Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.

It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.

Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.

UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,107 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

  1. No mention in the papers of the “dirt unit”. I don’t believe it actually exists. It would be a made up story by the Libs to counter the perception of negativity and dirty tricks they play.

  2. mm

    The only take out from people in my circle in the past few weeks, is interest rate cut and the compo received for carbon price.

    Only political tragics care about the minutiae

  3. Vic

    Who is leaking?

    I don’t know. Someone who had a grudge against the guy that just left? Could be a lowly staffer, but its pretty ballsy for a junior person to do it.

    I doubt its someone who simply wants the government to run a loftier agenda.

    Maybe the Rudd camp are getting nervous with the timeline. It doesn’t feel like that though.

  4. Terror headline
    Julia Gillard at centre of global ‘super week’

    That is the coverage for the PM in Western Sydney. No mention of dirt units.

  5. SNAP Boerwar

    my thoughts as well…

    [Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Well done Tony Burke, destroying the Australian seafood industry for green preferences at the next election. 🙂 ]

    you really are an ignorant troll TLM.

    creating marine parks is the best thing which could happen for the human users of our oceans, along with the creatures and corals which live there. This initiative is justified on environmental grounds alone, but the economics are:

    – boost to enviro-tourism. Just listen to the Cairns based head of Australian Reef Tourism Operators on ABCRN this morning. Boatloads of 250 well-heeled tourists going out to the Coral Sea, now to be protected
    – the marine parks are hundreds of kilometers offshore, so near coast fishing not affected
    – fish spawning and growing areas protected. recreational fishermen will love the increase in fish numbers which spill out of the protected areas
    – according to Burke, about $100m in compensation to commercial operators affected. Compare this with the billions being thrown at brown coal polluters.

    Interesting to see that Abbott and Hunt (so far) have left the political beat up to Ron Boswell

  6. [Ask why we are interested in leversen]

    Last night, I forsook Leveson to watch the HoC debate on whether Hunt misled Parliament re his dealings with BSkyB; a fascinating, committee-style debate unlike any I’d ever seen, inc any time I managed to get into HoR in session.

    How easy it is now to access stable-transmission UK HoC streaming on a much bigger “screen-window” that I can get for ours! Yet, but a few months ago, when the HoC broadcast, internationally, its probing into the phone hacking scandal, access was often difficult, screen tiny & unstable, buffering slow, drop-outs common. Such a difference in so short a time! As more access opened to global audiences, IT was modified (eg time-lag problems & screen size fixed); illustrating current & evolving HS-BB’s power!

    But international IT’s real power lies in people’s ability to compare and contrast their government with other nations’. Last night offered a comparison between not overly effective Speakers trying to cope with increasing rowdiness and accusations; as well as a significant contrast in manner, tone & “substantive authority” (ie evidence-backed) -nothing resembling Abbott & Co’s jealous, unsubstantiated nastiness. But they were reactions of someone used to Parliamentary democracy.

    That transmission would (via smart phones to many pro-democracy demonstrators) be available across N Africa and the Middle East, further fueling not only the struggle for democratic laws and governments, but Internet searches that can demolish propaganda, censorship, and give access the world’s information; access not readily available or affordable before ubiquitous mobile internet access via this century’s technology.

    Internet, IT “convergence” and access to communication, all information, and global access to diverse models, paradigms, points of view and education, are liberators – at personal level as well as en masse – unequaled in world history.

  7. sprocket_ & boerwar

    You are forgetting the TLM will adopt any position to criticise Gillard. If the announcement had been the government was abandoning marine park expansions, he would be here crowing about a possible split with the Greens.

    You are completely and utterly wasting your time debating him on the issues. Any issues.

  8. There is a must-read article by Mr Sheridan in today’s ‘The Australian’.

    Naturally we need to discount his usual anti-Gillard raves. For example, it turns out that Australia’s lack of influence in Libya is the fault of the Gillard Government’s response. It is the usual sort of neocon war mongering blame-shifting, essentially doing the Pontius Pilate for destroying a stable Libyan Government and replacing it with an unstable, murderous anarchy of war dogs let of the leash. So, nothing new there.

    But then Mr Sheridan provides, IMHO, the best summary of the situation in Syria that we are likely to see in an Australian newspaper.

    If you have any interest in the Middle East, it is fascinating, nuanced, stuff. There are some lugubrious moments. It turns out that Al Quaida elements are joining the fight against the Assad regime. What? Isn’t the West spending trillions in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to get rid of Al Qaida? Isn’t the West, through the Saudis, providing arms and support for the Syrian rebs?

    We on the same side as Al Qaida.

    Mr Sheridan is silent, as the Australian MSM generally is, on the interests and active role of Israel in what is happening in Syria.The reality is that Iran and Israel are both the elephants in the Syrian room. OTOH, we read plenty about the role of Iran in Syria. Thus the reportage is unbalanced.

    The proxy fight in Syria matters to Australia because it is linked to the struggle for regional hegemony between Israel and Iran. The fate of Syria is linked to the possibility of yet another gulf war, triggered by Israeli bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. This might just be enough to turn the GFC into the global economic armageddon it has been promising. In this sense, the Syrian bloodbath is a side-show of the real thing.

    OTOH, Mr Sheridan is quite blunt and overt about Syria being all about destroying Iran.

    However, for me, the real interest in the article is personal. It is Mr Sheridan’s abject, hand-wringing despair. His article finishes with:

    ‘The West has never been less able to influence an outcome. The portents are all bad.’

    I take it this means that Mr Sheridan is acknowledging that the neocons are not going to get a western invasion of Syria.

    Perhaps Libya, two Iraq wars, the prospect of yet another oil/gulf war with Iran, and an ongoing war in Afhanistan, have finally taught the west something worthwhile.

  9. All the Independent Australia HSU articles gathered in one place. At first it was just gossip, but once the primary documents started rolling in, its got a lot more interesting.

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/jacksonville/

    [WELCOME TO JACKSONVILLE

    Independent Australia, with investigative blogger Peter Wicks have undertaken a comprehensive investigation into the HSU affair, involving former Labor MP Craig Thomson, HSU official Kathy Jackson and various other players.

    This resource will be updated and adjusted as new information comes to light and articles are published. It is arranged in reverse chronological order.]

  10. Leroy

    [You are completely and utterly wasting your time debating him on the issues. Any issues.]

    Never a truer word written.

    but I was thinking of posting something on marine parks anyway because it is such a good idea for Australia to be doing. In the days we had bi-partisanship on this stuff (B.A), the arguments would be about the boundaries and the balance – not the politics and whingeing.

    Fran Kelly this morning asked Bourke wtte “won’t this hurt you politically in WA and QLD where you are doing badly anyway?” Says it all.

  11. Couple of articles from the Global Mail worth a look, especially the second one for those interested in CSG & related issues.

    http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/your-politics-stink/269/

    [By Mike Seccombe
    POLITICS | June 14, 2012
    YOUR POLITICS STINK

    People on the left and right of politics see the world differently, literally. They also hear and smell it differently. It’s not opinion, it’s science. And, as several studies show, it’s why the left has dibs on most of the good jokes.]

    http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/the-race-to-mine-the-hunter-valley/268/

    [By Sarah-Jane Collins
    POLITICS | June 13, 2012
    THE RACE TO MINE THE HUNTER VALLEY

    In the frenzy to dig it up and ship it out, coal mining has boomed close to regional population centres. Now it’s pushing out the industries that keep those towns ticking.]

  12. sprocket_

    [creating marine parks is the best thing which could happen for the human users of our oceans, along with the creatures and corals which live there. This initiative is justified on environmental grounds alone, but the economics are]
    All people need to do is see what the Kiwis discovered years ago about such reserves. The science is in the whingers are wrong.
    You might like to listen to this discussion at the Royal Society featuring Professor Jonathan Gardner and Professor Bob Watson
    [The importance of Marine Reserves and Marine Protected Areas – the New Zealand experience. mp3]
    http://www.sas.ac.uk/videos-and-podcasts/politics-development-human-rights/importance-marine-reserves-and-marine-protecte

  13. [ zoomster
    Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 8:48 am | Permalink
    It’s OK, folks. I’m much more relaxed about Christian Porter now..

    He evokes comparisons with another Liberal treasurer and political raconteur, Peter Costello]

    Peter Costello a raconteur?

    Have you ever heard him speak?

    The only things I can recall him whining, sorry, raconting about were how badly Howard treated him and what a genius he was in setting-up the Future Fund.

    BTW it still surprises me how mant people still thing that Fund is some sort of Sovereign Wealth Fund. It ain’t. It’s simply a Fund set-up to specificlly fund the future Superannuation entitlements of Federal public servants. There’s nothing visionry about it at all.

  14. Boerwar, sprocket et al.
    This has already been proved in Victoria, AFAIK.
    It’s important to post these things so that the “lurkers” also get the information.

    [If for no other reason than maintaining a gene pool for the development of farmed seafood creatures, marine reserves are an excellent idea. That apart, there is plenty of evidence that demonstrate that marine reserves provide breeding havens that improve the productivity of wildcatch species.]

  15. Oh shit! I HATE this.
    [PROTECTIONS for key threatened species in areas added to Victoria’s urban growth boundaries by the Baillieu government have been wound back under yet to be released biodiversity plans.

    Under the revised plans — which still need approval by the Commonwealth — proposals for wildlife corridors for rare bandicoots have been scrapped and buffer zones for threatened frogs reduced.

    The changes follows complaints by the property industry that the original proposed protections had been too onerous.]

    The point is that we don’t NEED this extra land developed yet and it is extremely poor planning in every sense. No matter what the experts say, greed wins.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/protection-for-threatened-species-scrapped-20120613-20axf.html#ixzz1xistLV00

  16. @WestWingReport: In #Ohio – of course a critical swing state – Pres. will deliver what WH calls the first major economic speech of the general election

  17. smithe

    You could add that Costello didn’t bother about making provisions for all that unfunded public service super until the very last moment. It would be a much bigger fund if he had had the balls, the energy and the intelligence to set it up in the first year of the Howard government, but he chose to loll around in his hammock for a decade before getting around to it.

    The media seem to push the idea that the fund is just some sort of rainy day cookie jar that can be dipped into whenever the government needs a bit of cash. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve heard ‘Why don’t they just use the Future Fund to…..’

  18. [ Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 9:37 am | Permalink
    Pretty unremarkable stuff. Nothing a reasonably resolute blogger couldn’t dig up from Google, court records, the odd article and asking a few questions:

    Labor sources say Julia Gillard’s director of strategy, Nick Reece distributed a “to-do” list for gathering information on Coalition frontbenchers starting with their, quote, “younger days”, maiden speeches and ministerial record, study trips and associated travel reports, any companies they might be involved in, fundraising, pecuniary interests, down to, quote, “potential issues” such as litigation.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3524756.htm

    Amd what’s wrong with any of that? Keeping records of something someone has said on record or done is pretty standard operating procedure isn’t it? It’s not like they’re making stuff-up.

    It was the SMH that broke the story as to how kind Sophie had been to Old man Howard wasn’t it? Not the ALP. Sure, they’re no doubt following the story closely, but wht shouldn’t they?

  19. [Julia Gillard at centre of global ‘super week’ … That is the coverage for the PM in Western Sydney]

    That’s with minor coverage in the article – not as much as Lowy Institute’s Mark Thirlwell, who says G20’s “credibility was damaged following the Cannes summit in 2011” … followed by over half the article’s length and substance. One lousy RW Think-tank’s self-important member who thinks his views are paramount! No rebuttal of his claims; not even a balancing view from someone with greater credibility in the area!

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/julia-gillard-at-centre-of-global-super-week/story-e6freuyr-1226395187494

    My impression is that this was a pander to the PM & Treasurer, framing the opinions of Mark Thirlwell – not a name I associate with Australian “Movers & Shakers” – or anything, to be honest, even among those I associate with RW Think-tanks.

  20. Vic

    [Excuse my ignorance but why is the baden Clay case of big interest in QLD?]

    Mrs Baden Clay (I think a former Miss Qld, and global HR director of a big company) went missing for 10 days. She had 3 daughters under 10. Found dead on a river bank. Small community. Well known people. Her husband was charged with murder last night. The Baden Clay’s lived in an outer suburb of Brisbane.

  21. Vic

    [Excuse my ignorance but why is the baden Clay case of big interest in QLD?]

    Mrs Baden Clay (I think a former Miss Qld, and global HR director of a big company) went missing for 10 days. She had 3 daughters under 10. Found dead on a river bank. Small community. Well known people. Her husband was charged with murder lst night. The Baden Clay’s lived in an outer suburb of Brisbane.

  22. Scott Morrison And The Streisand Effect

    [Now that a precedent has been set, will Tony Jones apologise to the Prime Minister for his disgraceful comment on Q&A? Will the ABC apologise to other members of the government every time one of their “journalists” makes a derogatory comment about the government? Will Chris Uhlmann apologise to the Prime Minister for interrupting her more than twenty times during a recent interview? Will the ABC apologise for the snide comments made by any of the right wing shills* it packs its shows with?

    Somehow, I doubt it. ]

  23. just read the ABC story on ‘dirt file’. are they kidding?? someone needs to tell the journo what an actual ‘dirt file’ is… thats hilarious.

    i hope Dirt File’s across the country ask Mark Scott for an apology for the ABC insinuating they are in fact Generally Available Public Information Files.

  24. smithe

    I hasten to point out I was quoting a newspaper report!

    Going by Kruger, having Costello ranconteuring at you is enough to make you want to chew off a limb…

  25. Fairfax update: It’s fine to scrutinise Coalition members, says Gillard

    [Ms Gillard said it was “fair enough” to make public “things like” Opposition members buying shares in coal mining companies despite their claims the carbon tax will ruin the economy and the coal industry.

    “I am talking more broadly about transparency and scrutiny … and how it’s relevant to political debate,” she said.

    In Parliament late last month, Climate Change Minister Greg Combet claimed that 34 Coalition MHRs, senators or their families had made fresh mining investments during the past two years.

    ”Publicly, their leader talks mining stocks down, privately, they snap up the investments,” Mr Combet said.]

    As if the Opposition and many individual members don’t have dirt files on ALP, Green and Indie members – especially on Indies Windsor & even more so on Oakshotte, both of whom & their families have copped the brunt of vicious Opposition spite since Sept 2010.

  26. [The media seem to push the idea that the fund is just some sort of rainy day cookie jar that can be dipped into whenever the government needs a bit of cash. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve heard ‘Why don’t they just use the Future Fund to…..’]

    Yes leone. And those cookies are bit soggy thease days, ever since Coissie forced the Future Fund to buy-up all those Telstra shares he couldn’t otherwise flog on the open market.

    It may get it’s money back.

    Eventually. Maybe.

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