Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.

Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.

Seat of the week: Banks

A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.

Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.

Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.

Labor’s member since 1990 has been Daryl Melham, a former barrister and member of the Left faction. Melham rose to the shadow ministry in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander affairs portfolio after the 1996 election defeat, but quit in August 2000 in protest against his party’s decision not to oppose Queensland’s contentious native title laws. He returned after the 2001 election, but voluntarily went to the back bench after the 2004 election saying he preferred to focus on committee work. Since the current government came to power he has served as chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be David Coleman, director of strategy and digital for Nine Entertainment, whom The Australian’s Media Diary describes as a factional moderate and “one of David Gyngell’s closest lieutenants”. Coleman won a local preselection ballot in March with 60 votes against 33 for the candidate from 2010, Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to public attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,261 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Banks”

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  1. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Tuesday, May 15, 2012 at 12:18 am | Permalink
    New2this,
    Back off Kezza please. The chips are there for damn good reasons.]
    When I start telling you what to do, puff, then you can start telling me what to do.
    Until then, back off yourself.

  2. [Coincidence… 18 months ago…]

    So the Carbon Price which becomes an ETS in 3 years, which was ALP policy at the last 2 elections, and Liberal policy at the 2007 election, really had nothing to do with it.

    Did it?

  6. [When I start telling you what to do, puff, then you can start telling me what to do.
    Until then, back off yourself.]

    Wasn’t Puff actually defending you?

  7. New2this
    You know that is a crock. If you are not far enough up the chain to know the real reasons the company is going bust, don’t just grab coalition slogans to fill the void. Just be glad the ALP is in power. You might have a chance at retraining. With all due respects, 47 is a good time to try something new.

  9. And, now the extravaganza

    It was the carbon tax wot dun it.

    And it hasn’t even started.

    Ya gotta luv the little creeps.
    Dontcha.

    And let’s not forget the “knifing”

    That made manufacturing go down the drain.

  14. Drake
    Actually I was, in a roundabout way. Showson has been coming here with humorous trivia for a while so I defended guytaur in the same tone, but without the capitals.

  19. Puff New2this is full of it, I’ve already called it at my first reply post 😎

    Hey New2this, do you know which Party wants to introduce a real great big new tax 6.6 times bigger than the carbon scheme at the next election which will place pressure on jobs?

    And compensation given for that great big new tax will only be given if you have a baby?

    I will give you a clue – :mrgreen:

  21. Puff

    [Drake
    Actually I was, in a roundabout way. Showson has been coming here with humorous trivia for a while so I defended guytaur in the same tone, but without the capitals.]

    Excuse me while I puke.

    I was not addressing Shows or guytaur.

    You were defending new2this, thanks very much.
    And I wasn’t.

  22. In Joe Hockey’s speech on entitlements, which you can read in full here:
    http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/in-the-media/files/The%20Age%20of%20Entitlement%20Joe%20Hockey%2017%20April%202012%20.pdf

    He describes Hong Kong’s government debt as “moderate”. Footnote 7 says that gross debt in Hong Kong in 2011 was 33.8%. For some strange reason Joe didn’t think it was necessary to point out that Australia’s gross debt in 2011 was 23.8% (which I guess would qualify as “low”, given that 10% higher counts as “moderate”) of GDP and the IMF estimates it will be just 14.9% by 2017.

  23. Oops now I am confused,
    Tonight I have:
    1)told Showson what to do,
    2)asked New2this not to do something.

    I have not even spoken to you, Kezza and certainly not told you to do anything.

  24. 3.46pm: Politicians have done a “very very bad job standing up for themselves” in explaining why they need to maintain frequent contact with the media, Campbell says.

    He adds that there must be a “proper reckoning” of power and status between media and politicians.

    I haven’t seen anyone ask Tony Abbott to explain himself.

  26. Kezza,
    Exactly where was I ‘defending’ New2this? Perhaps you could point me to the post, please.

  29. Puff

    My turn to apologise
    (not that you had a turn at all)
    I inadvertently put in a punctuation mark where it wasn’t warranted and totally misread your comment. – as in Back off Kezza please, I read as: Back off, Kezza please.

    Bended knee apologies.
    Please accept.

    Is that enough?

  30. DuncanNRoss ‏ @DuncanNRoss
    Oooft! “@skymarkwhite: Campbell says press want openness and transparency from all parts of national life, except themselves #leveson”

    Isn’t that the truth!

  31. I support the Carbon Price N2T. When you say “economy wide” what exactly do you mean?

    [New2This just a Lib troll]

    Yes, N2T does seems to have circumstances that neatly fit into Lib talking points, along with a simplistic take on pricing carbon.

  33. New2this, go to bed.

    All revenue raised regardless of how big the carbon scheme is will be returned to ordinary Australians, trade exposed industries and investment in renewable energy.

    If you don’t get the compensation, guess what? You don’t need it.

    Go tell Clive Palmer to lose weight, he looks like a pig!

    *night* 🙂

  35. 52pm: Newspapers were given a sense of power under Margaret Thatcher, says Campbell, but that changed under John Major.

    He admits that New Labour may have given the media “too much of a sense of their own power and we should have challenged that more

  39. Otiose

    [where are you getting leveson from pls]

    Just google the guardian news,put n your favourites and you get levenson for all media.

  40. Kezza
    It is all ok, I couldn’t separate you from Ginnie for even one night!
    And not too much of the bended knees please, we dragons can get addicted to that stuff. 👿

  41. All revenue raised regardless of how big the carbon scheme is will be returned to ordinary Australians What a croc, what a myth, what a fantasy

  44. New2This

    [When you increase the price of electricity and gas it will creep into every part of the economy.]

    Tell that to all state governments,especially to barnard in wa.how old are you?

  45. The Compo will also “creep into every part of the economy”. The Lib’s on the other hand just plan to take tax revenue and throw it at polluters until somehow we get an emissions reduction as good as the Carbon Price.

  46. 3.59pm: Meanwhile, John Bercow, the Speaker, has effectively ordered Jeremy Hunt to answer questions tabled by MPs about his dealings with News Corporation.

    Potential conflict between Parliament (who want to see submissions to Leveson) and Leveson (who doesn’t want submission made public before he publishes them).

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