Morgan’s face-to-face polling from last weekend, which has been published a day earlier than usual, shows Labor up slightly off a record low the week before, with their primary vote up a point to 30.5%. The Coalition is also up slightly, by half a point to 46%, with the Greens steady on 12%. A narrowing in the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, from 60.5-39.5 to 59-41, is mostly down to a slight increase in the preference flow to Labor. With regard to the ongoing disparity between this result and the two-party figure derived from preference flows at the last election, which is steady at 55.5-44.5, Morgan has taken to adding the following footnote: “An increasing proportion of Greens voters are indicating a preference for the L-NP ahead of the ALP. At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%”.
The latest instalment of Seat of the Week, like the last two, is brought to you by the letter B.
Seat of the week: Bass
Still famous for the by-election that provided a catalyst for the Coalition’s decision to block supply in 1975, Bass has been an arm wrestle between Labor and Liberal ever since, changing hands at five out of the six elections between 1993 and 2007. The electorate has been little changed since it was created with the state’s division into five single-member electorates in 1903, at all times covering Launceston and the state’s north-eastern corner. Launceston accounts for slightly less than three-quarters of its voters, and has been trending to Labor over the past two elections: between 2004 and 2010, Labor’s two-party vote in Launceston progressed from 47.6% to 58.3%, compared with 46.4% to 54.0% in the remainder of the electorate.
Labor first won Bass when it secured its first ever parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, and lost it six years later when its member Jens Jensen followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party. Jensen retained the seat as a Nationalist at the 1917 election, and it remained with the party after he lost its endorsement in 1919. Labor’s next win came with the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, but it was again lost to a party split when Allan Guy followed Joseph Lyons into the United Australia Party in 1931. Guy was re-elected as the UAP candidate at that year’s election, before being unseated by Labor’s Claude Barnard in 1934.
The next change came when Liberal candidate Bruce Kekwick defeated Barnard when the Menzies government came to power in 1949. The seat returned to the Barnard family fold in 1954 when Kekwick was defeated by Claude’s son Lance, who went on to serve as deputy prime minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1974. The famed 1975 by-election followed Barnard’s mid-term resignation, ostensibly on grounds of ill health, but following a year after he lost the deputy leadership to Jim Cairns. A plunge in the Labor primary vote from 54.0% to 36.5% delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Kevin Newman (the late father of Campbell Newman and husband of Howard government minister Senator Jocelyn Newman), encouraging the Coalition to pursue an early election at all costs.
Bass remained in the Liberal fold for 18 years, with Tasmania bucking the national trend during the Hawke years in the wake of the Franklin dam controversy. Kevin Newman was succeeded in 1990 by Warwick Smith, whose promising career progress was twice stymied by the vagaries of electoral fortune. In 1993 he lost to Labor’s Sylvia Smith by just 40 votes, part of a statewide swing that gave the first indication that election night that things were not going according to script. Warwick Smith recovered the seat in 1996 and served as Family Services Minister in the first term of the Howard government, before the 1998 election produced a second GST backlash and another painfully narrow defeat, this time by 78 votes at the hands of Michelle O’Byrne, a 30-year-old official with the Miscellaneous Workers Union.
O’Byrne held the seat until 2004, when Mark Latham’s restrictive policy on old-growth logging provoked the wrath of Tasmanian unions and Labor politicians, and resulted in John Howard receiving a hero’s reception from timber workers in Launceston in the final week of the campaign. Michael Ferguson gained the seat for the Liberals with a 4.5% swing, but he was defeated after a single term by a 3.6% swing in 2007, and has since pursued a career in state politics. The successful Labor candidate, Jodie Campbell, would likewise serve only one term, announcing she would not stand for re-election as reports emerged her preselection was under threat. Campbell was succeeded by Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley and former manager at Launceston General Hospital. Lyons’ endorsement was determined by the intervention of the party’s national executive, an arrangement which had reportedly been smoothed by the Left not contesting the preselection for Denison. He performed strongly at the election, consolidating Labor’s hold on the seat with a 5.7% swing.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Brigadier Andrew Nikolic, whose military service has included postings in Iraq and Afghanistan, and has more recently worked with the Defence Department’s international policy division. Nikolic had been rated a favourite for preselection in 2010, but he withdrew citing work and family reasons. He made the news in May 2012 when he threatened to send “formal letters of complaint” to the employers of those responsible for a satirical blog post about him, and of anyone who had “liked” the post on Facebook.
[There are probably protocols in place to prevent MP’s emails being accessed by smart IT geeky types.]
DavidWH – I think that the idea that the APH mail system has some magical quality that stops access to it’s contents to members only is an illusion …
ruawake – Your view?
Victoria
It is not what I think it is what Green voters think.
Yes on there are key issues about which Greens voters will be annoyed
1. Asylum seekers
2. Uranium sales
3. US bases
4. Assange
This is blindingly obvious. They will see not real difference between Labor and Lib on these issues
Now there are other issues which will help Greens voters to support Labor
1. Carbon price
2. Economic policy
3. Denatal care
4. NDIS
5. NBN
The issue for Green voters will be if list 2 outweighs list 1
As a third party unaligned with any other party – and one which is likely to continue to hold the balance of power – it is in Milne’s interests to be making concilliatory noises towards anyone who is in government both now and in the future.
[At the 2010 Federal Election only 20% of Greens voters preferenced the L-NP, but recent Morgan Polls have this figure closer to 40%]
I find it hard to believe. Not saying it isn’t true in current polling, but that will not occur on election day.
My say
The affluent educated, politically naive left, left to their own devices can do some very silly things
Some on twitter are saying that Ashby is suing Barnaby Joyce and Bob Carr for comments made.
[shellbell
McClymont did not bother confirming that The AEC found that electoral costs were in order for Thomson. Why not?]
Do you mean before yesterday’s report was released?
Have a look at the twitter feed between the two – she openly accusing and taunting him of lying to FWA about the Fairfax settlement (getting legal advice on the implications of that too) and a statement that he had received no notice of any adverse findings without response.
yes Danny… i had a mate who didnt care who he slept with as long as he could keep adding notches to his belt…
CTar1,
I’m sure ‘sHonour will be having a good look at it. Good fit with Module 3.
[Some on twitter are saying that Ashby is suing Barnaby Joyce and Bob Carr for comments made.]
I wonder whether he announced that before or after speaking with whomever is picking up his legal tab …
Victoria because the AEC only found that no matters in relation to the Electoral Act were breached. They did find that some of the expenditure was for HSU activities but said they had insufficient information to determined how much. Some in the context is the key word. Other authorities will deal with that.
[Some on twitter are saying that Ashby is suing Barnaby Joyce and Bob Carr for comments made.]
He could consolidate his cases and have a former lib, Nat and Labor reps all in court at the same time.
Decided to write to christine re the liberals, i hope she replys,
[IndependentAustralia @independentaus 1m
@Matt_Ros @darinsullivan09 New piece by Peter Wicks is written and we R standing by awaiting confirmation of an important detail from FWA.]
BH – i listened to that and was very impressed – don’t think he’ll take any nonsense from sloan
[yes Danny… i had a mate who didnt care who he slept with as long as he could keep adding notches to his belt…]
LOL. Isn’t that more along the lines of “practice makes perfect”?
victoria – he’s not suing, but he is complaining to the AHRC. I recall he did the same about Vexnews, although I don’t know the details. There was a Samantha Maiden indirect reference to it, which Vexnews confirmed (sort of).
http://www.scribd.com/anthony_mcclellan_3/d/93865295-Letter-to-AHRC-Re-Bob-Carr-and-Barnaby-Joyce-Sent-17-May-2012
Irony is, Victoria, that his words, where had just talked about not blaming the media were spun by bloody Aunty
this from kouk just now – he’s right onto abbott
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
@TonyAbbottMHR I trust Tuffa Workwear are benefitting from the current low interest rates. That must be helping their cash flow.
There is no evidence in Nielsen’s findings to suggest that the preference flow from the Greens (~ 80% to ALP and 20% to L-NP) will be any different to the last election, or the previous two.
Leroy
Thanks for clarification
joe2
I found nothing in Kelty’s speech that was a problem for Labor. His main message was that the Labor movement and the Union need to fight head on. The policy and economic agenda the govt has is worth fighting for.
Ashby has made a complaint to the Australian Human Rights Commission about his “victimisation” by Carr and Joyce.
At this rate all of our politicians will have to step aside while they all sue each other. It will end up worse than Greece 🙂
Bloomberg news continues to chronicle the Murdoch Miseries.
News Corp. Seven Boxes Spirited Away During Pivotal Hacking Week
“Last July when London prosecutors claim Rebekah Brooks was attempting to hide seven boxes of relevant evidence from a police probe, the former top lieutenant of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. was dealing with the crisis point of the phone-hacking scandal under investigation.
“According to the Crown Prosecution Service, Brooks allegedly conspired with Cheryl Carter, her personal assistant, to remove the boxes from the premises of News International, the News Corp. U.K. unit she headed, between Wednesday July 6 and Saturday July 9.”
George@OverTheHill4
RT @_JustinStevens_ BREAKING: James Ashby has filed a formal legal complaint against Bob Carr and Sen Joyce : http://scr.bi/Kf3Jjh
[ I recall he did the same about Vexnews, although I don’t know the details.]
I reckon Vex pulled that story off their site for a while when legal discussions were being made.
[i listened to that and was very impressed – don’t think he’ll take any nonsense from sloan]
LyneLady – It will be interesting so I will watch it.
Thanks Ari, so what do you make of Morgan’s polling re Greens’ preferences, please?
David
I think it depends on just WHO the Greens are.
As I have tried to discuss here before, Greens tend to be middle class “soft issue” types (with increasingly some rural types).
I am not sure that this group are Labor committed and if angry enough will easily switch.
Anecdotal it seems to me very likely that 2 out of every 10 Green voters might shift
[I found nothing in Kelty’s speech that was a problem for Labor. His main message was that the Labor movement and the Union need to fight head on. The policy and economic agenda the govt has is worth fighting for.]
Victoria, where am I saying there are? I trying to point out that the ABC distorted his words.
Wonder if abbott will say carrs vote is toxic,but then so is his and barnabys.
From Harmers’ letter:
[Our client considers that he has a number of other causes of action in respect of the conduct of Mr Carr and Senator Joyce. Our client reserves all of his rights in relation to those causes of action while progressing this complaint to the Commission.]
Keeping all the balls in the air.
Ashby’s lost the plot
joe2
Apologies if you misunderstood. I was referring to the reportage by the msm of Kelty’s speech as a negative for the govt.
DTR that is certainly possible under the current messy political situation.
The more Ashby complains about victimisation, the weaker his case against Slipper, in my opinion. The boy who cried wolf comes to mind.
daretotread
the ‘rural types’ who vote Green tend to be the same inner city elites who vote Green, and who have made the lifestyle change to the bush.
Overwhelmingly Labor supporters – I got a rockstar welcome last campaign, when I gatecrashed one of their fundraisers!
spur212
I reckon Ashby never had it. I suspect it is to give himself some cover, considering how his statement of claim has been amended. I would love to know the counterclaim made by Slipper
[Our client considers that he has a number of other causes of action in respect of the conduct of Mr Carr and Senator Joyce.]
I can’t help but point out that it should’ve been Senator Bob Carr and Senator Joyce. Why give the correct title for one and not the other?
Shellbell seems strange that Ashby would take action against Joyce if the LNP is behind what he is doing. Mind you anything is possible.
DavidWh
[At this rate all of our politicians will have to step aside while they all sue each other. It will end up worse than Greece]
There is an Ancient Greek play which starts off with the actors bemoaning the number of defamation suits prevalent at the time
BH, there’s nothing to made of it, that’s what they’ve found in that poll.
But the fact that the Greens preference flow has been consistent in three real elections is all you need to know.
davidwh, isn’t Ashby a Liberal and Joyce a National? I don’t buy the whole LNP happy families story that’s being peddled to the public just yet.
Danny.. yeah that was his excuse…
davidwh
Smokescreen comes to mind. Anyhow remember Joyce is backing a different candidate for slipper’s seat. Brough is the other candidate with whom Ashby dealt with. Can see why Ashby has gone after Joyce
davidwh
Joyce is backing Peta Simpson for preselection in Fisher against Mal Brough. So it is entirely usual, given that Ashby is said to be working for allies of Brough.
Itep
Precisely what I mean at post 95
Bloomberg news has a strong article on abuse by big business of the US government Medicaid program which provides funding for dental treatment of people who cannot afford dental work.
“Isaac Gagnon stepped off the school bus sobbing last October and opened his mouth to show his mother where it hurt. She saw steel crowns on two of the 4-year-old’s back teeth. A dentist’s statement in his backpack showed he had received two pulpotomies, or baby root canals, along with the crowns and 10 X-rays — all while he was at school. Isaac, who suffers from seizures from a brain injury in infancy, didn’t need the work, according to his mother, Stacey Gagnon. “I was absolutely horrified,” said Gagnon, of Camp Verde, Arizona. “I never gave them permission to drill into my son’s mouth. They did it for profit.”
“Isaac’s case and others like it are under scrutiny by federal lawmakers and state regulators trying to determine whether a popular business model fueled by Wall Street money is soaking taxpayers and having a malign influence on dentistry.
“Isaac’s dentist was dispatched to his school by ReachOut Healthcare America, a dental management services company that’s in the portfolio of Morgan Stanley Private Equity, operates in 22 states and has dealt with 1.5 million patients. Management companies are at the center of a U.S. Senate inquiry, and audits, investigations and civil actions in six states over allegations of unnecessary procedures, low-quality treatment and the unlicensed practice of dentistry.”
Dental Abuse Seen Driven by Private Equity Investments
davidwh
You are from Qld. You should know these things
TLBD
Leveson would be well advised to stick to his original target and to pass off other things peripheral in carefully crafted recommendations to government.
How and when he does this is a matter of judgement that is getting more difficult for him every day – one final coherent report would be the ideal way – but the internal government feeling and public opinion are advancing too quickly for this to be a working strategy.
Parliament is now not in the mood to allow members to refuse to answer questions on the basis that they have to appear in front of Leveson LJ or not – they will assert Parliament’s superior place in regard to members.
If you are a member answer or resign – it’s getting close to that.