The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
Eden-Monaro was held by conservatives of various stripes for all but one term until 1943, the exception being Labor’s 40-vote win when Jim Scullin’s government came to power in 1929. Allan Fraser won the seat for Labor with the 1943 landslide and held it against the tide in 1949 and 1951. He was defeated in 1966 but was back in 1969, finally retiring in 1972. The loss of his personal vote almost saw the seat go against the trend of the 1972 election, with the Country Party overtaking their conservative rivals for the first time to come within 503 votes of victory. The Country Party again finished second in 1974, this time coming within 146 votes of defeating Labor member Bob Whan (whose son Steve unsuccessfully contested the seat in 1998 and 2001, and was later the state member for Monaro). However, 1975 saw the Liberals gain strongly at the expense of the Country Party as well as Labor, and their candidate Murray Sainsbury won the seat with a two-party margin of 5.6%. Sainsbury held the seat until the defeat of the Fraser government in 1983; the same fate befell his Labor successor, Jim Snow, who was swept out by a 9.2% swing when Labor lost office in 1996, and then Gary Nairn, who served as Special Minister of State from January 2006 until the November 2007 election defeat.
Labor’s successful candidate was Lieutenant-Colonel Mike Kelly, a military lawyer who had been credited with efforts to warn the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade about the AWB kickbacks scandal, and the Australian military about possible abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. Kelly was installed as candidate a week after the party’s national conference empowered the state executive to appoint candidates in 25 key seats over the heads of the local party branches. A member of the Right faction, he won immediate promotion to parliamentary secretary for defence support, shifting to the water portfolio in February 2009. After the 2010 election he was shifted to the agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio, which was criticised owing to Kelly’s status as the federal parliament’s only war veteran. He was restored to his earlier role in the December 2011 reshuffle.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Peter Hendy, a former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive and previously a staffer to Brendan Nelson and Peter Reith. Hendy reportedly had a comfortable victory over three other candidates, including Sustainable Agricultural Communities director Robert Belcher. The Nationals have reportedly approached Cooma mayor Dean Lynch to run, having determined that the Liberals’ endorsement of Hendy offers them a “point of difference” owing to his stance on foreign investment and the currency of foreign farm ownership as an issue locally.
[He would be a friend of Abbott’s wouldn’t he ??]
They are reportedly friends, yes.
Why Labor didn’t put the broom through the upper echelons of the public service and its entities upon coming to govt is anyone’s guess.
Bit of group think going on here about Justice Ross.
Do we really want judges wading into the politics of it all.
Although he would not condemn Lawler (…… pointing out his lack of authority over Lawler), he did say that FWA leaders should not be in the public debate so he certainly didn’t hold back in criticising conduct such as Lawler’s in writing to the police.
It’s a bit rich to join Ross J with the likes of Jackson, Bolano, Williamson etc.
Now Blair talking Australian Labor Party Relationship to Murdochs
[If collared ,would think jackson will be dropped in it,jackson will say he is delusional]
Jackson will probably demand a lie detector test like she did the other day.
She comes across in her public interviews and statements as completely irrational and hence, unreliable.
Joe 2
Quite right. At the moment the govt will steer well clear of any FWA “discipline” chatter or action.
But Lawler won’t be sacrosanct if court happens.
What more is there to this censure motion thing tomorrow?
What – does it mean some kind of finger-wag, telling off or something?
Didn’t know a cross bencher could initiate such a motion.
Confessions @6404
But note that KJ believes polygraphs are crap.
She said CT would pass a poly because he so passionately believes that he’s telling the truth (when he’s not)
Tricot
Any MP can move any motion.
You heard it here first –
People close to Rob Oakeshott are saying that he will not run in the next election. He has health problems (we’ve all heard about those) and he also has a delightful wife and four little kids who would love to have him at home full time. Rob has a recently acquired law degree that would allow him to earn a substantial income as a solicitor, should he want to do that. He would be financially better off than he now is as an MP. He’s achieved a great deal as an MP and his hard work is not appreciated by the malicious red-neck voters in Lyne (and specifically Port Macquarie) who prefer useless do-nothing Nats MPs to hard-working, high achieving independents. Discuss as you wish, I’m off for the night now.
Have just switched on the TV. Sky is hosting a ‘State of the Nation’ on the state of our media.
I can see one woman on a panel of about 15, and she’s a Sky reporter.
They can stop talking right now because that alone perfectly sums up the state of our boys’ network media. Talk about an own goal.
😆
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/staggers/2012/05/morning-call-pick-papers-25
[Morning Call: pick of the papers
Ten must read pieces from this morning’s papers.
By New Statesman Published 28 May 2012 7:56]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/27/forget-queens-jubilee-kneesup-magna-carta
[Forget the Queen’s jubilee. Let’s have a knees up for the Magna Carta
If we want parties and pageantry, let’s have them to celebrate our story of democracy, not an unelected monarchy
Peter Wilby
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 27 May 2012 21.00 BST ]
[leone
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 8:47 pm | Permalink
You heard it here first –
People close to Rob Oakeshott are saying that he will not run in the next election. He has health problems (we’ve all heard about those) and he also has a delightful wife and four little kids who would love to have him at home full time. Rob has a recently acquired law degree that would allow him to earn a substantial income as a solicitor, should he want to do that. He would be financially better off than he now is as an MP. He’s achieved a great deal as an MP and his hard work is not appreciated by the malicious red-neck voters in Lyne (and specifically Port Macquarie) who prefer useless do-nothing Nats MPs to hard-working, high achieving independents. Discuss as you wish, I’m off for the night now.]
Not to mention he’d lose and all.
psyclaw:
Yes, she comes across as completely irrational.
confessions
Leveson Grilling Tony Blair News24
BB
Ross J said it was up to parliament to “discipline” criticise Lawler because Lawler is a statutory appointment.
Lawler is a judge in the same way Anna Burke is the Speaker …..not.
And good on him if that’s his choice. He’s done a good job overall in this Parliament and if the majority of voters in Lyne dont appreciate that to the extent they would prefer the Fib/Nats then they are part of that terrifyingly high percentage of the electorate who are morons.
This 4 corners is exactly what I have previously said about the Mining Boom.
Should scare the shit out of every true conservative (if these still exist)
Increased social dislocation
Increased crime
Increased family dislocation
leone:
Sane voters in Lyne will undoubtedly come to realise how ineffective the coalition are in delivering for rural/regional Australia.
Just as they have in New England.
guytaur:
Yes, have now discovered Leveson’s on Apac.
Ross has only recently been appointed to FWA – within the last few weeks – by the Federal Government. Up until then he was a Victorian Supreme Court Judge.
The previous President, Geoff Guidice, is the one who should be answering questions on Lawler, as these matters all occurred under his watch,
Van Onselen gloating again about newspoll and saying it’s one not to be missed. What else could we expect after the week that has just been plus the weekend where Bowen, Cameron, Howes and the leadership junk hung the PM out to dry.
[confessions
Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 8:53 pm | Permalink
leone:
Sane voters in Lyne will undoubtedly come to realise how ineffective the coalition are in delivering for rural/regional Australia.
Just as they have in New England.]
You think Lyne voters would prefer an ALP government to an LNP government?
Or do you just think that sane voters vote ALP and (please insert your own adjective) voters vote LNP…
bluegreen
[This 4 corners is exactly what I have previously said about the Mining Boom.
Should scare the shit out of every true conservative (if these still exist)
Increased social dislocation
Increased crime
Increased family dislocation]
Good to see that at long long last the rest of this wide brown land are just becoming aware of what the wild wild west has had to deal with for decades.Secession now !!
bluegreen:
The real problem Australia has going into a mining boom is that for 11 years leading up to it we had a Liberal govt which essentially sat on its hands and did SFA to prepare the nation for it.
Hence the current govt has to write into its EMAs with super projects provision to train Australian workers.
Looking forward to news poll
BH
I expect this poll to be very, very bad.
Mod Lib:
I think sane voters in RARA steer away from the coalition at all costs. They know the coalition does SFA for them when they’re in govt, yet whinge like hell and oppose the initiatives Labor govts rolls out in their electorates.
This is why they turn to sensible independents like Tony Windsor.
[Van Onselen gloating again about newspoll and saying it’s one not to be missed.]
Well seeing as the -6 on for the Coalition on the last Newspoll was likely rogue, it will only return to somewhere where it has been in the other polls. Just like when Labor’s PV was 27 – it’s only got one way to go from there.
The problem with a +8 shift in one week for Labor is that the next poll will likely return to trend, which means OH MY GOD LABOR DROPPED 4 POINTS ON THE 2PP, GILLARD IS TOAST.
BH:
LAst Newspoll factored in a slight correction off the previous one.
We should therefore expect this one to be higher than the last.
PvO is simply shilling for people to fork out to get through the OO paywall of Shanahan’s article/s.
BH
[Van Onselen gloating again about newspoll and saying it’s one not to be missed]
How would he know before others? better people than him have not twittered
Confessions
I reckon there is about a 5% boost for the first fringe party to run a strident religious campaign against the moral decay of the boom. Its a race between familiy first and DLP. It would cause schisms in the coalition.
Imagine the time that fathers do not spend with their children. Imagine the divorces. Imagine the prostitution. Imagine the illegal sex worker immigration. Imagine the child sexual abuse in mining/aboriginal communities. Imagine the increase in alcoholism.
Blair war criminal
____________
__________Blair should be in The Hague on trial like Milosevic’s mate Karadic
He was the criminal accomplice of Bush and the architect of the death and destruction heaped on the unlucky Iraqi people
Like the Nazis at Nuremberg he should be tried and then hanged
They and Blair ,make a good case for the death penalty
Professor George Williams on, among other things complaints against Federal judges and Nicola Roxon’s reforms (apologies for crappy format):
http://m.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/judge-her-on-merits-roxons-proposed-reforms-well-constructed-20120423-1xhcg.html
Schnappi – I’m quite sure The Australian op-ed writers all new much earlier today, as they had their write their articles around it
[How would he know before others?]
The results of Newspoll would not change much from any interim analysis done on Sunday itself (even if people were still being polled).
In this day and age it would be pretty easy to tabulate the results pretty much instantly.
Doesnt pvo
Work for news ltd,
And live in wa.
I wonder if he is the ghost.
PVO could be talking about it being an amazing poll for the ALP for all we know…
deblonay
{Like the Nazis at Nuremberg he should be tried and then hanged
They and Blair ,make a good case for the death penalty]
Why do you not include John Howard and even abbott in your hate justice.
[Bit of group think going on here about Justice Ross.
Do we really want judges wading into the politics of it all.]
He seemed very pissed off this morning that the Senate had passed a motion compelling him to appear at Senate estimates. He pointed out he was the only judicial officer who had been subjected to such a Senate order.
[Van Onselen gloating again about newspoll and saying it’s one not to be missed. What else could we expect after the week that has just been plus the weekend where Bowen, Cameron, Howes and the leadership junk hung the PM out to dry.]
I actually think Newspoll is going to go in the govts favour. I think people have been really turned off by the Thomson witch hunt. Even here in Indi I’m hearing people in cafes talking about how Abbott is going too far and while they don’t know much about Pyne, they know they really don’t like him after seeing him rant and rave on the news. Work colleagues who are normally quick to slag off the PM have been voicing concerns about Abbott. Which is why the leadership crap and more internal turmoil is stupid, stupid timing. There are some in the party who can’t seem to hold discipline for longer than 5 minutes. I’d be tearing my hair out if I was the PM, Albo or Swanny.
bluegreen:
Incidentally I read a report of a psychological study conducted in various parts of WA (FIFO workers aren’t just in Perth, but in Busselton, Albany, Margaret River etc) which looked at the developmental outcomes and school readiness of children from FIFO households, and those from ordinary households.
There were no statistically significant differences in developmental outcomes of FIFO household children. I will watch the 4Corners program later, but in my experience there are many assumptions made about the impact of FIFO which aren’t substantiated by statistical analysis.
[PVO could be talking about it being an amazing poll for the ALP for all we know…]
Fat chance. Whenever he specifically mentions a Newspoll before release it is bad for Labor.
[Ross has only recently been appointed to FWA – within the last few weeks – by the Federal Government. Up until then he was a Victorian Supreme Court Judge.
The previous President, Geoff Guidice, is the one who should be answering questions on Lawler, as these matters all occurred under his watch]
It has never been the role of a head of jurisdiction to answer questions (whatever the questions) about a member or judge. That is why Gleeson CJ was infuriated when Gaudron J advocated public comment to defend Michael Kirby against Heffernan’s cowardly attack.
[Just like when Labor’s PV was 27 – it’s only got one way to go from there.]
If I can just point a little fact out here:
Newspoll has had the ALP at 27 (or lower) five times in the last 10 months.
If you had some doubt about the credibility & competency of FWA before. Watch this http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3512917.htm it will shock you to your bootie
…and in the 20s for the majority of the last 20 polls.
What’s Low Carbon Australia?
[Mike Rann @Mike_Rann
Pleased to be appointed by Greg Combet to the board of Low Carbon Australia and look forward to becoming its Chair next month. @LowCarbonAus]
ML
[PVO could be talking about it being an amazing poll for the ALP for all we know…]
On past form PVO only pops up to herald Newspoll on twitter when it is real bad news for the ALP.
Schnappi – PVO is an OO columnist. He would know what it is. Sky’s Gilbert was hinting earlier today as well. There are more newspolls to go before the election so they’ll go down or up or round about or whatever and get Shanahan and van Onselen (the great Political Scientist!) excited and I will try to ignore them.
[At least our armoured warrior CC was able to ride his US Abrams junk on tax-payer funded rail lines, never to make a quid, built by the business barons running the Liberal party at the time.]
And all the tme the Tankers could have availed themselves of the Navy’s amphibious fleet for the transfer …
O, wait ……