Morgan face-to-face: 59-41 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bass

Morgan’s face-to-face polling from last weekend, which has been published a day earlier than usual, shows Labor up slightly off a record low the week before, with their primary vote up a point to 30.5%. The Coalition is also up slightly, by half a point to 46%, with the Greens steady on 12%. A narrowing in the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, from 60.5-39.5 to 59-41, is mostly down to a slight increase in the preference flow to Labor. With regard to the ongoing disparity between this result and the two-party figure derived from preference flows at the last election, which is steady at 55.5-44.5, Morgan has taken to adding the following footnote: “An increasing proportion of Greens voters are indicating a preference for the L-NP ahead of the ALP. At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%”.

The latest instalment of Seat of the Week, like the last two, is brought to you by the letter B.

Seat of the week: Bass

Still famous for the by-election that provided a catalyst for the Coalition’s decision to block supply in 1975, Bass has been an arm wrestle between Labor and Liberal ever since, changing hands at five out of the six elections between 1993 and 2007. The electorate has been little changed since it was created with the state’s division into five single-member electorates in 1903, at all times covering Launceston and the state’s north-eastern corner. Launceston accounts for slightly less than three-quarters of its voters, and has been trending to Labor over the past two elections: between 2004 and 2010, Labor’s two-party vote in Launceston progressed from 47.6% to 58.3%, compared with 46.4% to 54.0% in the remainder of the electorate.

Labor first won Bass when it secured its first ever parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, and lost it six years later when its member Jens Jensen followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party. Jensen retained the seat as a Nationalist at the 1917 election, and it remained with the party after he lost its endorsement in 1919. Labor’s next win came with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, but it was again lost to a party split when Allan Guy followed Joseph Lyons into the United Australia Party in 1931. Guy was re-elected as the UAP candidate at that year’s election, before being unseated by Labor’s Claude Barnard in 1934.

The next change came when Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick defeated Barnard when the Menzies government came to power in 1949. The seat returned to the Barnard family fold in 1954 when Kekwick was defeated by Claude’s son Lance, who went on to serve as deputy prime minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1974. The famed 1975 by-election followed Barnard’s mid-term resignation, ostensibly on grounds of ill health, but following a year after he lost the deputy leadership to Jim Cairns. A plunge in the Labor primary vote from 54.0% to 36.5% delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Kevin Newman (the late father of Campbell Newman and husband of Howard government minister Senator Jocelyn Newman), encouraging the Coalition to pursue an early election at all costs.

Bass remained in the Liberal fold for 18 years, with Tasmania bucking the national trend during the Hawke years in the wake of the Franklin dam controversy. Kevin Newman was succeeded in 1990 by Warwick Smith, whose promising career progress was twice stymied by the vagaries of electoral fortune. In 1993 he lost to Labor’s Sylvia Smith by just 40 votes, part of a statewide swing that gave the first indication that election night that things were not going according to script. Warwick Smith recovered the seat in 1996 and served as Family Services Minister in the first term of the Howard government, before the 1998 election produced a second GST backlash and another painfully narrow defeat, this time by 78 votes at the hands of Michelle O’Byrne, a 30-year-old official with the Miscellaneous Workers Union.

O’Byrne held the seat until 2004, when Mark Latham’s restrictive policy on old-growth logging provoked the wrath of Tasmanian unions and Labor politicians, and resulted in John Howard receiving a hero’s reception from timber workers in Launceston in the final week of the campaign. Michael Ferguson gained the seat for the Liberals with a 4.5% swing, but he was defeated after a single term by a 3.6% swing in 2007, and has since pursued a career in state politics. The successful Labor candidate, Jodie Campbell, would likewise serve only one term, announcing she would not stand for re-election as reports emerged her preselection was under threat. Campbell was succeeded by Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley and former manager at Launceston General Hospital. Lyons’ endorsement was determined by the intervention of the party’s national executive, an arrangement which had reportedly been smoothed by the Left not contesting the preselection for Denison. He performed strongly at the election, consolidating Labor’s hold on the seat with a 5.7% swing.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, whose military service has included postings in Iraq and Afghanistan, and has more recently worked with the Defence Department’s international policy division. Nikolic had been rated a favourite for preselection in 2010, but he withdrew citing work and family reasons. He made the news in May 2012 when he threatened to send “formal letters of complaint” to the employers of those responsible for a satirical blog post about him, and of anyone who had “liked” the post on Facebook.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,598 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 59-41 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bass”

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  1. [I highly recommend reading ‘The Roving Cavaliers of Credit’ by Steve Keen.]

    oh dear, not Dr. Doom that sold his house because he predicted sydney house price would collapse. try harder

  2. The European markets are only down 1% or a bit less.

    There is a rumor Spain is going to ban short-selling so there must be a few nervous people.

    I seem to recall we banned short selling for a few weeks during the GFC.

  3. zoidlord

    [The workers right was never there whenever the Liberals are in town]

    True ,but the libs need a dictatorship to pull down worker protection agencies.

  4. Josie…..Statewide Vic…..”6th week in a row we have invited Ted Bailliue…and he has declined”…………..gutless wonder

  5. [This little black duck
    Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

    On QE, how many million Euros to the $A?

    I have some very interesting German superimposed stamps from the 1930s.]

    1924-1925 is more likely, the inflation rate in 1930 was -1%.

  6. [There is a rumor Spain is going to ban short-selling so there must be a few nervous people.]

    Diog, the pain in Spain falls mainly on the plain

  7. Finns

    The analyst from Brewin Dolphin (I kid you not) says it is rumored to only be naked short selling that is banned.

    I thought that would tickle your blowhole.

  8. Best quote from 2GB today:

    In Queensland, the houses have always had verandahs. Global warming is a joke.

  9. [This little black duck
    Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

    fredn,

    I bow. I haven’t looked at my stamps for about thirty years.]

    The dates are important. Hitler pulled Germany out of depression by spending, unfortunately the roads were built for war.

  10. [The Finnigans

    Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

    I highly recommend reading ‘The Roving Cavaliers of Credit’ by Steve Keen.

    oh dear, not Dr. Doom that sold his house because he predicted sydney house price would collapse. try harder
    ]

    Finns,

    Would you rather read an economic rationalist?

    Keen is certainly not the messiah, I disagree with a fair bit of his philosophy. However, his main criticisms of the dominant economic rationalist ideology coincide with mine. The main point being that money should be treated endogenously.

  11. And Roosevelt pulled the USA out of the depression by spending, spending on the war really kicked it along.

    Austerity is bullshit.

  12. [Best quote from 2GB today:
    In Queensland, the houses have always had verandahs. Global warming is a joke.]
    The verandah-led solution to AGW. Fabulous!
    Do they think there will be more hours of sunshine, or something?
    Do they ever think? Or read? Or listen?

  13. fredn
    [The dates are important. Hitler pulled Germany out of depression by spending, unfortunately the roads were built for war]
    Watched a doco on the History Channel the other day and WOW. The guy that designed the uber cool Nazi uniforms woz the original Hugo Boss.

  14. [fredn

    Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

    Bullshit (serious academic word that). 1930 occurred because the money supply was limited by the amount of gold. The first country to pull out in 1930 was China, they used silver so their money supply was not limited.

    At some point Europe will increase the money supply to whatever level is required by printing money, Quantitative easing is the down market name.

    Sure beats Hitlers solution.
    ]

    QE will not work.

    The pain will be the same. Implenting QE will just spread the same amount of pain over a longer time period.

  15. [This little black duck
    Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink

    The stamps were perforated and ink-overstamped.]

    A daily inflation rate of 20% does cause some problems.

  16. I am so sick of Liberal Governments creating future funds at the same time they aren’t f*&cking doing their job and funding current infrastructure in an appropriate and sustainable way. Howard hid his because his failure to fund infrastructure merely restricted growth and made the current economic transition harder, and to the extent he massively underfunded the States pretty at the same time he had the highest tax to GDP ratio ever, but he got away with it.

    But how do Barnett and Porter expect to get away with abandoning the present for the future! All very well to fund the future from a boom after you’ve got a sustainable funded present but they haven’t got it.

    About bloody time voters realised that Labor do things like roads, public transport, hospitals, schools, NBN, and the Liberals break promises. Like all those morons who voted for Liberals in NSW and Qld expecting better public infrastructure, well that is one thing I can enjoy and laugh at from my extremely cramped train carriage.

  17. 😀
    Ronnie ‏@68ron

    #PopLeveson Please do not subject us to another herbaceous list, Mr Simon. Are you or are you not going to Scarborough Fair?

  18. Good evening all.

    [The verandah-led solution to AGW. Fabulous!]

    lizzie:

    I believe it was Bob Katter who made a link between AGW and crocodiles on roofs. It must be a Qld thing.

  19. Anyone know more about this?

    [Andrew Watson‏@Andy_Downunda

    #auspol So these bloodthirsty Liberal cretins now want A-G Roxon to waive Statute of Limitations on #Thomson/#HSU. Just disgraceful!!]

  20. [QE will not work.

    The pain will be the same. Implenting QE will just spread the same amount of pain over a longer time period.]

    There is nothing wrong with QE as long as the money can be pulled back when the private sector gets over it’s collective funk.

    The point I was arguing was not the merit. The chucking out of a few right wing governments that don’t understand the difference between a personal budget and the budget of the entity that controls the money supply will fix that. The point I was arguing is the money supply is not limited as it was in 1930. The private sector when it was doing it’s collective funk was hording gold which was limiting the money supply. This time around they can horde as much gold as they want, won’t make a scrap of difference.

  21. [Would you rather read an economic rationalist?]

    deflationite, i dont know what Steve Keen is. But i do know he over cooked his goose and it is now DEAD

  22. WWP:

    I completely agree. It is unconscionable for Barnett to be squirreling away $4.5b when the state is experiencing severe public housing shortages.

    It’s all very well to trumpet a surplus and all this money hidden away into an ether, but if you aren’t simultaneously doing things to improve infrastructure and social capital, the economy is doubly worse off.

  23. [WEST Australian Treasurer Christian Porter says a broken Federal Government promise to help fund native title compensation is “the lowest act”. ]

    But his budget is a responsible hontest act. *rolls eyes*

  24. [And Roosevelt pulled the USA out of the depression by spending, spending on the war really kicked it along.

    Austerity is bullshit.]

    Roosevelt didn’t have the same extraordinary levels of debt that we have. He only had to fix a depression.

    Austerity may be BS, but you can’t fix a debt problem by borrowing more money. Just doesn’t work.

  25. [Mr Porter said WA’s infrastructure needs would be hard to meet due to the lack of federal support.]

    Lucky he isn’t actually doing any infrastructure then, so it wont be his problem labor will have to pick it up after the dishonest scum are kicked out.

  26. I’m so angry confessions they aren’t even maintaining infrastructure adequately let alone building appropriate additional infrastructure. Almost everything they’ve done is with Federal money!!!!!!!!

  27. [I completely agree. It is unconscionable for Barnett to be squirreling away $4.5b when the state is experiencing severe public housing shortages]

    This is the guy who saved a couple of million to halve compensation payments to abused children under state care

  28. WWP:

    Ignoring existing infrastructure needs is going to come back to bite the state govt in the future esp when you factor in all those thousands of extra workers the mining industry is saying it needs.

    Where are the facilities and services to cater for them? Where is the forward planning by Barnett and his lot? They can’t govern, all they can do is point the finger at the federal govt and play the blame game.

    Is there a grown up, functioning Liberal government anywhere in the country at present?

  29. Schnappi:

    Indeed. Someone told me today the state govt is being intransigent on agreement of terms for the native title ruling for Noongar people over the SW of the state. Again Barnett seems to be blaming the federal govt rather than dealing constructively with the claimants and their representatives.

  30. [Is there a grown up, functioning Liberal government anywhere in the country at present?]

    I think Barnett is the closest and he is an absolute disgrace.

    He might have got away with it better and in fact a lot of the broken promises and fee increases might have got hidden by the GFC and the recession the Libs were talking up at the time, but Rudd and Gillard kinda destroyed that cover and left them exposed as the snake oil sales men they are.

    One of the most disappointing things is how often he is prepared to have Western Australia disadvantaged to score a few cheap liberal party points. Very Tony Abbott style at times.

  31. Rossmore:

    Amazingly I’d class Barnett’s lot as more grown up than Abbott’s lot. And that isn’t saying much!

  32. [Roosevelt didn’t have the same extraordinary levels of debt that we have. He only had to fix a depression.

    Austerity may be BS, but you can’t fix a debt problem by borrowing more money. Just doesn’t work.]

    Don’t nations fix debt problems by not paying or going to war?

  33. Out of interest are those in the east, particularly in areas of high unemployment pretty excited about Australia going to Texas to recruit a whole lot of people for the booom? Seems these yanks already have skills, work for next to nothing and go home when we are finished with them.

    No need to train Australians, everybody wins – don’t they.

  34. [One of the most disappointing things is how often he is prepared to have Western Australia disadvantaged to score a few cheap liberal party points.]

    It says a lot about the limitations of his team, most of whom are dud second and third-stringers who’d never make it to the front bench had the Liberals won a majority in their own right.

    I’d rate the WA government as slightly better than Victoria’s.

  35. [Mr Squiggle
    Posted Friday, May 18, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink

    And Roosevelt pulled the USA out of the depression by spending, spending on the war really kicked it along.

    Austerity is bullshit.

    Roosevelt didn’t have the same extraordinary levels of debt that we have. He only had to fix a depression.

    Austerity may be BS, but you can’t fix a debt problem by borrowing more money. Just doesn’t work.]

    Mr Squiggle, Australia has a bond market that ran the risk of having insufficient depth to operate.

    A bond market that has sufficient debt allows one to trade bonds whenever one desires to do so.

    The real question is; what currency is the government debt written in? Getting the Australian government debt written in A$ is one of the reasons why there needs to be a functioning Australian government bond market

    Claiming the Australian government has a high level of debt is bullshit. It may no longer be the case, but there for a while the government was borrow money and placing it overseas just to keep their bond market operating.

    To see this in action take a look at the good old USA, a government with dept that is many multiples of ours as a proportion of GDP and mega multiples in absolute terms, all written in US dollars.

    The private sector does a funk and what happens, they all rush back to buy the US dollars.

    Think a little mate; en entity that can print money is not dealing with a household budget.

  36. Baileau and the Perfect storm in Vic
    ____________________
    With his savage Budget cuts to TAFE colleges, Bailleau has once again unleased a sort of perfect storm with the TAFE bosses claiming that they may have to close their doors or beg in the streets to keep a roof over their heads(not to mention huge fee rises|)

    Many stiudents may have to drop out and try their hands at washing dishes. or scrubbing floors in the great houses of the super -wealthy at Portsea….where thank dog Big Ted has a large compound(like the Kennedy’s!) to which he can escape .from the common folk..

    In addition the rural TAFEs are also aroused and many of the sturdy peasantry whose seemingly studious offspring are being harmed by this… are turning on their erstewhile friends in the Lib- National party who seem a bit gobsmacked by their outrage

    One might suggest that as for the Libs-Nats,,,they had all better stay healthy as Ted’s has only a majority of 45-43 in the Leg..Assembly…and a by-election defeat would send him to the polls ..He wouldn’t want to try his luck in a marginal seat like Box Hill or Bentleigh or Prahran in the present climate ,
    ,so the Lib-Nats better stay healthy and drive with great care .
    a by-election loss would be fatal

  37. [One of the most disappointing things is how often he is prepared to have Western Australia disadvantaged to score a few cheap liberal party points.]
    Relax. That is bipartisan S.O.P. in W.A. since like… 4eva .

  38. confessions

    [Is there a grown up, functioning Liberal government anywhere in the country at present?]

    In all honesty, I think the last grown up functional Liberal administration in Oz was that of Dick Hamer and Lindsay Thompson. Both were men of vision and integrity and, in Lindsay Thompson’s case, of selfless courage.

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