GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
[Wait until it’s revealed who leaked the youtube video of Rudd.
I suspect that Gillard’s office/dirt unit has been directing their fire against one of their own, not the Liberals.]
It would not surprise me one bit. Gillard has demonstrated time and time again she is willing to do anything, say anything and take down anyone who gets in her path.
Rudd – destroyed twice no less
Jenkins – removed his reputation trashed.
Wilkie – lied too
The list goes on, the spin goes on and the carbon tax lie becomes a painfully reality in a few short weeks.
Well done Tony Burke, destroying the Australian seafood industry for green preferences at the next election. 🙂
Rummel: Whatever it takes – Julia’s motto. 👿
The Finnigans
What the media will probably do is show Gillard’s brilliantly attacking Howard on it in Question Time and then transition to the present day
It’s a very bad look. The amount of hurdles Gillard’s staff have put in the way of her is ridiculous.
The finns
The pavlovian dogs are barking very loudly. Hilarious stuff
… and yet ANOTHER attempt to derail Labor’s good fortnight from within its own ranks, even though it reads as a “meh, nothing to see here” sort of beat-up.
I notice that this apparently occurred a month ago, and yet we are only hearing about this now. A month ago, things were a bit dodgy for Labor, as opposed to now when things are starting to look up. Interesting timing yet again.
I also notice the article quotes a Minister saying he was unaware of it, yet the claim is that all Ministerial offices were contacted. If this is true, then either it was so low key (because it was a non-issue) this Minister didn’t get told or this Minister is lying. On the other hand, no other Minister apart from this one seems to have been sought out for questioning or a comment. Why? Maybe the answer is they WERE, but all issued denials … which would have made the story fall on its arse.
I notice further that the only other comment in the article came from a Government “member” – not a Minister. This person, if you ask me, is the source of the leak to the media.
So the article tells us that one Minister was unaware this even happened in his and other Ministerial offices and yet a backbencher knew all about it. Didn’t this strike Alexandra Kirk as rather odd?
Also, one must also ask: what would be the motive of the person speaking with the media?
Leadership destabilisation, anyone?
I wonder who would benefit from that …
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/high-dollar-good-for-consumers-rba-governor-glenn-stevens/story-e6frg2qc-1226394325385
Australians
S shouldn’t wish too quickly for a lower Australian dollar, the nation’s top central banker says.
Addressing the Federal Government’s economic forum in Brisbane, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the high value of the dollar, currently worth around 99 US cents, was good news f
[An interesting column from the SMH on “What will replace newspapers?”]
Sorbent?
DL
Sadly your suspicions are well founded
Cant see it as a particularly good one though.
Yup. The lead up to July 1st has the unhinging progressing well in the MSM and on the intertubes. Hah! Had a look at Nuttertruckers. They are now soliciting funds, and the doom gloom and the world is in terminal decline meme there is really taking hold. The site owner has taken up channeling Ayn Rand big time and it seems the conspiracy theory nutjobbies are happy settling in there. They actually did used to have a bit of science debate there, but thats dropped off now as the Carbon Price gets closer and the global financial situation gets more uncertain.
Its going to take a few weeks for the Carbon Price to settle down politically, but the big significant of the July 1 date is that its going to be much harder to overturn after it starts. A day worth hoisting a glass on i reckon.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/green-growth-on-g20-un-agendas/story-e6freuyi-1226395136701
[Green growth on G20, UN agendas
By Paul Osborne AAP June 14, 2012 8:54AM
GREENING the world economy and heading off economic disaster in Europe will be the focus of global forums to be attended by Prime Minister Julia Gillard in Mexico and Brazil next week.
Ms Gillard will miss a week of federal parliament to attend the G20 leaders’ summit in the Mexican resort city of Los Cabos on June 18 and 19, and the United Nations conference on sustainable development (Rio+20) in Rio de Janeiro the following three days.
The Prime Minister will tell her G20 colleagues of the need to put “growth and jobs first” in the face of global economic weakness.
“Austerity alone is not the right path,” she said in a speech in Brisbane this week.
At least 135 countries will be represented at Rio+20 which is expected to endorse a 20-point agenda for sustainable development, addressing issues including climate, clean energy, biodiversity, water, forests, agriculture and urban centres.
The conference will mark the 20th anniversary of the landmark UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), also in Rio de Janeiro, and the 10th anniversary of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in South Africa.
Ms Gillard is likely to receive plaudits at the UN summit for her Labor government’s plan to tackle climate change through a carbon price to start on July 1.]
DL
I said yesterday that JG biggest challenge is not Abbott, but within her own party
[The amount of hurdles Gillard’s staff have put in the way of her is ridiculous.]
… how many hurdles?
Australia Day: stupid beat-up. Someone in her office contacting someone about something that was ALREADY being reported in the media? Always was, always will be a stupid beat-up.
Dirt Unit? Says who? Either untrue or a beat-up.
Now, care to name all the other “hurdles” the PM’s staff had put in her way?
Spur
Are you a concer troll
Posters here go in to conversation with you,
But you come back time after time,
Il get the definition for you
Then you decide
Frankly i want be readig any more of your
Worry, worried posts,
After crsg thompson and mr slipper, this is minor
If therewas some o e in the pm office now therd is not who cares.
It hapoens in busi ess somewhere every day
citizen
[”We want to reassure customers that they have a voice in how the over-recovery of funds]
Over charging,ripping off,theft ? Nah “Over-recovery of funds” .Love it 😆
Excuse me? Is it really believable that a major political party WOULDN’T have some kind of “dirt unit”?? Silly beat up, again.
What I find interesting about the dirt unit is: What took so long?
If I could find a 2001 version of Abbott ridiculing Beazley for talking down the economy with a little bit of googling, they obviously haven’t been doing a good job.
well up here in QLD the papers are only focussed on Origin and Baden-Clay. So dirt file talk won’t get much airplay.
Pretty unremarkable stuff. Nothing a reasonably resolute blogger couldn’t dig up from Google, court records, the odd article and asking a few questions:
[Labor sources say Julia Gillard’s director of strategy, Nick Reece distributed a “to-do” list for gathering information on Coalition frontbenchers starting with their, quote, “younger days”, maiden speeches and ministerial record, study trips and associated travel reports, any companies they might be involved in, fundraising, pecuniary interests, down to, quote, “potential issues” such as litigation.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3524756.htm ]
There IS a difference between digging up dirt from publicly available sources and manufacturing it.
Ask James Ashby, who has spread quite a lot of dirt by way of consorting with Slipper’s political enemies, filing and publicising “court documents”, and then withdrawing much of it a couple of weeks later.
So much so that Slipper’ SC is asking the Court to declare the action “vexatious litigation” and, if not that, to rule that the “court documents” reveal no cause of action.
mm
Here in Vic , we have Melbourne Water ripping off customers. Bigger story than dirt file too
From the ABC AM report this morning, it was not pollies, but one member of staff from each dept that was called into a conference and asked to find out about the background of the shadow minister. So caucus members may well not have known about it.
Can’t see that that was any different to the Libs’ obvious ferreting about for flaming arrows to hurl at Ministers.
Same old, same old… If Labor isn’t doing it, it would show their naivete.
http://m.urbandictionary.com/#define?term=concern%20troll
You decide
[Tony Burke Marine Park Announcement Live News 24]
That is a serious leak.
Opposition research is standard fare in a leader’s office. Usually it is just to pull up quote’s where they have been hypocritical ie where they criticise you for something they have done themselves.
To leak it maliciously means the termites are back.
[Ms Gillard is likely to receive plaudits at the UN summit for her Labor government’s plan to tackle climate change through a carbon price to start on July 1.]
Which will be spun by Hadley as a bunch of overpaid wog bludgers applauding a fat-arsed cow with thick ankles who lied to get it through.
“Dirt units’ are a permanent feature of politics. I doubt there’s been a time when they didn’t exist – in one form or other – and certainly no modern leader, State or Federal, wouldn’t have one.
Of course, the polite name is ‘opposition research’.
It’s not whether or not you’re gathering ‘dirt’ that matters – it’s a given that you are – it’s how you use the information you’re given.
The Bill Tilley incident is an example. Tilley has recorded a conversation with Peter Ryan (Victorian Deputy Premier), a member of his own government, and made the world aware that he has it.
In other words, he’s using ‘dirt’ he has on Ryan to protect himself.
That’s intelligence gathering. Also, very wise to do from a defensive perspective, particularly when it is known as a fact that the Opposition will dredge up ANYTHING and toss it around for their own advantage.
Nice backdrop for the Marine Park press conference, but I can already see Mark Simkin saying tonight that
[the sharks are circling on the Gillard government…]
Can’t youse?
[The pavlovian dogs are barking very loudly. Hilarious stuff]
Vic, them pavvy doggys are easily pleased. just throwing them few vomits, and they’ll come licking and ask for more. 😆
Well rummel will be happy Burke has sharks swimming in the background
victoria
We also have developers who paid large sums to support Libs at the election, now in train to make millions (as in $150m) from their land. Report in today’s Age.
Supposedly all decided at arm’s length from the govt. Hahahah!
And Matthew Guy, the Planning Minister, is said to be looking for a lower house seat so that he can taken over when Baillieu hits the concrete.
Sky cuts away to go back to sport.
[middle man
Posted Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 9:36 am | Permalink
well up here in QLD the papers are only focussed on Origin and Baden-Clay. So dirt file talk won’t get much airplay.]
Rubbish. Abbitt will call on Gillard to fire everyone in the dirt unit immediately, repudiate them. He will also ask if she knew it existed and when.
And Anna Bligh’s mudslinging against Newman lost about an extra 10 seats. QLD was over it.
@TLM/2538
It’s PRO LABOR cheersquad, we want LABOR not FACTION FIGHTS.
DOUFAS.
LABOR are here to stay.
no LNP Trolling PLEASE.
i mean its just a bit of competitor research… looking for product defects or weaknesses.. blah. which tosser went and tried to beat that up?!
2486 OPT
The DT, yesterday, didn’t like it. They even invented a new verb: “to needle”. This is the DT’s “They said it” column on JG’s words: “They’re not trying to get rid of you, are they? Gillard needles Jones again.”
If that’s a “dirt unit”, it’s piss weak. Sounds like a basic effort to collect basic public info they should have had years ago.
@Tony_Burke Tony, on the behalf the dolphins, we say thank you for the Marine Parks and please leave the red herrings to us #auspol
bg. i think you’re making way too big a deal out of it. all any QLD’er will be talking about today is Cooper Cronk spending 10 in the bin, Dave Taylors poor hands, Corey’s injury and will Billy be fit???
my say
It doesn’t matter how minor something is, it gets blown out of proportion
http://kingstribune.com/current-issue/1516-the-great-unhinging-revisited
@BG/2584
On my radio was Origin, nothing political talk this morning.
Zoomster
The issue for Gillard is that someone maliciously leaked it. Of course, she will no have to deal with a couple of days on the back foot, but she will also have to deal with someone in the government who is pissed off enough to spruik the story.
victoria
[The pavlovian dogs are barking very loudly. Hilarious stuff]
Barking? It’s either that or this 🙂 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HuPLoMsl84
and most of NSW will still be hungover from a rare win!
Middle man,
wait for the first Abbott presser.
TLM
[Well done Tony Burke, destroying the Australian seafood industry for green preferences at the next election. :)]
Spoken like a true Pro Extinction Man.
The Australian wild-catch seafood industry is quite capable of destroying itself. As with the land, so with the sea.
Around 95% of terrestrial animal biomass now consists of farmed creatures. In the short run, this ‘works’, sort of. In the long run, the hydrological, energy and nutrient equations are ruinous for H. sapiens. And that is before this construct even has a chance to cook the planet.
We are heading in the same direction with seafood. The proportion of wildcatch to farmed seafood is falling globally, and in Australia.
If for no other reason than maintaining a gene pool for the development of farmed seafood creatures, marine reserves are an excellent idea. That apart, there is plenty of evidence that demonstrate that marine reserves provide breeding havens that improve the productivity of wildcatch species.
But I would not expect Mr Abbott, presented with a populist ranting opportunity, or his Bludger drones, to bother themselves with anything as sophisticated as a sensible policy discussion about the relationships between wild catch, aquaculture and human sustainability.
And TLM does not disappoint.
bg
Who in the govt is pissed off?
@BG/2596
IF it wasn’t on the morning talk show (where most traffic is) then its not going to happen.
All talk about traffic congestion inc an accident involving honey and broken down truck and the Origin from last night.
The Abbott Presser is too late.
The big political story of the day is the Marine Park. The cheering by environmental groups and the whinging of commercial fisherman.
The big political story will not be a dirt unit.
[The amount of hurdles Gillard’s staff have put in the way of her is ridiculous.]
The numer of spin woud also be relevant.
Do you have a note from your Mum for being off school today?