Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.

Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.

Seat of the week: Banks

A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.

Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.

Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.

Labor’s member since 1990 has been Daryl Melham, a former barrister and member of the Left faction. Melham rose to the shadow ministry in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander affairs portfolio after the 1996 election defeat, but quit in August 2000 in protest against his party’s decision not to oppose Queensland’s contentious native title laws. He returned after the 2001 election, but voluntarily went to the back bench after the 2004 election saying he preferred to focus on committee work. Since the current government came to power he has served as chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be David Coleman, director of strategy and digital for Nine Entertainment, whom The Australian’s Media Diary describes as a factional moderate and “one of David Gyngell’s closest lieutenants”. Coleman won a local preselection ballot in March with 60 votes against 33 for the candidate from 2010, Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to public attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,261 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks”

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  1. Notice KRudd is enjoying a few days on Philip Adams’ property – must be on leave from his electorate – notice my MP Rob Oakeshott working hard for his electorate again today, and yesterday, and the day before…..

  2. GG

    Whoever gave Jess information so far, obviously is sitting on moar, or she is teasing the information out to draw out the culprits. I reckon the LIb and Nat MPs will be quietly shitting themselves right about now

  4. BK

    Especially as the email sent to Pyne from the Slipper staffer used the standard aph format lastname.firtsname etc.

    Someone is telling fibs.

  11. By withholding information until his parliamentary speech, Thomson clearly wants EVERYONE to hear his version of events, not just the police.

  12. ru

    the only reason i can think for the full name in the send field is that when using an internal network you can type in a persons name and then hit ‘check names’ and it then populates with the full name a la ashby, james (slipper etc…

  13. [Danny, do you need to ask? The bloke is a hate machine]

    No, I think it is only fair to give him the benefit of the doubt.

  16. victoria,

    The story confirming that Pyne did, in fact, contact Ashby has barely created a ripple. If they take much longer they can confirm Pyne organised it all and it will just get swept under the carpet.

  18. I forgot to mention Michael Kirby’s contribution to the Religion Report on RN early this morning. He said wtte he is sickened (and sounded angered) by religion being front and centre in politics at the moment. He said that politicians putting their religion on show is wrong.

    Kirby also said that he himself is a practising Anglican but is partner can’t understand why and is a committed atheist.

  21. MM: yes, it does and that is the answer. If he had typed in the full email addy, the system would have searched to check it was a valid addy and then converted it to the “short” version.

    Mind you, it does NOT explain why Pyne sought Ashby’s email addy via someone else when all he needed to do was to look up the email directory.

    I think a simpler explanation is that he was seeking his PRIVATE email addy, something that he would not be able to ask for on the work addy because there would be a record of it.

  22. [If they take much longer they can confirm Pyne organised it all and it will just get swept under the carpet.]

    SK, who is “they” in your comment?

  23. Morgan face to face

    Respondent allocated preferences: ALP 41 (+1.5) L/NP 59 (-1.5)

    2010 Election Preferences: ALP 44.5 (0) L/NP 55.5 (0)

    Primary Vote: ALP 30.5 (+1) L/NP 46 (+0.5) Greens 12 (0) Others/Independents 11.5 (-1.5)

    Think Will Win: ALP 24 (+4.5), L/NP 72.5 (-5.5)

    Country heading in the right direction: Right Direction 45 (+6), Wrong Direction 39.5 (-8.5)

    Morgan government confidence rating: 105.5 (+14.5)

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4779/

  24. Rua:

    I think you’re onto something, though maybe not. It looks as if Pyne received the info re Ashby’s email address at 11.02pm after requesting it at 11.01pm. This latest one was sent to Ashby at 11.03pm and replied to at 11.32pm.

    The lag between the last two can be explained by Slipper returning and 11.32 being the first time Ashby could reply to Pyne. But it does look as if Pyne sent his email to Ashby as soon as he got the email address.

    Something fishy there, though. Pyne’s email is certainly an answer to something. He’d be able to answer that – if he can recall that is…

  28. [gaff. i cant see twitpics at work… what is the pick of?]

    Division 137 – False or misleading information or documents.

    It sets out how it can be breached and stipulates a penalty of Imprisonment for 12 months.

  31. [MM: yes, it does and that is the answer. If he had typed in the full email addy, the system would have searched to check it was a valid addy and then converted it to the “short” version.]

    No they run an exchange server. If Pyne typed in the standard address it would stay the same.

  32. In “Outlook” if Pyne had added Ashby to his email address book he can put in any name in the “Display name” which will then come up instead of the actual address.

  34. Electoral fact of the day. In 2010, Lingiari’s remote mobile polling booths swung 28.1% to the CLP, but the fixed booths (Alice Springs, Tennant Creek, Catherine, Humpty Doo) swung 3.0% to Labor. In 2007, the mobile booths swung 8.9% to the Labor and the fixed booths swung 0.5% to the CLP.

  36. [Whoever gave Jess information so far, obviously is sitting on moar, or she is teasing the information out to draw out the culprits. I reckon the LIb and Nat MPs will be quietly shitting themselves right about now]

    victoria – have you known, since about 1998, for anything related to the Coalition to be a hit on them. They only did themselves in with Workchoices because so many people were hurt by it and the YRAW campaign got a fair bit of attention wherever it went.

    Nothing with a whiff of scandal, lying or scuttlebuck ever lays a finger on them and this won’t either. Abbott and cohorts are untouchable before the end of 2013 and I doubt the MSM will be any braver in tackling them after that either.

    Bilson on Agenda this morning virtually laughed it off – ergo, absolutely nothing all day. It’s done and dusted unless something hugely MOAR comes out. Dribs and drabs won’t do it against this lot.

  38. Lynchpin,

    “They” is whoever is sitting on the emails. The obviously have several incriminating emails. And as others have noted here the email indicates there is at least one more.

  41. [gaff. and is that directed at Kate or Thomson?]

    Given that Thomson is a lawyer i presume he would understand 137 and i believe the lady is the journo that is heaping muck on Thompson and Peter Slipper i would assume the tweeter is advising her that she may be sticking her chin out a bit too far.

  42. Lyne Lady – Oakey very noticeable indeed. He’s working is butt off with all areas of the electorate and getting some airtime as well.

    Lots of Labor blokes doing the same in their electorates as well by a quick check of their websites and twitter pages. They want a Labor Govt. re-elected.

  44. The AEC 20 or so page document on the FWA report re’ reporting obligations Mr Thomson might have under the Electoral Act is interesting.

    I’d guess that the AEC felt that consulting the Australian Government Solicitor (AGS) on this might not be the ‘way to go’ as AGS were the lawyers advising FWA in the ’embattled HSU’ investigation. Finding other lawyers who could give expert and quick advice on the Electoral Act would be problematical.

    Produced and delivered ‘in-house’, I’d say.

    (The final FWA Report itself may also have been produced with limited external advice from AGS due to the Oppositions efforts at Senate Estimates and generally in the Parliament and press.)

    Successful intimidation – a standard opposition (of all types) practice and when executed well no consideration of truth or justice is required.

  45. [Do you think Slipper is going to let the culprits get away with bringing him down?]

    Depends whether there is definite evidence not hearsay. We’ll see what goes after the Directions Hearing but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it dropped. After all, what kind of case is left … humiliation of a 33yr old …. pleeeezzee!!

  46. BH

    If the case is dropped. Big victory for Slipper. He will be back in chair and he still can ping those who tried to bring him down. Slipper knows all about grubby politics

  48. Gaffhook

    Apparently Thomson’s accused of giving misleading information in regards to his defamation case against Fairfax.

    I think he was giving McClymont advise in regards to this

  49. Re: the Fibs tactic of trying to get Thompson to speak in Parliament. Wouldn’t they have been hoping he’d mislead?

  50. [DL as per my 3218.

    so… was the private email address supplied?]

    We don’t know as yet. We know that information was sought by Pyne and supplied
    by the other Slipper staffer, but we don’t know WHAT information was given. I suspect that will be the next revelation.

    It seems to me that any time some LNP person nails their colours to the mast on a particular position, out comes another piece of evidence to call them a liar.

    [Why would Pyne need Ashby’s private email address?]

    Well, if you are of the opinion that Pyne was helping him cook up the case against Slipper then obviously you want to keep it away from official channels.

    [If Pyne typed in the standard address it would stay the same.]

    Are you sure, Rua? Because that has not been my experience.

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