Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.

Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.

Seat of the week: Banks

A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.

Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.

Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.

Labor’s member since 1990 has been Daryl Melham, a former barrister and member of the Left faction. Melham rose to the shadow ministry in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander affairs portfolio after the 1996 election defeat, but quit in August 2000 in protest against his party’s decision not to oppose Queensland’s contentious native title laws. He returned after the 2001 election, but voluntarily went to the back bench after the 2004 election saying he preferred to focus on committee work. Since the current government came to power he has served as chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be David Coleman, director of strategy and digital for Nine Entertainment, whom The Australian’s Media Diary describes as a factional moderate and “one of David Gyngell’s closest lieutenants”. Coleman won a local preselection ballot in March with 60 votes against 33 for the candidate from 2010, Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to public attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,261 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks”

Comments Page 62 of 66
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  1. [Regarding forrests and trees, often on PB people see forrests where all there are are some freshly planted saplings. You need to be patient and see how many of the saplings grow.]

    Considering the IPA/Coalition’s attitude to the environment you’ll forgive us for throwing around a bit of manure now and then.

    We’re all about growth here.

  6. Re Thomson’s spoofing defence. My understanding is that if that was what happened then there shouldn’t be any record of the call in his phone records as the call came from another phone. Spoofing only spoofs the caller ID seen by the person called and can’t be used to fool the telephone company’s records of somebody’s phone not actually in the call (Thomson).

  9. [Stephen clements ‏@supercededman1
    @randlight hi, Mari. If media were consistent with approach to scandals Pyne wld already be history. Instead we have to rely on social media]

  13. [a bit of bull dung is good for the saplings]

    And we seem to have a reliable supply of that from both sides of the house for the time being.

  14. [Externallylaws @externallylaws 10m
    RT @davrosz: Hearing what may be some big news coming from the FWA…. still unconfirmed. MOAR on Lawler & Jackson coming up on IA tonight.]

  15. In my Inbox

    This week we found out that Kuruvilla George, the Deputy Chief Psychiatrist of Victoria, joined the anti-gay group Doctors for the Family and made a public submission that marriage equality would be harmful to Australia’s children.

    Doctors for the Family, and George’s statement, have been condemned by Australia’s peak medical bodies, the Australian Medical Association and the Australia New Zealand Psychiatric Association. George is supposed to be responsible for the mental health care of the citizens of Victoria, but every reputable study of children raised in same-sex families shows that the greatest suffering these kids face is from prejudice – the kind of prejudice being peddled by George and Doctors for the Family. Comments like theirs do real harm to children.

    This abuse of his public position has already forced George to resign from the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission, but amazingly he’s still hanging on to his other public post. George’s boss, Premier Baillieu, has the authority to dismiss George and make a statement that Victoria’s government does not accept this harmful and irresponsible position.

    Will you tell Ted Baillieu to remove Kuruvilla George?

    http://www.allout.org/TellTed

    Just this last week, US President Obama bravely affirmed a commitment to marriage equality. The leaders of Australia’s two oldest political parties, Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, both refuse to acknowledge the worth and equality of same-sex relationships – despite the value they claim to place on all Australian families.

    Premier Baillieu can take a stand. He can set an example for every level of government and send a message to Australians that is loud and clear: Professor George’s comments are a betrayal of his public position, and unacceptable.

    We know that Professor George’s comments cause hurt to kids and families. Premier Baillieu knows it too – and he can stop it.

    http://www.allout.org/TellTed

    Thanks for going All Out with us.

    Best,

    Andre, Guillaume, Hayley, Jasmin, Jeremy, Michael, Tile and Wesley

    SOURCES:

    Doctors group says heterosexual marriage is better for kids
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-13/doctors-say-heterosexual-marriage-better-for-kids/4008452

    Gay parents ‘no disadvantage’
    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1650249/Gay-parents-no-disadvantage

    Doctors for the Family submission (number 98)
    http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate_Committees?url=legcon_ctte/marriage_equality_2012/submissions.htm

    All Out is bringing people together in every corner of the planet and of every identity – lesbian, gay, straight, bisexual, transgender and all that’s between and beyond – to build a world in which everyone can live freely and be embraced for who they are.

    Our mailing address is:
    Purpose Foundation
    224 Centre St
    New York, NY 10013

    Copyright © 2012 AllOut.org, All rights reserved.

  16. This coverage sounds good
    [Mr Shorten said unions should not listen to conservative commentators who were now regularly saying that the only way to make Australian workplaces more competitive was by cutting wages and conditions.

    “Conservatives sell … this myth that our workers can’t compete … unless we slavishly imitate the {work practices} of Third World nations,” Mr Shorten said.

    Mr Shorten also passionately sold the achievements of the Labor Government over the last five years, saying they had made accomplishments that should not be downplayed.
    These included the National Broadband Network – “Why should our businesses and workers have to drive on 60km/h roads when the rest of the world has the equivalent of 100km/h roads?”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/conservatives-want-third-world-australia-shorten-20120517-1ysa3.html#ixzz1v5cEddhV

    Does anyone have a link to the actual Shorten speech; seems good?

  17. Laocoon

    The speech was good. Either there will be a link at the ACTU Conference of from various media that covered it. ABC should have some as it covered Mr Shorten’s speech live.

  20. David Donovan‏@davrosz

    Hearing what may be some big news coming from the FWA…. still unconfirmed. MOAR on Lawler & Jackson coming up on IA tonight

  21. Laocoon and victoria

    While you waiting just catch up on news updates ABC 24 is running it at the top of their bulletins.

  23. [The Finnigans@2724
    Blood oath – ABC Breakfast TV was appalling this morn.

    What they got from Kelty’s speech, the scrolling text at the bottom of the screen, was distilled to – “Labor should stop lying” and “Not media’s fault that Labor can’t sell message”]

    I heard this also on ABC News this morning. Barry Cassidy ran with the same ‘stop the lying’ theme that Kelty had supposedly said, on Faine, in his political roundup, this morning.

    Did Kelty say such a thing or was he verballed?

  26. Kelty said Labor should tell the truth which is not the same as saying Labor should stop lying although I suspect that if Abbott said “I have to start telling the truth” then Labor people would interpret that as Abbott saying “I must stop lying”.

    Kelty did say Labor has to stop blaming the media and the opposition for opposing.

    Having said that Kelty also said much more which was at least as important as what is being highlighted.

  28. Excerpt from Bill Kely’s at the ACTU Congress in Sydney yesterday.

    [He said it is too easy to blame poor polling on the media and the Opposition.

    “I’ve got to be frank: it’s too easy to blame the media, too easy to blame the playthings of politics.

    “And there’s no purpose blaming the Opposition for doing what after all you would expect them to do, and that’s to beat you.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-17/kelty-points-finger-at-labor-amid-union-woes/4015988

    Wise words. One wonders if some on this blog would take heed of his words. However I wouldnt be holding my breath.

  31. @Gaus/3076

    Ok how many stuff ups that the media reported over Opposition that had no effect on the polling?

    Including their $10 billion hole and their $70 billion hole, and their claim of $50 billion for NBN? or was it $70 billion ?

  32. It would be pretty ironical if Bill called on all to ‘not blame the media’, if they are ‘not getting the message out’, to have what he said, distorted by the National Broadcaster.

  33. Is the speechless Mr Pyne the same Mr Pyne who was patrolling the hallways of the House, with his little mate Mr Hockey, bravely taunting the Prime Minister?

    Are we talking man of courage or gutless twerp here?

  35. Gauss

    The real nub of kelty’s speech as reported seems to be this:

    [“It is the collective responsibility where the party, where unions stand up and say again, what sort of country they want, that is where we have to be,”]

    I think Swan in particular has been leading this charge of late. And it is why the PM’s courage and unflappability are so important in the current toxic environment.

  36. [One wonders if some on this blog would take heed of his words. However I wouldn’t be holding my breath.]

    Told you so. This type of thing reminds me of the petulant 5 year old who broke the neighbour’s window and blamed it on the man who ran away.

    circa 2007 anyone. Government’s should be held to account.

  37. So, we have Mr Abbott claiming ownership of the NDIS and Mr Hockey not wanting to ‘…gild the lily…’ on the NDIS. Who was talking about lilies? Who was talking about gilding anything? The NDIS is a public policy.

    Is the Coalition is or is the Coalition Isn’t on the NDIS?

    Here we have yet another category of Coalition policy settings: ‘the LOTO yes/Shadow Treasurer maybe setting.’

    Wonder when the peeps are really gunna wake up to this sort of double speak?

  41. [Are we talking man of courage or gutless twerp here?]

    Will he take the title of “the New Sir Wobin” from :monkey:??

  42. Mr Kelty: yet more Labor feather duster in Ms Gillard’s saddle bags.

    All the lingering old Labor farts could always try something new: shutting up for a month or two.

  43. Boerwar
    [Are we talking man of courage or gutless twerp here?]
    If only my exam questions were all this easy.

  44. Gauss

    [Government’s should be held to account.]

    That is of course true. But accounting relies on facts and figures. I am happy for a factual accounting of this Govt any time.

  47. davidwh

    [although I suspect that if Abbott said “I have to start telling the truth” then Labor people would interpret that as Abbott saying “I must stop lying”.]
    What do you expect when the man himself warned us that unless it is in writing you cannot trust what he says to be truthful.

  50. BW

    [Here we have yet another category of Coalition policy settings: ‘the LOTO yes/Shadow Treasurer maybe setting.’]

    Dog whistling to different constituents.

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