GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has strayed from the pack with its latest fornightly federal poll result, with the Coalition holding a relatively moderate lead of 55-45 on two-party preferred compared with 59-41 last time. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up three), 45% for the Coalition (down six) and 12% for the Greens (up one). In contrast to voting intention, the leaders’ ratings are essentially unchanged: Julia Gillard is on 27% approval (down one) and 63% disapproval (steady), and Tony Abbott is on 34% (up one) and 56% (up one). Results for reaction to the budget presumably to follow shortly.
UPDATE: The regular annual Newspoll budget questions have 18% saying it will make them better off and 41% worse off (compared with 11% and 41% last year); 37% saying the Coalition would have done a better job and 42% saying they wouldn’t have (38% and 41% last year); and 37% rating it good for the economy and 37% bad (37% and 32% last year). Newspoll has been asking these questions after each budget since the 1980s, with mean results over that time of 17.2% better off and 34.9% worse off; 29.8% opposition-better and 47.4% opposition-not-better; 42.3% good for the economy and 27.6% bad. With respect to “will the budget leave you better or worse off”, the five most positive results ever recorded (with some distance between fifth from sixth) occurred consecutively from 2004 to 2008. Outside of this golden age, the mean results have been 13.5% better off and 37.9% worse off.
Today’s Essential Research had the two-party preferred at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which welittle changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Seat of the week: Banks
A little over a week ago I promised that my Friday posts would henceforth profile a significant federal electorate, but I was diverted on Friday by the onslaught of budget polling. Today I make good the omission with an overview of the southern Sydney electorate of Banks.
Located on the outer edge of Labor’s inner Sydney heartland, Banks has been held by Labor at all times since its creation in 1949, but over the past few decades the margin has fallen below 2% on three occasions: with the defeat of the Keating government in 1996, when Mark Latham led Labor to defeat in 2004, and – most ominously for Labor – in 2010, when a sharp swing against Labor in Sydney left intact only 1.5% of a 10.4% margin (adjusted for redistribution) from the 2007 election.
Labor’s strength in the electorate is in the suburbs nearer the city in the electorate’s north, from Hurstville through Riverwood to Padstow, which is balanced by strong Liberal support in the waterside suburbs along the Georges River which forms the electorate’s southern boundary, from Blakehurst westwards through Oatley to Padstow Heights. As a knock-on effect from the abolition of Lowe, the redistribution before the 2010 election shifted the electorate substantially eastwards, exchanging areas around Bankstown for the Blakehurst and Hurstville Grove area (from Barton) and Hurstville (from Watson), which cut 1.4% from the Labor margin.
Labor’s member since 1990 has been Daryl Melham, a former barrister and member of the Left faction. Melham rose to the shadow ministry in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander affairs portfolio after the 1996 election defeat, but quit in August 2000 in protest against his party’s decision not to oppose Queensland’s contentious native title laws. He returned after the 2001 election, but voluntarily went to the back bench after the 2004 election saying he preferred to focus on committee work. Since the current government came to power he has served as chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be David Coleman, director of strategy and digital for Nine Entertainment, whom The Australian’s Media Diary describes as a factional moderate and “one of David Gyngell’s closest lieutenants”. Coleman won a local preselection ballot in March with 60 votes against 33 for the candidate from 2010, Ron Delezio, a businessman who came to public attention after his daughter Sophie received horrific injuries in separate accidents in 2003 and 2006.
No, but you are a complete prat. Surely they get something just for their… pratliness??
Anyone else noticed the Coalition policy turnarounds over the last couple of weeks?
Firstly, Malcolm Turnbull has allowed the NBN will probably be completed if the Coalition win the 2013 election.
Secondly, the Coalition have gone further Left than The Greens when it comes to support of the NDIS. Now it’s not good enough!
Those Coalition Focus groups in the country and the cities must be roaring in their ears how much they like them.
Where are the Painful Pavlovian Doggys tonight.
Imagine if it were 40/60. they will be put like the Warewolves howling by the Streets of London
put = out
[Hopefully this poll will quieten down some of the ALP PB doom merchants for a few days. ]
Maate, this is at the to the end of one side of MOE. But I just know the bunch of last polls that pretty closely confirm each other will be seen as all wrong with regard to trend and magnitude, and this MOE trick will be the thing that you cling to as the sun rising.
I feel a bit sorry for you as I know the despair you are going to get hit with when the real situation is revealed as per those other polls. I wonder if those standing on the bow of the Titanic rejoiced as the it raised into the air, thus further from the water.
Have fun.
Now discussing whether Murdoch is a “necessary evil.”
Love it!
Good point BG @45
Look on the bright side TP 😛
Noise train comes out.
Puff TMD
[I don’t think Pyne would resign even if he was caught on camera in the HoR in the wee hours with a same-sex couple of goats and a barrel of olive oil.]
What it it weren’t genyouwine SouthOz olive oil?
The alternative is “necessary obligation”.
Well folks, it seems Gus has gone on Twitter and revealed what the “big rumour” is, so there doesn’t seem to be any point in keeping it a secret here. A lot of you follow Gus on Twitter anyway.
Christopher Pyne had allegedly resigned from his position as Manager Of Opposition Business because of his involvement in #Ashbygate.
So there you have it.
Schnappi@26,
At least bemused won’t be able to drone on all day tomorrow about how Labor must replace Julia Gillard with Kuddly Kevin.
Though I predict he will point to her Disapproval Rating of 63 and say that the ALP would no doubt be even further ahead if she was replaced with he. 😉
Schnappi
No, maybe
“It just am” or “It just be”
Or “It just arrrrgh”
@GeorgeBludger George, Hidden Penny Slouching Joe
Dan,
If that has wheels …
New2This@30,
You forgot brainless.
I think the “It just is” moment could be the defining point of Abbott’s campaign. This could really stick, especially when the PM mocked him so well.
Blair wooed Murdoch.
[Christopher Pyne had allegedly resigned from his position as Manager Of Opposition Business because of his involvement in #Ashbygate.]
Dan, there is MOAR……. Joe Hockey confirmed tonight on #qanda that there is a rumour on Tony Abbott like the sex rumour on Shorten that he denied
[I feel a bit sorry for you as I know the despair you are going to get hit with when the real situation is revealed as per those other polls.]
Why feel sorry for me? I’m usually happy! 🙂
Puff,
Do you have a ref to PM mocking TA?
[I keep hitting refresh on my bank account but alas the compensation never arrives… Oops I forgot I’m not a toothless, one legged, unemployed single father of four who lives anywhere but the north shore…]
You can still get it if you’re a moron. Keep hitting that refresh, I’m shore it will arrive.
No as a married couple with three kids living at home we get no compensation… not a zac.
TP, the best budget ever handed down didn’t have anything to do with it, did it?
PM Julia is on track to make her move as they head to the 1400m mark, not too early, come into it at the 1000m 😎
fiona,
He better bloody resign if it isn’t the good SA cold-pressed in-season virgin olive oil.
PTMD
Arrrgh its the pirates ya know thy be after the 6%
[I feel a bit sorry for you as I know the despair you are going to get hit with when the real situation is revealed as per those other polls.]
ie I don’t like this poll. I like the others. Amazing stuff but predictable.
[No as a married couple with three kids living at home we get no compensation… not a zac.]
And you’re earning?
Paul Keating being quoted at Leveson.
If Craig Thomson is under pressure in regard to his legal fees, wouldn’t there be some ALP members that are either retired or semi-retired lawyers that could help with his defence. They may not be willing to front for him but there are plenty of behind the scenes legal matters that really add to any defence.
[samanthamaiden @samanthamaiden
@chriskkenny Did the Coalition primary go south by 6 points?? Did I read that right ?]
This makes the pain of the past few weeks’ melt somewhat, doesn’t it?
Finns
That’s interesting after it was also discussed on Insiders yesterday. Maybe it’s getting close to being unleashed so they’re trying to pre-empt it.
The scandals will always be MOAR with the LNP 😉
The Pm is starting to look as good as Black Caviar who has won 21 races and never off the bit “Go You Classy Filly”
(At My Age She Aint No Mare.)
Keating quoted by Campbell as saying Murdoch is for Murdoch, one, two three and four! LOL
bluegreen@45,
Um, you appear to have missed the part where this poll improvement has occurred when Rudd has been nowhere to be seen on the political stage, except for making banal cheesy comments on Twitter. I think Labor can fight back without him. And do better than they ever could with a man who suffers from a terminal inability to make up his mind. Or, in other words, lead.
As a married couple we earn less than the single parent Family tax benefit threshold. Go figure…
Puff m’dear,
[He better bloody resign if it isn’t the good SA cold-pressed in-season virgin olive oil.]
I hope to wake up tomorrow to find that that joyous day has arrived.
Meanwhile, I shall seek my cot. Goodnight all, and good luck!
[And you’re earning?]
Enough to buy some energy saving devices by the sound of it.
Testing, testing
[samanthamaiden @samanthamaiden
@chriskkenny Did the Coalition primary go south by 6 points?? Did I read that right ?]
Why do I smell Rebekah Brookes?
No family Tax benefit = no compensation…
Can’t believe Joe Hockey and Julia Gillard are on a unity ticket re: same-sex marriage.
Very disappointing
[No as a married couple with three kids living at home we get no compensation… not a zac.]
Just as well for you New2this, as it only a bribe anyway.
Better off without it. Don’t ya reckon?
New2this
Don’t wihinge. You don’t get Family Tax benefit for a reason.
To be fair C@tmomma,
BG was talking to TP…
Well it’s ok I work in the manufacturing sector about to lose my job… Find out Friday…
I mean
[samanthamaiden @samanthamaiden
@chriskkenny Did the Coalition primary go south by 6 points?? Did I read that right ?]
why would Samantha Maiden have to confirm with Chris Kenny?
Any ideas?
The PJK bit:
i see the fact i dont get Fam Tax Ben A or B as a good thing! means i must doing ok.
dry your eyes precious.
Strange that the Evan Parsons Project hasn’t been in tonight to let us know how Labor is doomed.
New2this
If you are 30 or less of age be glad Hockey is not your Treasurer. You would get no benefit to support you while you look for work. That is entitlement mentality.