2+ Australian connection might provide 12Mb/s download speeds but only 1Mb/s upload speed. Future requirements require more symmetry – fast download AND fast upload speeds.

    Latency – Basically this is lag. If you’ve ever seen a satellite interview on TV you’ll have noticed the delay between someone finishing speaking and the other person responding. That’s because satellite offers a high latency. A low latency reduces the delay.]

  6. Yesterday some people asked about wi-fi,this may help.

    [Glossary

    Inevitably with an article like this there are some terms which can befuddle those not used to dealing with the technology industry. These are some of the most important terms to understand:-

    WiFi – connecting to a nearby wired network, wirelessly. This wireless technology differs from the following…

    Mobile network/3G/4G/macro network – are all terms used to describe wireless data flowing over the mobile phone network.

    WiFi allows for super-fast connections to the wired internet from mobile devices like laptops, tablets, games consoles, set top boxes and phones but only at short range. The mobile network’s range is far superior but data is far more expensive and performance drops dramatically when many people share the connection. It’s typically used by phones, some tablets and some laptops at present.

    Symmetry – the ‘A’ in ‘ADSL broadband’ stands for Asymmetric. This refers to the fact that virtually all standard consumer broadband connections have high download speeds but much slower upload speeds. For instance, a top ADSL2+ Australian connection might provide 12Mb/s download speeds but only 1Mb/s upload speed. Future requirements require more symmetry – fast download AND fast upload speeds.

    Latency – Basically this is lag. If you’ve ever seen a satellite interview on TV you’ll have noticed the delay between someone finishing speaking and the other person responding. That’s because satellite offers a high latency. A low latency reduces the delay.]

  7. poroti
    I think you’ve nailed it with that. I bet Mrs Costello gets really, really tired of the nightly raconteuring.

    I can see it now..
    Peter – I coulda had the top job, I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum on a seat, but that #*# Howard just wouldn’t step down..
    Tanya… Yes dear, I know dear, let’s talk about something else now dear. I’ve heard all this eleventy squillion times already.
    Peter – I still say I coulda had the job, I coulda been………

  8. Just heard some idiot on 2GB saying that “driver error”, not “Speed” caused traffic accidents.

    So, all we have to do is eliminate driver error.

    Simple.

  14. TLM
    [Well done Tony Burke, destroying the Australian seafood industry for green preferences at the next election. :)]

    Wake UP man, the seas will be devoid of FISH by 2050 at the rate they are overfishing!.

  15. @poroti/2664

    That maybe the case for every other country, but Australia is pretty backwater.

    Especially when the Coalition party comes in.

  16. bluegreen
    [And Anna Bligh’s mudslinging against Newman lost about an extra 10 seats. QLD was over it.]

    Only time will tell if she was RIGHT!.

  17. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 13s
    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott ‘already, already, the harm is being done’ [from the carbon price].]
    View details ·

  18. @latikambourke: Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says ‘the steel industry has no future in this country under the carbon tax.

  19. The marine reserves is well timed.This 143 meter ocean “vacuum cleaner” arrived in Australia a couple of days ago. A very good reason as to why we need reserves.

    [Super trawler headed for Tasmania

    There are fears a planned trawl fishing operation to be based in Tasmania’s north-west will deplete fish stocks and damage ocean ecosystems.

    Seafish Tasmania intends to bring the 142 metre trawling and processing ship FV Margiris to Devonport.

    The Lithuanian-flagged ship will trawl for red bait and jack mackerel in Commonwealth waters to be sold on Asian and African markets. ]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-30/super-trawler-headed-for-tasmania/4042862

  20. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 3m
    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says ‘the steel industry has no future in this country under the carbon tax.’]

  23. ….because until Anna began the mudslinging, she was cruising to victory….

    Let’s just rewrite history because it suits your prejudices…

  25. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says he’s ‘instinctively’ against anything that may restrict recreational fishers and harm the tourism sector.]

  27. @latikambourke: Opposition Leader Tony Abbott ‘we’ve seen in QLD just how dirty, grubby and desperate Labor Govt’s get.

    TLM sound familiar?

  30. [guytaur
    Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:20 am | Permalink
    @latikambourke: Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says ‘the steel industry has no future in this country under the carbon tax.]

    Good Old El-Slacko. Faithfully tweeting the absurd.

    It Abbott said his shit doesn’t stink, she’d tweet it.

    What kind of journo does that?

  31. [Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 1m
    Abbott: “I’m running a fact campaign here” – Whyalla really will be wiped off the map – with a big shamwow!]

  32. who was that idiot “journo” who asked Abbott about labor’s dirt unit?
    softball powder puff stuff. Even the fool Abbott dispatches it.
    FFS the standards of the meeja in this country is appalling.

  34. So there we have it. Fear to run under Abbott. So now it is just a question of how long until Christian Porter can get there. If that is the strategy as it seems to be the LNP have calculated they are losing the next election.

  36. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 29s
    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott ‘I’m running a fact campaign here.’
    View details]

    Yes, well there’s Fact and then there’s Abbott Fact: Basically any drivel that comes to mind.

    Whyalla being wiped off the map is, of course, an Abbott Fact.

  37. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says he’s ‘instinctively’ against anything that may restrict recreational fishers and harm the tourism sector.]

    What bullshit.

  38. Evan14’s trolling is becoming ever more blatant. Sadly some people continue to engage with him in a serious manner. I’m a bit perplexed why William has been tolerating him for so long.

  41. @latikambourke: PM Gillard defends increasing the departure tax because Australians going abroad are spending their money overseas.

  44. [ lizzie
    Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 11:36 am | Permalink
    smithe

    I’m glad Latika tweets the pressers, then I don’t have to watch it myself.]

    I’d prefer it if she actually did her job and asked the twat a few questions, instead of merely regurgitating what he says as if it were Holy Writ.

    Perhaps she shoulld be geiven another handle. How about The Regurgitator instead of El Slacko?

  45. @latikambourke: PM Gillard ‘first and foremost given all the Opposition ever says ‘no’ to everything it’s not surprising people are scrutinising them.

  46. @latikambourke: PM Gillard ‘I think it is fair enough to get into the public domain, things like, [Oppn’s claims on carbon price.]

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